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TradeTheBar Daily Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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I day trade Stocks and Futures, specifically the mini/micro indices, and Forex. I trade part-time with the goal of transitioning into a full time trader. I aim for $200 per day with low risk. I do also swing trade on occasions using the micros. I use squawk news, trend lines, channels and VSA for my trading decisions. I have studied and few teachers for both VSA and market structure. I trade with IB and Oanda. I trade small so I can lose small


Recently, I have moved into trading day charts due to changes at work. All is still the same expect the size of bar, stops and targets.

K

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  #3 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received




I tried a trade on the micro Russell today. It was very small ( 5 lots) and for few ticks. I just wanted to see how it moves. It seems to have a good range and may try it again next week. The trade above was an upthrust set up.



Here are my ES trades. I did not take any MES since I was not planning on holding anything over the weekend. Again, it was not easy trading today and there few very good set up the I missed since I was very cautious.





I am still holding my Forex trades and did add one additional pair, CADJPY-Long.

It was an okay day but I am looking forward to putting the tariff news out of the way in order to focus on the charts. No news trading today, since there was not much to trade off. I was up $102 total for the day and very small on Forex ( FX trades are very small lots).


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  #4 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received



Here are my FX trades. I got stopped out of CHFJPY with -60 PIPs and holding the other three with mixed results. The CHFJPY was up nicely at the Sunday open, but it did not reach target ( 2/1 RR). I am very small on FX and trying it on the VSA 60 minute charts.



I had missed the first set up ( on top). It was right at the open and I hesitated for few seconds, which all it takes during the open. That set up had a re-test and established trend line, which could have easily gave me 2 points. I also canceled a sell at 80.75. I did take a long few bars after that on an OS Channel/Vol, on a bullish day ( at that time). That trade was good for +2.75 points.



The second trade was easy to take as well. A wide Spread, closing at the lows, easily breaking major weekly support on volume. The market was moving fast and I was in/out at market for +1.25. Also, daily support was right below me.



I also tried small size spread trade; (buy) MNQ (sell) MYM as the pair gets "out of norm." These trades tend to take a while, but risk is lower than an outright. The trade started to go my way toward the end of the day and I bailed for small profit since it was EOD and goal ( of $200/day) was made.




Over all good and low stress day with very low draw. No mistakes today.

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  #5 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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I think it maybe easier to keep a separate FX log. Here is what is going on with my Forex trades so far.



Trend line for CADJPY seems to be holding so far. There is nothing to do but wait on this long.



There seems to be long term support for EURJPY here that might hold. I also noticed a cluster of closes, which is bullish here. Any close below and the stop (dash line below) will be hit for sure.



I have not idea what to think of AUDNZD, buyers seem weak, but nothing very clear. No change to stop, for now.


No new positions for now.
K

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  #6 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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I am stopped out two FX trades EURJPY and AUDNZD. Both with about 40 PIP stop. Again, very small lots of $1000. Total loss is around $9. I usually trade (scalp) FX of non-event news, with better results. I am still holding CADJPY at -20 PIPs. I will not add anymore FX positions this week due to upcoming holidays. Also, may go back to FX news trading only.

K

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  #7 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received

Here are my daily trades:



This was an Overbought (OB) channel, test of Prior close, as well as an upthrust of the pre-market. Plus it had decent resistance at 69-70 close by. It was good for two points +$96 ( $100-commissions).







The second was a Pair ( NQ/YM) trade that yielded $50.



I could not take anything else after that as price action was hard ( for me) to read/trade. Plus I had other work obligations that needed my attention. I Ended up the day with +$145, which is very good for a day like today. It looks like the rest of the week maybe be the same.

K

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  #8 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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I did not trade the ES today and if I did I would been short biased and would have gotten killed. But in hindsight ( if I may add I have been very profitable in hindsight; not a losing day yet! ) and if I had traded the bars with NO bias, here few possibilities.




Setup # 1: A close above two resistance, the bottom channel and the other green trend line. Bar closing at the highs with okay volume. Risk would been a bit high, but could been tighten quickly.



Setup #2: A retest of support and channel again. This trade would been take at the wide spread bar, closing at the highs with high volume.



Again two trades that I watched move nicely without me. The good news is that I did manage to take one YM/NQ spread trade for +$50. I may start increasing size on these trades, or move up to the mini contract. Here is the trade ( capture of the open and close of the spread) below:







Happy 4th to all my US friends .

K

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  #9 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received

I am still holding my long CADJPY at around 30+ PIPs. It was very close to a stop last week, but did make it back up. The channel seems to be holding well so far, but sellers are also clearly present. I will move my stop later ( as we break into new highs) to lock in some profits.

No new FX trades until next week.





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  #10 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received


Here are my day trades today.



Three trades, first was the ES on the break of the employment report. Even though it make a one point, it was an impulsive and stupid trade. I do trade off the news, but usually it is breaking news/unannounced, never major planned events. I just got lucky! After that trade, I become very cautious and decided more ES trades for today. If I were trading the ES, there was on great set up below, with risk close by at 2969. My guess is that it will test the long term TL ( there as I post this) before dropping again.



The other two trades were spread trades. Below is the chart for both set ups. The blue vertical line is the initial entry ( 3 Micro lots) and purple is when I ( not always) add one additional lot. Yellow line is the exit ( usually at $50-80). Each trade made about $50 and very little risk.

I am up $154 for the day, which is very good since I did break my rules and made a mistake.



Have a great weekend,
K

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  #11 (permalink)
 mtzimmer1 
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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Very interested in how you determine the relative “out of norm”-ness of the YM NQ pair. I have been trying various things and can’t find any repeatable mechanical setup. Thanks!


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  #12 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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mtzimmer1 View Post
Very interested in how you determine the relative “out of norm”-ness of the YM NQ pair. I have been trying various things and can’t find any repeatable mechanical setup. Thanks!


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Hi,
I have few (trading) friends that feel the same way. They have tested ( Tradestation) the same set up and did not find it profitable long term. My guess is that the set up works if you don't get greedy and exit at the right time (probability of touch). It will give you a window to take +$50-80, then just as fast, it will take it away. And I do mean fast. The key is to watch and take it at market. Of course, I could be very wrong and there will be one day per year ( hand tested) that I will have a very large draw. Not a black swan event, but a hurtful loss. But I am aware of that. BTW, I am always out EOD, so the loss is never too bad, for me. And I trade small ( 3-5 micro lots).
I will continue to post and if start losing daily, then I will reconsider/retest. Thank you for your feedback and please feel free to share any charts/feedback concerning the set up. I am a beginner with only 10 years of trading
Also, I recently got into Tradestation and learning auto trading/testing, more on that in the near future.
Good trading,
K

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  #13 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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Here is my one and only Forex position. I added a target at the top of the channel. It came close, but not enough to fill. It's up about 60 PIPs so far. Still no new FX positions. I did not have much time with my work obligations to look for a set up. Day trades to follow next.



K

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  #14 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received

Here are daily day trades. Still the same with ES using news/VSA and the YM/NQ Spread. The first trade was a retest of close of the set up bar. I sold as it did not reach the close of that set up bar, again at volume. I closed at 1.5 points ( $75). The second trade I took at the test of an established trend line-bearish day. I did not like the price action at the resistance ( TL) after I entered and I bailed. I got a good fill (lucky) with +.5 since I was aiming for a scratch or a small loss.
After that I got very busy at work and could not watch the ES chart much. I noted few good set ups, that I would have possibly taken for a couple of points each.




Below is my Spread ( Sell YM -5: Buy NQ-5) trade. That trade look heat ( around $140, maybe more since I could not watch it all the time) and I added to it as it went against me, which is part of my trading plan. It also took a long time to mature/pay. I bailed ( toward EOD) at the time of this snap shot below for +$42. I don't think it ever reach my typical $50 target.



It was a good day with no mistakes, low risk and a bit more than half ( +$134) of my daily goal.
K

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  #15 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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No charts today. I did take one pair trade around the open and for some reason decided to step out for 20 minutes. Once I was back, the pair was in the worst possible draw of -$360. I am still holding it and usually I close all at EOD, but I think ( bad sign!) I have seen the worst of the draw. I has been improving ever since and I will look for tomorrow's open for taking hopefully a better loss. With this draw, I did not take any other trades and stopped trading for the day.

I am still holding the FX ( CADJPY) at profit. I am unrealized of -$290 as of this post. Not a good day and a mistake. Never leaving an open pair trade. Never get too conformable with your trading/set up and most of the time the first loss is the best loss.

K

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  #16 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Yes, I am still stubbornly holding the spread at a nice loss! I thought the Fed minutes news will cause enough mayhem to give me a decent exit/loss. I was wrong.

As I am watching my spread loss. I did watch the NQ most of the day and did notice few good set ups, which I took. I am up $130 on the NQ and down plenty on my pair trade





Good day, but still feeling like Sh1t with the loss am still hold.
K

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  #17 (permalink)
 Palais Brongniart 
Paris France + Dresden Germany
 
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I like your charts. Please indicate where your stops are, your targets, your entries. Hard to see.

I don't explain my charts. If you like to follow my trades, look for these lines.
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  #18 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Palais Brongniart View Post
I like your charts. Please indicate where your stops are, your targets, your entries. Hard to see.

Hi Palais,
Thank you for the post. Stops are never placed in advance and are taken at market two ticks below the most recent H/L swing. Targets are taken, most of the time, at market as well, based on the live forming bar and volume. You have to understand that the speed of the live bar is never shown on a historical chart. It can be a key to holding or running. Most of the time, targets, will be at the bottom/top of a channel and/or re-test of a trend line. But, many times they are at my $200 daily target, if it gets there.
I will start adding lines to possible good targets in future posts. Most of those will be in hindsight, which again I have a perfect trading record at. But please remember that it is very hard for me to stick with those as I am trading live. BTW, the blue dashes are the longs and red are the shorts. I am not sure if they show or not. I tend to take profit too fast and take my time with stops-basically I am still an amateur.
K

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  #19 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received

No chart set ups today, just news trades. It was a good day to do so as when we have Fed speakers. We tend to get strong moves both directions with time to enter at low risk. I have also traded my new trading toy, Tradestation. I opened an account to attempt at System Trading. I have only had it a week, but my system trading future does not look promising at all. Most of my tested systems had very bad equity curves. But I wanted to learn how to use Tradestation, so I traded some micros ( news trading as well) for a +20. It was small with 1-2 micros each trade. I do like their chart trader, of course NT chart trader is still the best. Speaking of which, please vote for me here if you like this journal:



I would love to win a NinjaTrader. IB's charts are not fun with work with!



My spread looks much better today and I maybe able to bail at break even in a day or so. I am up $91 with IB and $20 on Tradestation for a total of +$101.

An okay day, short of goal again, with low risk and no mistakes. It was challenging working with two different platforms at the same time.





K

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  #20 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 875 received

I actually forgot that I still have my FX (CADJPY) open. The set up is no longer there, but it seems to be close to Target. It's about 20 PIPs away at the time of this posting. I don't think I will have the time to review/add additional FX swing trades anytime soon. I do at times, when indices markets are slow,trade FX off breaking news.



K

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  #21 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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I could not trade today, which is good. I did not expect to see another all time high and I would have shorted the ES. And the absolute craziness of the market everyone one is expecting/demanding a .5 point Fed rate cut!!! I guess with unemployment lowest in 80 years and the indices all time highs, the economy is in very bad shape!!!!


Any way, on a good note my spread is much better now. I could not watch the charts today, but it looks like it was as low as -$100 intraday, which is a loss I would have accepted. It is -$200 at the close, but will watch it carefully Sunday night for an exit.

Also, I did exit the CADJPY at +40 PIPs. I almost gave my target earlier. But almost is never good in trading.

Have a good weekend.





K

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  #22 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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A typical summer trading day on the ES, ugly. I could not get myself to even take a micro trade. I considered two trades ( below), but did not take any:



My YM/NQ spread got worst by $100 today, so I am still holding it for a BE close.

I did chat with a new trading friend over the weekend. He only trades using the EW principles. He shared few charts and showed me his equity curve. I was was very impressive and got me sold.



Since I am still searching for the meaning of life as well as a consistent trading method, I (re) read "the Elliot Wave book" and decided to try it. Again, low risk and small size. I traded few liquid stocks option spreads and micro Forex. Since he recommends that I only swing trade EW, I can do this in tandem with my day trading. Below are the FX and option spreads I took. I trade options with Tasty since they have a great platform at low cost.



I am still new with EW, so my wave count maybe incorrect.









K

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 mtzimmer1 
Legendary Recovering Method Hopper
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I could never make anything useful out of EW principles. I always see multiple wave counts in real-time but only one ends up working out. If you can generate an edge from it, more power to you!


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  #24 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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mtzimmer1 View Post
I could never make anything useful out of EW principles. I always see multiple wave counts in real-time but only one ends up working out. If you can generate an edge from it, more power to you!


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Hi Mtzimmer1,
I have looked at it before and I said that it looks great only in hindsight, but my good friend said that I need longer time frames. He does mostly daily and 4H. He also said that the wave count is pretty much the channel I draw. We will see. I will just put those positions for now and they are low ( defined) risk. I have to put some real money on the line, otherwise I will never watch/learn.
I will post updates as the trades proceed.
Thanks
K

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  #25 (permalink)
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
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Posts: 655 since May 2010
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My EURGBP short did not pan out. It was a loss of 23 PIPs and few dollars. I am still holding CADCHF ( at a small loss). Stop loss on that pair is much higher. My EW friend said that I should been looking at only daily, and maybe 4 hour charts. I will make that change in future trades.
My option spreads still around BE.





K

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  #26 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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kareem40 View Post
Hi Mtzimmer1,
I have looked at it before and I said that it looks great only in hindsight, but my good friend said that I need longer time frames. He does mostly daily and 4H. He also said that the wave count is pretty much the channel I draw. We will see. I will just put those positions for now and they are low ( defined) risk. I have to put some real money on the line, otherwise I will never watch/learn.
I will post updates as the trades proceed.
Thanks
K

Good luck with Elliot Wave. I have thought that too, about looking great only in hindsight. My problem was always that there were too many possibilities ahead of time, and I couldn't see the "right" one until after the fact.

If you can figure it out and put it to use, you're better at it than I am. I certainly hope you are. It will be interesting to see if it helps you.

Bob.

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 kareem40 
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bobwest View Post
Good luck with Elliot Wave. I have thought that too, about looking great only in hindsight. My problem was always that there were too many possibilities ahead of time, and I couldn't see the "right" one until after the fact.

If you can figure it out and put it to use, you're better at it than I am. I certainly hope you are. It will be interesting to see if it helps you.

Bob.

Hi Bob,
Thank you for the feed back. I am not 100% sold either, but trading it small and with low risk. I honestly think it's the only way to test anything to do with trading, throw little money at it and watch it live. Too much money and you ( or I) will not follow the rules. So far, I only found "breaking news" trades are the only sure thing. You may have the absolute best set up/indicator there is; then we get a Trump tweet!

K

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 kareem40 
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Here are my daily trades:

Two trades, ES, MES, and I finally closed my NQ/YM Spread. The spread was up $100 but by the time I placed market orders, it had moved some for +$84. It was not a fun trade and even though I saw similar draws on the historical chart. It was almost $600 against me at one time last week, which is higher than anything I have hand tested. But finally the market normalized ( or back to chaos) and I bailed with some profit.



The ES trade ( First arrow), was mostly news, but it helped to have a wide spread bar with volume and resistance above. I took profit around the bottom channel, a long term support. Then I took a second MES trade as the resistance held and additional "bad" news. I traded smaller ( MES) since I did not want to give my locked profits back to the pros. Today, I watched the 20 minute chart since I had other work obligations and had less screen time. Took profit around the same place ( re-test of demand), which held as am right this post.



A good day, low stress and no mistakes. I am up $461 for the day.

K

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 kareem40 
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I was still busy with work today and really should not have traded at all, but I did. I was trying to force a trade, and worst yet, force a quick exit so I can focus at work. I did not trade well. I also went for another spread trade, but due to my previous draw, I was careful to exit for 1/4 of typical profit. Also spreads have be watched all the time.

Here are my trades today:



1) Short ES, which I still cannot figure why I sold. Looking at the bar, it had wide spread and highest volume on the chart, but closed in the middle. Which means buyers were very much present. A long there would been an easy very low risk 2-4 points ( daily target).

2) Short 3 MES. I added to a loser, but it was a good set up and an okay trade that took little heat. Resistance above, close at the lows then volume come in with selling.

My target was the gold line below, test for demand. Later I got restless and took my exit early, above the set target.

I have a couple of private questions about my spread trade and in the next post I will explain a quick and simple way to take to try it.



A bad trading day, with mistakes, draw and high stress. I got impatient with my first entry and my exit. I am up $94 for the day.

K

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 kareem40 
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Here is a quick and easy way to trade this spread. First, few notes:

  • To begin with trade very small. I recommend 1/1 Micro lots
  • It's always long one instrument, short the other.
  • It does not have a stop loss. Draws can reach $500 ( just recently).
  • You cannot and should not leg out. In as a pair and out the same.
  • Target ( on 4-5 micro lots) is $50-$200.
  • Target may take 5 minutes to weeks to reach.
  • Profits come and go very quickly. Arb/HFT traders are always faster than you ( me). You never get what you see when you decide to exit, unless you are lucky!
  • This can be done with other Co-integrated instruments, but not as easy due to volatility levels.
  • On this trade only, you may add to a loser, but still small.

I took snapshots of the progression of today's spread. All of these are from today's session. I closed it for +$23, but it could have easily reached $90-100.


Look at the % gain/loss for each instrument. Since they are close, do nothing.


Later in the day NQ is +.24%, which YM is down .08%. Here you can sell 3 micro lots of NQ and buy 3 YM at the same time.


Here NQ went from +.24 to +.2 and YM from -.08 to -.01 which should give you some profit.


Here is later in the day. If I had waited on my spread. Look at the price. The NQ's move to +.05% and YM to only -.05%. In $ terms, an additional 16 NQ points and less 10 YM points; or on three micros +96-5= + 91 additional profit).

I hope that makes sense. If not, do nothing.

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K

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 kareem40 
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Here are my daily trades for the day.
First was the usual spread around the open. They tend to work best around the daily open and close. And at times during major planed news events.


Here is right after the trade was opened. -.39% YM, -.13% NQ.


And the close. It was around +$50, but I could not close it quickly due to clicking error. I ended up with +$35 for the close.


Two MES trades at different lot size today. Both were winners and did not take much heat. They were both PA/VSA set ups. I took profit way too fast on my second trade. I should have stayed with the original target set which would given me daily goal. I decided to cut size and trade MES instead of ES since I did not trade well yesterday.



A total of +$172 for the day. Good day, low draw, but still stressful.

K

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 kareem40 
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A quick update of my open CADCHF trade. This trade was based on EW of the hourly chart.
+24 PIPs for now:





K

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 kareem40 
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Only one trade. It was breaking news and for the CL. I don't trade CL much, but when major breaking news hits, it's a very low risk and quick trade. It made profit for the day, so I shut down the rest of my charts.



The NQ-YM Spread trade showed a great set up today, but it was too late and being a Friday, I passed. I may take it at Sunday's open.

Low stress and risk trading day with +$315 for the day.

K

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 kareem40 
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I have a friend at a different forum that keeps telling me that I am wasting my money ( $250/month) on a premium/fast news service. And even without the news I could have taken the same set up in the same areas, based on PA/VSA ( chart below) Looking in hindsight, seems to make some sense. It's all built in the charts, right? What do you guys/gals think?



K

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 snax 
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kareem40 View Post
Only one trade. It was breaking news and for the CL. I don't trade CL much, but when major breaking news hits, it's a very low risk and quick trade. It made profit for the day, so I shut down the rest of my charts.



The NQ-YM Spread trade showed a great set up today, but it was too late and being a Friday, I passed. I may take it at Sunday's open.

Low stress and risk trading day with +$315 for the day.

K

Nice trading @kareem40! I am interested in spread trading too, its a bit further out on the horizon for me but it seems like a pretty smart strategy to add to one's repertoire. Cheers!

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 bobwest 
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I have a friend at a different forum that keeps telling me that I am wasting my money ( $250/month) on a premium/fast news service. And even without the news I could have taken the same set up in the same areas, based on PA/VSA ( chart below) Looking in hindsight, seems to make some sense. It's all built in the charts, right? What do you guys/gals think?

Whether to incorporate news into your trading is one of those continuing questions that don't ever seem to get settled. I'm sure you know the point of view that says that anything in the news always gets baked into the price ahead of time, or is at least reacted to sooner than you will by players that have better access and/or inside knowledge, and I think that is often right.

For news events that are scheduled, such as FOMC announcements or the crude oil report, it's important, obviously, to know when they will happen so you're not blindsided by the usual sudden volatility. Many traders just wait these out.

There is an argument that someone has inside or at least early info for some of these events, since price may start to move just a little early (a few minutes or seconds), but I'm not sure whether that is just people jumping the gun. In any case, very often the first market reactions after these events get quickly reversed, as the early jumpers and naive traders get their heads taken off. I think there are probably deep-pocket traders who simply fade the initial moves, although this strategy wouldn't always work, either.

I have no experience with a "premium/fast news service," mainly because I have always believed the point of view that you can't really trade the news, but then, maybe my believing it has just meant that I never looked into the question, and maybe I've just been left out. Always possible.

But for my money, aside from things that truly are not foreseeable, I don't think that responding to news events is a good strategy for the retail trader, and possibly not for the professional trader either. If you get one of the free news services that simply tell you what is scheduled in the way of announcements and anticipated events, so you know they are coming, you probably are getting the most out of an awareness of the news. I do think that, barring sudden events, most news items can be traded from the chart by itself. Sometimes the chart may tell you something about what the news will be, if you accept the idea that someone, somewhere is well-connected enough to have better info than the rest of the market, and will act on it early.

Remember that this is the opinion of someone who is not particularly well-connected, and so may not know what he is talking about. But then, your fast news service may not be that well-connected -- in terms of really useful, and early, information -- either.

Bob.

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 kareem40 
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Whether to incorporate news into your trading is one of those continuing questions that don't ever seem to get settled. I'm sure you know the point of view that says that anything in the news always gets baked into the price ahead of time, or is at least reacted to sooner than you will by players that have better access and/or inside knowledge, and I think that is often right.

For news events that are scheduled, such as FOMC announcements or the crude oil report, it's important, obviously, to know when they will happen so you're not blindsided by the usual sudden volatility. Many traders just wait these out.

There is an argument that someone has inside or at least early info for some of these events, since price may start to move just a little early (a few minutes or seconds), but I'm not sure whether that is just people jumping the gun. In any case, very often the first market reactions after these events get quickly reversed, as the early jumpers and naive traders get their heads taken off. I think there are probably deep-pocket traders who simply fade the initial moves, although this strategy wouldn't always work, either.

I have no experience with a "premium/fast news service," mainly because I have always believed the point of view that you can't really trade the news, but then, maybe my believing it has just meant that I never looked into the question, and maybe I've just been left out. Always possible.

But for my money, aside from things that truly are not foreseeable, I don't think that responding to news events is a good strategy for the retail trader, and possibly not for the professional trader either. If you get one of the free news services that simply tell you what is scheduled in the way of announcements and anticipated events, so you know they are coming, you probably are getting the most out of an awareness of the news. I do think that, barring sudden events, most news items can be traded from the chart by itself. Sometimes the chart may tell you something about what the news will be, if you accept the idea that someone, somewhere is well-connected enough to have better info than the rest of the market, and will act on it early.

Remember that this is the opinion of someone who is not particularly well-connected, and so may not know what he is talking about. But then, your fast news service may not be that well-connected -- in terms of really useful, and early, information -- either.

Bob.

Interesting comments and thank you. My main reason to keep it has been results, which has been very consistent and profitable using it. But again my friend is telling that I am still trading price action, but doing it on the fly. But revisiting the chart below, the spot where I took the trade, could have been technically a double top that should be sold, or if it went a bit higher then its an upthrust ( some call it a flush) and would be shorted in the following lower bar. So technically it would been a missed trade or a big loss. But at the moment I am hearing live breaking news that hormuz strait could possibly be close and CL will go up by $50 in few days if confirmed. Its costly service since its fast ( still not the fastest), and not fake news. Also, I tend to take a relatively small part of the news trade. Please note I mostly trade breaking/unplanned news events. Planned ones such as employment report etc are for the pro and I agree not for any of us to trade.

One last note, I have found PA/VSA technical charts had always helped me with my exits, again such as in chart below.
Thanks and hope for more feed back.



K

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 kareem40 
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snax View Post
Nice trading @kareem40! I am interested in spread trading too, its a bit further out on the horizon for me but it seems like a pretty smart strategy to add to one's repertoire. Cheers!

Thanks Snax,
Will add more information, but please note I still somewhat new to it and not fully sure. I have seen few traders in here that seem to have a much better understanding. I look forward to their feed back.

K

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 kareem40 
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I am trying a Forex Spread Trade. Here is the open of the trade:

Sell : USDCAD $500
Buy : GBPAUD $1565

I know this is very small, but since I am new to this I needed to be small and live as well.
More details on this later.



K

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 kareem40 
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Here is the FX spread closed for plus about 18 PIPs.



Only +$2.8 but again, testing with live trading conditions. Oanda tends to have the same spread/fills with $100 to $100,000 lots.

K

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 kareem40 
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This is the earlier EW trade. Getting close to target below:



K

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 kareem40 
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This Forex spread had a very good set up as well with +2 Zscore ( SD from mean) and strong co-integration. I did not take this one since in Forex major political events can and will break long standing relationships. Even with all the math and statistics, riots in the streets will cause losses. I got stuck in a stuck in a similar trade in the past trading a Turkish Lira spread pair.

BTW, these spread trades do not have to be taken immediately and you should have plenty of time to enter ( of course at your own risk). They are taken off daily/1H/30M/15M charts.

Please give don't forget the competition if you like the Journal:


K

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 kareem40 
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Only One spread trade today, which was good for +$44 with a draw of about $100 or so.
I stayed busy with the Forex Spread trades set ups and did not get to day trade.



K

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 kareem40 
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Buy EURUSD $500
Sell EURSGD $355

Z Score: -1.71
Tested well in the last six months with four winners.
30 Minute Chart




K

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 kareem40 
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Buy: GBPCHF $1000
Sell: AUDNZD $520

SD from mean -1.91
1 Hour chart



K

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 kareem40 
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Sell: GBPSGD $1000
Buy: GBPUSD $820

+2.07 SD from mean
30 minute chart



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 kareem40 
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Buy: GBPCHF $1000
Sell: AUDNZD $520

SD from mean -1.91
1 Hour chart



K

Pair closed for +18 PIPs. Capture right before closing the pair.



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 kareem40 
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Two trades today, in addition to the micro Forex spread trades. First was in the morning and it was the normal YM-NQ spread trade. It was at $50+ when I decided to close, but ended up with +$45 actual profits. The spread had only $20 of draw at worst.

Second was a combination of news ( China face to face meeting) and PA/VSA. The breaking news got me very quickly into the trade ( blue line) and the exit was based on PA/support from few days back. If I had traded the news on its own, I would been out with half the profits. Technical set up kept me in for the ( original) 3008.5 target from the hourly charts. I had to exit below that since it was EOD. Also, notice how the volume was low on all the down bars, and high(er) on the up bars.




MES trade made $267 and spread +$45 for a total of $312. Good day, low stress and minimal draw.

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 kareem40 
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Buy EURUSD $500
Sell EURSGD $355

Z Score: -1.71
Tested well in the last six months with four winners.
30 Minute Chart




K

The SD from mean is -3 right now. The appropriate thing to do, according to the trader that is helping me with this set up, is to add to this trade. This is all new, and even though its very small size, I will not. I will continue to hold for BE or some profit.



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 kareem40 
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As of this morning:



Please give your thanks for the competition if you like the Journal:


Thank you,
K

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 kareem40 
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An ugly day. I could not get going at all today. I did not feel well and should have taken the day off. I tried one long news trade ( MES) AM early and gave up on it too early, then a second short that I am glad to bailed early. Just bad unfocused trading all day.

I am holding a YM-NQ spread at a loss, and should be okay by tomorrow.





A bad trading day, with stress and s (still open) loss.

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 kareem40 
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Here are my trades today.





This was a relatively easy trade to take and it did not take much heat. I did step out after setting target in place ( For you @Zachary Standley ).



I was also able to exit my YM-NQ spread. It was up around $30, but markets were very fast this morning. I lost some fumbling around to close the spread. I was really worried about this one. It did take a larger than comfortable draw yesterday after close. I am also very happy to take this off, since I am packing to a family vacation very early tomorrow. I did not want to worry about any open positions on the beach.
No trades/journal until Thursday of next week, but I will lurk around and catch up on some very good journals around here.
A very low stress, low draw and easy day ( due to markets of course, not my skills). I am up +$190 for the day.

Last, thanks for all that have voted and if you have not, please don't forget about the "thanks" for the competition. It's getting close and I may have a chance at third place. With your help of course.



K

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 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
 
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BTW, my Forex spreads ( and the EW trade) are doing horrible!!! The good news is that am down a whopping $5. The stock options spreads based on EW are at BE still. I will hold them few more days to see how they mature. It's maybe back to what works, news, VSA and price action.



Please give your thanks for the competition if you like the Journal:


Thank you,
K

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 kareem40 
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Keep an eye on this line. It may give you great trades for the next few days/weeks:



K

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 kareem40 
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I am back from vacation. Punta Cana was wonderful and worth every penny. Here is a quick update on my FX spread trades. I have not done the calculations for SD, but will do later today. I will continue to hold. The first trade is the original EW trade.





Thanks for all that have voted and if you have not, please don't forget about the vote for the competition. It's getting close and I may have a chance at third place. With your help of course.



K

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 kareem40 
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Here is what I am watching today.



Again, thanks for all that have voted and if you have not, please don't forget about the "thanks" for the competition. It's getting close and I may have a chance at third place. With your help of course.



K

This is a 20 minute bar chart.

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 kareem40 
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Here my trade for the day. It was a channel break with wide spread and volume. As stated earlier, I expected the 3008.5ish Axis line to be tested for demand. I took my first MES lot before the close just so I commit to the set up and if it closes above, I am out with a very small loss. Then added ( max of 5 lots) on both sides of my original entry. My target is a bit above the Axis line since many trades see that line and we may not get there.



I will stop for the day even thought it's below target ( of $200), but I have other work to attend to. BTW, a buy ( at your own risk) of 3008.5ish would be low risk and good for 3-4 points.

A good day, with no stress and hardly any draw. Plus $153 for the day.



Again, thanks for all that have voted and if you have not, please don't forget about the "thanks" for the competition. It's getting close and I may have a chance at third place. With your help of course.



K

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 kareem40 
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K

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 kareem40 
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Here are my totals ( by instrument) for July 2019. I did not get to the $200 goal, but better than June's daily average of $121. IB will not total all until midnight tonight, so I added todays profit of $153.I hide all the detail to reduce pic size. Also the MNQ-MYM are spread, so one will always be negative other positive. Net profit on the YM/NQ spread is +$478. This is all after commissions.



Thank you for the support and see you next month/tomorrow.

K

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 kareem40 
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Hi
To all below, thank you very much for your vote and support. If you need anything at all please feel free to PM or post.



@avasfx, @dangkevin, @DavidHP, @jtrade, @mtzimmer1, @MWG86, @ratfink, @shortcreeker, @TraderTS, @Zachary Standley

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 kareem40 
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Good trading to all
K

Sorry about pic spelling errors...not awake yet

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 kareem40 
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The good news is I made my goal, the bad news I traded badly for three reasons:

1. Was still tired and behind in work from vacation and tried to push my ( first trade) target early. I should have not traded or took the +$100 before the open.

2. Had confidence due getting third place in the Journal competition. I started to believe that I am actually good! Ego destroyed many accounts, including a couple of mine in the past. More on that, read "when supertraders meet kryptonite."

3. Put target ( for first trade) based on daily profit target and held into the open mayhem.

On a good note, I did place two good (news) scalps to make up for first trade losses. On my last trade, I stepped out for lunch with target in place and was given a Trump gift to reach daily target. I also closed the spread at that time. Good thing I had CNBC breaking news notification which got me back in the office to close spread.


Below are captures of my trades/results.





I am up +$210 for the day. Stressful and bad trading. Not good trading and a bad start for the month. But lucky.

K

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 kareem40 
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Clean up few old lines. Here is what I look for now:



I am flat.

K

Correction for chart: long Now and a sell of 3008.5. Also a close below 35 is very bearish.

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 kareem40 
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A quick update of my open CADCHF trade. This trade was based on EW of the hourly chart.
+24 PIPs for now:





K

It finally closed at target. Of all the EW test on my Forex trades, this was the only one that paid ( +89 PIPs)



For the ES today, I am still looking for a set up/reason to buy it.

K

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 kareem40 
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Not looking very good. I guess back to VSA, price action and news.




K

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 kareem40 
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At your own risk and always trade your own plan.



Good trading to all today.
K

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 kareem40 
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Much better today. As stated earlier, I was looking for longs ( for many technical/MTF reasons) and I got in with 1 MES lot at #1. There was a wide spread bar with highest volume of the morning. Then added one more few minutes later as the bar broke the upper channel, with volume as well. Later I added 3 lots at #2 as I expected 2935 to hold. There will be many bulls there, I think.


I put my target around the swing high and close to profit target, which was filled at #3. I did not want to repeat yesterday's mistake by going into the open mayhem.


I also put a spread, which believe it or not, was at plus $45 when I decided to exit. Both markets were very fast and I only go +$10. With the MES win, I will stop for the day due to work reasons and not give anything back to the pros.



K

A very good day, followed the rules, low stress and some heat on the MES. I am plus $183 for the day.

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 kareem40 
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I am not buying this sell off. Notice the volume ( of course use ES not MES volume) on the down bar. It looks like maybe we dance around 2935 for a couple of days, before going higher. I expected the close below 2935 to do more damage and it did not. Weak selling===going up into the close.



I am still done and flat for the day, but if I had to trade, I would still buy.

K

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 kareem40 
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Here is my guess on the ES for this week. Unless we get major news development. We should in a choppy hard to trade range, I think!



Good trading to all.

K

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 mtzimmer1 
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I agree with your analysis. I expect some chop but overall am expecting lower prices in the coming week and weeks.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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 kareem40 
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mtzimmer1 View Post
I agree with your analysis. I expect some chop but overall am expecting lower prices in the coming week and weeks.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I look forward to any and all volatility. BTW Zimmer, I really do like your Journal/trades. I hope you keep posting.

Take care,
K

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 kareem40 
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Amazing what "a little bit of Jessica," and china will do overnight. Here is my morning chart, but I think, its all news today. Markets will most probably have wide swings on every tweet/breaking news. So, I was wrong, markets are anything but boring today!



Good trading to all,
K

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 kareem40 
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Very hard to take a trade until much lower or higher....
Just sitting my hands waiting for news!



K

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 kareem40 
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And it was not a good idea. I got out very quickly, luckily with some profit, +$16.



Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing.

K

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 kareem40 
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Here is a trade that I would normally do based on channel support/resistance. But notice the volume on the up bar is much higher ( Same on the ES) than the one on the down bar. We are maybe going up soon, but would like some (positive) news confirmation.




Still flat, looking to buy.
K

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 kareem40 
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I really don't like Gap down days and have never been able to trade them well. Today was no exception. Everything looks easy now, but I could not find a good entry point. I had few planned, but either the price broke these levels with ease, which scared me, or I just did not pull the trigger. There were also a couple of breaking news, but I thought they were just a re-hash, nothing new. It was a mistake not the short additional bad news.
No MES trades, just the spread trade earlier.

I am only up $16 for the day!

Chart explanation:

1) It was a good long and should have taken for the daily goal. I did not. since it did not reach the line.

2) I had planned a long but price broke support with ease, so I back out.



K

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 kareem40 
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I really cannot pull the trigger on anything. Any kind of news will kill any set up or S/R on any TF. I did see a good set up last night ( long MES), but did not feel like staying up all night looking for news . I am just watching the news and if anything breaks either way, I will join in. I did buy some weekly Apple calls ( exp in 3 days). There was a good set up on the daily. Total risk there is about $200.




K

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 kareem40 
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I did not trust any of my VSA/PA set ups today. It seems like a day were everyone waiting on a tweet! I did trade the news some in the morning and lunch ( around work). Basically, I wait for breaking news and add to winners as price moves. This is for MES. There is one trade for CL and that was a mistake. I clicked the wrong instrument. I got out as soon as I could and luckily, I was out with a tick. No spreads today. My AAPL calls ( 2) are down a total of $89 as of this post.

Here are my trades chart and list:





I am up with $153 and will stop for the day.

K

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 kareem40 
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I am still holding at a loss, I will for sure bail at BE, if it gets there.

Here were the FX spreads stand as of this morning:



K

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 kareem40 
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Again, just news trading today and one spread. The spread closed only at +$27 only as NQ was moving very fast. I am still holding the AAPL calls and did buy cheap CL out of the money calls as well. I have the feeling that both of these instruments are over done and should see a bounce back soon.





I am up $158 today and will stop at that get back to work. Easy day, with low stress and draw.


K

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 kareem40 
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After my fantastic and very accurate call of no volatility this week , I took a couple of days of pre-market until the dust settle. I don't think it has, but if no news here are key levels: 2903,2879,2841 and of course the channel.
And here is my chart:



As I write this, more news is coming out....so I may just go back to the 1 minute and trade any breaking news!



K

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 kareem40 
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Again all news today. I did see good VSA/PA set ups. First after my first news trade the 2903 ( mentioned in an earlier post), was tested and price move up from there. I did not take it.. Again, with news trading I only add to winners and start with 2 MES, then add. I usually like to go all out, but at times do scale out as well.



Here is the second news trade. This did take some heat, but not much.



I am still holding the AAPL 202.5 calls expiring tomorrow and CL expiring next week. Both are looking good.



I traded very little today due to work, so easy trading day with low risk and low draw. I am up $102.
K

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 NW Trader 
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kareem40 View Post
Again all news today. I did see good VSA/PA set ups. First after my first news trade the 2903 ( mentioned in an earlier post), was tested and price move up from there. I did not take it.. Again, with news trading I only add to winners and start with 2 MES, then add. I usually like to go all out, but at times do scale out as well.







Here is the second news trade. This did take some heat, but not much.







I am still holding the AAPL 202.5 calls expiring tomorrow and CL expiring next week. Both are looking good.







I traded very little today due to work, so easy trading day with low risk and low draw. I am up $102.

K



Sounds like a good day. When I got back into this a little over a year ago my intention was to trade futures and options. Once I got going I found that the learning curve was so steep on each that I felt I needed to go with one or the other and I chose futures. If and when I ever get to a point that I can allocate the time I’d love to pick up options again. I enjoyed trading them but I’ve got a lot to learn.

Mike
NW Trader

There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
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 kareem40 
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A combo of news and one set up today for the MES. The problem with news trading is sometimes you are not sure, if good news is good and bad is...then again sometimes bad is actually good and good is bad....
I am still convinced that the morning news is positive but the markets did not agree. I bought the news twice and puked on both trades ( trade 1 & 2 a loss of $180 total). Trade 3 was a test of 2903 mentioned earlier and it did well, but I did not hold it enough to recover my earlier losses.
The AAPL was almost hit with $100 profit but it was 2 cent of my limit price. Then Trump said "maybe cancel meeting" and markets went down, then my options expired worthless.
My CL options are doing well and I wanted to take one off with some profit and make my options risk free, but it did not get high enough.





Not a good day and did get frustrated with my trading/results. I am down $69 for the day.

Good weekend to all.

K

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 NW Trader 
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kareem40 View Post

Not a good day and did get frustrated with my trading/results. I am down $69 for the day.

Good weekend to all.

K

As someone who just recently completed two incredibly frustrating and costly weeks, I hear you! But, I rebounded this week and you will as well. Examine your trades for the past week and see if you made mistakes or if there are actual errors in your strategy. If there were trade errors, resolve to deal with that next week. If the strategy needs tweaking, do it. But if the strategy is good and the errors are correctable, then I say go grab dinner with friends, have some drinks and talk about anything but trading. Come Sunday, start making your game plan for the coming week knowing that you've got a plan and the discipline to carry it out.

Enjoy your weekend!

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 NW Trader 
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kareem40 View Post
The problem with news trading is sometimes you are not sure, if good news is good and bad is...then again sometimes bad is actually good and good is bad....
I am still convinced that the morning news is positive but the markets did not agree.

K

I am interested in your news trading. Do you simply anticipate the news, make a judgement about how the market will react and place a trade just prior to the release? Or, do you bracket the release time so you can go either way?

So far, I stay away from known news releases and I get nervous whenever Trump's thumbs start moving. It's sort of like watching a 3 year old put Dad's car in Drive!

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 kareem40 
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NW Trader View Post
I am interested in your news trading. Do you simply anticipate the news, make a judgement about how the market will react and place a trade just prior to the release? Or, do you bracket the release time so you can go either way?

So far, I stay away from known news releases and I get nervous whenever Trump's thumbs start moving. It's sort of like watching a 3 year old put Dad's car in Drive!

Thanks for your posts NW. I will write a full post later this weekend on my rules with news trading. BTW, I have another journal with videos in the elite section that goes into details. I have done few changes since the videos, but not much.

Take care,
K

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 kareem40 
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As someone who just recently completed two incredibly frustrating and costly weeks, I hear you! But, I rebounded this week and you will as well. Examine your trades for the past week and see if you made mistakes or if there are actual errors in your strategy. If there were trade errors, resolve to deal with that next week. If the strategy needs tweaking, do it. But if the strategy is good and the errors are correctable, then I say go grab dinner with friends, have some drinks and talk about anything but trading. Come Sunday, start making your game plan for the coming week knowing that you've got a plan and the discipline to carry it out.

Enjoy your weekend!

Again, thanks. Funny that you said that, because that is exactly what I did last night
Few old friends and old drinks will fix most of your frustrations
K

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 NW Trader 
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kareem40 View Post
Thanks for your posts NW. I will write a full post later this weekend on my rules with news trading. BTW, I have another journal with videos in the elite section that goes into details. I have done few changes since the videos, but not much.

Take care,
K

Thanks! I'll check out your other journal over the weekend.

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 kareem40 
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I have few discussion and questions concerning news trading and how useful it can be in trading. I am going to post few examples/captures on how I make trade it. I did not take all of these trades, but only wanted a quick examples ( in hindsight). I have picked important/major news and I only take unplanned news. There is no way I can make money trading employment report, or similar major planned events. Please note I have no relationships with any news provider and there are many to choose from. But Bloomberg/CNN is not an option ( too slow).



More to follow next...

K

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K

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K

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K

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K

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 kareem40 
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No chart today. I working on setting my my new Ninjatrader platform. I did take one MES trade (long) at the close of 2903 that is at -$250ish as of this post. I am still bullish, but will bail if I see further weakness. No spread trade.

My CL calls are about the same, with some profits.

K

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 NW Trader 
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No chart today. I working on setting my my new Ninjatrader platform. I did take one MES trade (long) at the close of 2903 that is at -$250ish as of this post. I am still bullish, but will bail if I see further weakness. No spread trade.

My CL calls are about the same, with some profits.

K

Haven't started mine yet, still setting up account. I found your news trade posts interesting, thanks for posting those.

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 kareem40 
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A very good day for both the MES and CL options. Mostly due to Trump/China news. I had taken the CL last week with options as there was a good set up on the CL daily chart. I also thought it what I would consider "oversold." The MES was due to Axis line support at 2903 ( Close above on the 20m chart). I got stubborn with that position and it did take of heat. My logic was the news was so negative and non stop from China trade, it must be going back soon. Also the fact that I was trading micro, I can stay with my trade logic/haunch longer. I also got lucky! Too bad my AAPL options last week did not have few more days to expire!

Here are my captures for all trades. I am using NT8 now. but will show IB charts at times as well. Again thank you @bigmike and those who voted for me last month.







I am up $2334 for the day and may take another ( Hong Kong news) trade later. Some stress in the AM as my MES was taking additional heat, but a good and easy trading day.

K

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I did not trade this one, but just as an example from this morning. This one was also technically sound, since it was a wide spread, closing at the highs, with highest volume of the day.




K

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 kareem40 
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Okay one last news trade and I am done for the day. I am starting to feel confident; a recipe for disaster.





Additional +$23 for the day.

K

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I am up $2334 for the day and may take another ( Hong Kong news) trade later. Some stress in the AM as my MES was taking additional heat, but a good and easy trading day.

K

Wow, nice trading!

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