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After hitting my maximum daily loss yesterday, and doing some serious over-trading in order to do that, I decided I'm going to limit the number of trades for a while. This is purely arbitrary and has no logic other than I will just have a mandatory stop on the number of trades per day. My hope is that, since I enjoy trading, I will be forced to sit and wait for only the trades that best fit my strategy. So, unless I hit my daily loss limit first, I'll limit my trades to 3-5 per session for now. Only time will tell if that has a positive impact on my trading.
My first trade today was a short in 6E. My first contract hit T1 for +8 quickly, so quickly in fact that I failed to move my stop as I usually do and price backed up and hit S2 for -18, giving me a loss of -10 ticks for the trade.
Second trade was a pullback in 6E, went short and hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +35, total +43 for he trade. Best trade of the day.
Third trade, also in 6E, was a short out of a range. I should have waited until price broke decisively out of the range before entering. My short backed up on both contracts for a total loss of -34 ticks.
As 6E stalled I took a look at CL and found a short there that hit T1 for +5 but S2 was BE, so just +5 for the trade.
Should have quit right there as I was just barely into profit. In fact, I may use that as my criteria for whether to quit at 3, 4 or 5 trades. Maybe I'll stipulate that if I'm in the black at any one of those points, I quit for the session. In any case, would have been better this morning because my next trade was in 6J. Took a long on a pullback that immediately failed and hit both stops for a total of -18 ticks.
So, although not a disastrous day like yesterday, I still ended up down $114.55 including fees and commissions. Looking forward to tomorrow and hoping my trade selection will improve with these new limits.
Happy trading, y'all!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Today I pretty much followed my strategy along with my new rule to prevent over-trading. I only place 3-5 trades per day and if I am in profit at the 3rd or 4th, I quit then. I am hopeful that this will force me into waiting for only those trades that meet every criteria for an entry. Today I placed three trades, all were winners even though the amount of profit was relatively small.
All trades were in 6E today. The first one was on a break below some support. I hit T1 for +8 ticks and S2 for -3, a total of +5 ticks for the trade.
I have been experimenting with better stop management on my second contract. I normally use an arbitrary $50 TP on the first contract, which will be familiar to those following Mac's PATs strategy. I normally move my S2 to BE once T1 is hit, thereby preserving at least the scalp. In volatile markets, naturally I get hit on that a lot, but I've still got the $50. It's when the second contract begins to move that I have started loosening up that S2. Once it moves a bit beyond my BE, then I follow the stop but not as close as I was doing previously. That seems to help hang on to a runner for a bit longer. And, if the price has started trending, when I do get hit on the S2, it is often a pullback that may be ripe for a re-entry. For this first trade, I actually pulled by S2 back from BE and that's when it got hit. That's not something I normally do and I was just experimenting this morning.
Second trade was pretty much a Slinky trade but with an early entry. The HTF chart was in agreement with my Trading Time Frame so I went ahead early. I made T1 for +8, then had started to move my S2 when it was hit for +1, so +9 ticks for the trade.
For my last trade, the Slinky setup as well as my HTF charts indicated a long and I hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +4, total of 12 ticks. And, since this was my third trade and I was in profit, that was the end of the morning session for me.
So I ended up with 18 ticks or $162.50 for the morning. I won't be retiring right away on that but I am pleased with the result and also felt good about the new limit on trading. That may be, and in fact probably is, a temporary measure to help rein in my over-trading. That is a peculiar malady that has only recently started being a problem and I need to put an end to it.
Happy trading everybody!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
This evening's Asia session reminded me of the pre-COVID-19 days. I remembered tonight why I did not trade 6E in the Asia session in those days: it's like watching paint dry!
My first trade took so long to develop that I finally set my stops and targets and went to fix dinner. I knew I wouldn't be able to trail my stops but I'd either get stopped out, get my scalp or get both targets. As it turned out, the trade took exactly one hour (!!) to finish up and I got T1 for +8 ticks and S2 was BE, so at least there was +8 ticks for the trade.
Second trade was a short entry just above VWAP support. Not usually a good place to enter but price had tested VWAP 3 times already and the HTF trend was downward so I felt there was good potential. On this one (which "only" took 20 minutes) I hit T1 for +8 and followed the second contract down but ended up hitting T2 just above support for +15, a total of 23 ticks.
The trades took so long that I didn't even feel like waiting around for my third trade. I'll take the 31 ticks ($193.75) and call it a night.
Hope everyone has fun tomorrow morning when the unemployment numbers hit! The forecast is for 1 Mil (over last months 281K). What will the markets do if the number is something like 2 Mil?
Happy trading everyone!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
I continued trading in 6E today with good results. My first trade I was lucky to pull out a winner. I sat down at the computer, updated my chart, saw a nice pullback and entered. Unfortunately I did this without checking my HTF charts! I do this on the first trade of the day often enough that I have thought of just scratching the first trade no matter how good it looks because I probably don't have the complete picture yet! Had I looked at the HTF charts and gotten everything in context, I would not have taken the trade. As I said, I got lucky, hit T1 for +8 and had some slippage that gave me S2 with -2 ticks, +6 total for the trade.
While waiting for another trade to set up, I passed on a retracement because it was going against the HTF trend. Even though all my indicators were lined up for a valid trade, I passed on it. More about this later, but that trade would have yielded 29 ticks! Coulda-Woulda-Shoulda!
The next trade I actually entered was long for T1 +8 and S2 +4, total of +12 ticks.
While waiting for the next trade I once again passed on a trade that my indicators were showing as valid. In this case, price had made a lower high in an fairly mature uptrend and my "feeling" was that the trend was going to break so I wasn't interested in a long trade. Once again, I was wrong and my indicators were right, the trade would have yielded 41 ticks (!!) using my standard targets and stops.
My third trade was a pullback which made it to T1 for +8 but got stopped at S2 for BE, total of +8 ticks.
Following my current rule to limit trading, since I was in profit at the end of my third trade, I was done for the session. Not spectacular, but still profit with 26 ticks total ($162.50)
What I hope I learned today was to trust my indicators and setups. I mean, after all, I've spent the last couple years studying strategies and indicators and trying to come up with something that makes sense to me. Although that is something that will change as the market changes (so I don't plan to ever quit studying), I do feel that my current strategy is workable for the moment. So, given that, why the F%#@ am I not trusting the strategy and going instead with my "feeling" about a trade?? Good question and a lesson learned!
Happy trading everyone!!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Only had time for 1 trade in the Asia session this evening. Just like last night, things are moving slowly in the evening sessions once again. This trade took almost 40 minutes start to finish. I took a long entry and hit T1 for +8 and T2 for +22, total for the trade of +30 ticks.
Stayed with my strategy and felt good about the trade. Wish I had been able to start a little earlier, but I'll take the 30 ticks ($187.50) and be very happy to call it a night.
See you all back here tomorrow for, hopefully, a big Friday wrap-up! Good luck!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Started out this morning with a nice trade in 6E. I entered a bit early and thought for a few minutes that I might take a max loss because of that, but fortunately price turned around and went in my direction. Hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +54, total of +62 ticks on the trade. Wish I could start every day like this!
The next trade was one I shouldn't have taken. My indicators showed the potential for a bounce away from me so I took the second entry instead of the first. The correct action would have been to avoid the trade completely! Lost 15 ticks on each contract, or -30 ticks for the trade. Ugh!
Third trade was a few minutes later and worked out better even though I didn't get a runner. Hit T1 for +8 and S2 hit slippage for -1, total of +7 ticks for the trade.
Following my current, temporary limit on trading, since I was in profit after the 3rd trade I was done for the day. That second trade was the first loss I've taken in 3 days but I was happy to end the session up 39 ticks ($243.75). And, although the start of the week was somewhat disastrous, I am very pleased with the changes I made mid-week both to my strategy and to cure my over-trading. I know my trading limit is a temporary and arbitrary move, but it does make me focus a bit more on each trade knowing that I've only got a few trades to make. Hopefully I will continue to see positive results going forward.
I hope everyone has a happy, safe and healthy weekend!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
I sort of stumbled into the new week in the Asia session tonight. First I decided to alter my trade limit rule from last week by simply saying that if I am in profit at trade 3, then I can take a 4th and possibly 5th if still in profit. Last week I just quit at trade 3 if I was in profit. As it turns out, I should have stuck with that rule tonight!
First trade was a long and I miscalculated the profit potential. I don't usually trade the Asia session quite as early and as I glanced at the chart I thought I had just enough room for my scalp before the first resistance. In fact, because the charts weren't displaying much range, I didn't have nearly that much. As soon as I entered of course my ATM placed my stops correctly and I realized that I only had half as much room as I thought so I scratched the trade and came away with +3 ticks. Turned out that the trade made it past the resistance and kept climbing.
My next trade was another lesson in distracted trading. After I entered a thunderstorm hit the area and I started being concerned about my power going out (even with battery backup) and started thinking about moving my stops up. Then my spouse came in and insisted that my help was needed RIGHT NOW, so I went ahead and moved my stops and went to see what the panic was. When I came back, my stop had been hit and price had moved on in my original direction and hit where my target had been. My lesson from last week was to trust the trade, but I get nervous when walking away from the computer even if the stops and targets are all set. I lost 5 ticks per contract, -10 for the trade.
Third trade was short, hit T1 for +8 and S2 for +4, total of +12 ticks.
Now, since I was just barely in profit, I looked for a 4th trade. This time I went long, all indicators were positive, I entered correctly, the trade simply didn't work and I took a 22 tick loss on it.
Given that this was my 4th trade and I was now in a loss for the session, that meant I was done for the night. Hate to start the week in the hole (-17 ticks, -$106.25) but it's not as bad as some of the sessions I had earlier this month before I started taking some corrective action.
Looking forward to tomorrow!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Sort of a frustrating day, and I don't normally get frustrated. 6E was ranging most of the morning and I guess after all the up and down moves of the past couple weeks it was weird to be in a ranging day.
I didn't take any trades for awhile, waiting for price to break out of the range. The range was just barely over $200 wide and I don't like to take range trades unless I've got some room. Nevertheless I finally took a range trade from near the top, got T1 for +8 but price didn't continue right away and S2 was tripped for -1, +7 on the trade. Not terrible.
Then price did drop out of the range and I thought it was pulling back so I traded what I thought was a good pullback. Instead, price had just dropped into another range, moved on back up and hit both stops for a total of -28 ticks.
Waited and waited, actually waited past when I normally stop trading which was probably a mistake. I should have just called it a day and booked the loss. Anyway, price did finally give some indications of downward movement so I entered, didn't even get to T1, took out both my stops for -14 ticks.
So I ended up down 35 ticks ($218.75). This ranging day was a surprise so I'll be interested to see what the rest of the week brings.
Hope everyone else got off to a better start to the week than I did!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Boy, am I glad March is over. I took the worst one month beating I've ever had, hit my weekly loss stop TWICE in the month. And it was up and down emotionally as well. The last half of last week I started using a new strategy and for three days I was just killing it!. I thought I had turned a corner for sure, until I got to this week. By Tuesday afternoon I had hit my weekly stop loss limit again and it had me shaking my head questioning this whole trading enterprise and adding up all the money I have donated to the markets over the past couple of years. Sheesh!
But then I took a deep breath, took a nice long walk and simmered down. I took stock of things and reaffirmed that I do believe I'm bright enough to trade and (except for occasional melt-downs) able to keep a stable emotional outlook. And, fortunately, I happened to have signed up for an webinar yesterday from Trish Ogilvie (EasyEminiTrade.com) who is the person who developed the strategy I am currently using.
I realized while watching the webinar that was not putting enough emphasis on the LTF S/R areas. I am currently using range charts as my trading chart (range varies with instrument and volatility) but I do mark my HTF S/R on my trading chart and they are derived from a 15 minute chart. However Trish (and some of the other courses I've taken) emphasizes the importance of drawing and paying attention to LTF S/R which I have only given an occasional passing glance. To be honest, when I have tried it I ended up with so many lines on my charts that i could hardly see the price! Nevertheless, after the webinar I went back and looked at some of my charts and saw that in many cases I was buying right into resistance and selling into support IF I had marked the LTF S/R areas.
So I went back into my platform and rearranged it a bit, making it so that I could mark LTF S/R on a smaller 1 minute chart off to the side and have those lines automatically appear on my trading chart. And I still have a small 15 minute chart off to the side to keep the overall market context in view. And, yes, I do have a LOT of lines on my chart now, but I am now seeing where I probably don't have enough room to even get my scalp, much less have enough room for a potential runner.
I gave it a try this morning and it does seem to work better this way. It is more intense mentally because I am drawing S/R constantly on one chart while watching price on another, but it is workable. And of course, one morning or one week is not absolute proof, but I tried it in ES, 6E and CL (my favorite 3 markets at the moment) and the method seemed to work well. Rather than posting all my trades as I usually do, I thought I'd just post one that was representative of what my chart looks like and how one trade worked. I'm not even sure if every one in the FIO community wants to see every trade and every chart. I often wondered if people find that tiresome. Anyway, here is an ES trade from this morning.
The bright blue (Cyan) line is HTF S/R, while the dull blue line is LTF S/R. As price dipped toward the HTF Support, my indicator was showing the possibly of a bounce and that was a good spot to expect one. I entered on the second entry after the bounce. I took my scalp at +4 ticks, moved my second stop to BE and set my second target just under the LTF resistance. The trade netted T1 for +4 and T2 for +18, total of 22 ticks or $275.
I ended up with 7 trades altogether, 86% win ratio and a gross of $700. (I'm in Sim because I hit my weekly stop loss)
I'll be interested to see if this addition to the strategy continues to be helpful. I sure hope so, although I am a fairly charitable person, I would love to recover some of the donations I have made to the markets!
Happy Trading everyone! Oh, and give me some feedback on whether you think posting EVERY trade is helpful or just tiresome.
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
but I am pleased with the result and also felt good about the new limit on trading. That may be, and in fact probably is, a temporary measure to help rein in my over-trading. That is a peculiar malady that has only recently started being a problem and I need to put an end to it. 
The forecast is for 1 Mil (over last months 281K). What will the markets do if the number is something like 2 Mil? 
