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Zero to Hero journey
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Created: by ScurvyJoe Attachments:17

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Zero to Hero journey

  #11 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received


Ozquant View Post
PRT works fine for my style of trading , i am more of an intraday swing trader targeting 50% plus of daily range in 1 trade rather than relying on high speed scalping . ASX200 i generally only do 1 trade a day . PRT is perfect for me and allows me to write code to measure what i require easily and produce complete systems .


ASX mornings are perfect as many days >80% of days range is done by 11.30am , This is where measuring everything is handy helping dictate the best times to trade . High volatility periods are really the only times worth sitting in front of screen all day

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Treasury futures are great so i think you are targeting good instruments , bit of macro and correlation involved although not super required if you are just scalping although knowing what data moves treasuries is important so get a handle on that

Thanks. Nice analysis and measurements. The bottom chart looks like volume delta.

I'm trying to balance the speed of scalping vs patience of swing trading to fit my personality. Ultimately, I have had success trading off key sub/res levels although found that success was patchy. I was trading off naked charts then. I figure I can use the DOM alongside the same method to get a stronger confirmation of strength/weakness of a the market when they are near a key level and then just go with the flow. I'm not strictly speaking a scalper although have been known to take advantage of a quick move (momentum) and get out when it got exhausted.

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  #12 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

A bit of an update after a few days being bunkered down doing research and writing my trading plan. I have reached a major milestone in having my trading plan completed. I read somewhere that having your wife/partner read it is a good way to set a high water mark on your thinking. I think that's right and so I submitted my plan for a review. Let the flames begin I say.

Below is my table of contents which I think is fairly thorough. In all honesty, this is probably an overkill but I wanted to cover all the key topics and get to a point where I had a thorough understanding of every moving part, nook and cranny. I still a few unanswered questions but these I belive can only be fine tuned once I'm actually on a platform looking at price action etc. Experience beats everything.

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One of my principles was to balance out broker service vs cost vs sophistication of platform etc while also matching this to my natural approach. As I mentioned above, I am attracted to the Jigsaw platform for a bunch of reasons although I don't consider myself a scalper. In doing some introspection throughout this planning exercise, I did question myself if scalping was the right approach. I guess ultimately I consider myself an intraday trader and whether or not I exit 3 ticks away or 2-3 hours later ultimately depends on each case. Trade what you see, right?

So, now I am ready to open some accounts, move some capital around and give it a good honest crack. Here are some of my trade settings:

1/ Products: I will initially focus on US Treasury products: ZN, ZB, ZF, UB but only trade ZN in my Aus night time session (from 10:30pm onwards - this is the US open). During my daytime (as time permits) I will trade the Nikkei225. The daytime session will not be every day as I work full time but work regularly from home so this sometime offers some opportunity.

2/ Initial capital: $5000 (mainly to manage risk while testing approaches and my playbook)

3/ Sizing: 1 contract per $1500 of account equity. Starting at 1 for a while until I get a good feel for the platform and price action across the products I want to trade. The ZN is $15/tick and Nikkei is $25/tick so this gives me a cost/value ratio of 4:1 on the ZN and 5.3:1 on the Nikkei. Trading 1 contract for now using my risk settings is a reasonable way to balance cost vs value and risk vs reward. I will not scale beyond 1 contract until I generate at least $1500 in profit.

4/ I will attempt to make 2% of equity per week. This is a soft measure at this stage and more a means to keep the score. The real measure is the stats coming out of the journal.

5/ Daily analysis using volume analytics to be done in NinjaTrader/mzPack combo. Execution in Jigsaw. I spent a bit of time trialing various platforms (MC, Sierra, Ninja etc) and ultimately I really found MC confusing. Sierra didn't suite me for now as I wanted to keep running costs down and the UI would also take a long time to learn and configure correctly. It's a great tool which I may come back to at a later point. For now keeping things simple is best.

6/ I will post my after-trade stats and thoughts although this may not happen daily. We'll see how we go.

Good trading

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  #13 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received


Hey everyone

So I managed to get my platform setup and have spent the weekend going through my plans. I was also successful in executing some demo trades with some reasonable results.

One thing that I have learnt is that US Treasuries (while sounding like a great market) are like watching the paint dry. I my need something faster and something that moves in my evening timeframes. Not saying I won't give the ZN, ZB and ZF a go but today these markets were rather sluggish. So I jumped on the CL and saw some action.

The overall stats so far are not too bad. I am particularly pleased with a 57% win rate and while I took some losses early on, I was able to recover nicely.

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I sat through the US Session open and boy the CL moves. That was something to behold. Very nice opening drive move. I nearly jumped on board on that (even just to test out the speed of my connection), but decided to wait until the opening drive is finished and then jump on the reversion back to 56.33, which was a key level from yesterday.

CL was in a range the last few days, trading between 55.90 and 56.33. It was a nice easy setup to wait for the absorption effect from all the people going long on the breakout and then jump onboard once a reversion back to now support eventuated. I then scalped it out for a nice run of green.


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Today I was patient and only stumbled once earlier in the day, when I missed a key resistance level forming on Jigsaw. I went short thinking that CL was breaking down, only to see it reverse and go higher. Oh, well you live and learn I guess. Overall today was a great experience and effort.

Good trading

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  #14 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Prep for today's open. Going to continue looking at CL as I believe there will be better opportunities today. Here is my take on what is happening.

Big Picture (CL 30/07/2019)
Fed meeting on today with talk of a 0.50% cut to rates. Markets have been forecasting Oil to be up.
• Trade tensions lighter due to meetings between Trump and China in 2-3 weeks
• Oil tanker takeover in the Strait of Hormuz still driving a bit of tension but market has been settling down of late.
• Oil prices up to 57.50 from YH 57.07
• Expecting open to be higher towards 58.45 according to analysts

Intraday Technicals
Level Type Level Value
R1 (resistance pivot) 57.50
S1 (support pivot) Key support at 57.15 then PP at 56.65 and S1 at 56.21
YH (yesterday’s high) 57.07
YL (yesterday’s low) 55.80
POC (point of control) 57.27
VWAP (average price) 57.30
HVN (yesterday’s high vol nodes)
• Key support level (S1) at 57.15 with 152 contracts sitting in big queue
• The last 2 hours CL has been trending down back to 57.20 however this looks more like a retracement after a clear up trend since yesterday


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Setup for today
• Trending up market due to expectations of a rate cut fueling Oil demand and growth for US economy
• Fed meeting in progress but no announcement yet
• If CL fails to break 57.15 then go long
• If CL breaks down below 57.15 then go short
• If CL breaks above 57.50 then go long in line with trend and market expectations

Good trading everyone

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  #15 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Review of my session.

Item Score (0-5) Comments

How was the prep? 4 Good prep with detailed comments and all steps followed. I am happy with the process and will continue running with it the time being.
Did you follow the plan? 3 Plan itself was good, unfortunately the market didn’t do as I thought. Very choppy and didn’t hit my levels once – it hit them up and down all the time.

Trade commentary:

Bulls have won the 57.18 battle with 350 contracts printed into the offer (only 179 into bid at 57.17)
• Looks like S1 held at 57.15 and then later it was again defended with a 205 hit into offer
• Another massive support level has formed at 57.05
• I could see the key level at 57.15 being broken down but didn’t take the trade as the risk/reward didn’t look attractive. Another level formed below at 57.05. Shortly after CL retraced back towards 57.15
• Looks like bears are getting absorbed and bulls just keep defending the 57.05 level. Plus a 160 contract line has formed underneath at 57.00
• Both vwap and POC have moved down – time to short?
• Today was very much a whiplash type of day. Up and down like a yoyo. Overall result was poor (-$390 P&L) but lots of learning.
Price action looked like it was bullish but then it started to turn around into a tug of war. At one point I was almost break-even which would have been a good achievement in today’s conditions. Unfortunately, that was elusive today.
• It also looked like US Treasuries would have been a bit better today. First hour up quite well, then a complete reverse in the other direction. I think today a slower market would have been a bit more favourable to the beginner.


Trades: 10
P&L: -390
Win/Loss: 54.2%

How do you feel? (happy, angry, frustrated) 5 Very happy with progress. Overall to battle it out and come out with almost even was a great result.

Stop doing these things: 4 • Over traded today. Must watch out for this next time

Start doing these things: 4 • Recognise extreme volatility and think about trading less or not at all in those times.
• Maybe consider other markets like US Treasuries if CL is too wild
• Have also installed the Gomi OrderFlow tools and it looks like it picked up the key levels a bit better than my manual method. Should investigate if Gomi or mzPack may help here.

Continue doing these things: 3 • Good risk control – although didn’t use stops. I had hotkeys mapped and finger on the FLAT button all the time.
• I can definitely follow the price action and speed is not a problem. Perhaps look to setting up OCO orders so a stop is automatically created behind a position as an emergency. Having the OCOs in place would have stopped me out more today and as a result probably caused me to stop trading sooner.

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  #16 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Big Picture
• CL in an uptrend and respecting the 58.18 minor resistance level
• Fundamentally, CL has been pricing upwards the US rate reduction and increasing demand
• The higher demand is being offset by positive progress with the Iran sanctions talks which if successful could put an additional 2m barrels on the market and drive up supply which was being constrained by OPEC.
• If CL obeys the uptrend then breaking above 58.57 would be the trigger. Otherwise breaking down from 58.17 will signal a down move
• In ZN, there is a clear uptrend in place over the last 2 days, although currently we are expecting the Fed to lower US rates by 25bp which would then put pressure on yields. Possible short trade today in ZN
• Options market is pricing a 80% chance of US rates going down by 25bp
• Euro unemployment lower by 0.1% to 7.5 - demand for petrol products might be a touch higher

Intraday Technicals
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Setup for today
• If CL gets above 58.51 then go long
• If CL gets below 58.30 (HVN) then go short
• If ZN gets above 127’150 then go long
• If ZN gets below 127’115 then go short

Let's see how it goes.

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  #17 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Daily Report Card

Daily P&L: +$6.2k
Win Rate: 57.7%
Profit Factor: 5.9
MAE: 6.3
Trades: 4 (2 wins, 2 losses)

How was the prep (score out of 5)? 4
My prep was good and I was able to get a sense of all the key fundamentals, news and what's generally affecting CL and ZN today. My analysis was spot on for the Open and then I was able to read the price action in the context of the market unfolding as it went. Happy with the process although it coud be simplified a bit. Will run with it for a few days and then look to optimise.

Did you follow the plan (score out of 5)? 2
This was a bit of a problem for me today. My initial plan was to short CL if it went below 58.17, which it did but I misread the exhaustion just below that level. I went short twice at those levels but the market wasn't playing the game and started to reverse. That was a -$300 and a good signal that CL was heading higher. It subsequently did and cracked my 58.51 key level. I went long with two trades but again market was absorbed at that level. I managed to effectively scratch one trade for +$30 and left the other on the chance that CL was heading higher on Fed rates dropping. It didn't and got smashed back to 57.36. That was a bit disheartening because I was sitting in a bit of a drawdown.
Still, at that point I could see that buyers were stepping up and absorbing the offers. It was actually a beatiful thing to watch. At that level, the CL was also almost smack bang touching the trend line, so with buyers stepping up I decided to go with the flow and hit it big on the bottom of the trend pullback. I went long with +48 contracts, added a stop 8 ticks below that and then a scale-out step ladder at 12 cointracts each back toward the top of 58.50 level.
That was an excellent call which played out nicely over the 1.5hours and with an end result a pleasing +$6.2k to the account.

How do you feel (score out of 5)? 4
Feeling happy today but was very tired towards the end of my trading session. Working through this well after midnight is certainly a bit of a challenge. May need to think about working either in an earlier session or playing a different market. Overall ok though.

Stop, Start, Continue?
- I'm happy with progress so far so continue working through this as per my method
- Platform is working well. I will get the full subscription to Journalytix and shift my journal there as it might make things a bit easier and streamlined.
- Need to pay more attention the overall market picture. Today I went back to using 10min charts for my in-trade analysis and focussed less on scalping. That was a good call. I'm not a scalper so trying to do that was probably a bit of a silly decision. I still trade off the DOM and find that really excellent, but the 10min chart just resonates.

Goals for next week?
- Just continue with this as I feel it's starting to come together
- Open my actual funded account (in progress)
- Trade some more demo and test the new Rithmic feed (currently on CQG demo) to make sure everything is working well

Good trading

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  #18 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Daily Prep for 1 Aug 2019

Big Picture, Fundamentals & Catalysts
• US Fed has dropped rates by 25bp as expected although the market had hoped for more and SP500 has sold off quite a bit (down to 2960)
• The API and EIA number came out showing a significantly higher draw in Crude reserves and the CL reacted almost immediately selling down to 57.42 from yesterday’s high of 58.82
• There is a continued increased supply worry resulting from Iran potentially striking a deal to provide extra supply to China (unconfirmed by China).
• Some talk about increased supply (and cheaper) as a result of the EPIC pipeline moving closer to production
• Overall, today the fundamentals are pointing to a downward bias

Intraday Technicals
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• Key levels –
o 58.82 YH
o 57.99 KL R1
o 57.40 KL S1
o 56.88 SUPPORT
o 57.86 vpoc
o 57.79 vwap
• Ranging market today with a strong possibility of continued downward movement possibly into the key support at 56.88 and then 56.02. Minor support exists at 57.29
• Fundamentals point to short bias however the 57.99 level needs to be watched for a possible upward break and 57.40 for a possible short break.

Setup
• If a break occurs on good volume above 57.99 then go long
• If a break occurs below 57.40 (more likely scenario) then go short
• If CL continues to trade in a range like most of today then there is no trade

Good trading everyone

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  #19 (permalink)
Melbourne Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw / NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: S5 / Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Various
 
Posts: 26 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 26 given, 41 received

Daily Report Card

Daily P&L ($): +630
Win Rate (%): 56%
Profit Factor: 1.86
MAE: 6.50
Trades (#): 6

How was the prep (score out of 5)? 4
Prep again was good. I was bang on money in terms of understanding how CL is likely to play out. In fact, it did exactly as I had thought and went to the downside in a major way. Analysis was good and my chart markup spot on.


Did you follow the plan (score out of 5)? 3
I had a “DOH, that sucks” type of session. CL did exactly how I thought it would play out and broke down below my identified 57.40 level. I was a little late to the party but still entered a short trade at 56.95 which was just before a major level smackdown to 56.70. At that point I was ahead +6.2k and really should have stopped at that point. That would have been a good result.
Unfortunately, the emotions got the better of me and I traded some more without actually realising that I was now in the chop zone. I had 2 more small wins to increase P&L to around +7.5k and again should have stopped, but no, in my infinite wisdom I decided to keep going and that’s where my problems started.
The chopping action just got more volatile and over the course of 3 more subsequent trades I basically gave back all my profits. Today I was an idiot which is actually part of my daily check “Don’t be an idiot and trade what you see”. This is a major lesson learnt, I think.


How do you feel (score out of 5)? 2
A bit pissed off with myself to be honest. Well actually, this being demo it has no financial impact, but the learning is real so that is positive. But I should have been better than that.

What can you do better next time?
When in front and you are sitting in a good position, why risk giving it back. I must recognise when the run is over and be comfortable just sitting on my hands.

So, trade less or not at all when conditions aren’t right.

Goals for next week?
- Watch more Jigsaw education videos
- Review all my trades and lessons learnt
- Prepare for next week

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  #20 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw daytradr
Favorite Futures: US Equity Index Futures
 
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Posts: 694 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1,354 given, 1,158 received



ScurvyJoe View Post
I had 2 more small wins to increase P&L to around +7.5k

That's a lot.
Having a quick flick through your thread, I like post #12 with your very comprehensive looking Trade Plan (from the Contents Page). In that post you are talking about the Treasuries but you say you will risk one contract /$1,500 of account capital and you intend to start with $5,000.

You prefer the action in crude and the DOM in post #14 shows three lots, post #18 shows five lots. A $7,500 profit day would be a 150% return on capital in one day! Crude can move very quickly sometimes, especially on inventory days, great if you are on the right side but a good way to lose a lot of money very fast if you aren't.

I would try and make your sim trading as realistic as you can and decide whether the size you are currently trading is what you will be doing when you start live. Otherwise the temptation can be to over trade and not follow your plan because sim trading you were making thousands a day but live, if lucky, because of the correspondingly much smaller size you are only making a fraction of that. You therefore push much harder to try and 'make a decent amount' and end up trading in a completely different way to the time you spent on sim.

If what you currently do on sim isn't what you will be able to do when you start live then you aren't using your time productively because you can't use the knowledge you are gaining. If anything you risk spending time potentially ingraining habits that will be detrimental for you when you first start live with a much lower capacity for risk than you have been practising with.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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