3/17 - Great gap setup, good odds and profit factors, so I took a full-sized gap trade and...FAIL! It just never even came close to filling the gap. As I got close to stopping out the market felt really bullish as price kept bumping up against my resistance over and over again. I felt like reversing my position because I just didn't think the resistance could take that many hits but I stuck to my plan for a full loss. The reversal idea would have been a good one but I wasn't prepared to take it.
Once again, 1 loss wipes out 3-4 winning trades and I'm back to break-even. I'm thinking how my win rate on my trades has been high, but I seem to get a lot of small winners and large losers. I think my position sizing is reasonable, based on the strength of the signal, but in hindsight maybe I should just trade the same size every time.
I was watching 6E and CL as well. CL was pretty range-bound. I did see what I thought was going to be a wave 5 sell on 6E forming, but it didn't materialize and just went higher.
3/18 - There were similar odds with gap trades today as yesterday, but there was no gap to speak of so no gap trade.
I took a 00s trade on the 6E. In retrospect, this was not an ideal entry as it tested that level earlier at 3:15 and failed, then didn't reset back below the 50-line like I think it should (need to backtest this). At any rate, the trade failed.
3/19 - The gap play did not look very favorable to me, as well as others in the chat room, but the moderator took a short trade right at the open. I'm not really sure why other than he thought the market was over-bought. It was a pretty discretionary call, and a good one as the market tanked 10+ point pretty early on, but he spent the rest of the morning in the chat room trying to explain why he took the trade even though the gap guides weren't very supportive of it.
I took a 00s trade on the 6E but got stopped out at the high (1.3530) just before it turned around and would have hit my break-even target. Funny, I opened up Ninja on another machine later in the day, same account and data provider, and on my chart it never got over 1.3529 at that time, so I really got screwed on some slippage shenanigans, or there's some data discrepancies.
Scott, when you have a few minutes I'd be interested in seeing some MT examples and MQL stuff, as you are learning it. Maybe a new thread like I did with MultiCharts.
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In the wrap-up video for Friday it is apparent that although the odds for the ES were weak for fading the gap in the D-H zone, they were great for all of the other indexes as well as the correlating ETFs. Doing your homework before the market open pays off. Unfortunately, I didn't even wake up early enough to fade it for being up too late working on some other things until 2am.
3/22 - Not very good odds for gap fading, and the gap was very large, so I avoided a trade. Of course, the approx 8pt gap filled nicely and quickly. This month has been very bizarre for gap fading. The MTG daily video is here. The MTG gap wrap video is here if you want more details.
I saw a DIBS setup and went short on the 6E, but then realized I was looking at the 6B on my chart and I quickly got out of the trade for a small loss. I was a little groggy still for being up late the night before. Sheesh, stupid execution, wake up man! in retrospect, it was a blessing as the market, both 6E and 6B, ran to the upside and getting out -5 was better than getting out at my stop loss level.
My account is at the lowest it has ever been, only having been at it's highest level just last week. This is depressing
3/24 - Pretty good gap fade setup materialized so I went for it with a full size position. As we got less than 1pt of getting gap fill I reduced my stop in half so it later came back down and stopped me out. I usually don't adjust my stops on gap trades because I know it decreases the win rates when you do that but I felt it was going to fill and I didn't want to suffer another full-sized loss. It never did come down to where my original stop was and it never filled the gap so staying in the trade all day would have had me down only 2 ticks instead of 2+ points.
I should have not moved my stop and have renewed my commitment to just follow my plan to trade this system more mechanically. If I can't stomach a full-sized loss then I shouldn't be in the trade in the first place. So I've reduced my position size to a level that won't tick me off for the rest of the day if I take a loss. However, it will take me a lot longer to recover from previous losses with the smaller size but I'll just have to chalk include that into my already-paid "tuition" amount.
I've also re-committed to automating this system. The technical challenge is getting the MTG gap guide data in a machine-readable format so I could automate it but I started working on it last night. I can't keep missing winning trades because I sleep in only to arise early enough to take the losers. It's very maddening! I could just say "just get up earlier every day you lazy bum" but getting up at 5:30-6:00am every morning is not compatible with my personality as I like to stay up late sometimes working on something that has caught my interest or trying to hit some deadline.