Trade for a Living - futures io
futures io futures trading



Trade for a Living


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated by pauljoe
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one jba1962 with 176 posts (354 thanks)
    2. looks_two kareem40 with 9 posts (14 thanks)
    3. looks_3 bobwest with 8 posts (20 thanks)
    4. looks_4 TradingThomas with 8 posts (10 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 2.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mtzimmer1 with 2.1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 jba1962 with 2.0 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 kareem40 with 1.6 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 14,563 views
    2. thumb_up 461 thanks given
    3. group 28 followers
    1. forum 237 replies
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Trade for a Living

(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received

Option Side: Welp, I said yesterday it'd be a big up day for my NLV or the market would take a big dump. After the Fed announcement it certainly looked like the former as the implied volatility started to shrink. I was up about 1000, but then someone (Powell?) said, "Oh, don't get used to this. It's a one-off" or something like that, and BAM! Free fall. I ended up down about 1850. If there is carry over tomorrow, I will have to close or roll some Puts. And that will come at a high price, but what can you do?

Day Trade Side: What an exhausting day! Trade went in the dumper right at the beginning. I was down over 1000 before I even got my third leg initiated. Down almost 1500 before the announcement, and just about at my bailout point. In fact, if not for the announcement upcoming (which I figured had a better chance of helping me than hurting me since I was so far down) I would have exited. After the announcement, it did get a little better, and when I got to -1000, I exited 1/3 of my position. At that point I seriously considered just calling it a day. 1000 wasn't too bad, and the Option Side was doing well. But then the big dump. I closed some of the long position, but not all, and eventually I got to even, and then up 600. The market rallied about 40 points (FAKEOUT!!) and I exited +151. A miracle that I was positive, but a very unfun day. Didn't I just say I loved this game? Wow, miserable today.

It made me take a look back to the last Fed day, and I got beat up pretty good then too (though the Option Side was positive that day). My initial thought was that 2:00 PM announcements aren't suited to my methodology as I have my entire trade on by then. Contrast that to Friday when we will have the Employment report. Typically a big mover, but I will only have a small percentage on by 8:30 am. My remaining legs can negate my first trade if necessary. No such thing when the big news is at 2:00. However, the flaw in that theory is that I got beat up BEFORE the announcement today, and actually did better after. And it was the same last time. Terrible start, and then better after the announcement. I think the takeaway is that I need to sit out on Fed announcement day. It's just not worth the hassle and potential risk.

So all in all, it was a good month. I really can't complain. The day trade side did better than I have any right to expect and the option side was profitable after a down June. Although it's quite possible August will get off to a bad start on the Option Side. I am in need of a rally tomorrow, and I don't like to be in a position of needing a certain direction. We shall see...

Exact numbers in the morning.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to jba1962 for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
IB Bracker Order
Platforms and Indicators
Need a near crosses scan help for TOS
ThinkOrSwim
T​​​​​​radestation datafeed (real time and historical) to NT8
NinjaTrader
DLL with webrequest function for MC
MultiCharts
EQIX - Digital REITs - any experiences?
Stocks and ETFs
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received

Options P/L: -1174.26 Month: +3046.96 *Total: +1699.61
DayTrade P/L: +150.74 Month: +10,900.51 *Total: +18,847.63
Premium Sold: 1100.00
Premium Paid: 102.50
Open Premium: 7030.00

Why was I so far off on my estimated loss for the option side in yesterday's wrap? It has to do with the way IB calculates +/- for the day. They display the number based on, primarily, bid/ask spreads. So when the volatility pops at the end like it did yesterday those numbers can get inflated. On my screen it showed me -1847. But the statements I get in the morning are, of course, based on the settlement prices. Normally those numbers are fairly close, but as is seen here, there are exceptions. As far as I can tell, IB never updates the screen to show settle prices, just current value based on bid/ask and resets when the new session begins at 6:00. If anybody knows a way to display settlement prices, I'd be happy to learn something. The day trade portion on the other hand is completely flat at the end of the day and IB properly displays profit/loss even including commissions. So that number will almost always be correct except for the rounding.

* Total is since June 1, since I started this journal in June and June 3 is when I switched to using the micros in the daytrade portion.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jba1962 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received


Option Side: Welp (again) a great day went sour. Was up over 3K when we got a glorious Trump tweet, and the market started getting hammered. In 15 minutes I went from up 3K to negative. Thanks Trump. Probably would have not been negative on the day if I had made an orderly exit, but I didn't. The bane of option sellers is getting demolished on a big run/volatility spike. Is this the beginning of a big crash? Most likely not, but I don't care. I exited every single trade I had, even the calls. I am completely flat and may stay that way for a while. The option selling hasn't been all that profitable lately, and anyone who has traded options for a long long time knows that one horrific move can wipe out months, even years of profits. No thanks. Down 263 on the day, which doesn't sound horrible, but thanks to losing 3K in open profits, it felt way worse.

Day Trade Side: Trade was under water most of the day, and oddly, did improve somewhat after the Trump bomb. But not enough. Down 107 on the day. I didn't do much with this today as I was busy with the option side. Shouldn't be a problem tomorrow.

Exact numbers in the morning.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received

Options P/L: -261.97 Month: -261.97 *Total: +1437.64
DayTrade P/L: -107.16 Month: -107.16 *Total: +18,740.47
Premium Sold: Flatten
Premium Paid: Flatten
Open Premium: 0.00



* Total is since June 1, since I started this journal in June and June 3 is when I switched to using the micros in the daytrade portion.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jba1962 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received

Option Side: Certainly feel like I made the right decision to get to the sidelines yesterday. Still don't think this thing is really going to go down too much, but the volatility spike is not fun to deal with when you are short options. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I am constantly in mind of taking big losses with this style of trading. I've done it before, and it is no fun, and it really beats you up mentally. There was a point where I really questioned if I knew anything at all. So, I am happy to be out and I'm not sure when I'll resume. Had nothing at the beginning of the day. Bought nothing. Sold nothing. Ended the day with nothing.

Day Trade Side: Not really sure how to present this. Because I had nothing on the option side, I did two units on the day trade side. Should I talk numbers per unit, or per overall $ value? If anybody has any thoughts, please let me know. In the meantime I am trying to think what future me will want to see when I re-read this journal some day.

It was somewhat strange from a psychological standpoint too. When doing 1 unit, I tended to consider lightening up if I got up to 1K profit. Or if I had been underwater all day and got back to even. And I'd lighten up some more if the trade kept working. So how do I translate that when doing 2 units? The trade bounced around for hours, gyrating between positive and negative territory. Then it finally started working. I got up 1K (500 per unit) and started thinking about closing some of my trade. Then I said to myself "you can't take the same size winners as you would with 1 unit and also take double the loss when it doesn't work". Recipe for disaster. So I started looking at the numbers on the screen and halving them in my head. That helped some, but I still ended up cutting my position in half when the trade got to 1500, and then cut 2/3 of what I had left when it got up 2K. I finished +2309, certainly a good day, but if I had held both units until the end, I'd have been up 3975. Definitely something to work on.

I don't know how often I will do 2 units. Could simply do that from now on. That's one choice. Or I could do 2 units until I resume the option trading. Or, alternatively, I could do 1 unit after a winning day and 2 units after a losing day. No Martingale here. 2 units max, regardless. A quick test of this shows that the profit goes up nicely this way, while making a relatively small bump in MaxDD, Something to ponder on over the weekend, and I'd love to get input from anybody with any ideas.

Exact numbers in the morning.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jba1962 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received

Options P/L: 0.00 Month: -261.97 *Total: +1437.64
DayTrade P/L: +2309.16 Month: +2202.00 *Total: +21,049.63
Premium Sold: 0.00
Premium Paid: 0.00
Open Premium: 0.00



* Total is since June 1, since I started this journal in June and June 3 is when I switched to using the micros in the daytrade portion.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jba1962 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Upstate NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
mtzimmer1's Avatar
 
Posts: 632 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 1,663 given, 1,349 received

What software are you using to test these spread trades? I use tradestation and there is no easy way to write strategies for spread trading unfortunately.

Thanks,
Zimmer

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mtzimmer1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
Dallas, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: IB, Oanda
Trading: ES, MES, MNQ, MYM
 
kareem40's Avatar
 
Posts: 653 since May 2010
Thanks: 1,864 given, 870 received


mtzimmer1 View Post
What software are you using to test these spread trades? I use tradestation and there is no easy way to write strategies for spread trading unfortunately.

Thanks,
Zimmer

I set up a futures TS account for testing/algo trading. Tested for almost a month....nothing worked..nothing.

K

Follow me on Twitter Visit my Facebook Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #79 (permalink)
Las Vegas Nevada USA
 
 
Posts: 8 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 6 given, 10 received


jba1962 View Post
...

I don't know how often I will do 2 units. Could simply do that from now on. That's one choice. Or I could do 2 units until I resume the option trading. Or, alternatively, I could do 1 unit after a winning day and 2 units after a losing day. No Martingale here. 2 units max, regardless. A quick test of this shows that the profit goes up nicely this way, while making a relatively small bump in MaxDD, Something to ponder on over the weekend, and I'd love to get input from anybody with any ideas.

...

I would recommend sticking to only 1 trade size (either 1 unit or 2 units) consistently, irrespective of winning or losing days. Given that the profit goes up nicely by doing 2 units after a losing day, have you tested the results of going up to 2 units on the same number of random days? I would venture to say that you'd get the same results.

Ideally, the only discretionary aspect of your trading should be the timing of the exits. As you have mentioned in previous posts, this is more art than science. However, increasing trade size (either inter or intra-day), or closing 1 leg of the spread only, should be kept to an absolute minimum.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TradingThomas for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #80 (permalink)
TampaFL
 
Experience: Master
Platform: TWS
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 183 since Oct 2017
Thanks: 97 given, 374 received



mtzimmer1 View Post
What software are you using to test these spread trades? I use tradestation and there is no easy way to write strategies for spread trading unfortunately.

Thanks,
Zimmer

I use NinjaTrader to run a backtest. Then I use another program that I wrote to run a Monte Carlo type simulation based on hundreds of thousands of trades. This gives me an overall idea of what might work, and what won't. I don't consider it truly actionable because it has the Ninja Trader backtest results as its input, and from what I've seen that's not very accurate. Sure would be helpful if it was. But again, it gives me a quick way to evaluate a rough idea.

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Trade for a Living


October 10, 2019


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Getting Comfortable with Price Action Patterns w/Earn2Trade

Aug 4
 

Live Video Panel: Ask Me Anything w/Ironbeam Brokerage

Aug 6
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts