Tuesday, June 8th - Pick up a 2.5pt gap fade winner. Opened in the high probability D-OC zone for a small winner. If the gap had been much smaller I would have gone for the extended target, which it did eventually hit which would have been a 4.25 - 5.75pt winner.
Wednesday, June 9th - Opened in the low probability U-H zone, not a zone I set up to trade. I only set up trades for the U-OL zone. I'm kind of glad I didn't get a trade also because two indexes were up yesterday and the other two were down. Having closes in mixed directions makes the gap guides less reliable if you look to other indexes to confirm your setup, which I do.
Thursday, June 10th - I set up to trade the D-OC but it opened in D-HO. The gap guides saved me from a loser. Also, the market gets a little riskier as we approach contract rollover volume starts to move into the newer contract.
Tuesday, June 15th - Got really strong gap guide setups with openings in the D-OC zone. The guides were so strong I even thought about increasing my position size but reminded myself not to do that and to stick with my plan. In the back of my mind I remember that when I see setups so strong that they sometimes become utter failures for some reason. Today was another failure, where the market gapped up and just kept going up all day long.
Wednesday, June 16th - Weak setups in the gap guides so I didn't even bother setting up the strategy to fade any zones. The U-HC zone was attractive but was very small so it was not likely to give me a favorable open. Price opened in the U-CO zone which was neutral to positive and the MTG moderator faded it for additional reasons not expressed in the gap guides. We'll see if it works out for him.
I've noticed when I get 2 uninterrupted directional arrows that it appears to be a very high probability trade. An uninterrupted set of directional arrows is where I get 2 cyan/magenta arrows with no opposite arrows between them. That makes sense as a new hi/lo is made and even later higher/lower values are achieved but because we don't get closes below the first arrow, which would print a failed arrow (yellow), price frequently will turn around as those levels are acting as S/R on a double top/bottom.
These don't happen very often so I need to look at more charts to find these and study these some more.
Found more of these of CL as it moves more violently. Maybe I should consider a faster chart like a 3min chart. I found more failures but most of them still seem to be winners. Need to figure out a trading plan around these.
The following user says Thank You to shodson for this post:
Started playing with filtering out HH/LL signals to only give a signal when an arrow is coming out of an overbought/oversold situation. Here's how the last 2 weeks of the CL cash session played out. I think I can make some money with this.