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NW Trader's Journal

  #91 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084


kareem40 View Post
Welcome back Mike. I have and still have tendencies to move/look around as well. I think the biggest problem is that trading has been, and still is, the hardest thing I tried to do; successfully. Most methods would work long term as long as you have a method/rules in place. At times, markets changes and nothing works. This is not the method or you. You are going to lose money no matter what you use those days.
Good luck and I think you are in very good hands sticking with PATs for a while. I look forward to your new posts soon.

K

I definitely agree that trading is just harder than it looks! And when I say I am getting back to my original strategy, I certainly don't mean that there is nothing I could add or modify to my strategy that would help. Far from it! And that's always the seduction of trying to add something or change something that you see another trader using. I'll still try new things, it's just that I need to make sure I don't drift too far unless what I am changing is having a consistent, positive result.

I am still looking into volume profile strategies, for instance. It makes sense to me that such studies would help me see where other trades are occurring and NT8 has a couple of tools (Order Flow Volume Profile and OF Market Depth) that may hold promise.

From what I have observed, there are many, many strategies that work. Some all of the time, some depending on market conditions. Some seem incredibly complicated to me and others just too dang simple. But, if someone tells me they are knocking down 75% winners using the phases of the moon, I'm not going to ridicule it or question it. (Unless they want to sell me their system for $5K, that is!) But I always have to look at those things with the primary question of how does it resonate with me. If it makes sense, if it clicks, then I'll investigate further. If it doesn't then I'll sincerely wish that trader the best of luck and move on.

Trading is one of the most challenging, frustrating, demanding and yet incredibly fascinating things I have ever attempted. I look forward to jumping back in when things settle down a bit here. I appreciate the feedback and always look forward to seeing your posts.

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #92 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084

I actually had time to sit down for the RTH open today and so I thought I'd post a couple charts since I haven't been too active lately. Work will still interfere with my trading for the rest of the week but I hope to be back next week and trading my Live account again. Since I am still getting back to the basics of PAT and I am still tweaking just a few things, I decided to stay on Sim for the remainder of the week. I do think I am making progress in restructuring my strategy.

Last night and again this morning just prior to the open, NT8 crashed and I lost about 40 minutes this morning while I fiddled with the computer. Now, before anyone jumps in to suggest I call NT8 support, rest assured that I will do so when the time is right. I'm never quick to blame a program because everyone's computer has dozens of other programs on them and every one of those programs offers the opportunity of a conflict. So I first like to make sure my computer is clean and that everything else is running correctly before I enlist the help of the vendor. Just before this morning's crash my Task Manager was showing NT8 consuming over 4 Gig of RAM and that's about 10 times what it normally uses so obviously something caused NT8 to go into a death spiral. So, after rebooting, cleaning and optimizing my computer and getting everything up and running again, it was almost time for the RTH open and of course I missed the CL open.

With some of the changes I have made, I will probably find myself in fewer trades but hopefully the ones I do enter will be of a better quality. Today's trading reflects that and only time will tell if this will be consistent. About 20 minutes after the open YM offered a breakout pullback that looked promising so I took it. I scalped 5 ticks off the first contract and hoped for a runner but it was not to be and my second contract was out at BE. Trade total +5 ticks.


Although I was monitoring RTY and CL in addition to YM, the only other trades I found this morning was in my 4th RTH market, GC. On the first two trades I scalped 5 ticks each and there was no runner and I stopped out my second contract at BE. On the third trade I scalped the 5 ticks and then got a small run on the second contract for a total trade of +15 ticks.


I felt good that my changes, most of which are just returning to the basics of price action, are having an effect. The other change I am experimenting with is Mack's (PATs) "scalp & run" strategy. At least for today, everything seems to be working but it'll take a lot more trades to know for sure.

Today's results (on Sim account)
4 trades
4 winners: $310.00 (no commissions included)

Happy trading everyone!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #93 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084


I managed to sit in for another session this morning, although I am still in Sim mode as I try to fine tune a few things.

I tried 3 trades in CL, managed to scalp a total of 15 ticks but didn't get a runner in any of them.


I also took one in GC, again no runner but scalped 7 ticks.



Even though I had not had a runner, I still felt good about my trade selections and trade management. For the last trade I took what I thought was a breakout pullback in YM. It did not pull back however and stopped me out for a loss of 38 ticks. I've looked at that trade again and again and still think I would take it. I've just got to keep studying these markets and screens.


Today's total (Sim account, no commissions calculated)
5 trades
4 winners $220
1 loser ($190)
Net P&L $30

Won't be able to trade tomorrow but I hope to do so on Friday. Still studying and making minor adjustments but I think I'm back to the basics which is why I retreated to Sim for a couple weeks. That and the fact that my job obligations were not going to allow for consistent trading during this period. Anyway, back to the books and screens! I am planning to be back on my Live account Monday provided I feel confident enough about my strategy by then.

Happy trading everyone!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #94 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084

Work obligations have temporarily eased up so I think I'll be back to doing my 3 full days of trading and two short days for a little while anyway. That said, I have decided to keep trading out of my Sim account for a while longer. I am still experimenting with a few things and don't feel confident enough to put real money at risk for the moment. I decided I would go ahead and start keeping the FIO journal again even though it is a Sim account.

In my quest to simplify things I found myself led to Mack's PATs trading information and I am trying to incorporate a few of his teachings into my trading. I may find that I have "over" simplified things but that's okay. I can always cautiously add things back in if I feel it necessary.

Oh, and one other thing I am experimenting with is a daily goal. I have never used daily "goals" in the past. My feeling is that the market will give you whatever it's going to give you and all you can do is work your edge. Some days there might be $1000 profit and other days you give back $500, but you just keep trading. However, I know many traders use daily goals so I thought I would try that for a while and see if it has any positive psychological effect on me. For starters, I am setting a daily goal of $200. If I reach that point, whether in one trade or several, I will stop trading. Once I start back on the Live account, that means that if I want to continue trading for practice, I can switch over to Sim. Right now, when I'm on Sim anyway, I'll just trade until I reach that goal or hit my Stop Trading Limit and those will be the trades I journal even though I may continue to practice on Sim after that time.

This morning started out with a couple of errors that didn't cost me money but are just lessons in awareness. The very first thing was a good trade opportunity in CL that occurred just about 3 minutes after the open. I just wasn't expecting to see such a nice setup so early and by the time I realized what I was looking at the price had moved on. And one thing I have learned is to never chase, so I didn't. That one trade would have more than made my new daily goal.

I ended up taking just three trades today, all in ES. The first one was a breakout pull back and that is where I made my other error. I am using the PATs method of "Scalp & run" for stops. After the first trade hit my scalp target, the stop on my second contract automatically moves to BE. However, after a couple bars, I wanted to preserve some profit so I moved my stop to BE+4. My stop was hit and then the price ran on up for $200 or so. Lesson: Don't move the stop until the price is high enough that I can place the stop where I'll make my daily goal even if the stop is hit. Trade +8 ticks.

The second ES trade was a fade from a channel boundary. Before the scalp target was even hit I somehow managed to move my second contract stop to BE. Don't know how I did that but it turns out it didn't matter. Price did hit my scalp target then backed up anyway. +4 ticks

The last trade was a second entry pull back which hit my scalp target then stopped out my second contract at BE for a +4 tick total.


And with those three trades I had hit my new daily goal so I was done. It will be interesting to see how the next week or two play out with these changes. I'm still having fun, so it's all good!

Results for the day (Sim):
3 trades
3 winners: $200 (not including commissions and fees)

Happy trading everyone!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #95 (permalink)
 
Salao's Avatar
 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
Posts: 1,250 since Jun 2017
Thanks Given: 10,571
Thanks Received: 5,870

Nice trading today @NW Trader ! I’ve often toyed with the idea of using a daily goal and loss limit as a way of framing out an edge. But the more I thought about it the more my brain hurt real bad so I’ve never taken the plunge. I’m definitely eager to see how your experiment goes. Trade well!

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  #96 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084

This is one of my short days where I only have about an hour to trade before leaving for work. I am still on my Sim account.

This morning I saw a setup brewing in CL right after the open. While I was waiting to enter, my itchy trigger finger managed to open a trade in the wrong place. Fortunately, I was able to scalp 5 ticks but my second contract was stopped out at BE. +5

I had time for two trades in ES. The first looked good but it reversed and stopped me out for a max loss of 16 ticks. I have to review that one but either I was too far above my EMA or else I should have noticed there was only one leg and I should have waited for the second leg. I suspect the latter. In any case, I was able to catch the second entry short on that swing and scalped for 4 ticks and then my second contract ran to the measured move for an additional 13 ticks. Total: +17


I would love to have stayed and tried to make my daily goal of $200 but I had to go to work. In any case, at least I was positive on the day.

Day's Results (Sim account)
3 trades
2 winners $262.50
1 loser ($200.00)
Net P&L $62.50 (commissions & fees not included)

Looking forward to a full day tomorrow. Happy trading!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #97 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084

The past 2-3 weeks have been a struggle. My work schedule has been erratic and my trading has also been erratic. So much so, in fact, that I switched back to my Sim account during that time. I read some books, tweaked my strategy, nothing was working. Finally I sat down and took a hard look at everything and regrouped just a bit. I took the things that have worked int the past, added some new stuff that seems to make sense, and decided to go back on my Live account.

I'm not sure if I had what you would call an "epiphany", maybe it's just another turn in this long road of trading. But, if the next few days of trading work out I'll go into more detail. If the trading doesn't improve, then I'll just keep working at it!

Today was a good start back with real money again. Started out with a nice trade in CL that netted +39 ticks, and another one later for an additional 15 ticks.


I tried a small trade on ES, scalped +4 ticks but it didn't run, and did the same on GC for +4 ticks as well.



No major mistakes today and I'm happy with the wins.

Today's results:
4 trades
4 winners: $620.56 after commissions

I'm back on my regular schedule so tomorrow will be just a short, one hour session for me. With my new strategy I may or may not even find a trade in that time, We'll see.

Happy trading everyone!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #98 (permalink)
 
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 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
Legendary TradeTheBar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
Posts: 708 since May 2010
Thanks Given: 1,887
Thanks Received: 903

And nice trading Mike

K

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  #99 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084

I had one hour to trade today before leaving for work. My new strategy is a bit more exacting with regard to setups and I wasn't sure if I would even find one in only an hour. I usually monitor ES, CL and GC in the morning sessions and neither GC nor ES offered anything in the 0545-0700 (PT) time I had available. CL, after its drop from the opening bell, appeared to offer a setup so I took it. The price stalled and I got uncomfortable and scratched it for +4 ticks. Price did move in my direction about 10 ticks after that but I didn't regret the scratch. About 10 minutes later it set up again, I took it again, and again it stalled! I didn't like that so I scratched again for +2 ticks.


About 15 minutes later CL set up once again but I was a bit gun-shy by then plus my wife walked in and was talking to me during the critical minute or two when I needed to be making a decision. Yeah, real life gets in the way of everybody's trading now and then! Anyway, I failed to take that trade and while it wasn't a killer, it would have been good for about 17-20 ticks. Oh well, there will be others!

Today's results:
2 trades
2 winners: $55.28 after commissions

For a short day, and with a new strategy, I was happy to take a small profit and head to work.
Happy trading everybody!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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  #100 (permalink)
 
NW Trader's Avatar
 NW Trader 
Seattle WA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, YM, ES
Posts: 305 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 495
Thanks Received: 1,084


This was a nice end to the week. There was nothing spectacular but my new strategy seems to still be working out, although it'll take a few weeks to know whether that's just luck-of-the-draw or a tangible result.

This morning the markets I watch (ES, CL, GC) seemed to be pretty slow. I even checked YM and NQ but didn't find much better there. The schedule I use on my "full" days limits the times that I watch the markets. I usually am at my keyboard ready to go by 0600 (PT), take about a 30 minute break for breakfast around 0700, then trade until around 0930. Usually I go to the gym at that time and don't return until around 1130. I may glance at the markets then but I don't normally trade that late afternoon market. Then after lunch I usually post to my trade journal, do my own daily trade log and add a journal entry to FIO. I do miss some really good action that occurs while I'm at the gym. Down the road if I feel I'm not productive enough in that 3 hour morning period I may have to try changing my schedule.

In the same vein, I find that 3 markets is about all I want to actively track. I do spend some time on each of those charts marking up the S/R areas and I'd rather be trading than drawing on charts. Also, I find that even watching only 3 markets, I will still miss a trade in one of the other markets because I'm flipping between charts. I have found that when watching only one market I normally catch every viable trade and can get very familiar with the movements in that instrument. But, when that market is wandering around range-bound, I get itchy and want to check out the other markets. It's a dilemma because I do such a much better job when concentrating on one market. I'm sure I'lll go back and forth over that one as I go forward.

Today I took a couple trades in GC to start with. Neither one ran away and I ended up +7 on one and +5 on the other.


One problem I am having in NT8 is in my ATM strategies. I sometimes have it set so that my first contract will take a scalp at, for instance, +5, and at the same time I have my second contract set to move the stop to BE at the same +5 mark. However, in a slow moving market when the price just "kisses" the +5 mark, NT8 will not take the profit on the first contract but it WILL move my stop on the second contract. In that case, if the price backs up even just a little, my second contract is closed at BE and all I have left is the scalp still waiting to be taken. It's weird but it happens consistently in a slow moving price situation, not just now and then. I'm going to have to work on that to see if I can approach the ATM I want from a different way.

Anyway, I then took two trades in ES this morning. The first worked fine other than the price did not run and I got +6, and the second stalled on me and I ended up scratching the trade at BE.


Finally, just before heading out to the gym, I took a short in CL that, once again, worked okay except that there was no runner so I ended up with +8.


For a Friday, I am not unhappy with the results and I am encouraged by the results of my new strategy. The only issue I see is that my stops are run pretty tight so that I do miss out on a run if there is any volatility because the price will back up and stop me out. At the moment, i am not going to change a thing. I can still catch a true "runner" and the tight stops help me preserve some positive movement in many cases.

Today's results
5 Trades
4 Winners: $265.56
1 Loser ($2.36) This was my BE, but of course I lost the commission
Net P&L: $263.20

I'm not posting the week's results since I just started back on Live trading on Wednesday, but with over $900 profit for those 3 days I am feeling good about things.

Have a great weekend everybody, see you right back here next week!

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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Last Updated on June 11, 2020


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