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I know what this feels like, this has been my whole trading career, even with a mentor/educator. I think Elliott Wave has helped me more than anything. Still not where I want to be, but I have progressed, from where I started on this journey. Always learning.
Trying to find strength sometimes is hard. One day you think you are getting it, then SMACK! You learn a new lesson.
When you have doubts, and you think you're no good at this and say I am not good. Change this phrase and say, I am not good, yet, because you/we will all materialize this dream if you/we stay around long enough and truly become students of the markets not for the money, but you really love this. All those educators that say they have been trading for 20-30 years, they probably sucked for the first 15-18. Perhaps, some of them still suck, and they are selling education instead of placing trades. I commented earlier, but I can really relate to this comment, and I am sure many on this forum can too.
This is a good motivational song, the Market will break you down and build you up again, in it's image.
I have decided to start over with the basics and build a new trading plan from the ground up.
Below are my Trading "Truths"
#1: Price Respects Prior Highs and Lows
-What is a High or Low? It is where supply exceeded demand or demand exceeded supply. They are also obvious levels that everyone can see. I believe that awareness of these levels as potential areas to initiate or terminate trades improves the odds of a successful trade and maximizes profit when in a trade.
Additionally: Naked POC's Function in the Same Way
#2: Price Moves in Swings/Waves
-Every swing is a composite of swings on a smaller time-frame. Large/quick moves occur when all waves align. I believe that by aligning myself with the force of the market through swing analysis one can be on the right side of the market more often than not.
Very simple, yes, but I feel that beginning with a refresher of the basics is smart. I also don't believe trading needs to be complicated in order to be profitable. Difficult, absolutely but complicated, not necessarily.
I absolutely agree and will be very interested to watch your new plan develop. Maybe I'll be able to piggy-back on your new plan! Best of luck in the new project!
Mike
NW Trader
There is no path to happiness. Happiness is the path.
What I've Been up to:
-I read @Inletcap 's Journal and wow was it inspiring. Worth the cost of the Elite Membership for his journal alone!
-I ran day-type statistics and after a few tens of hours concluded that there is nothing but marginal edges to be exploited.
-I was once again reminded of how difficult it is to write a code-able intraday strategy. I have written and currently trade a suite of 5 strategies on the daily chart, but still have yet to write any decent intraday strategies.
-What are my choices? 1) Forget about daytrading and work on writing more algorithms to trade the daily chart. 2) Return to (Rule-Based) discretionary trading and work on accepting it and moving on when I am wrong.
What I am Currently Pondering:
-I want to try trading "without" a stop loss. There are a couple of ways I could do this. 1) Trade very small so as to be able to survive a 2-3 sigma event. 2) Acquire a basket of long-term dividend stocks. Only day-trade to the short side as a partial to full hedge against the long basket. 3) Put on directional trades with defined risk option credit spreads. Close at target or expiration. 4) Sell directional trades with naked options (naked put/call or ratio spread). Only day-trade against the naked option when it is taking heat. 5) Sell non-directional near-dated naked option and only day-trade in the direction of the side that is taking heat.
1) is not great because small size means small profit.
2) makes good sense to me. Every green day would be good for the long-term holding. Every red day, in theory, would be negated partially by the intra-day hedge.
3), 4) and 5) make sense to me because selling premiumdoes have a statistical edge. The only thing I don't like about the directional trades strategies is that I know I will have a hard time taking a day-trade "against" my expectation/thesis. If I sell a put it is because I expect price to rise. If price starts to fall and test my strike, and I can't explain why price is doing this, I will not want to put a short on. This is where disaster strikes for any mean-reversion strategy. When an unexpected trend sets in and you continue to average in on the wrong side of the market.
Phew, that is all I've got for now. Please offer any feedback you may have. I can certainly use all the help I can get.
I don't have much of a bias today. Technically I am expecting a fifth wave higher into the previous highs of this range, however I would not be surprised if we continued lower to test the bottom of the range. I don't like trading in the middle of a range because even if you do get direction right, the trade could easily last a very long time as price meanders in an accepted range.
I am short a large position on the Russell on the longer term. Targeting December lows with that trade.
A very balanced day! If I had to bet, I would guess that we break to the downside out of the range today sometime during the overnight session or tomorrow RTH.
Expectation as of 10:17 is for YM to trade down to yesterdays RTH high. If it pushes through, then yesterdays naked VPOC is a natural target. If I were to take this trade I would commit to my conviction and place my protective stop somewhere near the ETH high.
I am not taking this trade because I am net short and don't feel that it is intelligent to add more risk in the same direction.
Perhaps, some of them still suck, and they are selling education 
