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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #291 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
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Monday, June 21st - I set up one gap zone but price opened way above it.

NO TRADES

I coded and backtested my HHLL system with an overbought/oversold oscillator and am liking initial results. Need to do more testing an do more sophisticated money management and have a more intelligent way to trail. I'm not sure I like having such low win rates even though my targets are 4-6x my stop loss. I don't do "scalp-and-runner", I'm just trading for big moves.

It gave 1 good signal on today's Aug contract at 6:25am.

I'm afraid that if the market goes sideways and volatility dries up this could be a real money loser. I also want to incorporate volume somehow to increase the quality of the signals and make my expectancy a function of the instrument's daily ATRs.

Works best with M15 on forex and M5 on CL. I don't know any successful forex traders that trade any charts slower than M15, do you?

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shodson's Trading Journal-bt-6e.png   shodson's Trading Journal-bt-cl05.png   shodson's Trading Journal-bt-cl06.png   shodson's Trading Journal-bt-cl07.png   shodson's Trading Journal-cl-today.png   shodson's Trading Journal-cl-chart.png  
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  #292 (permalink)
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Tuesday, June 22nd - I set up on area to gap fade but it opened below it (1109.75) so no trade.

NO TRADE

I was up early so I joined the MTG chat room. In the room they've been sharing some new research they've been working WRT the opening range (1st hr of trading). Today their research showed good setups for fading the the low of the range (1105.00) and for buying a breakout above the highs of the range (1114.50), each with a 4pt target and a 4.75pt stop. The market tested the low, bounced around there and then hit it's target for 4+ pts. They are having success with these open range trades and are still in forward testing mode.

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shodson's Trading Journal-20100622-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100622-data.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100622-es-opening-range.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 22nd, 2010 at 12:42 PM.
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  #293 (permalink)
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Wednesday, June 23rd - Yesterday's daily gap wrap video warned against fading up gaps on FOMC day, but the probabilities looked good for gap and extended target trading that I went ahead and set up to trade the 2 zones around the close. The market did open open up with small gaps in a zone where I went for the extended target. With the help of a horrible housing report I hit my target for a nice winner. This is the first extended target trade my strategy has taken since I coded that capability and it seems to be working

ES: 1 win: +15 ticks

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The HHLL reverserer threw some nice with-trend failure signals this morning. I'm really anxious to start using this once I find a way I'm really comfortable with. So far, I believe the following arrows work best
1) with trend failures (yellow), no more than 2 or 3 in the same trend move
2) directional arrows (magenta and cyan) arrows when there is no trend (cliff dots are gray)

I'm also experimenting with reversals in context of a linear regression line turning a corner.

I also want to code in failed failures (yellow arrows that fail before another arrow appears), they don't happen that often but when I do see them they seem to work well.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100623-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100623-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100623-fader-msg.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100623-es-extended-target-winner.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100623-cl-hh-ll.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 23rd, 2010 at 12:31 PM.
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  #294 (permalink)
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Thursday, June 24th - There were good gap setups and decent sized gaps. There was a warning to prevent down gaps on the day after FOMC meetings, but I figured that's all baked into the gap guides already. So I get a tradable down gap at the open and the market quickly moved down further and stopped me out.

ES: 1 fail: -20 ticks

An hour into the session MTG published their first hour breakout setup odds and fading a visit to the highs of the session looked interesting so I put in a short order one tick below the high of the first hour but price never got up that high and I was never filled.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100624-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100624-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100624-es-gap-fade-fail.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100624-mockzones.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100624-es-open-range-top-fade.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 25th, 2010 at 04:29 AM.
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  #295 (permalink)
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Friday, June 25th - I set up some gap zones to trade the night before but the trades weren't taken. For some reason the chart that had my strategy on it wasn't updating and it was frozen with the price it was at the night before, even though I was still connected. Unfortunately, this caused me to miss a winning gap trade which closed it's 2pt gap and also hit it's 4.5pt extended target pretty easily and quickly. Grrrrr...NINJA!!!!!

NO TRADES

Monday, June 28th - The ES had 1 good zone but it wasn't confirmed by other indexes but the YM and NQ had similar looking setups so I set up to fade a down gap on the YM but it opened up so I didn't get a trade.

Over the weekend I built a strat and backtested inside bars explained at the THREE SETUPS thread. Feeling pretty good about it I set it up to run on live money but missed 2 winners in the morning because of a bug, which I fixed. I didn't get anymore inside bar setups after I fixed the bug so no trades on CL.

NO TRADES

At 7:30am the MTG chat room released their first hour setups and there was a high probability setup to fade the highs of the day. It did test the highs and turned around with a little heat and those that took the trade made a nice 4pts. This is explained in their daily video if you're interested (see 6:00 into the video)

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  #296 (permalink)
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Tuesday, June 29th - The gap guides in the ES were weak. The D-OC zone seemed semi-interesting but it wasn't that great. However, the D-CL looked interesting in both the YM and NQ so I set up to fade the YM. However with bad numbers coming out of China the market opened way down and never looked back so I didn't get a gap trade.

At 7:30 they published their 1st hour numbers and the strongest play was to buy a breakdown of the morning's lows. I was set up with a sell-stop below the low of the first hour but then my Outlook reminded me that the power company was going to do maintenance on the power systems in our neighborhood and we might have some power outages so I canceled all orders, stopped all automated strategies and turned the computer off for the day. Turns out the 1st hour trade would have fired as price revisited the lows, making slightly lower lows on the day, but then turned around for what would have been at 5pt stop out, but I "missed" it.

I tried to get some inside bar trades on CL but my strat still wasn't firing trades for some reason still, so no trades there either. It would have had 2 winners and 1 loser.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100629-gap-guide.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100629-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100629-fader-msg.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100629-cl-missed-trades.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 30th, 2010 at 05:56 AM.
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  #297 (permalink)
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Working with a friend that's a full-time FX trader who often averages 200+ pips a day per lot, learning his setups, converting the indicators he uses on another platform to Ninja.

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Last edited by shodson; June 30th, 2010 at 06:54 AM.
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  #298 (permalink)
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Hi Shodson

Looks very interesting and promising...What indicators are being used. and how soon do you think you will be able to have them converted to NT 7

Sharmas

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  #299 (permalink)
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sharmas View Post
Hi Shodson

Looks very interesting and promising...What indicators are being used. and how soon do you think you will be able to have them converted to NT 7

Sharmas

These are custom-coded indicators. I'm not converting anything to NT7 until it comes out of beta.

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  #300 (permalink)
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1-Tick Travails


Wednesday, June 30th - I set up some zones the trade but the gap wasn't large enough so it didn't take a trade, which would have been a winner. I just needed 1 more tick of gap to take a trade.

However, I got my CL "THREE SETUPS" strat going and picked up 3 nice scalps.

CL: 3 wins, +66 ticks

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shodson's Trading Journal-20100630-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100630-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100630-fader-msg.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100630-cl-scalping.png  
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