shodson's Trading Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


shodson's Trading Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:97,613 / 761
Created: by shodson Attachments:947

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 947  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

shodson's Trading Journal

  #611 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4 / TSII / Oanda
Broker/Data: dbfx, ibfx
Favorite Futures: fx
 
Posts: 61 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 25 given, 42 received

Don't sweat it. There's a very nasty battle going on right now with Euro. SNB, BOJ and BOC have all pledged allegiance (massive buying on dips), but I think some other large institutions sense weakness and have other plans. Wild swings in both directions.

Reply With Quote
 
  #612 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Resurrected

Long time, no write!

Well, trading-wise February was my worst month in a while. I stopped subscribing to MTG for reasons previously mentioned. The founders there were puzzled and were nice enough to contact me personally but I assured them that it was nothing against them or their service, just that the lots of small wins and a few large losses approach, while profitable in the long run, is not amenable to my psychological profile. Losing a whole month's profits in 1 day is just too damaging for me.

So I just did occasional discretionary trend-retracement trades here and there if I had some time, most of which were not profitable, most based on some setups I've been researching and playing with but have not backtested, but the lack of focus and just trying to "get in" a trade here and there just doesn't work. I continue to study markets and strategies and focusing my energies on more backtesting and automation.

FWIW I did give a webinar, which was fun, but it didn't help my trading P&L



In the name of full disclosure I will go back and look up my trades and post them here, just not now, too busy with some other things. I just wanted to check in.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #613 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Prepare to launch...


I am now SIMming a new strategy that I discovered last year but have been enhancing and adapting to different markets. It tests really well with just 1 parameter optimization on ES, TF and CL. In fact the 1 parameter I do optimize is not that important. It is profitable with just about any parameter setting, and the win rates are almost the same across all settings, it's just a parameter for calculating targets and stops so the PF can vary between 1.53 and 1.61, for example in TF, with just about any set of 10 values. So I'm not too afraid of being curve-fitted. Also, all entries are with limit orders, so I'm not too worried about fill behavior or slippage in comparing backtested results vs a real-time market. Also, risk/reward is 1.0, so I'm not goofing around scalping small targets with huge stop loss levels. Eventually I'd like to add some more sophisticated stop movement elements to it, but v1.0 will be good enough for me to go live with. Testing has shown that more favorable risk/reward ratios hurt overall profitability, and 1.0 performs the best.

I'm glad I'm SIMming first because it took a TF trade at 4:40 this morning, and it's supposed to only trade RTH so the SIMming is more about testing and debugging the ATS in a live market to make sure it's working correctly and according to expectations. I'll probably SIM for a week or two while I keep working on it, and SIM newer versions until I get it to where I'd like it to be.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-equity-curve.png   shodson's Trading Journal-optimization.png  

Last edited by shodson; March 2nd, 2011 at 01:45 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #614 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 470 given, 778 received


shodson View Post
Long time, no write!

Well, trading-wise February was my worst month in a while. I stopped subscribing to MTG for reasons previously mentioned. The founders there were puzzled and were nice enough to contact me personally but I assured them that it was nothing against them or their service, just that the lots of small wins and a few large losses approach, while profitable in the long run, is not amenable to my psychological profile. Losing a whole month's profits in 1 day is just too damaging for me.

Hi I can sympathise completely with you for giving up on trading those gaps. You remember I was talking about adapting the idea to trade currencies on the Sunday evening / Monday open? I've been backtesting and it's a slow process and I'm not finished yet, but I'm convinced your idea for entering on a limit when the market is moving away from the gap will come up trumps. I found for the currencies that the volatility in 2008 / 2009 destroys the backtest results I've got so far and I'm trying to find the best way to filter out the high volatility - and since I'm trading lots of currency pairs the only way I can see of doing it is to hard code a maximum value for the ATR into an if statement.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
  #615 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Weekly SIM results

ATS SIM results on CL and TF, right in-line with testing results, not every week will be this good/bad, but at least they're in-line. Actually, 2 winning trades were bugs, so I actually probably would have had a small loss instead of a profit this week, so I'm not patting myself on the back. Also, I didn't trade ES, which I will add next week and tests well too but with a few different considerations, primarily that it works best if you trade it only in the mornings.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-sim-results-week1.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #616 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 470 given, 778 received


Adamus View Post
Hi I can sympathise completely with you for giving up on trading those gaps. You remember I was talking about adapting the idea to trade currencies on the Sunday evening / Monday open? I've been backtesting and it's a slow process and I'm not finished yet, but I'm convinced your idea for entering on a limit when the market is moving away from the gap will come up trumps. I found for the currencies that the volatility in 2008 / 2009 destroys the backtest results I've got so far and I'm trying to find the best way to filter out the high volatility - and since I'm trading lots of currency pairs the only way I can see of doing it is to hard code a maximum value for the ATR into an if statement.

Forgot to get to the point - if you use a limit order to enter far away from the gap, you reduce the size of the losses and increase the size of the winners. But you told me that. You didn't want to experiment with that? Obviously you don't get as many winners.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Reply With Quote
 
  #617 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


Adamus View Post
Forgot to get to the point - if you use a limit order to enter far away from the gap, you reduce the size of the losses and increase the size of the winners. But you told me that. You didn't want to experiment with that? Obviously you don't get as many winners.

I am, but I'd rather test it in the context of MTG probabilities, which I don't subscribe to anymore, so for now I'm not really pursuing that.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #618 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,276 received


shodson View Post
ATS SIM results on CL and TF, right in-line with testing results, not every week will be this good/bad, but at least they're in-line. Actually, 2 winning trades were bugs, so I actually probably would have had a small loss instead of a profit this week, so I'm not patting myself on the back. Also, I didn't trade ES, which I will add next week and tests well too but with a few different considerations, primarily that it works best if you trade it only in the mornings.

I don't know the specifics of your strategy, but if you are backtesting on NinjaTrader, I hope you are familiar with the various backtesting isuues with NT, which may give very different results when you go live.

Reply With Quote
 
  #619 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


monpere View Post
I don't know the specifics of your strategy, but if you are backtesting on NinjaTrader, I hope you are familiar with the various backtesting isuues with NT, which may give very different results when you go live.

Yep, I think I've mitigated those problems, you tell me if I missed something.

1) Intra-bar limitations: while I may test on 5, 10, 15 or 20min bars, for backtesting I always have a lower timeframe bar, like a 1min or a 1tick bar, which I use to track entries, targets and stops so and large bar that could be either a winner or a loser, depending on where price went first, will be more acurately represented with a shorter time-frame bar in the strategy.
2) Slippage: I enter and exit with limit orders, so I feel my back-tested entries are good, but a target that is hit to the tick, and no further, then turns around for a loser might not be represented in backtesting, but these sorts of 1-tick wonder trades are not common.
3) Bar type: I only use minute bars, no range, tick, x-Renko, just simple minute bars, so I feel it is more realistic.

What else did I miss?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
  #620 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

LIVE!


Monday, March 7th, 2011 - I went live with my ATS today and added ES, with good overall results.

ES: -16 ticks
TF: -2 ticks (2 trades, -18 and +16)

CL: +53 ticks


Interestingly, my 2nd TF trade (+16 winner) hit my target to the tick, I was very fortunate to be filled on that target because price turned around and would have stopped me out.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-3-7-2011-11-29-52-am.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to shodson for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > shodson's Trading Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
shodson's Trade Strategy Ideas shodson Elite Automated Trading 11 June 10th, 2011 01:58 PM
shodson's MetaTrader journey shodson MetaQuotes MetaTrader MQL Programming 5 August 18th, 2010 07:17 PM
Shodson HHLLReversal vegasfoster NinjaTrader 2 June 15th, 2010 05:33 AM
J's Trading Journal jinhar Trading Journals 43 April 23rd, 2010 08:15 AM
AR01 Price Area Journal (Not a trading journal) AR01 Emini Index Futures Trading 69 April 2nd, 2010 09:01 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:40 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-18 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.209.109