Zimmer's Journal: Naked Chart Reading
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Zimmer's Journal: Naked Chart Reading


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Created May 20th 2019 by mtzimmer1
Updated September 30th 2019 by mtzimmer1
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Zimmer's Journal: Naked Chart Reading

  #21 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Broker/Data: IB, ToS
Favorite Futures: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
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Posts: 3,113 since Aug 2011
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So, this...

is the "entry" chart. As such there are no "levels" displayed. Just the final "trigger" before I'll trade the ES.
Just pointing out divergences, to see how they line up with whatever you had on SPY today BUT of course I chopped off the time on the horizontal axis.

Way past my bedtime too.

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  #22 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
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wldman View Post
is the "entry" chart. As such there are no "levels" displayed. Just the final "trigger" before I'll trade the ES.

Just pointing out divergences, to see how they line up with whatever you had on SPY today BUT of course I chopped off the time on the horizontal axis.



Way past my bedtime too.



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Thank you for sharing, divergences would have worked very well yesterday for getting in at the bottom and out at the top. Iím sure combining divergence with areas of interest increases the accuracy. What indicator are you using and is it open-source?

Thanks again!


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  #23 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
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Hey..


Yes, I was trying to suggest a confirming rationale that could be used as a trigger when price is at a level thought to be important. That chart shows Klinger Volume Oscillator. I am certain that someone from the forum made a NT version for me.

Again unsolicited: I believe you will benefit if you expand your time frame. It is fine to have a "target" but IMO one of the important keys is to let winners run.

One of the very difficult things for me to learn was that I do not have to be on every trade anymore. As a market maker that is part of the game, to be on every trade, to get the volume transactions on your ledger. We can be selective now and TRY to take only the best trades, the ones we think have legs.

-Dan

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  #24 (permalink)
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With central standard time.

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  #25 (permalink)
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Zimmer's Journal: Naked Chart Reading


wldman View Post
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The first bullish divergence didnít line up with any level I had drawn. The bearish divergence at 10:30 EST was right at the overnight swing high. And the second bullish divergence around 11 EST I also did not have marked.


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  #26 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
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Nothing for me today. Saw one potential trade but believed that the trade "didn't have legs." I was correct. Trade was a winner albeit a small one. Not worth taking.

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  #27 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
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An Excellent End to an Excellent Week/Month

Trade 1
This was an aggressive entry, with a somewhat lower probability of success. Trade initially moved against me and then in my favor. Failed to achieve my first target so I tightened my stop up and was taken out for a 1/2R loss. Price moved higher and would have jumped right through my original stop. This was good trade management as I saved myself 1/2R.

Trade 2
This was my second attempt at fading the rally. This trade setup had a much higher probability of success and because we had moved higher from my first attempt, I recognized that we had farther to fall. This is a trade setup that has "legs!"

-Entered with a 1/2 position because I had cold feet after the first trade. Bad!
-Price immediately moved in my favor and I added up to an equivalent full position on the next pullback while simultaneously tightening my stop to my first entry.
-Price moved lackadaisically to my first target where I was thankful to lock in some profits. I further tightened my stop to my second entry at this point.
-My third target was the halfway back of the day. (50%) This happened to be where both the Daily Open and VWAP both were as well. This confluence had me feeling fairly confident that price would not move much lower if at all.
-Closed my position. It was past my trading time for the day so I closed the screen instead of looking for a long.

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Results:
1 win
1 loss
+1.38 R

What I did well:
-Analysis
-Entered positions without hesitation
-Did not cut my winner short but did cut my loser quickly.

What I could do better:
-Enter with full positions always.
-Only take setups with high probabilities. Better to miss a trade than take a loser.

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  #28 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
 
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Posts: 485 since Dec 2018
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Stats for the Month of MAY, 2019:

Total Trades: 64 (2.37/Day)

Total Wins: 29 (45%)
Total Losses: 27 (42%)
Total Break-Evens: 8 (13%)

Avg Win/Avg Loss: 1.23
Expectancy: 13.35R/100 trades
Max DD: 10.8R
Total Return: 4.73R (.21R/Day - .07R/Trade)

Thoughts:
-First profitable month! Woo hoo! Still a lot of work to do.
-Win rate for the month sucked because the first two weeks were subpar performance. Win rate from 5.20 thru now has been 50% to a loss rate of 33% (17% break-even rate). I like those stats much more and intend on retaining and improving on those stats in the month of June.
-Too many break-even trades that should have been winners. This is a result of managing trades too aggressively and not allowing any breathing room. of the 8 break-even trades, 6 would have been winners. These odds are all I need to see to remind me not to choke out my trades in the future!
-While these results do produce a positive expectancy, the margin for error is thin and I would like to improve that number considerably.

Course of Action for Next Month:
-Decrease trade frequency to focus on trade quality.
-Improve win rate as a function of decreasing trade frequency.
-Improve avg win/avg loss ratio by taking trades that have "legs" and allowing those trades to run their course.


Last edited by mtzimmer1; May 31st, 2019 at 07:53 PM.
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  #29 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
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First Live Futures Trade

Over this past weekend I thought about my performance in the months of May and have decided to increase my Risk per trade. I plan on gradually increasing my risk each month so long as my performance continues to improve. I also decided to switch over to futures from equities.
I thought about trading Micros but with my broker the commissions are absolutely lethal. 10 contracts of micros is $49.40 round trip while 1 contract e-mini is $6.90 for the same leverage.
The tradeoff is that I can not scale out of positions as I have become accustomed to, nor am I afforded granularity with my entry.
These luxuries are not worth paying 7x as much in commissions.
The plan for now is to continue refining my entry criteria and only taking trades that have "legs." Once I am comfortable with my performance I will take the leap and move from 1 contract up to 2.

OK, Let's Talk about Today!

Entries:
-Annotated on the chart.
-Was also watching NQ and YM to confirm my hypothesis.
-I've begun to research intermarket correlations and divergences. I don't know much but I do know that trades have a higher probability when all the indeces are moving the same direction.
Exits:
-50% of Daily swing.
-Did not anticipate price to continue dropping so rapidly. Did not want to be stupidly greedy. Trade was already up more than 3R.
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Results:
1 win
+3.9R

Feel quite good about today. I did not manage this trade any differently than I had been managing the SPY trades of half the size. What I have learned about myself as a trader is that I don't care about the money but I do care about winning/losing. This is both good and bad. Hopefully this means I should have no problem scaling up and that trading larger positions should be no different than trading smaller positions.

What I need to think about:
My trade today makes the case for managing by just trailing each swing high. Implementing this method would have yielded 10 more points or a win DOUBLE the size. Of course, today was an unusual day and most of my entries do not result in 10R wins. Trading without the ability to scale out of positions is uncomfortable for me. I have not backtested yet to decide what the "best" trade management technique is for single entry-single exit trades.


Last edited by mtzimmer1; June 3rd, 2019 at 04:30 PM.
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  #30 (permalink)
Bluffton, SC
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 485 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 1,093 given, 1,047 received

Did (almost) Everything Right...


Good day today. 1 losing trade but it met the rules so what can I do!

Okay so here is something new. I am learning about harmonics and today I observed a bat pattern on the DOW:
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Cool, so now lets see what happened on the smaller time frame in the area of completion of the bat:
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We had an expectation failure on the immediate swings. This is my trigger to enter. Price chopped at my entry before taking me out. I could have saved myself some points by tightening my stop when price failed to make a new low but ultimately this trade was a hedge on a bigger trade I put on long at the close yesterday in my retirement account so no biggie.

P.S. WHAT A RALLY TODAY!

Results:
1 loss
-.93R

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