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shodson's Trading Journal
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shodson's Trading Journal

  #171 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
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As far as the MA multiple thing, I've heard of others doing that, but I'm not sure what multiple of MA to use for what multiple of time. Plus, since I'm mixing minute charts with tick charts, it could make things even more complicated. I think I'm just going to create a strategy that I can put on my chart that somehow signifies what is going on at higher time frames so I don't have to have 3 separate charts open.

Yes, I agree with your assessment of the 60min chart. The momentum wasn't up, it was just that the downward momentum was weakening, probably going through consolidation. It was not a strong signal to go long, just that the short trend was weakening. Also, in retrospect, the fact that price was still below the MAs in both charts should probably have been an indicator to avoid LONG entries. If I had taken only shorts, and kept trading through all of the signals I took and avoided, I would have had 1 loser and 2 winners (up 1 winner), and avoided 1 losing and 1 winning long.

But at this point we're Monday-morning quarterbacking. I need to set up some sort of back tests with this. I dread the thought of doing thorough backtests on tick charts with Ninja 6.5. Come on NT7, when are you coming out!?!?!?!?!

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  #172 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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2/8 - No good gap setup today. I didn't get screen shots of the gap guides before they changed them, but you can watch their daily gap wrap video for today if you want. The gap did fill but it was small and since the previous trading day was pretty much a doji it made the gap fill probabilities less relevant.

In tonight's attachment I included my entire desktop across both monitors, in case anybody's interested. On the left screen I monitor the MTG chat room and screen sharing. I usually have CNBC streaming in Windows Media Player too but not today. Also, I keep an eye on the 6E but, again, not today, I was just looking for specific setups and if they didn't appear I just ignored the rest of the market.

On the right screen are my NT charts, DOM and market analyzer. I didn't take any trend trades as the 60 and 240 both showed the market consolidating into chop. While there were plenty of scalping opportunities, without knowing the prevailing trend I would have been just gambling.

NO TRADES

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  #173 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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2/9 - Didn't trade, no gap setup. I didn't take any day trades because I couldn't get historical data from Ninja so my trend and momentum indicators were screwed up.

NO TRADES

2/10 - No grap trade, yesterday was pretty much a doji which makes the gap guide probabilities less likely.

Took 4 pullback trades. Got 2 losers going long on pullbacks, but the momentum reversed from long to short. Thought about closing up for the day based on a 2 loss / 2 winner end of day stop but as the market was moving down quickly I found a short pullback for a winner, but then lost it all again on another short pullback signal which ran to the upside as we bounced off of the lows from 2 days ago.

ES: 1 winner, 3 losers: -15 ticks

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  #174 (permalink)
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What's that nifty-looking MTGPriceGuide? Am always interested in SR indies.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #175 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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cclsys View Post
What's that nifty-looking MTGPriceGuide? Am always interested in SR indies.

It's an indicator I developed for MasterTheGap. They sell one for Tradestation (about $99) and I developed one for Ninja for them to sell. I'd give it to you but since they are planning to sell it to the public so I can't. I also included the MTGVolumeSpike indicator which tracks when volume moves 1.65 standard deviations from it's 20-period moving average.

The zones are levels of confluence where multiple levels come together (fibs, pivots, highs/lows, value areas, etc). The yellow zones are stronger and have more levels, red are weaker. They are based on the price guides that MTG publishes every night. I've attached a screen shot of today's levels that I used to set up my confluence zones. It's fairly subjective on what zones you want to watch, but the overall suggestion is to find multiple green levels and their upper/lower yellow level and make that 1 zone of confluence. Zones that don't have any green are less powerful or less likely to act as support/resistance so you can ignore them or mark them red. They publish nightly price guides for ES, YM, NQ and TF as well as the corresponding ETFs (SPY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM, respectively) to their subscribers.

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  #176 (permalink)
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Very nice; pity you can't share it here. Good work.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #177 (permalink)
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Congratulations on your indicator! that's great...

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  #178 (permalink)
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There's more information about the MTG price guides here

Daily Price Guide Overview

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  #179 (permalink)
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2/11 - There was pretty much no gap, and yesterday was nearly a doji, so there was no gap trade to take.

For the rest of the morning I just watched the market. I thought about an ORB trade on the downside, which would have been a winner, but I wasn't fast enough in getting my sell stop order set up. Got another successful long ORB trade later in the morning too. I haven't decided which version or ORB strategy I want to take yet (need backtesting) so I'll step aside until I get some testing results.

But the market was sitting in or around a higher time-frame wedge and I figured it was going to burst out in one direction or another, but I wasn't going to stick around to find out which way. As of now it's pushing hard to the upside.

NO TRADES

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  #180 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
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2/12 - No gap trade, very large gaps are less likely to fill and the market was very weak pre-open.

Thought about taking a bunch of different trades, was about to place orders on some but in the end I stayed away. I just don't have a statistical edge with my other entries until I have tested them so I stayed away.

NO TRADES

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