Monday, July 19th - The D-OC zone provided a nice setup and I got 2.25pts on an easy gap trade. The extended target was hit too. If I was trading more than 1 car I would have left 1 car for the extended target based on the gap guide setups which showed the extended target trade had a slightly higher profit factor than just going for gap fill.
Thursday, July 22nd - The market opened in the high probability D-OC zone, with confirmation from other markets. However, it was a 14pt gap, greater than 50% of the 5-day ATR, and I only allowed myself to trade that zone if it was 9pts or less, so no trade was taken. It would have been a losing trade as the market continued to move higher another 15+ points.
Looks like this channel might be busted, what do you think? Would you go short here, or is resistance going to become support? This level is not just an impulse spike, it has been basing here for a while, so I tend to think it will become support to a new upside move, but I'd wait for a breakout above the consolidation to run the stops up there. What do you think?
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If I had to pick a bias just for fun, then I would say we will return to the channel, so bearish.
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