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shodson's Trading Journal

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  #461 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Friday, November 19th - No gap trades, but there were strong first-hour setups in ES and TF, but just took ES for a 4.5pt winner. TF also worked out, blowing through it's first-hour highs. Looking at my performance this helped me end up flat on the week.

ES: +18 ticks


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  #462 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Inspired by a blog post from @ cunparis I added expectancy and other metrics to my trading performance spreadsheet over the weekend. I also had to ramp up my Excel function programming foo in order to pull some of this off.


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 shodson 
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Monday, November 22nd - Upset with myself because I set up my gap fading strat incorrectly last night, which kept me out of a 34 tick TF winner, Grr.

I did, however, pick up a nice low breakout of the first hour on ES. I tried to limit in on YM also on the same setup but my entry was too greedy and it hit the target without me. I guess I was fearful of taking a trade on two instruments at the same time, instead of risking 40 YM ticks to make 40YM ticks, I tried to limit in to only risk 20 and make 60, but it didn't pull back that far. YM and ES aren't as volatile as TF so I was fearing that if it wasn't going to work out I didn't want to take two full-size losses.

So 1 out of 3 possible winners for the day. I'm thankful I was able to pull some money out of the market.

ES: +17 ticks


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 shodson 
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Tuesday, November 23rd - It just didn't work

TF: -30 ticks
YM: -28 ticks



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Will you trade Wed 24th or no due to holiday? Same question for Fri 26th.

Mike

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  #466 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Wednesday, November 24th - We had very large gaps up that were not tradeable.

We had good first-hour setups in 3 instruments, but I gotta tell you it was hard to get long between R2 and R3. I was still stinging from yesterday's loss getting short after such a large down move. However, I decided that if I hadn't followed my plan when it felt wrong that I would really hate myself if it was a winning trade that I missed out on, and that if it was a loser I would be less upset with myself, but still would not be happy. In the end I went long TF on a pullback. I also got long YM on a deeper pullback, lowering my risk and improving my entry. ES looked good too but I stayed way, not wanting to risk 3 trades on the same setup. TF hit its target and YM closed at the end of the day for a small win. ES would also have been a partial end-of-day 3.00pt winner too.

I will not be trading Thursday or Friday, so Happy Thanksgiving to my friends in the USA, and we'll see you next week!

TF: +27 ticks
YM: +12 ticks




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 shodson 
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Just playing with price action patterns and volume. Looking at gravestone and dragonfly dojis, particularly with range charts. I think these are interesting candles on range charts because to me they represent major rejection in one direction or another, especially when you get large volume (beyond 2 StdDevs).



Add a good risk/reward ratio, trade only during the best times, don't chase (limit in), and, well...


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 Tiger45 
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shodson View Post
Just playing with price action patterns and volume. Looking at gravestone and dragonfly dojis, particularly with range charts.

I have been doing the same thing, but with price charts. Right now I'm playing with the code for the entry and have notice that I get wildly different results depending on if I place a market order to get in or a limit order at some formula-based entry point. I think it's a code bug, but hopefully will get it ironed out this weekend. I'm new to NT programming, and haven't yet figured out how to step through the code. Writing stuff to the output window is tedious and painful.

The dragonfly doji is a nice pattern, but some of the other patterns are a little harder to code for. I've tried pre-defined sizes for the candles, but am getting better results if I use percentages instead.

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  #469 (permalink)
 Mindset 
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shodson View Post
Inspired by a blog post from @ cunparis I added expectancy and other metrics to my trading performance spreadsheet over the weekend. I also had to ramp up my Excel function programming foo in order to pull some of this off.

Hi

Very honest journal - love it.
Your expectancy metric is crucial BUT I think you should test your Risk/Reward rather than pure no of ticks.

Let me explain...

If you go long to close a gap with a 4pt stop on the ES and make 5pts then your expectancy is 1.25.
Also allows easier comparison between instruments.

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  #470 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Mindset View Post
Hi

Very honest journal - love it.
Your expectancy metric is crucial BUT I think you should test your Risk/Reward rather than pure no of ticks.

Let me explain...

If you go long to close a gap with a 4pt stop on the ES and make 5pts then your expectancy is 1.25.
Also allows easier comparison between instruments.

My FHG trades usually have a risk/reward of 1.0. My gap trades usually hare a risk/reward less than 1.0, which I'm not totally comfortable with, but overall they are plenty profitable setups for me, I just have to endure more stressful drawdown periods. This month my gap trades are performing with a 77.8% win rate and a 2.17 profit factor so this month has been less stressful.

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