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I have been absent from FIO for awhile and I am going to make an attempt to get back in the routine of keeping up this part of my journal. I do think they are helpful from an accountability perspective, but also because I have always enjoyed reading other trader's journals here and benefiting greatly from their experience.
I reached a point of frustration about a month ago because I was being overwhelmed with new and actionable information and was trying to do too much at one time. It is ironic that I have researched trading, read books, tried stuff, all in my quest to understand trading. Not, mind you, to find the "holy grail", just to gain an understanding of a very complex subject. Then a couple months ago another trader generously shared some information from one of the courses he had taken, and shortly thereafter I got invited into a small trade room where there are a couple of very successful traders. So, suddenly, I was awash in new techniques, new setups, new screens (footprints, market depth, volume profiles, etc) none of which I had used before. And so the frustration set in because I obviously was not proficient in any of those things (yet!) and my trading suffered. I retreated to my Sim account to preserve capital while I regained my footing.
All that said, I certainly have not "mastered" all of that stuff in only a month but I am finally settling back down into a form of rational, calm, systematic trading. If it continues to be positive for another week or so I may even venture back into my Live account!
Today was not stellar because I did make an error. Yep, I'm still making those and that's why I'm still in Sim. My first trade was on a BO from the OR. The trade went well hitting T1 for +4, T2 for +8 and then the third contract was stopped out for +4, a total of 16 ticks.
My error came on the second trade. Price had dropped below the previous SL and I felt s short was in order. However, in violation of my own rules, I failed to wait for confirmation and as a result sold low and bought high for -16 ticks. Now I'm back to zero!
My final trade was after price had ranged for awhile. It appeared to be breaking upward so I went long and hit my T1 for +4. The price retraced and my stop on the second contract was sitting at -1 and was hit. My last contract, which had a wider stop, wandered for awhile and I finally closed it for +4, giving me +7 for the trade.
So for all that, just up $87.50, but that's still better than a loss. Hope everyone else had a stellar day!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Today is a work day, only about an hour to watch the markets and possibly get a trade.
About 15 minutes before the open, I found price backing down from resistance and an upper trend line. I don't normally go counter trend, but this seemed like a good setup. Hit the first target for +4 as price started to move in the minute prior to the open, then about 5 minutes later I hit my second target which, when I saw the downward bias at the open, I had moved down to just above the VWAP. Got 13 ticks at the second target, a total of 17 for the trade.
Did not find another trade in my shortened session, but felt good about $212.50. (Still in Sim though, can't spend that!)
Have a great day!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Was a slow morning in ES. Seems like the Christmas doldrums have already set in, or else everyone was watching the impeachment stuff on TV.
In any case, I took a small scalp prior to the opening, two contracts, got a total of 6 ticks. Then I shorted a breakout pullback off the bottom of the OR. Managed to hit TP1 for +4, but then price wandered back up and hit my stops on the other two contracts for -3, so a grand total of +1 tick on the trade.
Later on, I shorted a rejection from a resistance area and hit TP1 for +4, then TP2 for +8. The third contract lingered for over an hour and I finally boxed it in between my stop and target and was stopped out at +8, making +20 ticks for the trade.
This week ended with a positive balance (still in Sim) and that is great. But, as I said earlier this week, the most positive aspect of my trading this week was that I felt calm and in control. Well, all except yesterday, but I'll get to that.
I can't really point to anything particular that has changed my attitude this week. I've read so much, watched who knows how many hours of video, tried so many different things that it may be like a compost heap where the good stuff appears after shoveling in lots of garbage. Although I've traded various instruments for years, I've only seriously pursued futures trading for about two years now. I know, from everything I've read, that the "typical" time to go from newbie to profitable is often around seven years. Obviously I'm trying to shorten that time frame. Over the past couple years I've had periods of stunning success, then plateaus, then falling down, then starting the cycle over again. And, who knows, this may in fact be another plateau, I have no idea. I can only deal with the present moment and what I have right in front of me.
I do believe there are many, many paths to trading success. Not all of the gurus out there are frauds, although there are plenty of those. There are people making money in this business with vastly different approaches and, as long as they are successful, none of them are "right" or "wrong". It's a matter of finding something that resonates with you, then finding out all you can about that method and practice, practice, practice. I have recently been in trading rooms with successful traders who might say something like, "Going long at 42, TP 45 and 49". Well, if you don't know WHY they are doing that, the information is useless. Well, useless unless what you want to do is have someone else make decisions about your money and your trading. If, on the other hand, you want to understand the markets and understand trading so you can make your own decisions, you have to know WHY they are going long at 42.
In those same trading rooms, I have seen those successful, experienced traders say they are going in on a trade and I can't see it, so I don't. Is it that I don't believe them? No, but I may be using a different strategy, a different time frame, or just a different risk profile. By the same token, I have seen certain times when those traders say they are waiting for the market to show some direction and I have found successful trades. For those same reasons. So it's okay to not blindly follow successful traders but you should certainly pay attention to what they have to share, what strategies have they found worthwhile and, just as important, which have they found worthless. That sort of information from experienced traders can shorten the learning time frame considerably and I am eternally grateful to every trader who has shared their experience with me along the way.
So, those are my thoughts at the end of this week, let's get to the good stuff. I've posted this week's daily results except for yesterday. It was a short day when I only have about an hour to watch the market and maybe find a trade. I had been having such a good week and on Tuesday, a similar short day, I had found one very nice trade. As my hour on Thursday was wearing on, I felt the pressure to keep up the good run and make a trade. So I squeezed one into my criteria that didn't really fit and lost $300! Some days the most successful trade is the one you don't take!
Today it seemed that ES, my primary market for the past couple months, was stagnant. I used to trade CL quite often but during this rebuilding period I have been sticking with ES. Today, however, since I had time while ES lingered, I pulled up the CL screen and it looked very good, a very nice pullback in a trend and so I took it.
It was a quick trade and good for $270.
Then I waited and waited for ES to make a move and finally it seemed to be in a breakout pullback above the OR. It did not run as far as I hoped, but I hit one target and stopped out the second contract for positive ticks as well, a total of $112.50.
Results for the day:
2 Trades (4 contracts)
2 Winners: $382.50
And the weekly stats are as follows:
I hope everyone else had a positive week, either in learning something new or in actual dollars and cents. Have a great weekend!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Over the past couple of months, while I "inched" my way back toward consistency, I have traded ES exclusively and only traded RTH. Now that things are coming back together (slowly, slowly) I am carefully expanding my horizons occasionally. Last night, while in a trade room where others were trading things like crypto (which I don't touch), I did see what I thought was a nice scalping opportunity in CL so I took it. It was good for a quick 10 ticks.
This morning, ES seemed to be headed for a drop at the opening. There are only a couple of trades that I'll take at the opening but this did seem like it would at least be good for a scalp and it was, for 10 ticks.
Next I tried an early entry into what I thought was a pullback, but turned out to be a range. Cost me -8 ticks.
Finally I took a short out of a range and was a bit early. Fortunately I was not stopped out and finally, after about 45 minutes, the price moved and hit both targets for a total of 11 ticks. (I just now noticed that my screenshot cut off the second target. Sorry about that!)
Today's results, including last night:
4 trades (8 contracts)
3 winners: $362.50
1 loser: $100.00
Gross P&L: $262.50
I'll probably show up tomorrow morning but I'm not sure there will be enough volume to trade effectively. Today was pretty slow as it was.
In the meantime, Happy Holidays and Good Trading to All!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
I hate to finish up the day before Christmas with a loss, but that's just the way it is. Last night I tried to scalp CL again in the Asian session. I still do not have a truly effective strategy for scalping in a low volume environment and I am sometimes successful but just as often am not. Last night I tried twice and lost twice, once for -12 ticks and the other for -8. Definitely an area I need to work on.
This morning was sluggish as expected. ES did have a really nice drop at the open. I was not quick enough to nab any of the first few minutes but I did manage to scalp 8 ticks after it retraced and started down again. Then I entered on what I thought would be a pullback but instead price just ranged aimlessly and stopped me out for -12 ticks.
After that there wasn't much opportunity to recoup my losses and of course there was an early close to the market today.
Planning to enjoy family, food and fun for Christmas, and maybe even squeeze in some time to read my latest trading book on volume profiles. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday. Or, as Santa would say, Merry Christmas and Good Trading to All!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Today was a short day for me, only an hour to trade before leaving for work, which equates to only 30 minutes after the ES RTH open. Not much time and sometimes I don't find a trade. Today, I did find one after ES opened, rose out of the OR and pulled back. I went long and then waited and waited and...... After nearly 25 minutes I had to get ready to leave for work and finally scratched the trade for +2 ticks. If it was any consolation, the trade was correct and price finally rose another 18 ticks before turning South. Ah well.....
Results for the day (Sim)
1 trade (2 contracts)
1 winner $25
Hoping for a robust Friday, which they typically are not, and then of course another holiday week next week. Still, I'm positive on the week and feeling good about my trades.
Happy Trading!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Today was a mixed bag, but not unexpected for a Friday. I stayed in Sim in ES today and found a pullback forming just prior to the open. At the open my entry was hit and I got TP1 for +6 ticks and TP2 for +18, so that was great and I probably should have called it a day!
My next trade was what I thought was a pullback off the initial drop from OR, but I entered too early, and price climbed on up hitting my stops for -8 ticks. Still respectable, still could have hung my hat on that, but no. A little later ES went into a range, it appeared to me that it would drop out of that range so I took the first little drop. Should have waited on that one as well. Price did drop as I expected, but not until it had lingered in the range about 30 minutes, long enough swing up and just hit my stops for -16 ticks. Okay, now I'm even. Which is better than being at a loss, but still...
Results for the day (Sim):
3 trades
1 winner $300.00
2 losers: ($300.00)
Just barely posted a positive week. Not as good as last week, but still positive and still feeling pretty good about the week overall. I hope everyone else finished in the black and that you have a spectacular weekend!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
I took last week off from journaling but now hope to be more consistent as we move into 2020.
Last night I switched back to my live account with the intent of trading the micros for at least January, maybe more. Did not pick a good time to go back live with all the war talk and what-not. Lost a trade in MNQ last night, then lost 3 out of 4 trades in MES this morning. I didn't do the screen captures today, believe me there was nothing to learn from them! My only consolation was that some of the very experienced traders in a trade room I visit were confounded by today's markets as well. They had the good sense to shut down their trading mid-morning and wait for a better day. I think the only market they were making money in was gold and I was not trading that.
Good thing I'm in the micros, that would have stung if I was in the minis!
Here's to better days and an excellent 2020.
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
