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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

8/12 - Didn't trade 8/11 as I was up until 2am that morning working but decided to join the guys at MasterTheGap.com yesterday, took their gap fade and price extensions targets for a winner at the open which met my daily profit targets within the first 10 minutes, stopped trading. The chat room was targeting 999, which it did eventually hit, but as I was new to their system I wanted to use a quick scalp for now while I get comfortable with this system. I like their emphasis on selecting high probability trades (only consider setup with win rates of 75% or higher) and the rigorous backtesting they've done on various setups.

ES -1 winner, 0 losers

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Last edited by shodson; August 12th, 2009 at 11:26 AM.
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  #12 (permalink)
Member
USA
 
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Thanks for the link! I had just heard about the technique of "closing the gap" (or something like that) and was about to start a thread asking if anyone's backtested the strategy.

Looks like a great site to get some answers.

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  #13 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
sasqatchuanville
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 11 since Jun 2009
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Thank you


Great post!

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  #14 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

8/13 - Couldn't get up early enough today because I was up too late backtesting my own strategies. Unfortunately, that was expensive sleep as I missed an 80+% probability gap setup this morning that would have rewarded gappers +22 or more ticks in the first 30mins of trading. You can check out the summary here:

Gap Trading Video: Fading gaps that follow a green hanging man candle during bullish conditions

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  #15 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

8/17 - 8/21 - Didn't trade this week, was on vacation. There weren't any good opening gap plays either this week so it was a good time to be away from the market. I'll be back in the saddle next week. I can't help but think once the big institutional guys get back from the Hamptons in September they are just going to beat the market down to a pulp.

FYI, I cancelled my LogicalForex subscription. I'm just not into Forex, except for 6E, but they are focused on spot forex, not futures, and I just wasn't using the indicators much so I didn't want to pay for them anymore. Nice people though, if I ever get into Forex I'd check them out again.

Also, my EOT Pro license expired. I wasn't really using it much either. The Bills Arrows v4 looks promising, but it's been in beta. Maybe I'll go back once they release it.

I'm focused on playing opening gaps on the discretionary side and continuing developing some of my automated strategy ideas.


Last edited by shodson; August 22nd, 2009 at 02:46 PM.
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  #16 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
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8/24 and 8/25 - didn't trade, got some sleep instead

8/26 - There was no high probability gap play so I just day traded for a bit into the housing report. I ended up overtrading, made 15 trades on ES and 6E in 1hr. I'm a little rusty since vacation, forgot some of the points of my trading plan. Still ended up with a small profit but overall the day was a wash after commissions.

I made screenshots but my trading computer crashed this morning and now won't boot up, not sure why. I'll have to look at that later.

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Last edited by shodson; August 27th, 2009 at 05:11 PM.
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  #17 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

8/27 - Didn't trade due to technical difficulties (see attached)

Actually, I put on a SIM trade after midnight on my laptop last night (technically today) on the 6E, scalped +8 and +10 (too bad it was SIM). I'm looking to trade larger targets because the commissions are killing me, and/or my win rates aren't high enough. So I tried doubling my target and stop losses and am looking at trading larger time frames.

Had an interesting discussion with RCG and Mirus today. The reports at RCG are aweful, just buy/sells with price and qty, that's it. No timestamps, no commission reporting, etc. RCG said "tough, contact Mirus". So I emailed Byron@Mirus, he promptly called me back and explained that that's how most clearing houses report, and that I should look at NT for more detailed reporting, even though their reporting is not always 100% accurate. As far as commissions it's a little tougher, you just have to know how much each instrument is costing you. On the ES I knew it was $4.40 per round trip, but I didn't know the currency futures (like 6E) cost more, about $5.20 per round trip and that the treasuries/bonds (like ZN) charge less like $3.20 per rt. I guess I should have looked at their website a little better. No wonder a few of you like ZN so much!

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Last edited by shodson; August 27th, 2009 at 02:56 PM.
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  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
Concord, NH USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja trader
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 182 since Jun 2009
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shodson View Post
8/27 - Didn't trade due to technical difficulties (see attached)

Actually, I put on a SIM trade after midnight on my laptop last night (technically today) on the 6E, scalped +8 and +10 (too bad it was SIM). I'm looking to trade larger targets because the commissions are killing me, and/or my win rates aren't high enough. So I tried doubling my target and stop losses and am looking at trading larger time frames.

Had an interesting discussion with RCG and Mirus today. The reports at RCG are aweful, just buy/sells with price and qty, that's it. No timestamps, no commission reporting, etc. RCG said "tough, contact Mirus". So I emailed Byron@Mirus, he promptly called me back and explained that that's how most clearing houses report, and that I should look at NT for more detailed reporting, even though their reporting is not always 100% accurate. As far as commissions it's a little tougher, you just have to know how much each instrument is costing you. On the ES I knew it was $4.40 per round trip, but I didn't know the currency futures (like 6E) cost more, about $5.20 per round trip and that the treasuries/bonds (like ZN) charge less like $3.20 per rt. I guess I should have looked at their website a little better. No wonder a few of you like ZN so much!

Shodson, I have been experiencing that same blue screen lately, I was wondering if you knew of a cure for it happening or even why its happening. This is only as of late, I'm wondering if its because of something to do with any of microsofts automatic updates. I know that this probably goes under a different thread, sorry for that, wasn't sure how to show that blue screen and get it into another thread.

Thanks, Jeff

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  #19 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


jdella View Post
Shodson, I have been experiencing that same blue screen lately, I was wondering if you knew of a cure for it happening or even why its happening. This is only as of late, I'm wondering if its because of something to do with any of microsofts automatic updates. I know that this probably goes under a different thread, sorry for that, wasn't sure how to show that blue screen and get it into another thread.

Thanks, Jeff

For me, I don't think it has anything to do with Windows because after that it had trouble rebooting at all, before it would even try to boot Windows. So I figured maybe I have a bad RAM card. I have 4 1GB RAM cards. I decided to remove one at a time until it would work. I isolated 1 card that, once I took it out, the computer started working again. I don't know if it's the card that's bad or the DIMM slot on the motherboard, but I was just happy to have it working again. I'll isolate the problem more specifically at another time.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


8/31 - The probabilities on fading the gap today were very low, so I didn't do a gap fade which was the right choice as the market opened lower and never closed the gap due to the plunge in the markets in China.

I focused on launching my first automated strategy and launched it later this morning. I'll be posting trades it makes, winning and losing, for all to see as well. It doesn't trade very often so you won't see trades posted every day, but when it does I'll post them.

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