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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #281 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Tuesday, June 8th - Pick up a 2.5pt gap fade winner. Opened in the high probability D-OC zone for a small winner. If the gap had been much smaller I would have gone for the extended target, which it did eventually hit which would have been a 4.25 - 5.75pt winner.

ES: 1 win: +10 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-gap-guides1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-gap-guides2.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-fader-setup.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-fader-msgs.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-es-gap-win.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 8th, 2010 at 12:04 PM.
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  #282 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
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Wednesday, June 9th - Opened in the low probability U-H zone, not a zone I set up to trade. I only set up trades for the U-OL zone. I'm kind of glad I didn't get a trade also because two indexes were up yesterday and the other two were down. Having closes in mixed directions makes the gap guides less reliable if you look to other indexes to confirm your setup, which I do.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100609-gap-guide1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100609-fader-setup.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100609-fader-email.png  
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  #283 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

May 2010 Gap Wrap


Here's the MTG performance results for Q1, April, May and YTD

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  #284 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
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Thursday, June 10th - I set up to trade the D-OC but it opened in D-HO. The gap guides saved me from a loser. Also, the market gets a little riskier as we approach contract rollover volume starts to move into the newer contract.

NO TRADES

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shodson's Trading Journal-20100610-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100610-fader-email.png  
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  #285 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Friday, June 11th - Didn't like any of the gap setups, and the ES contract has split volume, so stayed away.

NO TRADES

Monday, June 14th - I set up 2 zones to trade but it didn't open in any of them. The gap guides prevented me from a losing trade as it would have been a loss.

NO TRADES

Learning about David Elliott and some of his setups, converting them to Ninjatrader strategies.

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  #286 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Tuesday, June 15th - Got really strong gap guide setups with openings in the D-OC zone. The guides were so strong I even thought about increasing my position size but reminded myself not to do that and to stick with my plan. In the back of my mind I remember that when I see setups so strong that they sometimes become utter failures for some reason. Today was another failure, where the market gapped up and just kept going up all day long.

ES: 1 fail: -27 ticks

Wednesday, June 16th - Weak setups in the gap guides so I didn't even bother setting up the strategy to fade any zones. The U-HC zone was attractive but was very small so it was not likely to give me a favorable open. Price opened in the U-CO zone which was neutral to positive and the MTG moderator faded it for additional reasons not expressed in the gap guides. We'll see if it works out for him.

...later...

It did, the gap filled nicely and easily.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-gap-guides1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-fader-msgs.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-es-gap-trade-fail.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-gap-play.png  

Last edited by shodson; June 16th, 2010 at 02:26 PM.
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  #287 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Uninterrupted directional arrows

I've noticed when I get 2 uninterrupted directional arrows that it appears to be a very high probability trade. An uninterrupted set of directional arrows is where I get 2 cyan/magenta arrows with no opposite arrows between them. That makes sense as a new hi/lo is made and even later higher/lower values are achieved but because we don't get closes below the first arrow, which would print a failed arrow (yellow), price frequently will turn around as those levels are acting as S/R on a double top/bottom.

These don't happen very often so I need to look at more charts to find these and study these some more.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-double-entry1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-double-entry2.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-double-entry3.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-double-entry4.png  
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  #288 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Crude interruptions

Found more of these of CL as it moves more violently. Maybe I should consider a faster chart like a 3min chart. I found more failures but most of them still seem to be winners. Need to figure out a trading plan around these.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry2.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry3.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry4.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry5.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry6.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry7.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry8.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry9.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl-double-entry10.png  

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  #289 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Thursday, June 17th - Picked up a nice, easy gap fade winner with price opening in the high probability U-HC zone.

ES: 1 win: +14 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100617-gap-guides1.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100617-fader-settings.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100617-es-gap-fade-win.png  
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  #290 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


Friday, June 18th - I set up one gap zone but price opened up 1 tick above it so it didn't take a trade. The 2+pt gap filled quickly and nicely without me.

NO TRADES

Started playing with filtering out HH/LL signals to only give a signal when an arrow is coming out of an overbought/oversold situation. Here's how the last 2 weeks of the CL cash session played out. I think I can make some money with this.


Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-20100607-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100608-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100609-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100610-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100611-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100614-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100615-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100616-cl.png   shodson's Trading Journal-20100617-cl.png  
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