NW Trader's Journal

March 15th, 2020, 10:34 PM

Interesting time in the Asia session this evening. ES and YM both hit limit-down so even if I had wanted to trade them, they were done for the night. And, the fact is that I wasn't interested anyway unless I can find a period of low enough volatility to let me trade. Maybe by Christmas!

Anyway, I did find that CL was able to provide me with some entries as I continue to learn to use the Slinky setup from Trish Ogilvie of EasyEminiTrade.com. The initial part of the strategy is pretty easy to figure out but there are nuances, just like all strategies, that I am still learning. Nevertheless, it seems to have promise.

In order to get the ATR down to where it fit my risk, I had to start with the 15 second time frame. Pretty quick, but still better than a runaway 100 tick chart because the 15 second intervals are predictable. The first 3 trades (2 contracts each) I managed +5, +3 and +5. Although I could hit my first target, volatility was still playing havoc with my second contract. For the 3 trades I was up 13 ticks.

The 4th trade saw some slippage on my entry, getting filled at two different prices, still managed a +4.

By the 5th and 6th trades I was able to ratchet up the time frame to 1m and still stay within my risk. That clears out some of the noise and makes trades easier. Usually!

I misjudged the 5th trade and had to scramble to scratch it and still took a -10 tick loss. The 6th trade was typical for the evening, +5 on the first, break even on the second. Overall for the two trades I was down 5 ticks.

Overall for the 6 trades (5 winners, 1 loser) I was up $120 in sim. Had I been in my real account, there would of course been my transaction costs to consider. Trading 2 contracts per trade in CL, that comes out to just under $9 per trade so the actual profit would have been more like $70. Always have to remember that trading isn't free!

All in all, not a bad evening and as I said, I continue to feel that the Slinky setup has some merit. If and when volatility begins to ease up I'll be able to test it some more and get a better overall opinion of it. In the meantime, I hope everyone has a great week trading!!

March 16th, 2020, 01:11 PM

More chaos today and again I stayed away from equities. I only had an hour or so to watch the markets this morning and not too long after the CL open at 6:00PT, I began to find some entries. The first two were pretty much text book Slinky trades. The first one got +5 on the first contract and +8 on the second for +13 total, then the second got +5 and BE for +5 total.

The next trade was not on Slinky, but was a standard pullback to the MA, then entry on L2. Had slippage on the entry, hit first target and was stopped on second contract, +4 total.

Final trade was a straight Slinky trade and got TP1 for +5 and TP2 for +14, +19 total.

Four trades for the day and four winners, a total of $410 in sim. If I can maintain some consitency I'll probably switch back to my live account next week despite the volatility. We'll see what sort of news drops over the next few days.

Happy trading, y'all!

March 17th, 2020, 12:15 PM

Pretty good day trading as I continue to use the same strategy. Today I decided to experiment with range bars. Trish Ogilvie (EasyEminiTrade.com) uses them a lot in her trading and I never have used them much so I thought I'd try them. In thinking about range bars, it seems to be that they are a better gauge of "true" price action than time or tick bars that I have used. After all, time-base candles just reflects what happened during a set period, tick bars just reflect what happened during x number of trades, but range bars only develop if price is moving. Who knows! Trish also uses time-based bars sometimes but I thought I'd give range bars a whirl just to see how I felt about them.

As I have found since the craziness started in the markets, CL, 6E and 6J seem to be the markets that offer me reasonable risk for my type of trade. ES and YM are just too wild for me right now. My first trade in CL was a Slinky trade. There was some structure above the trade but I felt I had enough room to at least hit my T1. It did that and I moved my S2 up to catch it on the way down and got +5 at T1 and +6 at S2 for +11 ticks total. My second trade in CL was not a Slinky, but a simple pullback to the MA and entry at H1. I usually wait until H2 and would have had a better trade here if I had done that. As it was, I did hit T1 for +5 but my second contract was BE for+5 total on the trade.

Range bars, like tick bars, are fast when price starts moving. There is a tendency to chase them, a tendency which I usually manage to avoid. However, on this next CL trade, I didn't have my entry set when price suddenly started moving, FOMO got the better of me and I entered several ticks off of where I should have. I then saw that price was stalling, I didn't think my T1 was going to get hit so I scrambled to scratch the trade as best I could. Lost 3 ticks on each contract for -6 total.

My 4th trade was still in CL and was a simple pullback with an H1 entry. Hit T1 for +5 and BE on the second contract for +5 total.

While I was waiting for things to develop in CL, I found 6J setting up for a Slinky trade and took it long. Hit T1 for +8 ticks and had some slippage on my second contract stop for -1, giving me +7 ticks total.

My 6th and 7th trades were back in CL and were both Slinky setups and both short. The 6th trade hit T1 for +5 and T2 for +14, yielding +19 total. My final trade hit T1 for +5 and T2 for +7. I had the second target pretty close to the first because of some structure below the trade that I felt was significant.

I still had some time to go in my normal trading session, but this market is mentally draining and besides, with a sim total of $503.75 for the session, I felt it had been a good, productive morning.

Happy trading, y'all!

March 17th, 2020, 03:33 PM

...and to think I recently moved to indices from currencies because they didn't move enough... took a few 6E trades myself last night, very peaceful LOL

March 18th, 2020, 12:40 PM

Today started out with a dumb move; always reassuring to confirm that I am still human!

This Slinky setup I have been using can do a really good job on retraces providing everything is just right. Now I have always steered away from counter trend moves, preferring to take my bias from my higher time frame (HTF) chart. This morning however, on my first trade, I saw the setup pointing toward a nice retrace and so I went against the HTF and went long on CL. And I paid the price, immediately took a loss of 10 ticks on both contracts, -20 for the trade. I hate it when I start the day in a hole! (And, as you can see, there WAS a retrace a few bars later. I was just too early!)

After I got done slapping myself for that one, I looked to 6J and found a simple pullback and went short. Got +8 on T1 and +7 on S2 for 15 ticks total. Didn't recover all the loss, but it was a start.

For my 3rd and 4th trades I went back to CL, a bit more cautiously this time. Third trade was a Slinky setup that hit T1 for +5 and S2 was BE for +5 ticks total. Fourth trade was a pullback into the same move and hit T1 for +5 and S2 for +2, total of 7 ticks. Now I was finally back to just above breaking even.

Next trade I found was in 6E, a Slinky setup, went short and hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +2, 10 ticks total.

Final trade of the day was back to 6J where I shorted a simple pullback, hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +9, 17 ticks total.

Would have been a VERY nice morning had it not been for my error, but I was happy to finish up on the positive side.

Now all I have to do is go try and find some damn toilet paper!!!

Happy trading y'all!

March 18th, 2020, 11:24 PM

I had some time in the Asia session this evening. It started out just like this morning with a large loss. I took a simple pullback in 6J, shorted at the L2, and got stopped for a max loss plus a little due to slippage. Was down 16 ticks on one contract and 17 on the other for a total of -33 for the trade. Ouch!

While waiting for 6J to re-set, I switched over to CL and found a couple trades there. Both were Slinky trades and both shorts. The first hit T1 for +5 and T2 for +16, total for the trade of 21 ticks. The second T1 for +5 and T2 for +15, total of +20 ticks for that one. Now I was feeling bettter!

Finally I returned to 6J as it was setting up what I thought was a textbook Slinky trade. After the entry, price stalled and I got a bad feeling and tried to scratch at BE. Slippage got me a little and I lost 1 tick on each contract, total of -2 ticks.

Overall it was a gross sim profit of $191.25 and I felt good about that, especially given a relatively short time in the Asia session. I'll have to miss the RTH open tomorrow but hope to get in some late morning trading.

Good luck to all!

March 19th, 2020, 12:22 PM

Had to go on an early morning hunt for toilet paper and other supplies :car: so I missed the RTH open. Could have saved myself the trouble. Not only was there no TP, sanitizers, kleenex, etc, there was also no ground beef, chicken and a bunch of other stuff. I assume there are a bunch of people sitting around with 300 days of supplies hoarded. Good grief!

Anyway, I managed to get back almost 90 minutes after the open. And, as I have done for 3 sessions in a row, my first trade was a max loss! Dang! 6E was in a range and that was a warning, or should have been, but there was indication that it might break out just enough to make some ticks and I had a good Slinky entry. Nope! Took 16 tick loss on each contract, -32 for the trade and once again I had a $200 deficit to make up before seeing black ink.

CL had gone on a run up early so I waited for the retrace. Took a Slinky entry short, hit T1 for +5 ticks and T2 for 26 yielding 31 ticks for the trade. Then price pulled back and gave me another Slinky setup, went short again and hit T1 for +5, S2 for +2, +7 total.

I took a look at ES and YM, they have been slowing down a bit but I decided to stay with 6E, 6J and CL for a while longer. For my last trade I took another Slinky setup in CL short and got T1 for +5 and T2 for +6, +11 ticks total.

Except for stumbling out of the gate again, I felt good about the total results given that I only had about an hour to trade this morning. I'm still in sim but I have started adding commissions in the Trade Performance to give a more realistic number.

Hope everyone had a positive day today!

March 19th, 2020, 10:51 PM

Traded the Asia session for a while this evening. The first 2 trades were in CL. On the first one I was lucky. I took a pullback trade long but the Slinky setup was in Sell mode. It stalled for a bit finally giving me T1 for +5 before hitting S2 for BE, +5 ticks total. Second trade was a Slinky setup, hit T1 for +5 and S2 for +3, total of +8 ticks.

While I waited for CL to set up again I switched over to 6J and took a breakout trade. I don't usually take that trade but it looked pretty clear to me and I hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +2, total of 10 ticks.

Last trade of the evening was back to CL. It was a straight Slinky trade and hit T1 for +5 and S2 for +2, total of +7 ticks.

At this point I was 4 for 4, and after commissions I was up in sim by $226.74 for the session and, combined with this morning put me near $500 and I didn't want to spoil a nice day.

Happy trading, y'all!

March 20th, 2020, 12:33 PM

Busy session for me, especially for a Friday. Started off thinking I might hit my daily loss limit after just 3 trades, then managed to turn it around into a positive day. Ended up taking 9 trades which is a bit above my current average.

First trade in CL was a max loss. On this loss and my 3rd trade, also a max loss, I found that I am not being cautious enough when price settles into a temporary range. I've got to be more aware of those and make sure I only enter after price has decisively moved out of the range. Both of my big losses today were ones where the signal was good but the fact that price was ranging should have alerted me to ignore the signal. Hopefully that is a lesson learned. The first trade was a short on a pullback that immediately reversed and hit both contracts for -10 ticks each, -20 for the trade.

While I waited for another setup in CL, I switched over to 6E, found a small pullback and shorted it. Hit T1 for +8 and S2 for -1, a total of +7 ticks.

I went back to CL, found a nice Slinky setup but, as noted above, failed to see the significance of the small range. Went short and took an immediate hit on both contracts, -20 for the trade. At this point I am wondering if I'm going to hit my daily loss limit and be done for the day! However, I did then find a pullback, still in CL, went short and hit T1 for +5 and S2 for BE, +5 ticks for the trade. At this point I'm still underwater but restored my confidence just a little.

After that I found a nice Slinky setup in CL, went short once again, this time hitting T1 for +5 and T2 for +20, +25 ticks for the trade. At this point I'm only down about $50 gross, my confidence is on the mend, so I took a break for breakfast.

Back from breakfast, fresh cup of coffee in hand, first thing I found was another Slinky setup in CL, went short and hit T1 for +5 and T2 for +15, total of +20 ticks and I am finally in the black for the first time of the day!

While CL ranged a bit, I moved over to 6J, found a small pullback there and shorted it, got T1 for +8 and S2 for BE, total of 8 ticks.

CL was still ranging so I moved back to 6E, found a Slinky setup there and shorted it, got T1 for +8 and S2 was BE, so +8 ticks total.

My final trade was back to 6J as CL seemed stuck. I took what I thought looked like a good Slinky setup but failed to notice that my indicators were warning of a possible pullback. Once in the trade I saw that and scrambled to scratch the trade which I did for BE on both contracts so it just cost the commissions. Afterward the price continued on in my direction and would have made a positive trade (I didn't bother with a screenshot of this one) It made me realize that I was getting jumpy and worrying about protecting my profit rather than concentrating on the trades. I had hoped for a $1,000 week despite a horrible Monday where I hit my daily loss in one session and I was close to it. I decided that it was time to quit for the week.

Ended up with $168.84 for the day after commissions in sim, and $928.66 for the week. I feel very good about that! I think the strategy is working well and that I learned quite a bit this week.

I hope everyone has a great weekend!

March 22nd, 2020, 11:33 PM

Got the week off to an ugly start this evening in the Asia Session. Did not print all my screens because there were 8 trades and I would have had to select the ugliest.

My first trade in 6E was a pullback. Entry looked good and then I accidently deleted my stops and targets. The trade was moving in my direction but I do not trade without stops in place so I scrambled and scratched the trade for a small gain of 6 ticks. The price moved on in my favor so when another pullback set up a few minutes later I took it without checking trend and realizing that the trend was mature and poised for a retrace. Which it did, to the tune of a 36 tick loss. Next price set up for a breakout and I took that one long and it immediately retraced for a loss of 33 ticks.

Holy cow! I was now down enough that one more big loser would make me hit my daily loss limit and I would not be trading come tomorrow morning! As I sat looking at my trades, I realized that none of the 3 trades were based on the strategy I have been using successfully the past week, or so. True, they were valid entries using setups I have learned before and used successfully, but just not the Slinky setup I have been using. So, I vowed to use only the slinky setup from then on.

After that, I managed small winners on trades 4-7, but could not get a runner because the price was pretty much in a range. Finally, my last trade lost 24 ticks. I was still down some but not quite as much as I had been earlier. I at least have some wiggle room to start trading tomorrow and see if I can stay with my program. Not the worst session I've ever had, not even close, but I hate to start the week in a hole.

So, the good news is that I'll be at the computer in the morning giving it a go. Good luck everyone!

NW Trader's Journal

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NW Trader's Journal