shodson's Trading Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


shodson's Trading Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:97,618 / 761
Created: by shodson Attachments:947

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 947  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

shodson's Trading Journal

  #181 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/15 - Presidents day - NO TRADES

2/16
- No good gap setup, decided not to take any other discretionary trades. NO TRADES

2/17 - Since it had been over a week since we've had a gap trade, and I was up pretty late last night, I decided to give myself the morning off and get an extra hour of sleep. Of course, MTG called a gap trade, though with a higher stop in light of some other risk factors. But in the end it was a successful 4 pt trade. I could have entered later as as price was still around the opening price but it had made one push down and then up and I thought that the fade play was done and I didn't want to go against the system.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-es-gap-filled.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #182 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

Inverse dollar/stock market correlation

At my Meetup tonight we were talking about a lot of things, one being the inverse dollar/stock market correlation. The presiding rule is that when the dollar falls the market goes up, and vice versa. One person was saying that tomorrow will be down, because the dollar strengthened but so did the overall stock market, which is contrary to the rule. And the theory is that currencies lead stocks, so the stock market will have to correct itself tomorrow, unless the dollar weakens overnight.

So I ran a comparison chart on Yahoo finance, comparing the SPY to the UDN. The UDN is an inverse ETF of the UUP, which is an ETF on the dollar index. So theoretically the S&P and the UDN should rise and fall in the same direction at the same time.

Attached is a 3mo chart of this correlation. Ignore the left half of the chart since it starts both lines at 0% it takes a while for the relationship on the chart to take form. Notice the days that the stock market doesnít go in the same direction as the UDN and how the market corrects itself the next day. Notice each green highlighted box that I annotated. The left side of the inside of the box indicates the diverging direction and then the right part of the box is where the market catches up to the inverse dollar move. Then, look at the very right of the chart and todayís disjoint moves. This points to a weaker market tomorrow.

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-dollar-market-correlation.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #183 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


2/18 - I was seriously considering fading the gap today, but the pattern odds were not quite as strong as I would have liked, and when MTG decided not to go for it either I decided to stay away. Plus I was feeling kind of groggy and not quite "in the zone" which kept me away. With all of that said, the gap did fill nicely and quickly for a 3.5pt winner.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guide.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-es.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #184 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/22 - There was a nice gap setup so I took it, put on the trade and jumped in the shower. By the time I got out the gap was filled I had hit my target for a 4pt winner. The MTG moderator used some discretion and had his target 2 ticks above gap fill right at Friday's highs and the beginning of that confluence zone but I just went for the whole gap fill anyways because I wanted to follow the system as expressed by the numbers.

ES: 1 winner: 3@+16 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guide.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-es.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #185 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/23 - MTG decided to not fade the gap. The numbers looked good to me, except the pattern number, and it was 1 tick away from an adjacent zone which had bad numbers. With that in mind I still decided to take the gap but just with 1 contract. I targeted the last bar of yesterday 1107.75 instead of the Globex settlement 1107.50 which MTG targets. It did come up and touch 1107.50 but turned around lower. At that point I put my target back at 1107.50 and tightened my stop to -2pts. When consumer sentiment news came out much lower than expected it raced through my stop.

ES: 1 loser: -8 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guide.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-es.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #186 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/24 - Gap setup was funky, small gap and straddled two zones but in the end opened in a low probability zone so I didn't take a gap trade. Some guys in the chat room did fade the NQ gap because the numbers were so much better and it did fill its 11.5pt gap, though some got stopped out after it may 1 swing toward gap fill, got very close so some guys tightened their stop and got stopped out on the pre-gap-fill reversal.

New home sales came out at 7am (10am Eastern) and I thought I'd try a post-news range breakout setup I've read about and looked at on some charts but not really backtested. Anyways, I ended up scalping 2pts to the short side when it broke below the range. Decided not to trade anymore. It later re-entered the range and broke out the top of the range for what could have been another winner, but I didn't take it. At least I was able to recover yesterday's losing gap trade (which MTG didn't take).

ES: 1 winner: +8 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-nq.png   shodson's Trading Journal-es.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #187 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/25 - Gap setups were a mess, bad probabilities, very large gap due to bad pre-market news, stayed away. Didn't find any other compelling setups so decided not to trade.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guides.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #188 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

2/26 - No good gap setups today, poor probabilities and the gap was less than 1pt so it was easy to not fade the gap. Yesterday was amazing as the gap did actually fill for a 14pt winner but the gap system I follow did not lead me to take it. I was just amazed at how it did fill right near the end of the day.

Took a short trade on the 6B for a nice, quick winner today on some new setups I'm researching. This was my first time trading the 6B. Unfortunately the tick value is 1/2 of the 6E but that's OK I'm still experimenting with this setup and could use it on any of the dollar-pair currency futures contracts as it's just an instrument to play the dollar.

6B: 1 winner: +10 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-6b.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #189 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received

3/1 - No gap trade, indexes closed in mixed directions on Friday (ES and NQ closed up, YM and TF closed down), market gapped up and since Mondays and the first trading day of the month are generally bullish it's not good for fading up gaps. It was a good call as a fade at the open would have resulted in a 5pt loss. I looked for long entries if price would pull back to, say, at gap fill or the daily pivot but I didn't get the price I wanted during the time I was watching the market.

I considered a scalp on the 6E but didn't commit to it. I walked away from my computer for a bit and missed the winning 30-tick trade. I worked on a strategy for this setup over the weekend but didn't finish it yet so I'm not sure how successful this is or how to best trade it yet.

When in doubt, sit it out.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
shodson's Trading Journal-gap-guide.png   shodson's Trading Journal-gap-play.png   shodson's Trading Journal-6e-missed-opportunity.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #190 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,255 received


3/2 - I slept through the open and missed a gap trade call by MTG, though there were some risks. After logging in later I noticed the gap still had not filled and I could have entered with a 2 or 3 point improved entry than if I had entered at the open. I debated doing this for a bit, considering how the probabilities are most likely the same, but now I can do it with a better risk/reward ratio than having entered at the open. In the end though I decided against it since it was not part of my trading plan and considering how most gaps usually fill in the first 90mins and it still had not filled. The gap never did fill, nor what would have been my stop, so most of those that took the trade just closed out their position at the end of the day for a small winner. The video wrap-up is here.

NO TRADES

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > shodson's Trading Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
shodson's Trade Strategy Ideas shodson Elite Automated Trading 11 June 10th, 2011 01:58 PM
shodson's MetaTrader journey shodson MetaQuotes MetaTrader MQL Programming 5 August 18th, 2010 07:17 PM
Shodson HHLLReversal vegasfoster NinjaTrader 2 June 15th, 2010 05:33 AM
J's Trading Journal jinhar Trading Journals 43 April 23rd, 2010 08:15 AM
AR01 Price Area Journal (Not a trading journal) AR01 Emini Index Futures Trading 69 April 2nd, 2010 09:01 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:59 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-18 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 107.20.115.174