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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #341 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Holyoke, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: AMP/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: ES & 6E
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

MTG

Hi Scott
I noticed your post this morning in the MTG chat room. That lead me to here. This is a great thread you have going. I have a lot of reading to catch up on! It is nice to follow someone who trades similar to me. Keep up the good work. Also have you done any more testing on trading the CL and 6E? Thanks
Gary

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  #342 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
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kylegary View Post
Hi Scott
I noticed your post this morning in the MTG chat room. That lead me to here. This is a great thread you have going. I have a lot of reading to catch up on! It is nice to follow someone who trades similar to me. Keep up the good work. Also have you done any more testing on trading the CL and 6E? Thanks
Gary

Hello fellow MTG-er!

I posted some updated inside bar backtest results on CL yesterday. Haven't updated my testing on 6E yet.

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  #343 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
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hi shodson,

sorry for using this thread. but just in case you're interested in david marsh's eminitradingstrategies, I know about 10 people who bought the system. so if you need any information why you DON"T want to buy it, let me know.

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  #344 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
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Silvester17 View Post
hi shodson,

sorry for using this thread. but just in case you're interested in david marsh's eminitradingstrategies, I know about 10 people who bought the system. so if you need any information why you DON"T want to buy it, let me know.

Thanks for looking out for me Silvester. I gave up on EMTS several months ago after someone I met whose friend bought his stuff and later threw it away send it my way. His ES strategies aren't that great, but it seems the people trading his YM chop money strategy, which I don't have because he launched it after my friend's friend bought his ES method, are doing well, or at least I've heard more positive feedback from those trading that method than from people trading his ES method. He also stopped selling the YM strategy, which is another sign that perhaps it does work, or, he's just creating artificial scarcity for a "product launch" at another time. Do any of your friends have the YM method and have they tried that too?

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  #345 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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shodson View Post
Thanks for looking out for me Silvester. I gave up on EMTS several months ago after someone I met whose friend bought his stuff and later threw it away send it my way. His ES strategies aren't that great, but it seems the people trading his YM chop money strategy, which I don't have because he launched it after my friend's friend bought his ES method, are doing well, or at least I've heard more positive feedback from those trading that method than from people trading his ES method. He also stopped selling the YM strategy, which is another sign that perhaps it does work, or, he's just creating artificial scarcity for a "product launch" at another time. Do any of your friends have the YM method and have they tried that too?

same here. nobody I know would like to spend another penny on his stuff.

if I'm not mistaken, the chop money strategy is about the same, only you go for more than 1 point. (ES has a chop money strategy as well).

for YM he offered a service where you actually let him (dave marsh) trade your account. and who in the world would do that??? someone told me that a lot of people lost a fortune in a very short period of time. no surprise there.

I don't want to go into more details, because I believe he's very lawyer happy. (like day trade to win)

if you would like to know more, I prefer to pm you.

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  #346 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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Monday, August 23rd - I set up to fade the D-CL zone only. Fading up gaps showed good probabilities too but on Scott's gap guide video he showed the risk of fading up gaps on the Monday after options expiration so I avoided those zones. Sure enough the market opened up and move up more than 5pts, which would have been a losing gap trade, but then did turn around and fade the gap.

I did, however, take a 1st hr low breakdown trade. The average of the odds weren't that great but someone in the chat room mentioned that the weighted averages (weighted on number of trades) were even higher so I was convinced to take a breakdown below the lows and got my 4 points right around the daily pivot.

ES: 1 win: +16 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-gap-fill-but-loser.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-first-hour-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-first-hour-entry.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-first-hour-stop-adjustment.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100823-first-hour-win.png  
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  #347 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Holyoke, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: ES & 6E
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

EMTS

I too bought Marsh's product about 2 1/2 years ago. A lot of contracts for 2 ticks. It seems you spent most of your day in his "recovery" mode. My recommendation would be stay clear of his system.

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  #348 (permalink)
Student Of The Markets
New York
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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ETS System

My first experience after careful or what I thought was careful research was with David Marsh's ETS system. After about nine months and losing a small fortune and the fact that yes there were some that had David trade his YM strategies on their account and after about 30 days he lost from 30% to 40% of their accounts. I still have contact with several ex members.

His system is lame, even his 80% high probabilty coming out of "No Zone" is a 80% loser. In the end that was the only trades I would make and still lost dough. BEWARE!!!! STAY AWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM

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  #349 (permalink)
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DX and CL correlation

I woke up and saw that the dollar index (DX) was collapsing hard but CL was not responding. Since oil is purchased in dollars, it has an inverse relationship with the dollar. This correlation looked out of whack and needed to mean-revert so I put in a limit order at 74.10 but didn't get filled as it went up past 74.35+ so I canceled the order.

I was just a little slow at getting my order in, but I thought I'd share this correlation example as an interesting setup to consider.

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  #350 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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Tuesday, August 24th - I set up a few zones for a gap fade, but the market opened way below the close, too far to take a gap trade. The MTG moderator said in the chat room that if the gap doesn't fill at the end of the day to take a with-gap trade as those that were fading the gap will exit their trades. The down bar that printed at 12:45pm (30min before close) that reversed the up-trend was a nice short entry for 2-3 points. I did not take this trade as I was not available to do so at the time and I've never researched this setup before.

I did take a 1st hour trade to fade the highs of the first hour for another 4pt winner. I was a little less comfortable with the fact that the weighted averages were weaker than the standard averages, and I took some heat after almost hitting the target early, which almost caused me to tighten my stop, but I stuck with the system and held out for an eventual winner.

ES: 1 trade: +16 ticks

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Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-fader-msg.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-first-hour-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-first-hour-entry.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-first-hour-later.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100824-first-hour-win.png  
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