shodson's Trading Journal - futures io
futures io



shodson's Trading Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one shodson with 573 posts (740 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 41 posts (32 thanks)
    3. looks_3 bluemele with 12 posts (15 thanks)
    4. looks_4 cclsys with 11 posts (8 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one shodson with 1.3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two bluemele with 1.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Michael.H with 1.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 161,307 views
    2. thumb_up 869 thanks given
    3. group 52 followers
    1. forum 770 posts
    2. attach_file 956 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

shodson's Trading Journal

(login for full post details)
  #401 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received

Thursday, September 30th - I guess I just needed bigger stops.

ES: 1 loss: -20 ticks
YM: 1 loss: -50 ticks




A reversal trade where the daily/weekly/monthly pivots came together would have been a nice short.


Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Market on Close data within IB
Platforms and Indicators
in depth understanding of last, bid, and ask volume in c …
NinjaTrader
How do I create Strategy with the Second Entry indicator
NinjaTrader
Big Mo Indicator for NT8
NinjaTrader
help with take profit several targets
TradeStation
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Is anyone actually making money?
88 thanks
An embarrassing, honest confession
25 thanks
Sierra vs. Ninja : why I chose .....
8 thanks
ApexTraderFunding.com experience and review
8 thanks
Want your NinjaTrader indicator created, free?
7 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #402 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,184 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,683 given, 99,760 received


shodson View Post
Thursday, September 30th - I guess I just needed bigger stops.

ES: 1 loss: -20 ticks
YM: 1 loss: -50 ticks

Or better entries



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #403 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,305 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,981 given, 5,690 received



shodson View Post
Thursday, September 30th - I guess I just needed bigger stops.

ES: 1 loss: -20 ticks
YM: 1 loss: -50 ticks



A reversal trade where the daily/weekly/monthly pivots came together would have been a nice short.

Is that you who created this nice table of stats ? I want it ;-)

It's not my business but don't you find a stop loss of 20 ticks a bit large for the ES ?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #404 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
Is that you who created this nice table of stats ? I want it ;-)

It's not my business but don't you find a stop loss of 20 ticks a bit large for the ES ?

The black and white cells on the left I get from MTG. The green/yellow/pink stats on the right are some calculations I do that help me apply the stats. The probabilities are based on using a stop that is 30% of the 5-day ATR, or 5pts, whichever is greater. So today's setup had a 64% chance of success and a favorable profit factor. Since the odds were not 100% sometimes you get losers. If you are confident that you have a statistical edge it makes it easier to endure the drawdowns because the statistics tell you the winners are just around the corner, but you need to size your positions correctly so you don't run out of money before the drawdown is over (risk of ruin).

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #405 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received

Friday, October 1st - Avenged yesterday's losses fading large up-gaps, got +8pts in the ES and +17.5pts in NQ. I used to not fade gaps > 40% of the 5-day ATR, as they are usually more risky, but I've passed up on some really big winners before, so now my limit is 100% of the 5-day ATR. That's what the MIN and MAX values on my spreadsheet are for.

We had our Meetup Wednesday night on Price Action, Support/Resistance and Volume. With topics that broad we should have probably split it up into 10 separate meetings. Anyways, there were a lot of members interested in coming, we couldn't seat everybody. I told everybody to bring some of your favorite forms of price action, or how you use support and resistance, or volume, and nobody else prepared anything. I was the only one that came prepared to share anything on the topic. That was frustrating. I'm starting to wonder if continuing running the Meetup is worth my time.

I got my Mirus statement, increased my account by +10.7% in September.

ES: 1 win: +32 ticks
NQ: 1 win: +70 ticks


Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #406 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,184 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,683 given, 99,760 received


shodson View Post
I got my Mirus statement, increased my account by +10.7% in September.

Bravo!

And good job today as well.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #407 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received

Wednesday, October 6th - Pretty good setups in some instruments but the gaps were small, only YM had gaps large enough to trade.

I'm now comparing each futures contract with its corresponding ETF to make sure they don't diverge too much. It was either Monday's or Tuesday's setups where they greatly diverged and were good signs to stay out of what would have been a losing trade.

YM: 1 win: +16 ticks




Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #408 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received

Thursday, October 7th - We had large gaps up and good gap fading setups in these zones for all indices so I faded all 4, which all filled quickly. Unfortunately, TF failed due to an error in the ATS. The gap guides in TF were so favorable that I set up to fade any gap in any direction for TF, within 100% of it's 5-day ATR. However, I'm not sure why the order was canceled, I set the strats up the same way so they should have worked the same. I'll have to look into it. Perhaps of note is the fact that I've never traded TF and this was my first attempt to do so, so maybe I need to have my ATS place it's market orders differently for TF ( ? ) because maybe it's exchange (NYBOT?) has different rules about market orders.

ES: +14 ticks
YM: +37 ticks
NQ: +42 ticks




Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #409 (permalink)
 LukeGeniol 
Italy (IT)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ATAS, R|Trader, NT8
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: CL, Brent, GC, TF
 
LukeGeniol's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,501 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 408 given, 985 received

Ja, sometime it works, like others pattern.
I'm joking, but don't know if to me this gap trading has much sense, seems like remove some bars and the taking the gap, anyway maybe it works.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #410 (permalink)
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 533 given, 3,694 received



LukeGeniol View Post
Ja, sometime it works, like others pattern.
I'm joking, but don't know if to me this gap trading has much sense, seems like remove some bars and the taking the gap, anyway maybe it works.
Have u herd about hidden gap theory?

Well, for the past 11 months gap trading has worked well for me. Creating a trading plan using favorable win rates and good profit expectancies with a system backtested over 10-12 years of data that considers market conditions, chart patterns and seasonality has made good money for me thus far. Some day maybe it won't work, or I may have to adjust my rules a bit to adapt to a new market reality. How well I adapt to such a change will be important, and realizing, even expecting, that my "edge" may not be with me forever is a step in the right direction. But in the end, for now, I'm pleased with what I have.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > shodson's Trading Journal


Last Updated on December 10, 2020


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2023 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts