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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #551 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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Failed hammer

I thought I saw a hammer reversal signal, liked the risk/reward, it just didn't work out.

TF: -13 ticks

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  #552 (permalink)
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Thank you.

Hello Shodson, First of all I don't know you and have never met you but I have been a member of Big Mike's for awhile and spend alot of time reading journals and everything else here on Big Mikes. And after extensive research and sorting through some of the so called Elite or top Contributors on here who all claim to have really figured out trading or are rich,trading 10,20 contracts or have a website to promote. None not a single one does what you do you put it all out there for everyone to see, good, bad,even your statements! Not that I need or wan't to see statements but it atleast shows your not trying to hide behind your computer putting on a show for everyone else. Which I believe most of them are. You have been struggling just like all of us on here. Heck a couple of them say there really profitable, its simple to trade and only use price action but nothing to back it up, and doing so great but then they have a regular job or a website. I really just can connect with what you have going on here and always look forward to your daily posts. Keep up the hard work and it will pay off.

Incometrade

Last edited by incometrade; January 4th, 2011 at 09:33 PM.
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  #553 (permalink)
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Exactly, that was my point many posts ago! Nobody else is doing it. Keep it up!

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  #554 (permalink)
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Tuesday night quarterbacking


shodson View Post
I thought I saw a hammer reversal signal, liked the risk/reward, it just didn't work out

In hindsight, I guess I should have waited for a 3rd push, but many moves never get up to 3 pushes, but this one did.

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It would be nice to be able to determine earlier on if it's going to be a trend day (enter retracements) or not (look for S/R). Any ideas? It seems like Tues and Thursdays tend to trend more than other days. Or, since the London session had a much narrower range than yesterday's NY session, consolidation happened overnight and the NY session was due to break out one way or another ( ? ) Just some ideas...

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  #555 (permalink)
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Wednesday, January 5th, 2011 - Took 2 gap trades, on ES and YM. Both opened lower so we would want to go long. However, the YM went short because I had Monday's closing price plugged in, not Tuesday's, so it went short. I was up watching it shortly after the entry and realized the mistake and I cancelled the trade for -8 ticks. If it had gone long like it should have it would have been a nice winner, along with the ES winner.

Tried to enter buy a breakout on a retrace, missed the first retrace because I was busy driving to work, ran up without me.

ES: +13 ticks
YM: -8 ticks


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Last edited by shodson; January 5th, 2011 at 01:08 PM.
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  #556 (permalink)
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incometrade View Post
Hello Shodson, First of all I don't know you and have never met you but I have been a member of Big Mike's for awhile and spend alot of time reading journals and everything else here on Big Mikes. And after extensive research and sorting through some of the so called Elite or top Contributors on here who all claim to have really figured out trading or are rich,trading 10,20 contracts or have a website to promote. None not a single one does what you do you put it all out there for everyone to see, good, bad,even your statements! Not that I need or wan't to see statements but it atleast shows your not trying to hide behind your computer putting on a show for everyone else. Which I believe most of them are. You have been struggling just like all of us on here. Heck a couple of them say there really profitable, its simple to trade and only use price action but nothing to back it up, and doing so great but then they have a regular job or a website. I really just can connect with what you have going on here and always look forward to your daily posts. Keep up the hard work and it will pay off.

Thanks @incometrade, it's hard to know who's for real and who's just read a John Carter book and likes flinging advice at people to sound smart. I try not to second-guess people because if they are trying to over-represent themselves as something they are not then I guess a forum like this serves their needs, but I take any advice with a grain of salt and like to verify it with my own practice and experience. After a while you can tell who knows what they're talking about and who's blowing smoke. I appreciate the help of those that are truly trying to help, and the encouragement of those cheering me on!


Last edited by shodson; January 5th, 2011 at 06:26 PM.
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  #557 (permalink)
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First hour range analysis

Yesterday I did some analysis of MTG's first-hour guides. One thing they don't take into account is range size, which I think is important. It seems that if the first hour range is very large then we're less likely to get much more range expansion for a breakout.

In this spreadsheet I was looking at FH range relative to the 5-day ATR. Initial reviews tend to favor FH ranges that are 45-55% of the 5-day ATR. I also thought about considering correlation of winning breakouts following days where range expanded or contracted. Nothing conclusive yet. I'd like to study FH range relative to the previous day's range as well, not just the 5 day ATR.

A "pW" or "pL" is a partial win/loss, where the position was closed at the end of the day without hitting it's target or stop. A winner/loser is a 4pt move for or against me.

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Last edited by shodson; January 5th, 2011 at 06:28 PM.
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Anatomy of a price-action trade

Here's a trade I took. See screenshots for all of the exciting drama and at-the-moment thought process.

TF: +16 ticks

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  #559 (permalink)
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Nice Play by Play!

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shodson View Post
Here's a trade I took. See screenshots for all of the exciting drama and at-the-moment thought process.

TF: +16 ticks

While I wasn't watching it during the setup, I later realized I had TICK divergence in my favor as well.

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