3/3 - Slept in again because I was up too late coding some strats so I missed the open. MTG called a gap signal and once again I had the oppty to enter later but with a better entry price than if I had done it at the open. And again, I avoided it mainly because I didn't think the probabilities were that great and I was surprised MTG called a trade. The gap did fill later in the day but the moderator tightened his stop early when gap almost filled and got whipsawed out for a loser. So the good news I didn't lose any money today. The daily MTG gap wrap video is here.
Attachments are preliminary backtesting results of new strat.
3/4 - Pretty good setup in the gap guides but the gap was small so I went for the extended target instead but with a small position. I thought about going bigger but the last few days have been pretty choppy. I eventually hit my target. Others in the room targeted and extra 3 ticks and got it, but I just followed the gap guides.
3/5 - Gap guides had pretty good numbers so I couldn't not take a trade, but the pre-market bullish action concerned me. As I feared, the bulls ran me over for a 5pt loss, wiping out the last 9 days of trading gains
3/8 - Good gap probabilities led me to fade this small gap with a smaller size. But the day was extremely choppy and after 90mins into the day I moved my stops and targets around a bit and ended up with a small loss after having my stops near what was just 1 tick below the highs of the day. the gap did eventually fill but because I changed my plan and went for larger targets and tightened my stops I didn't get the win.
3/9 - Slept in, was up late trying to fix some computer problems. The gap setup was great except for market conditions were weak so most people at MTG avoided it. However, the gap did fill pretty easily.
3/10 - There were some good setups if the market gapped up but the market opened with almost no gap so I didn't take a trade. Here's the MTG daily video. People start rolling over tomorrow so ES could be choppy until Monday.
Been researching and coding strats for some really interestingly naked setups in FX and oil. Just have to know some simple price levels, which ones you want to play, what time of day to play it, consider news announcements, and good money management for best results. No laggy indicators.
3/11 - Gap odds were just OK, but since it's contract rollover day I decided against it. It turns out I ended up passing on a winner as it did take 2.5pts or more of heat but then turned around and filled the gap later in the morning. In hindsight, on these setups that are just mediocre, I'm thinking about entering at 1 or 2pts below the open to reduce my risk/reward ratio a bit as a way to reduce my risk. Of course, if it opens and quickly fills the gap, never giving me the fill I want then I miss it, but that's the trade-off.
3/12 - Good gap setups with good odds and profit factors as the market gapped up overnight. I was a little concerned shorting the market since it's been so bullish of late so I reduced my position size a bit, but the Euro was weak all morning which helped me feel good about going short. I went for the gap + the extended target and hit both targets within the first 45 mins. I thought about going for an even larger extended target and putting it right in from of the confluence at 43.25 but I didn't want to deviate from the probabilities provided to me from the gap guides.
3/15 - Only one gap zone looked interesting and that zone was small-ish so the gap would probably be small so I decided if I slept in I probably wouldn't miss a good setup. My guess was correct as it opened in the D-CL which was too risky. As of now the gap still has not traded and is now below the open, so if I had taken a gap trade it wouldn't be doing very well.
Before I went to bed though I saw a 00s setup on the 6E developing and put in an order and an ATM strategy to manage it. It did fire off and hit my target.
3/16 - Semi-good odds to fade an up gap (going short) today but the poor seasonality worried me as the 16th of the month is usually bullish due to in-flows. Also, it's FOMC day and fading up gaps is historically not good on FOMC days as the market is usually bullish into the announcements. With that said, the gap did fill but I don't regret passing.
I woke up to a DIBS breakout on the 6E and took it for a nice winner 1x and 2x my initial risk. After I hit my second target I thought about increasing my 2nd target up to the 50% extension, which it did cross, but stayed with my original plan for 12 fewer ticks.