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This morning's open was quite heavy. Overall there was a downward drift into the 26-27 area, finally putting in an IBL of 25.25.
From here, buyers slowly floated up slowly to the holy trinity 31-32 area, but chopped around some more. I'm assuming this was in anticipation of the 2pm FOMC event.
I don't really like trading on FOMC days personally, so I don't want to comment much about today or take any trades. That said, it seems the market drifted lower right into the announcement, and then we saw a huge surge up that continued higher, though late traders had a few pullbacks to get in (namely touches of the IBH/Open area in the 37s).
Thoughts
Not much for me to do on these kinds of days. I acknowledge that a lot of people make a quick buck on the backs of FOMC announcements but it's not for me right now.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
What can I really say here? Big Open Drive going straight up all morning, forming a whopping 20+ point IB. IBH came in at 40.75, and in this neighborhood I personally didn't see any good upcoming spots to fade, nor did I see any dips to buy.
Buyers pushed much higher into pHigh at 49.25, which maybe was a "first stop" where bulls could take profits. A few 3-3.75 point down rotations to the 46s were as close as you could get to a dip, before ripping back up to new highs at 56.50 at 11:58am.
I didn't see any signs that the high was in, but it's a good thing I didn't buy any initial ~4 point pullbacks, because the buyers took the lunch hour off to celebrate. Sellers pulled it down 10.25 points back to the 46s (mentioned just earlier), so people chasing this rip could have gotten in with a standard 2-3 point stop, targeting new highs.
It's about 1:45pm when I'm writing this and they did come close to new highs, missing by 3 ticks. If you had gone long at 47, you could have set your stop at maybe 45 and targeted the 54s and 56s for 4R.
Ultimately I took no trades today. In my past I would've likely scalped some of these strong upward moves, but I didn't find anything compelling given my current trading plan/style.
Thoughts
Similar to yesterday, I don't prefer to trade these types of days. I think this is valuable and demonstrates restraint on my part. There's also a lot of value in collecting data on what kind of good R:R trades to consider adding to my playbook. For example, identifying that 46 area as short-term support would've been the basis of the trade idea I bolded above.
I'm currently recovering from a sore throat and cough that kept me awake last night, so I'm resting up, gearing up for next week. Have a great weekend!
No screenshot today, because I'm still a bit sick and not paying full attention to the market. That said, here's my commentary so far...
Shop Talk
Buyers came in early off the open to push from the 02s and 03s way up to 13.50 (this ended up being the IBH). It didn't hold up at all, with a nearly immediate inverted-V dump back down to new lows. It seems sellers were in control for the first hour, as we chopped downward below the open within a slowly drifting ~10 point range.
At 10:23am the IBL came in at 90.50 to form a bit of a floor. This coincided with the ONLow, so it was a solid dip buy area for aggressive buyers. (I personally would have expected support here, but would not take a long trade until I saw a pullback, say to the 94s, with a tight 4-5 tick stop.)
Buyers showed up again to take us up 10 points back to the open. There was some resistance here, with a few pullbacks, but at around 10:50am, buyers comfortably won the battle and cleanly ramped up to the 07-09 area with conviction.
Again, some dips followed, giving buy opportunities at pLow (05.25). I would have considered this long, given the strength of the bulls today, with cumulative delta increasing towards zero (floating around -1000 to -3000). The setup would be a continuation long into new highs on the day (shooting well past the IBH, up through the 14-15 area). However, once again, I wouldn't have a confident stop. I could reasonably see a pullback down to the Mid and Open at that 01.75 or 02.00 area, which is a painful 4 points down, and I don't like that risk, absolutely speaking (relatively, it's something like 9:4, so still not great).
Anyway, the bulls, as expected, succeeded in puncturing the IBH off of this pLow area. It shot past 13.50 and tagged pVPOC to the tick, up at 15.25.
Unfortunately for bulls, that was as good as it was going to get for the time being. We sold off, back down, so the day was looking rather balanced. Mid and VWAP (s) looked like support for a while during the start of the lunch hour, but the battled continued as price drifted aimlessly, rotating more or less around that Mid and VWAP (s) area which also coincided roughly with the century figure: the magical 2800.
Thoughts
In my eyes, this day had a few decent trade opportunities, but my health isn't ideal right now for taking any. I see that VPOC seemed to be a great guide today, especially going into/after the lunch hour.
The fact that cumulative delta only peeked above 0 for a few minutes during those brief new highs told me that being on the short side was probably a bit more favorable, but ultimately I feel zero FOMO today. There was no good reason for me to short the initial touch of pVPOC when those new highs hit -- better to wait for confirmation, unless I'm mentally prepared to very quickly react with one of those huge R:R moonshot attempts (say, 1 point stop, targeting 4+ points lower).
We gapped ~7 points up overnight, and continued steadily upward off the open.
A
At around 9:50am, a 6 point rotation down came in, briefly dipping below the holy trinity. This honestly was a good long opportunity, say at 27.75. This would have been good for 6 ticks of risk, targeting new highs. 26.25 would be your stop (actual heat came in just 2 ticks short), targeting the 33 area (maybe a standard scale-out at 2R, at 30.75).
B Delta divergence is a concept I'm not too experienced trading with, but I think I also saw a potential short near the attempted new highs at 10:00am.
The delta highs made at that 32.75 high at 9:46am got hit hard during the subsequent down rotation. While new highs were hit going into 10:00am, delta was noticeably lower than its earlier peak, and in fact drifted down slightly during that weird tense failure to push above 33.00 in the next 2-3 minutes.
Perhaps it was valid to short this area (31.75, 32.00 if possible), with a stop naturally at new highs (say 33.50 itself) and a target down near Mid in the 28 area. That's a touch above 2R (1.75 for 3.75). Maybe not the cleanest setup, but something I'm going to monitor/study more.
**Afternoon edit:**
C
We finally filled the gap (fully) to the tick at 15.25. Immediately price jumped back up to the IBL. Even with hindsight, I don't think this was a good buying level, given accelerating delta to the downside and a clear breach of the IBL after noon.
D I think this IBL area was a decent short opportunity. The only problem was that it sharply fell back down to fresh lows, without ever actually touching the IBL itself. It came 1 tick short, meaning that entering the short would require sort of front-running the IBL.
Thoughts
I hesitated on that 9:50am long. The setup was there. Cumulative delta was still positive. One factor that (irrationally) gave me pause was the gap up -- I was wary of the historical tendency to fill the half gap, at least. Either way, this was a mistake and I am taking note of it.
I'm taking an early lunch and may modify this post later today. Need to work on not hesitating.
**Afternoon edit:**
The IBL re-short was a solid setup. I think I would've put my stop 6-7 ticks up by Mid (and ONHigh) and targeted new lows on the day. Unfortunately I missed it!
A
We got an open auction in range this morning, and the big early rotation was to the downside. However, buyers quickly responded with growing upward rotations (see the ones I circled above).
This hinted that it was time to buy dips, perhaps off touches of VWAP (s) or Mid. Maybe even the 20s, 21s, if you were aggressive.
IBH came in at 23.50, and it was quickly broken a few minutes later by 3 ticks (24.25). Unfortunately, buyers couldn't bid it up any higher with conviction. Quickly we saw a 5.5 point rotation down, then 6.75 point rotation down.
B
Again, I think that this was delta divergence, similar to what we saw a few days ago (as I mentioned in my 3/26/19 post two days ago). Look at the sloping lines. New highs were made, but delta was very clearly declining. This hinted to me that the real incoming move was downward.
At 10:46am, I shorted 19.75 with small size, with a 6-tick stop. My initial target was the open (about 4 points down at 15.50), ultimately aiming for the IBL (another 5 points further down). I took 1 tick of heat (!) and scaled out at 15.75, then got flat a touch lower at 13.50.
Thoughts
I'm filing this trade setup under "failed breakout via delta divergence" because that's what I saw. I'm warming up to this delta divergence idea!
I think I mismanaged the exit, because 13.50 was just me emotionally feeling scared of it coming back to my first scale. The setup targets IBL with a good reason: the IB represents where the short timeframe auction has been today. If no one's interested in pushing higher, then it's not unreasonable to expect price to drift lower, looking for buyers.
Thank you, @sideeyeseal. I found this entry very helpful, especially the "open auction in range" reference which led me to the link of the five opening types. I am really struggling to manage these current market-behaviors. Thank you!
Glad to hear I could help, @snax! Indeed, the opening types really help a lot, as does being familiar with what tendencies certain day types bring to the table (e.g. filling a gap, filling a half-gap, hitting the previous Mid, etc.).
Waiting to see the open is also one of the main reasons I gain a lot more confidence in my post-IB trades, because I'm waiting for the various timeframe buyers/sellers to show their hand.
Similar to a few days ago, we gapped up overnight (11 points) and quickly drifted downward to the half-gap (29.75). Two close attempts were made at 9:40am and 9:42am, but a more definitive rotation came in around 9:47am. As I write this, the IBL has reached downward into 28.00, with more likely to come.
This IBL area of 28.50-29.00 is not a bad entry for a long, given:
a) plenty of buyers coming in absorbing these three prices (order flow)
b) coincides with Mid (f)
c) half-gap fill stat is already done
Still, I'm not convinced of a good stop for this long trade. I suppose a super tight stop is appropriate, since we are really using those absorbing buyers as our primary support. So 3-5 ticks below 28.50 could work.
A decent target would be perhaps that holy trinity area not too far above, in the 32s.
Thoughts
I did not take this trade because I'm traveling out of town this afternoon and have to take care of a few things. No FOMO on this long idea; just adding it to my journal and considering adding it to my playbook...
