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Another attempt at making a more regular online review on my trading day to help make that final push to consistent profitability I feel I am so close to.
July journal challenge gave me the additional inspiration to take this step!
I trade right now almost exclusively CL futures, previously it was 6E but I have found this market difficult lately, slow and low range.
My style is a very short term trading based primarily on Lance Beggs YTC scalper teachings.
I am hoping that recording my day here will help me to become more accountable to be consistent in my processes, and push me to really try to meet my daily process goals that are currently holding me back.
For the Journal Challenge please say Thank You here:
Market: CL futures primarily, with occasional 6E or YM trades
Platform setup: Ninjatrader 8 with Jigsaw DOM on 2 monitors
Charts: M5 for a higher timeframe view with a M1 as a "trading" timeframe, and a 2-range chart for making actual entries.
I do watch 1-range and 20-tick charts as well to see if they are representing current market motion better, but as it stands I currently prefer moment of CL on 2-range (I use 1-range for 6E and YM)
Time: I aimed to scalp for 1-2 hours from Nymex open, but sometimes try for around London open or US just after lunch, based on family/work commitments.
Method:
Simply put, I attempt to get a feel for current market state, trend or range, then try to determine within that where the future trend will be, the using the Keltner channels and DOM attempt to find good entry points into that movement.
I try to enter only at "wholesale" prices on the Keltner, either below the center line for long or above for short.
Technically, I put on 1 lot on my first entry, then a second deeper into the channel if the first does not immediately move off. However I have been debating this as whilst valid doesn't always feel right, and I feel when I get it right I only get 1 lot, but always blow up with 2, so this will be one of the issue I will try resolve for myself here.
** OPEC meetings all day - unsure of the impact but be more cautious perhaps
** CAD holiday
Didn't trade UK session, family/work plus Monday is often quiet.
Nymex open:
Large gap up on Asia open from settlement with minimal bullish follow through, weakening trend through EU session, weakness after open could lead to a break of the range and a large move down.
Daily Review:
Intermittent internet then a power outage shortly after session open effectively ended todays trading.
Cut only trade early, didn't do well on my process goal : don't be so quick to exit
Stalled but should have taken 4-6 as there was no push to higher given MAE of only 1 tick.
1. Attempt to let the order flow game play out a little more and don't be too quick to exit
2. Related, be less afraid of taking a loss, i.e. don't exit on the first backtick!
For the Journal Challenge please say Thank You here:
** OPEC meetings all day - unsure of the impact but be more cautious perhaps
** 4th of July week - be prepared maybe for slower or thinner action (though the algo's shouldn't take a break!
Takeways from yesterday:
No trading, power outage, one trade cut early, focus on holding longer especially anticipating possible slower day
UK Open
Steady state uptrend on M5, potentially turning on trading timeframe at UK open.
Note gap from Fridays settlement is still unclosed.
Above 59.43 expect 59.75s, remaining below 59.30 potentail return to uptrend at 59s otherwise possibly 58.80, below 58.56's anticipate possible run to Fridays close (as push down runs stops below 58.35's)
Nymex open:
Leading into Nymex open, despite a number of BOFs premis of EU session played out, currently showing downtrend into 58.55 level, with chance for a complex pullback here to go for gap close or BOF. Watch Nymex open for clues as this can change everything.
UPDATE: broke as I posted this, caution required at open to evaluate what happens at gap fill
Daily Review:
UK
Chart says it all, same old same old, all scratches then full loss'es till death do us part.
US
Strong downtrend after breaking below Friday settlement, should have been a huge day but ended down.
Problem:
(1) Totally unable to trust the trend will continue, and always convinced the market will reverse.
Tend to finally give in then too late and enter after the trend is over extended, or always be going counter trend, anticipating too that a reversal is underway.
(2) Don't take enough on winners, every so often the market gods loose focus and let a trade go my way, I cut these early especially if already down, today's last alone could have made the day green, my entries can be very accurate but exits are terrible. I think this stems from times when I can never get it right, cutting at the first sign of a stall saves my account.
14:30 CAD Trade Balance
16:00 ISM Manufacturing
16:30 Crude Inventories
** 4th of July week - be prepared maybe for slower or thinner action (though the algo's shouldn't take a break!
Takeways from yesterday:
1. Use flow to enter more with trend trades, TRUST THE TREND
2. Hold onto winners longer, and tighten stop rather than cut outright
UK Open
Trading above settlement, range-bound betweem 56.60's to 56.30's, expect range to continue until either are broken, may remain range bound all morning. Oppertunities will exist in micro trends from bound to bound.
Nymex open:
Family/day job got me to my desk late, crude sometimes slows into inventories, with only an hour available today switched to 6E trading hopefully a trend that developers after ISM news
Daily Review:
UK
Didn't trade, day job instead. Though expanding, in general range held. Would have been many opportunities for wf/trend entries (as in the microtrend inside the range)
US
Battled to get into positions, action felt slow. Main issue was after while market suddenly got volatile, moving up really fast, after missing two chances to get in I got in way too high (valid channel entry but way too high in curve on M1), market slammed down through both my positions.
Can't connect to broker, screenshot and analysis coming tomorrow.
Still not holding onto winners long enough, and being too cautious waiting for too much confirmation then getting in to trend late.
Nymex open:
Watch open to determine suitability to trade, if too thin stand aside, otherwise attempt to determine if there is a tradable range. Watch for a sudden breakout which may happen in thinner conditions.
With early close today only trading for the 1st hour if conditions seem tradable, otherwise use the time for training on replay.
Watch 6E as well for signs of life in case CL is too thin, currency markets sometimes trend slowing into holiday days.
Daily Review:
US
Mostly chickened out, two scratches today, not worth mentioning but ....
I can see why people grow to believe the broker or market or whatever deity they subscribe to is against them because...
In BOTH cases market rallied seconds after I cut the trade. This happens often too.
Looking at it however, it makes sense, as I use a limit order 1 tick above/below my entry price to scratch so I get a true scratch covering commissions after a bit of back and fill in drawdown just below entry, of course this gets me out at BE when in fact market is in a small way going my way.
Would be better to rather use a stop order and just start accepting that some trades that could have been a scratch or one tick winner would now be a couple of ticks loss to gain those winners I keep missing. Need to get more comfortable giving back some P&L, easy enough on sim but not so much with something on the line.
See I cannot go back to edit prior post, so the review of the 3rd is attached here:
Process goal for tomorrow:
Aside from trusting trend/holding winners attempt to use stop orders in favour of limit orders less for scratching, and accept the additional small loosers and loss of commissions
** Note: Use replay tonight to practice this.
For the Journal Challenge please say Thank You here:
14:30 NFP
** 4th of July week - be prepared maybe for slower or thinner action (though the algo's shouldn't take a break!
Takeways from yesterday:
Too much is being lost recently by trying to scratch out stalls using a limit order above price, pay closer attention to the tick movement (is it more in my direction or more not) at attempt to work an exit with a stop order giving market a chance to pop my way
UK Open
Missed, day job, a break below 56.60 range lower bound of Asia provided a nice downtrend, followed by a slow reversal. Want to try to change schedule to trade this more, it seems to provide some nice moves.
Nymex open:
Didnt manage to trade the open, only got to screens after 16:00, a sharp move down followed by extended narrow range made start hard to read.
Daily Review:
UK
** Actually snagged a quick trade before I left the office, small profits but for once managed to play the position perfectly.
US
Only manage 1 trade in the hour, once downtrend started I kept expecting the pullbacks to be deeper and missed the entire move.
Continue working on avoiding the limit order scratch too early.
Work on waiting for less confirmation, and being more active (it is a scalping strategy after all!)
For the Journal Challenge please say Thank You here:
Performance dropped this week compared to last week, but last week was not as active.
Losses were kept within acceptable bounds, but the 6E loss on the 3rd was more than it should have been.
Though really too few trades to make a meaningful conclusion, it is interesting to note in both weeks the 6E trades pulled my totals down more so than CL, last week would have been positive and this week only just negative.
The main issue was most trades were scratched, thus winners were all tiny. Of the 10 winners 4 were cut for just 1 tick and a further 2 for only 2 ticks.
This is an improvement over last week, but still way too much given many of those went on to profit. Winners in general were cut way too early, with the largest winning group being only 7 ticks.
Also activity was way too low for a scalping strategy, although when I did set a goal of avoiding over trading, I have now been waiting too long or too cautious about which trades to put on, and have let many good opportunities go this week.
Goals for next week:
1. Be more active, wait for less certainty and trade the flow more
2. Give trades more of a chance to go my way by not using a limit order to scratch to soon
Day job this moring, so far there was no major gap over weekend, and price is holding below Friday settlement in general. Potential now after a break and stall above settlement for a BOF or a continution upwards, buyers don't seem to be coming in to defend the break up, so likely to shift back down into 57.52 and 57.42
Nymex open:
Premis for UK session played out, and market moved down to below 57.40 (late Asian low).
Currently trading in a range between +- 57.55s and 57.30s, watch open to see if we break this range, then play for a PBP and trend in new direction, Be alert for BOF especially at open when a break out of the range may be a trap.
If market remains caught in this range, be cautious with micro-trends as there is not much room, look to rather play the edges back into range.
Daily Review:
US
Initial analysis played out, market broke out to the upside on open, then continued to rally but ...
Battled again to get into any positions for real profit, first scratch was valid, second not.
I have noticed in last days I tend not to put on any trades in first hour of open, it may be something about this time period that puts me off, however market as market often moves faster over this hour, the issue may be more related to the fact that I don't like to trade as price move away from the MAs
As before, but also watch for that trend developing around the open, and be more aggressive trying pick entries with shallower pullbacks.
Also going to attempt to trade 1 hour at UK open and 1 hour at Nymex, these may be too short, but the break in between helps with concentration, plus family interruptions are worse in the second hour or so of Nymex, plus no time to unwind between ending session and needing to go directly into family stuff.
For the Journal Challenge please say Thank You here:
