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TraderHewitts Daily Review Journal


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TraderHewitts Daily Review Journal

  #11 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Event risk today:

14:45 Powell speaks

Takeaways from yesterday:

Tending to expect fast moving trends to always spike down to MA, and missing many good entries this way.

UK Open

Day job, missed this

Nymex open:

M5 in range between 58.20 and 57.70, and a smaller range forming espeiclly on M1 between 58.10 and 57.85, look to the open to break this and provide a direction, note this range is large enough to trade micro trend between the extremes.

Daily Review:

US

Missed a couple of entries in first hour, trend didn't pull back to my wholesale zone making them no trades, 2 no fills, 2 deep pullbacks right to SL, however these I left, which was for that part a good read. some missed opportunity however in entering from 0-line at extreme wholesale, this is risky however as trend may be changing or doing a CPB.

Returned again at end of second hour, and got caught in a bad sequence, misread where the HTF resistance would be, entered CT and scratched, which was good, then made a second attempt as market spiked down and stalled, entered a second lot but made a mistake on the SL (didnt increase the SL market order) and nearly got caught in a run-away, so poor management there.

WT entry shortly after made back the bulk of it, in hindsight this entry could have been 1 tick higher on each position, exit was well managed near the lows, bottom stall and 3/4 line.


Ticks: 2 (-$10 though after commissions)


Process goal for tomorrow:

Repeat of today, continue trying to be more aggressive on the faster trends.


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  #12 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Event risk today:

16:00 BOC reports
16:30 Inventories

Takeaways from yesterday:

Need to practice more with better identifying conditions to determine if more or less agression is needed placing the orders.

UK Open

Flat over night, trading above settlement, currently appearing like it wants to break and hold to upside going in London open. Note we are still trading inside the range of that crazy 100 tick spike just before futures close last night.

Nymex open:

Range bound again between 59.30 and 59.05, with bulk of trading between 59.20 and 59.03. BOF at range high as I write this, however trend today has been upwards in general, so favour longs for bigger moves, but both sides tradable in micro-trends. Watch for BOF though at range low.

Note its inventories today which sometimes produces slower ranging action leading into this.

Daily Review:

UK

Frustrating session, missed several if difficult to catch entries, caught an trend entry as market moved higher and promptly got smashed. Possibly should have left this, but like yesterday this trend could have continued. Should not however have tried to enter second lot so close to first, in fact should have left the second lot altogether, which would have almost halved the loss. This was followed by 3 scratches:

CF into trend, scatched on volume at next low, could have made a couple of ticks more but was valid I think in hindsight.

Poorly thought out trade with range, but closer to the middle, scratched out as it went nowhere and I realised how poor my entry was.

Attempt to catch resumption of up trend, scratch with a stop order as selling came in as market tried to move up, frustratingly with 1 tick slippage (was a volume stop so ...) which made it a -commissions instead of covering
commissions of this trade plus another.

Session was (or felt) slow, difficult with bigger swings. Most potential was earlier before I started.

US

Struggled again with trusting the direction of the first hour, half way in took a PB with the long trend, pullback was perhaps a bit fast, I should have possibly left this or expected a deeper entry (but thats what missed me so many entries so...)

When filled though market suddenly become very active, filled a second lot at a very good location , lower and on DB of the last low, scalped the first lot outa bit higher, then took profit on second as it moved a few ticks into profit. Could have made a couple more, but the action was almost too fast to follow for me at the moment, so I feel this was well managed to best profit of the day.

Only issue was on initial entry I was tightening the SL, and the dom recentered as I did this, dropping the SL a long way away, in the event of a run-away here this could have been a big loss, need to think about how to deal with this.

(image to follow in tomorrows post, cannot remote into my trading computor right now)

Ticks: -1

Process goal for tomorrow:

As before, but trying to be more active during first hour of US session.
Try new idea for combo trading 6B and GBP at UK open.

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  #13 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9


Event risk today:

11:30 BOE Stability
14:30 CPI
16:00 Powell again


Takeaways from yesterday:

Did a better job handling some of the trades in terms of fear based exits, plan on trying trading the 6B in the UK session for an hour with CL for an hour in the afternoon (as later starts to get interrupted by family, and the UK morning leaves me alone at home). I used to use 6E on this, but find the range has become low and often overlapped, trying 6B as this seems to be moving more right now (I mirror these into an FX account too, hence need to choose a currency), 6J is a better choice for cost on FX account, but the inverse action can be confusing, plus it does not seem to be moving as much.

UK Open

Trying something different today, trading the 6B at the UK open, although on a primarily similar strategy.
GBP moved up overnight, and currently trading above yesterdays highs, pulled back now to retest this breakout level, weaker pullback indicates we may continue up, however market may now move back under yesterdays high, then unwind the overnight move back to 1.2549


Daily Review:

HORRENDOUS DAY!

Same sh*t as always, the one day I manage to be more aggressive I get smashed every time.
Switching back to sim, true as f*** every trade was a winner, I know its the conditions, but this seems to happen so much I am beginning to wonder.
As seen below ...



Last weeks have been same old same old, tiny wins combined with medium to large losses causing my account to be devoured by the bloodthirsty jaws of inescapable death!



Clearly, as I don't allow losses to run wild (always take the SL), the issue is I just cannot get winners. The issue identified already with cutting winners early using a limit order as soon as it moves out of draw down. Trading though appear follows the uncertainty principle, if I scratch a trade it will be a winner, if I leave it on it will be a loss.

Not being aggressive enough is also an issue, too many oppertunities are being missed, which is leading to low profitable days (that said, if I don't trade the signals they are profitable, again when I actually enter it seems to always go the other way).

Another issue I have found recently (and for months in EU) is the market seem to be getting active later than usual, the open hour is quite and they are quite active close to NY lunch or after (or at least, are active in a way I like), don't know if they are just waiting for Trump to start tweeting or what, but this is an issue as this is the one time I cannot arrange to be at my desk.

And then todays actual positions:



Process goal for tomorrow:

Read conditions better, trade sim if I want winners.



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  #14 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Event risk today:

14:30 USD PPI

Takeaways from yesterday:

Seems market always shafts me when I trade my main account, but is kind to me on sim. But its Friday so lets hope the market gods have left early for a long weekend and give me a break today.

UK Open

6B : Slow uptrend overnight, upward legs seems to be slowing, indicating a potential trend change.
1.2596 is a level to watch, should be lots of shorts stopping out here.
1.2609 is a good one, lots of potential for trapped shorts or new longs initiating here to drive to upside ATR
On downside 1.2558 will have stops below Asian session lows as well as breakout traders trying to catch BO trade.
1.2547 will likely be packed with long stops and potentially new shorts, break of this could initiate a move to downside ATR.
1.2586 is also likely to introduce activity for BO traders trying varieties of london open style breakouts.

Nymex open:


Daily Review:

UK

US



Ticks:
Trades Taken:
Daily Summary:

Process goal for tomorrow:

[Note: trying new thing of filling journal as day progresses, details to come over the day]


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  #15 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Battery dies halfway through updating Fridays post and now forum seems to have blocked me from editing this, so just commenting here quick.

Mostly quiet day, preparing for family coming over weekend.

Ended down as always, didnt have much chance in the afternoon though to make back mornings loss.

6B was very slow at UK open, first trade was a CF back into range scratched, but played better than others, using a stop order behind price to give it a chance.

Second and third trade a SL, analysed on image.

Popped in quick CF on CL after US lunch to make back some, popped quickly and hit target, the congestion, but could have taken more if I had been faster moving exit limit order.

No weekly review, this was mostly covered in Thursdays post I think, not much to add here.


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  #16 (permalink)
markhewitt
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
 
Posts: 17 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Event risk today:

Nothing in particular

Takeaways from last week:

Stop sucking on live.

UK Open

Missed the open, market has been moving down towards spot open, currently looking like it has the potential to BOF/SFP on spot open on the hourly, sosome caution is needed here, could be very range bound for a while now and hard to predict.

Accepting below the spot open around 1.2550 could leave 6B open to retest 1.2560 or even 1.2545 .

Nymex open:

Ranged between 60.30s and 60.50s, "balancing" on Friday settlement.
Range is tradable as a microtrend, watch for stalls on edges, however expect this to break as new session opens, so care needed for range plays.
Watch 60.74 (yesterdays high) for BOF and a potential strong move down if this stall on daily develops into a retest 60.00s

Daily Review:

Slow day, stood aside most of the day. Frustratingly my feeling and "fear" played out, a strong "V" move after open, market surged up then back down again, which is usually the worst action for my strategy, as depth of pullbacks (or even if its a pullback or where strength/weakness) is becomes very hard to determine.

Whats frustrating is whilst this did play out, the actual underlying action was very tradable and it could in fact have been a huge day. Important to read conditions and know when to stand aside , but very difficult to actually get right it seems. After this I took a time out as I felt market would need to reset a bit so I could get a better feel for it, waited a bit long in hindsight, this is something else I need to work on, I stand aside for too long at times.

Actual day resulted in loss of commission, only becuase of execution errors, both trades had mistakes

Trade 1 was counterflow well executed, SL has space below the pin bar, second lot Iwas a buyer together with other "smart"? buyers at everyone else stopped out 1 tick before the pin, BUT, there was then a lot of selling volume and market appeared to be ticking more down, so I started scaling out. In hindsight maybe a bit over-reactive, as trade worked, but not too much given it was counter-trend and not right at a HTF level. However as I went flat instead of being flat for some reason I was once again left short 1 lot. Should have exited immediately I saw that, but gave it a second to see if it could scratch , but got stuck with -5 ticks, wiping out small profit. Need to try figure out exactly how this is happening.

Second trade was after NY lunch (i.e. after kids bedtime here), snatched another quick counterflow, a good entry, long from the bottom of the range, trade work went to my target and beyond, would have made the day positive, BUT I made a mistake dropping the SL order which was meant to be locking in 1 tick profit, instead dropped it literally 1 tick higher and got stopped out on retrace after market missed my TP limit by 1 tick. Whilst close, it does show that my judgement of moving the exit order is getting better, where I previously scratched for 1 tick too early, had it not been for a little mistake here I would have has a good day (good being any day not red)

Ticks: 0
P&L: -$20




Process goal for tomorrow:

Continue working on better identifying the conditions (is this really a trend or more range)
Try to be less aggressive with SL order movement, this is going better but can use improvement, market still needs a little more breathing room than I am giving it



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  #17 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
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markhewitt View Post
Battery dies halfway through updating Fridays post and now forum seems to have blocked me from editing this, so just commenting here quick.

FYI, you have 24 hours after its initial date/time to edit or delete a post before it's permanent.

Just so you know.

Bob.

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Last Updated on July 15, 2019


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