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Three long bars in one day, about 100 point movements each. I was on the wrong side of each of those. This is reminiscent of what we've seen in the past with crypto, where you have whales pumping and dumping. (I've not traded crypto, professionally that is, only watched the market since the early days before blockchain became a thing.) I'm not saying that is what happened, but only the middle bar (amateur hour) seemed related to any news (bad ADP report).
My instinct today told me, right before the close of the 930 bar (and open of the NYSE), that I should exit my long position and sit out a bar or two. Shoulda-coulda-woulda. I am system driven. And sometimes the system will do this.
Today's Results:
3 entries, three exits (short, long, long, long), 3 losses, about -$1,066
Currently in a position long; got a good entry here and the market gapped up on reopen....good sign, usually
Tomorrow:
Keep trading
Work on a strategy that looks for both range and consolidation conditions happening, and applying appropriate techniques to each condition. I want my cake and want to eat it, too.
Continue thinking about how to profitably manage a trend following strategy
I have a pounding headache. I'm tired. So I will go to bed early.
No actual target. $2500 profit target, but that's just the upper limit. My exits are on reversals, so I may only see the profit target hit a few times a year.
That's the risk built into an automated strategy. I haven't tried using volume bar, but I am a swing trader, so I'm looking for things in the intermediate timeframe. The 30 minute time is just right for this particular strategy. Just not for this day.
I'll give the volume bar some thought. There is a spike in volume sometimes between 2000 and 2130.
Today was a pretty good day, all-in-all. I am trying to hone my profit taking skills, particularly my market reentry points. I'm kind of hyper in general and can get impatient at times, so I need to be patient in those 'quiet' times of the market.
I was in a long position overnight. I flipped the position a couple of times, for safety and profit taking.
We had a big open (1000 EDT, 30 minute bar), 83 points open to close, I saw a potential retracement after the 1100 bar, but didn't act on it. I considered taking a second long position just for a short period to scalp a little (somehow my account allows it...don't know why), but I didn't. I need to be comfortable with the retracements before I start fooling around too much with that.
I marked-up this screenshot for another forum post, but it shows what I'm talking about with retracement, specifically a 50% retracement (Fibonacci style):
The Strategy Change
I have been watching the daily chart with great interest, seeing if I can ride a long entry as far as I can. I think I may have caught the beginning of a longer term trend. I don't trade to eat (at least this account), so I can just sit on this while/if it rides. Here is what I'm looking at on the daily:
So I have turned off my automated strategy for now, with the exception of my exit strategy (handles stop loss and target profit).
Which has me thinking of a different approach. I may do a hybrid strategy or two strategies: one intra-day and one daily. My overall sentiment is long for the YM as confirmed by several reliable indicators, but the intra-day silliness still occurs and I may want to profit from various moves within the day. I may see if I can develop a strategy where I can trade two contracts. It is all just in my head right now, so I'll have to meditate and sleep on it.
Today's Results:
Exit long position for profit taking, +$332
Reentered a few points below that to cover commission and a burrito (It's national burrito day, ya'll)
I stretched out my stop-loss to accommodate the daily strategy, so I don't get whipsawed: $500
Currently up $220 (open long position)
Essentially, if my current position crashes out, then I'm basically even. My stops will tighten as we advance.
Tomorrow:
Other than watching my position, I have no plans for Friday
I may scalp a little, depending on what is happening
Before I go, fun fact: Did you know that Fibonacci was also known as Leonardo of Pisa, among other names? The more you know....
I have tested eight years back. It works well in some market conditions, not so well in others. As I mentioned before, it requires some tuning. It is not a holy grail system and not really something I can just leave running unattended. It works great sometimes and meh other times. I may only use this for equities at the end of the day. It is missing something, possibly another filter.
Yeah, it is Friday all right. This twitchy market must have been fun for some, maybe not for others. Since I have switched over to a daily strategy, I am basically still in.
Yesterday, after I returned from soccer practice, I saw the market jump 108 points on the 2100 (60-min) bar, with 10 times the normal volume. I have no clue what drove it up, but I see a spike in volume between 2000 and 2200 EDT, about once or twice a week.
I was still long, so no problem there. As usual, once the excitement was over, I decided to scalp that run. I exited and reentered with a small $45 profit, but still keeping my sights (and position) on the long term uptrend. I am essentially using the scalps to exit for profit taking, then reenter at a good point. I have to carry a larger stop loss since I am trading longer term.
It was fun watching the 900 bar spike when the jobs report came out at 8:30. Seriously, within seconds after 8:30:00 the spike was amazing. Pull up a second or tick chart for that to see the wild ride (I'm sure it showed on ES, too). The fun was short lived and the market returned to that point within 2 hours. This is the 30 minute chart: [img]https://i.postimg.cc/3NhC6mp8/SNAG-0149.png[/img]
Today's Results:
1 exit and reentry to the long side (took an additional $45 in scalping profit)
Closed profit of $408
Open position just about $0 (market has a few minutes to close)
I wrote a strategy to test the theory that you could enter the market at close and exit at the open, and be profitable; check it out here
This Week's Results:
$1,515 profit, mostly from Monday's trade activities carried over from the week before
My first profitable week! Yeah baby!
I'm proud of the work I've done, but am still not totally comfortable.
My long term trend is confirmed; hopefully it holds
other times. I may only use this for equities at the end of the day. It is missing something, possibly another filter.