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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #521 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Take three if they're small

Friday, October 17th - Options expiration favor fading up gaps. I got three small up gaps, plus slippage and got 3 small winners. Better than losing.

TF: +2 ticks
YM: +11 ticks
NQ: +16 ticks


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  #522 (permalink)
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papa15 View Post
I have looked at CL gaps....CL has a strong tendency to hit at least the half gap fill during the day (except for strong trend days). The trick is to know when to get in. CL will frequently go away from gap fill for a significant move and then turn towards the gap. I have found entering at some point below the opening price after the initial move is the safest play. Hope this helps and maybe if we all throw in our observations, we can create a workable play/strategy
Papa15

Trading all CL gaps, filtering out by gap size (gap must be larger than MinGapSize). Notice how poorly it did in the summer of 2008. This was when oil was soaring to $150 (per Goldman) then tanked hard later that year. This begs for volatility-based filters, or trade-with-trend considerations.

Trading 3 cars like MN: target 1/4, 1/2 and full gap fill, stop = target on each car, no stop adjustment. Larger gaps give a better edge but with fewer trades (less commission).

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  #523 (permalink)
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Back in black!


Monday, December 20th - I'm fully recovered on the month with a nice gap trade on TF. I now have a small profit. I tried a first-hour breakout trade which came 1 tick from my target then turned around for a BE+1 trade.

TF: +38 and +1 ticks

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Last edited by shodson; December 20th, 2010 at 05:01 PM.
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  #524 (permalink)
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Wonder-tick

Tuesday, December 21st - No gap trades, but I took a first-hour range breakout trade on YM. After entry the market just sputtered around then made a large up and then down move at the close, yielding me a whopping 1 tick gain. If I had looked to entering on the retrace, which I sometimes do, I would have had my limit order at 11460, which it did touch but I might not have been filled there as that was the low of the move after the breakout.

YM: +1 tick

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  #525 (permalink)
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Wednesday, December 22nd - Another slow-moving, narrow-ranged day. I took 2 extended target gap trades since the gaps were so small, but I ended up with partial losses on both of them.

ES: -12 ticks
YM: -25 ticks


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  #526 (permalink)
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Thursday, December 23rd - Got a small gap winner in TF. I'm done for the week. Merry Christmas!

TF: +8 ticks

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  #527 (permalink)
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Seasonal Greetings

Just got back from out of town (Colorado River). Didn't trade Mon or Tues since I didn't have access to the Internet.

Last year I noticed that the days between Christmas and New Year that fading the gap every day was a winner. Since MTG takes those days off and doesn't provide as much guidance during those days I asked MTG if they could maybe publish a study about fading gaps during those days and they published this interesting video.

Fading Gaps Dec 26-Dec 31

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  #528 (permalink)
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I think what was interesting was that most of the money was made in the first few years and the last 5 years has been relatively calm or slightly positive.

Thanks for sharing this is good stuff.

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  #529 (permalink)
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shodson View Post
No, I have not. My style is so far deviated from how the MTG moderator trades that it would be hard to compare. He uses a lot of discretion in his position sizing and he doesn't always publish his exact sizing, or even his relative sizing (sometimes says "1/2 size trade" but not always, often says "reduced position" but not known how reduced). He also only gap trades ES where I will fade any good-looking gap in any of the 4 equity indexes.

I know gap trading overall has been a little rough for him this year because of his discretionary money management, moving stops after getting near gap fill, then getting stopped out on a pullback, then eventually filling the gap, but he still believes that over time it's better in the long run to do it that way.

Needless to say that my approach is much more mechanical than his.

I was going through your journal. My guess is that he makes a lot more money off of selling his course than any losses from trading. I noticed you were talking about quitting etc..

One thing I find interesting is look at all the people on Big Mike's, Forex Factory etc... What you will find is that I have yet to find a solid trader doing a journal of their trades day-in-day-out (no cherry picking) with 'proof' of their trades. For some reason they just don't exist or I am not aware of it. Everyone puts a 'line' on their chart when they could show chart markers or people just put down what they supposedly did. They don't prove 'full positions', etc..

You have the courage to go into the frontlines and show how you are "shooting your bullets". I am a Pacifist, so maybe not the best analogy, but my point is that you are on a path less traveled for sure.

I am like you and think like you about trading. The question that I continue to ask myself is how come the 'successful' traders all give advice but will never show real charts, real brokerage statements and real trades?

Maybe I am wrong, but I believe the 5% of traders is a Myth and that it is probably closer to 1% and those are the people who are not 'selling' services. Those are people who understand that you can make a butt-load more money like Cohen and others by trading OPM. Maybe I am wrong or biased.

Now, this all may seem depressing, critical, limited thinking, etc.. But, my main point is that you are truly doing something that most people don't have the cajones to do. You are definitely a top trader in my opinion for risking your capital and actually doing what you say you are doing. You are if not in the 1% (profitable), then at least you in the in 2nd 1%. haha...

Thanks for sharing your journal as it saves and helps by educating others.

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  #530 (permalink)
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Wednesday, December 29th - Took an extended target gap trade on TF. Closed it out at the end of the day for a small loss.

TF: -3 ticks

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