Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC
Updated: Views / Replies:159 / 2
Created: by kolbe Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC

  #1 (permalink)
Wiltz, Luxembourg
 
 
Posts: 11 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 11 given, 9 received

Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC

I mainly do intra day swing trading, here my wins and losses will be posted with explanation for each .


Last edited by kolbe; June 24th, 2019 at 04:17 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Wiltz, Luxembourg
 
 
Posts: 11 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 11 given, 9 received


This was a trade from last week . (See attached screenshot below at the end of the post)

Market has been in an up trend channel. Initially I would try to draw demand line (lower line) from bar 13 low to bar 1 low, then 13 to 2; before finally settling for a line through bars 1,2,3 lows as it contains the most touches . A parallel was attached to opposite side of price action .

At bar 4, we notice market isn't able to touch the supply line (upper line) as next 2 bars were both down bars . It means supply is coming up earlier than expected or demand is weakening .

Then at bar 5 , we notice a good spread up bar closing firm just at supply line with a pop in volume - which indicates demand is coming in market . Then on next bar 6, we notice an even wider spread bar with another surge in volume over the previous bar .

However , the bar closes off the high almost at midpoint . If there's pure buying present in this bar, why the bar closed off the high near it's midpoint ? If it was pure buying , bar should've closed near the high just like the previous bar closed near it's high . Sellers were strong enough to make price come down by it's close at around it's midpoint , after buyers had managed to make a much higher high than the previous bar . So we know selling must be present in this bar .

Also, notice where in channel is this supply happening ? We're overbought in our up channel as we're overshooting the supply line with bar 6 . We expect supply to emerge at our supply line in channel, hence the name supply line . Here, supply is coming into market where we exactly expect it to .

Next bar was a down bar with good volume , so we know supply is finding it's way in the market .

Now on next bar 7, we notice a bar with close near high . Where is this bar occurring ? We know there was good demand present at bar 5 with pop in volume closing near it's high . Bar 7 dips down just a bit below high of bar 5 to reverse & close firm . What does this tell us? In an area of previous demand , buyers are once again trying to move the market higher as it should . However , look at the volume of bar 7 - very low & substantially lower than bar 5 volume .

Where did all the buyers go from high volume bar 5 ? Bar 7 also has a narrower spread compared to bar 5, it is a no demand bar . The fact that the bar isn't an up bar rather just a level bar with close more or less in the same area as previous bar - is additional sign of weakness .

Though a somewhat aggressive entry, enter by the close of this no demand bar .

For target , we've lower line of this up channel & horizontal support drawn from bars 8,9,10 swing highs available . I discard bar 8 horizontal support target because it has a finished auction in the form of a micro double top with bar 8 & two bar after it .

Bar 9 is a good target because it has unfinished auction present at this swing high, market usually likes to retest areas of unfinished auction . However , it is too close to swing high 10 - and we don't want to build dams too close to each other in water . Resistance (or support once broken) just acts like dam in path of water flow.

Bar 10 horizontal support is the target I like most . Why? 3 reasons . It's the last swing high in the previous down trend before our up channel began . It acts like the back of down trend that should be broken before an up trend can begin . So, this swing high & a horizontal support drawn from this swing high is significant . Also , it lies at a close vicinity to the demand line ( lower line ) of our up channel which is another potent support & potential target area . So, there's a confluence of support is present around bar 10 horizontal support area - giving it more weight than an usual support .

And finally it has enough distance from our entry point at bar 7 no demand bar close 2964.50 , allowing for a good risk to reward ratio . Our stop will be 1 tick above the down bar before bar 7 & our exit price will be at bar 10 horizontal support 2957.50 , giving us about 7 points of reward with a 2 points risk . That's a R:R of a solid 1:3.5 . So for all these reasons , this is the target level that I liked the most in this case .

(Notice , bar 11 swing high wouldn't be the last swing high in previous down trend because price action between bar 11 swing high to bar 13 swing low is sideways , erratic & too close to each other to make a valid swing high)

Market exactly touched our target level by bar 12 before giving a mini pullback up showing us demand is coming in exactly where we expect it to - at the confluence of bar 10 horizontal support & supply line of our up channel . Exit order was actually filled 5 bars after bar 12, for 7 points or 28 ticks .

Attached Thumbnails
Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC-screenshot_1.jpg  

Last edited by kolbe; June 24th, 2019 at 03:29 AM.
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Journal Deciphering Supply & Demand - ES,CL,GC

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

$1,000 in Amazon Gift Cards being given away right now from GFF Brokers

Right now
 

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now
 

Show us your trading desks and win over $5,000 in prizes w/Jigsaw Trading

August
 

Webinar: Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Stats w/Suri Duddella

Elite only
 

Webinar: Richard Bailey (TBA)

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Auto MTF Supply & Demand Zones fxpro312 Sierra Chart 0 November 7th, 2016 01:10 AM
Supply & demand zones: What went wrong on this trade?! Croni Emini and Emicro Index Futures Trading 27 August 16th, 2015 10:25 AM
Supply and Demand Trading Journal with P&F Charts Peke5 Elite Trading Journals 2 January 12th, 2015 04:10 AM
Deciphering Indicators KySt The Elite Circle 12 December 25th, 2014 05:04 PM
JOURNAL OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND (JSD) TRADING gparkis Elite Trading Journals 7 March 1st, 2011 05:24 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:45 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts