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shodson's Trading Journal

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  #531 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
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I think its more than 1%.

I also think that most people who trade believe that you gotta do 10 round trips a day. I've said this before, in terms of risk reward, you only get 1-2 good trades a day, THATS IT. If odds of making money are 50%, but your winners are bigger, you will make money. Meaning your trigger could have the same probability as a coin flip.

When i was learning to trade, the person mentoring me made me flip a coin, heads i go long, tails i go short. Then i had to manage the trade based on tape reading abilities.
I think that was the best "system" i ever learned. You accept the fact that its out of your hands, and you learn to minimize risk as much as possible. Most of all, i actually eked out a profit that month practicing it using tape reading alone( not including commission, i do not recommend doing this to make money).

Alot of people are asking for brokerage statement. I might go ahead an post one when i start trading in January( maybe just a monthly or the first week). I'll probably fund a separate account and I'll have to blur out most of the stuff for privacy/security reasons but you will however see the PNL.

In terms of trading gurus, i do think that a majority are not profitable, but there are others who are, and want to make more money. If your gap trading strategy works for example, and you make 10% a year, then your profitable. But on a 10k account, thats not gonna sustain you. You have to consider that as well. And that could also be a reason why they have rooms and sell stuff. Its a business.


Alot of trading gurus will not admit it at first, but they might give a signal to go long or short, but they won't take it themselves since its low probability. They HAVE to do it because if they don't, then people in the room will complain that they're paying him to talk. I know it sounds stupid, but its very true and i've seen quite a few who confess to this( including linda raschke).
True professional traders, would rather take 1 trade a day, with 90% profitability and + expectancy, than take 10 trades a day with 60% profitability. Most people though want to be in the second camp. You constantly see new traders who come in this forum and ask if its possible try to exploit the market by scalping for 3 ticks only, all in all out.

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  #532 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Michael.H View Post
I think its more than 1%.

I also think that most people who trade believe that you gotta do 10 round trips a day. I've said this before, in terms of risk reward, you only get 1-2 good trades a day, THATS IT. If odds of making money are 50%, but your winners are bigger, you will make money. Meaning your trigger could have the same probability as a coin flip.

When i was learning to trade, the person mentoring me made me flip a coin, heads i go long, tails i go short. Then i had to manage the trade based on tape reading abilities.
I think that was the best "system" i ever learned. You accept the fact that its out of your hands, and you learn to minimize risk as much as possible. Most of all, i actually eked out a profit that month practicing it using tape reading alone( not including commission, i do not recommend doing this to make money).

Alot of people are asking for brokerage statement. I might go ahead an post one when i start trading in January( maybe just a monthly or the first week). I'll probably fund a separate account and I'll have to blur out most of the stuff for privacy/security reasons but you will however see the PNL.

In terms of trading gurus, i do think that a majority are not profitable, but there are others who are, and want to make more money. If your gap trading strategy works for example, and you make 10% a year, then your profitable. But on a 10k account, thats not gonna sustain you. You have to consider that as well. And that could also be a reason why they have rooms and sell stuff. Its a business.


Alot of trading gurus will not admit it at first, but they might give a signal to go long or short, but they won't take it themselves since its low probability. They HAVE to do it because if they don't, then people in the room will complain that they're paying him to talk. I know it sounds stupid, but its very true and i've seen quite a few who confess to this( including linda raschke).
True professional traders, would rather take 1 trade a day, with 90% profitability and + expectancy, than take 10 trades a day with 60% profitability. Most people though want to be in the second camp. You constantly see new traders who come in this forum and ask if its possible try to exploit the market by scalping for 3 ticks only, all in all out.

Michael,

My intent of the earlier post was not meant to 'call anyone out', so I apologize if I did. I do believe there are profitable traders, but I am curious why we never see them really really prove it. Scott here has the bravery to post his wins and losses and something 'gurus' never ever ever ever ever show. Nobody wins every day!

A Ninja Dom showing the account w/ a profit on the screen is enough for most. If a guru has to block out part of the account #, paint in Windows is sufficient, but not the first letters "SIM" hahaha..... I do not doubt YOU (MICHAEL) are profitable and you truly may be one of the very very few in my opinion, however, my point was that if you did show it and could journal it, then it sure would encourage and help others.

Guru's think they need to talk to get students. In my opinion that is challenged thinking because all a GURU has to do as well as a CTA is show a statement, day-in, day-out, no BS, and the students will come out of the woodwork. I know, I have subscribed to many many systems over the last few years and it is all smoking mirrors 99% of the time. So far actually, 100% of the time for me. My current mentor does it as well, but I do believe one can trade the system and be profitable, and maybe not every day, but more than not and that is what we need. The ES, CL and others will sure handle a lot of contracts to get a little fatter than adding that 'side income'.

I don't want to sabotage his journal, but the point is, KEEP IT UP SCOTT, and you are one of the LONE WARRIORS on the right path. I know it can happen but don't quit when you are so close and you are as good as any GURU's I have seen.


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  #533 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
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I agree, one thing i have never seen is someone show a DOM that wasn't sim, but a real account. I still don't understand why most don't do that.

In terms of just switching to ES or CL and do bigger size, thats easier said than done.

It all has to do with your biggest losers to equity in your account. You can't just do "bigger size" if one loss will wipe out half you account. Thats what i was inferring to when i said supplument income.
I never took it as you calling anyone out, so no need for apologies my friend. I'll most likely post something from my trading if it will help you guys. But i feel like im hijacking this thread, so will leave to for another discussion.

Shodson has the right approach, he just has to work on adding a filter. It might wipe out some profitable trades, but i think it would be better to take less trades( or no trade at all on some days), and increase profitability. Problem with most gap systems i believe is when the markets trend hard, it tends to have an extended unprofitable/low profit period before it returns to normal.

Looking back at his posts, it looks like he's doing great...
Keep up the good work shodson.

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  #534 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Thanks everybody for your feedback. I realize that the way I trade is perhaps not optimal for many traders, and I'm always looking for ways to improve it, which is one of the main reasons I spend the time to cut screen shots and write posts for my journal. I think I actually spend more time journaling than actually trading, which leads to my main point: due to work demands and other circumstances, I can't spend hours in front of a screen to manually trade, so most of my trading has to be automated. I realize that I could probably get better results working on becoming a better discretionary trader and developing my mind and psychology to become a better trader, but I just don't have the time to do so, at least during RTH. I read lots of books, study lots of charts, backtest lots of ideas, run a traders Meetup, so I'm very much involved in trying to become a better trader, but my main deficiency is not putting in the screen-time required to "feel" and trade the market with confidence. I recognize and own this deficiency and try my best trying to work around, but I may never become the next Paul Tudor Jones as a result, but I still feel like my efforts are worthwhile.

I started reading Market Wizards last week, enjoying it very much, I wish I had read this sooner. It just keeps reinforcing the "keep losers small and let winners run" and "don't afraid to be wrong" mantras I keep hearing over and over. I don't mind being wrong, so I think I'm OK there, but my winners are often smaller than my losers, at least with gap trading, which I'd like to improve upon which I believe is holding me back to achieve better results. Still, I'm up about 50% on the year, which many would kill for, so I feel I can't complain too much, but I feel I can do a lot better.

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  #535 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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shodson View Post
Thanks everybody for your feedback. I realize that the way I trade is perhaps not optimal for many traders, and I'm always looking for ways to improve it, which is one of the main reasons I spend the time to cut screen shots and write posts for my journal. I think I actually spend more time journaling than actually trading, which leads to my main point: due to work demands and other circumstances, I can't spend hours in front of a screen to manually trade, so most of my trading has to be automated. I realize that I could probably get better results working on becoming a better discretionary trader and developing my mind and psychology to become a better trader, but I just don't have the time to do so, at least during RTH. I read lots of books, study lots of charts, backtest lots of ideas, run a traders Meetup, so I'm very much involved in trying to become a better trader, but my main deficiency is not putting in the screen-time required to "feel" and trade the market with confidence. I recognize and own this deficiency and try my best trying to work around, but I may never become the next Paul Tudor Jones as a result, but I still feel like my efforts are worthwhile.

I started reading Market Wizards last week, enjoying it very much, I wish I had read this sooner. It just keeps reinforcing the "keep losers small and let winners run" and "don't afraid to be wrong" mantras I keep hearing over and over. I don't mind being wrong, so I think I'm OK there, but my winners are often smaller than my losers, at least with gap trading, which I'd like to improve upon which I believe is holding me back to achieve better results. Still, I'm up about 50% on the year, which many would kill for, so I feel I can't complain too much, but I feel I can do a lot better.

What about using market replay and doing everything a day behind?

We have 2 small kids, so my wife can't do the trading live lately either, so she skips a day and any free time she has she spends a couple of hours watching the market and mostly not trading either. It helps her immensely and she has cut out everything else completely.

Just an idea, and I realize that would take you away from live.

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  #536 (permalink)
 shodson 
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bluemele View Post
What about using market replay and doing everything a day behind?

We have 2 small kids, so my wife can't do the trading live lately either, so she skips a day and any free time she has she spends a couple of hours watching the market and mostly not trading either. It helps her immensely and she has cut out everything else completely.

Just an idea, and I realize that would take you away from live.

I "replay" the market with charts. If I was a scalper I'd probably get more out of market replay, but I'm generally looking for signals on bar close, on timeframes 15mins or higher, and studying ways to identify and trade S/R, overnight and previous day ranges, etc.

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  #537 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Thursday, December 30th - Took 4 extended target gap trades primarily based on MTG's research of this period of the year. Three of the markets opened up in good probability zones but TF did not, which provided my largest loser. I didn't respect the gap guide probabilities and ignored the fact that MTG's research was based on ES only.

I think my greed wanted to swing for the fences here at the end of the month and the year to try to end the month with a gain, but I instead ended up with my first down month since, I think, July (I didn't start detailing my monthly results until September)

TF: -29 ticks
YM: -8 ticks
ES: +8 ticks
NQ: +19 ticks


I don't think I'm going to trade on 12/31. These trading ranges are so narrow. So I'll see you in 2011!




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  #538 (permalink)
 shodson 
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First losing month in a while...


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Have a Happy New Year, Scott.

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 bluemele 
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shodson View Post
First losing month in a while...

As they say in Hawaii, Shoots Bruddah, not bad.

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