shodson's Trading Journal

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Tmanbone

This is exactly what worries me about trading the gaps per John Carter. I don't want to jump the gun here but I think I see an influence here, I just sped read to get caught up. I'm curious if you were able to figure out anything that could have given the gap and go away or is this just one gap in the sea of probabilities that just didn't work? I've been following your trading for a couple of weeks now but haven't read your entire thread. I'm interested in learning what you have figured out thus far. I'll find the time to get caught up with what you are doing. I appreciate you. Thank you,

While John Carter is nice and all, I'm more influenced by statistical probabilities published each day at MasterTheGap.

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I see... well then you did everything right.

As per my prior post, i suggest you look at non-time based bars to get better entry on your discretionary trades.

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Thursday, January 13th, 2011 - Stopped out on a YM extended target trade, right near the absolute lows of the day.

YM: -41 ticks

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Ugh, sorry for your loss. I know you have your method.... but man I would have never held on as long as you did on that long. All that proves is that everyone is only capable of trading their own method, and not someone elses. Hell some people can't even trade their own!

Mike

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Almost there, i know its tough.

I do remember reading that if the gap is not filled within the first hour, you need to exit, since its highly unlikely for it to fill once that time has passed.
Have you tested that reasoning out?

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Friday, January 14th, 2011 - No good gap setups, but the first-hour guides had a breakout high setup confirmed across 3 markets, so I bought a pullback in TF. I tried to do the same in ES but it doesn't tend to pullback as much so I just got the TF entry. I set up an ATM with a progressive trailing stop near the target and I got some strange errors.

TF: +20 ticks

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Michael.H

Almost there, i know its tough.

I do remember reading that if the gap is not filled within the first hour, you need to exit, since its highly unlikely for it to fill once that time has passed.
Have you tested that reasoning out?

Most gaps do tend to fill early, but not always, especially large gaps.

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Positive expectancy.

I shared this with someone earlier, I thought I'd post it here too. I think it also has a lot to do with the need to feel right often vs the thrill of hitting occasional "home runs" even if you only get winning trades 30% of the time. They can both work, it just depends on your psychological needs.

See this video, starting at minute 11:00, it's just a couple of minutes.

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Was up late and watching the London open on Bloomberg so I decided to take a Sharky-inspired pullback on 6E ahead of the London open. Too bad it was on SIM as it yielded +20 ticks.

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Wednesday, January 19th, 2011 - Yesterday many MTG members got a decent sized gap winner, but I passed because fading the gap based on Friday's close on a Tuesday (because Monday was MLK day) seems a little sketchier. As for today, there were no likeable gap setup, which was good as they would have been stopped out.

Instead I focused on scalping pullbacks in a trend using a couple of different methods with good results ahead of my busy work day.

CL: +32 ticks
6E: +20 ticks

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