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Yep, I'm doing that. I think I've got 5/3/2 for short term at the moment. I had to monkey around a bit with the chart settings for MES since the volume is relatively low compared to ES. I've found that 150/450/1350 seem to be just about right. Also trying it with time-based charts as well. Could be that I am just not putting it all together properly but I'll keep at it. Thanks for checking in!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Today I continued blending a strategy shared by @Wizard3ootz into my own style of trading. After several weeks of trying different things and having some success and some failure, I think I am finally edging toward a coherent strategy that I hope will provide me with the edge I need.
Today in MES I first entered a PB and shortly thereafter realized I had entered too early. I still felt confident about the PB and that I was only a few bars early so I did something I almost never do and that is I moved my stops out just a bit. That gave the PB the room it needed to turn. I hit Target 1 for +6 ticks and Target 2 for 18 ticks, 24 ticks total.
My second trade was on the 5th wave and, not surprisingly, was a short one as the trend got ready to change. I did manage to hit Target 1 for +6 ticks but Stop 2 was hit for BE, giving me +6 total.
The final trade was a typical Friday sluggish trade. It lasted over an hour and I'm not used to that sort of thing. It was only a 3rd wave and it took off with good energy hitting Target 1 for +6 ticks. Then it stalled for 20 minutes before moving up and stalling again at the opening price. My Target 2 was set 1 tick above that, just below an R level. Price stalled for 25 minutes and I could have closed it but wanted to see if it would ultimately push up. Finally I was ready to go to the gym and price started moving down so I moved Stop 2 up to avoid losing what I had and got +10 ticks there for a total of 16 ticks.
I only had 10 trades for the week and a 60% win rate. However, my Win/Loss Size Ratio was upside down so I ended up with a small loss for the week.
I was happy to end the week on a high note. I am going to stay in the micros for at least another week. If I show positive, consistent results next week then I will consider moving back to ES.
I hope everyone else had a good day as well and wish you all an enjoyable weekend!
Cheers!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Very sluggish in MES today, I assume that is due to the Veterans' Day holiday. I took one trade this morning that looked like a good PB opportunity, then it backed right up and took me out for 16 ticks. Then I looked at my indicators and two of them had clearly shown a changing trend and I overlooked them. So, I am not happy with the loss or the fact that I am not yet systematically checking everything prior to a trade. However, I am pleased that the indicators I am using were correct and would have kept me out of that trade if I had checked. I may need to institute another trade rule: Never take my FIRST trade until I've had my SECOND cup of coffee!!
I had to leave the house at 9:30PT, but I did find one scalp to take but it stalled so I scratched it at BE.
Yesterday was my short day, only 30 minutes after the RTH open to trade before heading to work. Didn't have time to post afterwards but I did manage two small trades for +5 and +10 ticks.
Today I found a trade just prior to the open. It was into a well developed trend so I watched my stop closely figuring the trend was close to changing. Managed to hit first target for +6 ticks and moved my second stop so it was it at +6 ticks as well.
My second trade was a pullback in the new trend, but I misjudged as the pullback was just starting its second leg. I lost 16 ticks on that one. Afterwards I drew my trend lines and saw that if I had drawn them earlier I would have had clear warning that the pullback was not complete. Then I took the same pullback when it actually was the correct time, hit first target for +6 ticks and hit second target for +16 ticks.
Later I did take one more trade as the trend matured. After I was in the trade the movement just seemed weak and I scratched it for +2 ticks. Later the price moved up and would have hit my first target but then turned back and would have hit my second stop, probably for BE. Still, I don't regret following my instinct to scratch, sometimes you just have to go with what you feel.
I am pleased with the week so far. I am beginning to get comfortable with the indicators, but I still have plenty to learn. Hopefully the week will continue to be positive as I am looking forward to returning to ES, but I won't do so until I am feeling confident and showing at least some consistency.
Happy trading!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Just 30 minutes to spare before the open and 30 minutes after and then I had to go to work. I did manage to find two trades.
Before the open I found a scalp on MES and took it. Price lingered a bit and I aggressively moved my stops ultimately closing out at BE. Price did ultimately move in my direction to my scalp target and would not have stopped me out at my original settings. Stop management is an area I am working on. In the past I managed my stops very aggressively and, predictably, found that I was missing out on eventual price movement by not allowing it enough room. So then I tried to back off of that a bit and found that I was taking full losses on 2 contracts because I held my stops and kept hoping it would reverse. Those full size losses are a bear because at that point I now need that much of a win just to break even. So I have gone back to aggressive management but I really haven't found that "happy medium" as yet.
I did find another trade before leaving for work. It was a standard pullback but just didn't run as far as I hoped. I did hit my first target for +6 and by the time price backed up my second stop was hit for +2, a total of +8 ticks.
Today's results:
2 trades
1 BE (Not really break even when fees & commissions figured in!)
1 Winner, 8 ticks, $10
Still feeling very positive about my results and trading experiences this week. If I can close the week on a positive note I may move to ES again starting next week. We shall see!
I hope everyone had a great day!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Well, I didn't have the spectacular finish to my week that I would have liked, but I'm still learning and I'm still in the game, so there's that.
My first 3 trades in MES this morning I did not coordinate all of the indicators and price action in the manner that I am working towards. As a result, the first trade I was too early into a trade, -12 ticks, the second stalled so I scratched for BE, and the third I missed one key indicator and paid with -16 ticks. Not a great TGIF beginning!
My next two trades I finally was hitting on all cylinders. The two wins did not garner enough ticks to turn a losing day into a winning one, but more importantly they reassured me that I can focus on all the elements I need to simultaneously when I set my mind to it. And that's a good thing!
I was hoping for an absolutely flawless day so that would make deciding to go back to the ES next week easy. As it is, I think I'll do some playback trading over the weekend before I make that decision. Since the volumes are so different from MES to ES and I have to use different tick screens for each market, I may decide to sim trade ES next week. I don't really believe in the value of long-term sim trading, I do think a week or so can help me smooth out any wrinkles. I'll see how the playback trading goes and will see everyone back here on Monday morning.
Have a great weekend!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
I didn't post yesterday because I spent the day listening in on a trade room I had been invited to and then just fiddlin' around with ES in Sim.
I am trading in Sim this week in ES. I have been trading MES live but the volume is so different in ES that even though the charts look the same the fact is that they trade differently. So before I switch back to live in ES I decided I wanted to go with Sim for at least a week.
Today is one of my short days, with 30 minutes before and after the RTH open to trade before leaving for work. The first setup came 3 minutes before the open and I declined to take it. My general rule is that I don't take trades within 10 minutes of the open because my experience has not been good here. The exception is a specific trade I will take ONLY at the open if the conditions are right. Today they weren't but, as luck would have it, the ES ran for 5 full points before it paused for a PB that gave me another setup. I took that one, hit first target for +6 ticks, then manually followed my stop on the second contract. I had a target set way down at 3116, just above some S/R, but price reversed before it got there and hit my stop for +11 ticks, a total of +17 on the trade. And then I had to go to work!
Right now I am trying to perfect what I've got as far as a strategy goes. In the meantime, I am in the middle of Dr Elders book "The New Trading for a Living" (which is fascinating) and I have just been introduced to some folks who are using order flow and footprint strategies successfully. In other words, I am in information overload right now and I am having to force myself to take a step back, try to work on what (I think) I already know before adding anything more.
It has taken me over a year of actively working on this to first separate the BS from the good stuff, and then work on some of the good stuff. Now that I feel I am heading down the right road I am finding a wealth of truly great information. Not any secret signals, magic trade rooms, or holy grail indicators, just good, solid trading information. But, I don't care how much time you devote to this, it takes time to study and assimilate all this. I am not by nature a patient person so I am struggling with having to remind myself that the market will always be there and I just need to be methodical and thorough in examining all the material that comes my way. Step by step, I'll get there eventually!
Happy trading y'all!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
Still trading ES in Sim this week to work out any kinks before going back live.
I missed a pre-opening trade this morning simply because I wasn't focused. One of those oddities about trading, you watch and watch and wait and wait, then go get a fresh cup of coffee and when you come back a setup has come and GONE! Just the way the game is played, but can be maddening sometimes.
I took a trade when price was rejected a third time at S/R and Opening Price. Hit T1 for +6 ticks then it came back up and hit S2 for +6 ticks, 12 total.
My second trade took a while to set up and while I waited for my entry point I failed to notice that a couple of my indicators were showing weakness. I took the trade, it moved on and hit both stops for -16 ticks. No excuse for that.
The third trade before I left for the gym looked pretty good, hit T1 for +6 ticks but it backed up further than I liked and hit S2 at BE, +6 total.
I seldom trade after coming back from the gym. Usually I have other things to do and by then we are approaching 3:00ET anyway. Today I came back and noticed a recent trend change and a nice trade setting up. I took that one, hit T1 for +6 ticks and it ran close to T2, so I tightened my stop and got hit at S2 for +17, total of +23 ticks. A nice way to end the day!
Felt good about today's trading with the exception of #2. Tomorrow will be a short day and Friday's can be slow. I'll have to think about whether to switch from Sim to Live next week. It is a holiday week and in addition my work schedule is screwed up because of that as well. I may just stay in Sim for the couple of days I'll have trading and then look to the week after to go back Live. Of course, when you hear some traders tell tales of woe about trading in December, you have to wonder if there is EVER a good time!
Yesterday was my short day and although I didn't have time to post results or charts, I ended up with 4 trades, 2 Winners, 1 BE, 1 loss, for a Net of -9 ticks or ($112.50) in Sim in ES.
Today started well. Still in ES and still in Sim. I took a trade as price bounced off the bottom of the OR. I was able to hit T1 for +6 ticks and T2 for +13 ticks, a total of +19 and a great way to start the day.
My second trade was the same strategy except that I took the trade a little later and place T2 above the OR at the next S/R area. Hit T1 for +5 ticks but price did not climb out of the OR as I has hoped and instead backed down and hit S2 for +1 tick, a total of +6 ticks.
Third trade I took when it appeared that momentum was going to take price down out of the OR and it did, hit T1 for +4 ticks and T2 for +8 ticks, a total of +12. I did not have enormous confidence in how far momentum would take it so my targets were set pretty close on this one.
Later on I thought I had indication of a trend change and took a trade on that. I normally wait until after a trend has changed with some sort of confirmation before trading, but I thought I'd be the "early bird" today. Well, the worm bit the early bird in the butt for -16 ticks when the alleged trend change turned out to be just a deep pullback.
Since next week is a holiday week I'll stay in sim for whatever trading I get done. My work schedule is screwed up because of the holiday so I'll have short days on Monday and Tuesday, and I'm not sure but the markets may be closing early on Wednesday. And whether they close or not, I imagine most traders have headed out for holiday by noon ET.
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
