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2019 Dow E-Mini YM Trading Journal
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2019 Dow E-Mini YM Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Newark, Delaware USA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation,Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Tradestation Securities
Favorite Futures: E-Mini's for now
 
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

Thursday EOD Update 28-Feb-2019

I can't believe it is already Thursday! This week has flown by.

We carried an open short position overnight and exited at 800 this morning with a small profit of $48. We then entered again at 900, short, and have been riding this all day.

Here is where we are:
Today's results:
  • $48 closed profit
  • 1 open short position, currently profitable
Since we will be carrying this overnight, we shall have to see what happens before 900. We are hoping the downtrend continues and we can ride this out to a profit. Even if the market pulls back, we should be able to exit profitably based our exit criteria.

Not a terribly exciting win, but these small wins are pretty rare. And hey, a win is a win!

See you all tomorrow!

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  #12 (permalink)
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Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

End of a Bad Week

Well, this week has thankfully come to an end. I am in a really horrible mood right now, because I made a rookie mistake and I pride myself in my ability to execute. It was a $300 mistake, not much, but it was unnecessary.

This started last night. We were in a short position on YMH19, when we were bumped out by the happy news from China, driving the market in the opposite direction. No problem, there. We made a few bucks from that when our rule had us exit gracefully.

I noticed there is a ton of volume on the 2000 and 2100 bars (EST). That is something I've learned and will look into deeper for possible trading opportunities. This could explain why this contract opens up Sunday evenings.

My mistake was a strategy problem. It looks like I fat-fingered the short entry value (our support value). The worst part was that it was nearly at the bottom of a down bar.... in other words I caught the bottom of the market on the wrong side. I would post a picture of my chart, but I'm really in no mood.

By the time I realized my mistake, it had already jumped 60 points. I picked an exit and made my less than graceful departure from the market.

At the end of the day, we just missed a long entry at 1600, which was just fine with me. Of course I may live to regret those words, but we shall see. In our case, we don't want to be in the market all the time.

All in all, this was not our best week. I was down, but I have not tallied the total amount. Looking at the closing bar of today, we are still in a range. Psychologically I did great, did not let my emotions interfere (just my fat fingers), and even after my mistake today I did not pull the plug or go on a tantrum.

~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~

Based on observations last night with the volume spikes around 2000, I've begun exploring sweet spots with respect to trading times. I've already known about this from Mark Fisher's writings, but applying some of that thinking to our existing strategies has me testing some time windows. I am actually looking at 2-3 hour windows where we may trade, or not for the day. So far, this is looking very good.

~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~

Next week:
  • Looking forward to a real break from range in YM;
  • Testing narrow trading windows;
  • Developing and testing a strategy based on Supertrend

~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~ + ~

It is, as my assistant says, 'Wine-o-clock', or 'Beer-o-clock' if you prefer. (Tea-o-clock if you don't drink)

Have a great weekend all, and see you on the other side of the weekend.

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

Monday EOD Update 4-Mar-2019


Just a quick update, as I will be working into the night.

YM broke range in a big way today, if you didn't see/hear the news. Today we took three entries on our signals, but we were too late in two cases. I did run into a problem where my stoploss was ignored in my strategy. I also had TradeStation crash while in a position, not ideal as I was in a position that was trending strongly. Fortunately I resolved without too much of an issue. TradeStation's days are numbered in our shop.

End of day:
  • Down $806
  • In a short entry, currently profitable
My partner is urging patience on this market, and I know she's right. We went through a similar situation with Crude (CL) a few months ago, before it turned in our favor. We shall see how the Asian markets respond to today's Dow movement.

In the meantime, I'm testing a minor adjustment to our exits that should let our profits run longer before exit.

Sunny days ahead!

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  #14 (permalink)
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Tuesday EOD Update 05-Mar-2019

I started today in a short contract. There was something wacky going on with TradeStation, so I rebooted, exited and reentered the short position (captured enough to cover commission). We rode the short contract all day.

Today's results:
  • Flat (we are actually up $20, but seriously....it's flat for the day, let's not kid ourselves here)
  • We are still in our short position
I'm actually a little surprised that we haven't been bumped out. My partner has developed two exits for this strategy, so she recommended the exit that offered more wiggle room. Big move days are usually followed by a loss in our strategy, so I generally sit on the bench. I know the market is waiting for the big US-China news, but it is getting kind of boring. Hoohum.

Anyhow, I've been working on a strategy around CCI that may prove to be promising, especially if paired with our other strategy. Here is what I based my strategy on: A simple strategy based on CCI zero bounce

I also wrote the short version of it today and am currently testing on YM, NQ and TY (just for fun). It is not an every day strategy, but I think it may have a place in our toolbox. The main issue I have is with the exits, but that will come in time.

Tomorrow:
  • I'm kinda swamped, but I may write an exit strategy based on custom criteria. I'm struggling with exits for anything other than my current live trading strategy;
  • Taxes
  • Watching to see if this trade runs
...and before logoff, a special shoutout to ABCTG for their help with sorting out the nuances of EasyLanguage.

See you all tomorrow!

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  #15 (permalink)
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Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

Tuesday EOD Update 05-Mar-2019 - Addendum

Because I am the worst about this, here is what my live chart looks like. We were already in at the beginning of the day (we had a special exit/reentry mentioned in the prior post). It was super rangy, broke and retraced a couple of times, but didn't affect us. It broke range in the 1700 hour and is drifting south...just like we planned it:

[IMG]
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[/IMG]

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  #16 (permalink)
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
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Wednesday EOD Update 6-Mar-2019

Here is today's update, short and sweet:
  • In a short position, running a $685 profit
Today we finally saw movement and we are currently still in our short position, with no signs of exit yet. Aside from our standard stop loss, we use a couple of different exits depending upon the situations. Examples:

Short position:
  • Exit when slow stochastic (240 or 60 minute) crosses middle, or
  • Exit when slow stochastic (240 or 60 minute) crosses into overbought
For us, this allows profits to run and maximizes profits. It occasionally gets us out of a position in a reversal situation, before taking a position in the other direction.

Here is the daily chart, showing a general bearish run since the yearly market top on February 25th (CCI Average indicator is there just for fun):
[IMG]
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[/IMG]

I expect the easing of trade issues will drive this market up again, but for now the news has been tepid and the market is looking for direction

Tomorrow:
  • Monitoring this trade
  • Working on a new exit strategy that integrates some of our stochastic rules with trailing stops (stops adjusted on the fly)

vmodus..... out

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  #17 (permalink)
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
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YM Break-Out Day!

Well, today is the day I have been looking for since Feb 15th, when I missed my first trade which would have been an $1800 winner (data subscription issue caused me to miss my first big move). Muddling through the range we've been in, I observed yesterday the continual downward pressure on the YM, as seen on yesterday's daily chart that I shared here.

The arbitrary trendline that I drew on that chart continued in that direction as expected. This screenshot of the daily chart has the same line I drew yesterday:

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Today started kind of weird. I learned something new about TradeStation: I should not change parameters of a strategy while in a position. Somehow, I ended up with two contracts at the same time, both short, even though in theory I should have had a margin call (I have only funded this account to allow one contract to be traded), I didn't, probably because this is a sub-account of our main account, which is funded for our other trading activities.

Anywho... I carried the two contracts, while I tried to figure it out. So then I exited, because I was technically running on negative money. This might have been a little mistake. Here is what happened:
  • Exit one contract: about 9:10 am, still holding one contract short
  • By 9:45, all heck had broken loose as YM took a dive along with the Dow
  • If I had held a little longer, I could have reeled in a nifty bonus profit from my mistake
  • On the flipside, if the market turned back again, we would have lost double.
Today's results:
  • Exited 1 contract for $848 profit
  • Still holding 1 short contract, currently running at ~ $1000
So not a bad day to catch up on the losses I've been enduring. We shall see if our profit target is hit or our exit strategy is invoked. Either way, it has been a good day. The main takeaway is that I have stuck with my strategy, have not intervened (other than a couple of goofy mistakes).

Tomorrow:
  • See if the trend continues and we still ride the profits
  • Catch up on some stuff that I've been neglecting (taxes anyone?)



-vmodus >>> out

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  #18 (permalink)
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

Wednesday EOD Update 08-Mar-2019

So today was very much an interesting day. We started with a sweet downward trend from the poor Asian market performance overnight. This wasn't sustained and the jobs report wasn't enough to keep the market down through the day. So we retraced right back to where we started.
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I'll be honest, our exit point stinks, but maybe it just for this trade. We leave enough wiggle room for the waves of retracement we usually see. But I think we can do some profit taking, get back in and allow our stops or exits to get us out or keep us in as needed. I think we left at least $1,100 on the table, $700 of which I think we could have pocketed.

Today's Results:
  • Still in a short position $555+, holding over the weekend (not my favorite thing to do)
The Week's Results:
  • + $260.52
  • Still in another short position.... for now
Well, it's late and I think I've had enough trading for the week. See you all next week!

~vmodus

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  #19 (permalink)
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Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

Sunday Night Special

Sunday is not a normal trading day for me, but since I was holding a position and I wanted to see how the market looks pre-open to open, with respect to price.

The exit rule in my strategy would have gotten me out of the market right at open, with about a $550-600 profit. But I started looking at the bid-ask prices in the Market Depth tool and tried to determine how it was going to open. In the five minutes leading up to 1800 (EDT), I saw pricing on the ask side lower (I was short), then bid prices matching those show up. To be truthful, it was all a learning experience for me to see how these line up pre-market.

Long story short, I guessed correctly about the price (I had a stop limit buy order in just in case it turned upside down), then I gave the market a few minutes to settle in. I exited with a profit of $894, which brings the whole movement profit to $1,742. I figure I was able to get $340 out of that opening movement.

For the record, this is not how I would normally trade, but the Friday close was a nuanced situation and I had a feeling we would lose money by just having the strategy execute immediately on open. As much as we would like to automate everything, there is still some common sense that you just cannot build into a strategy...... yet.

Overall, I'm happy I was able to recoup some of what we lost on retracement Friday.

Tomorrow:
  • I expect another entry in the morning, depending upon what is happening in the Asian and Euro markets.
  • I have a busy day on other business, so my strategy will just run
  • If I have any extra time, I will work on an EasyLanguage strategy that just runs our exit strategies. I will probably put this in a separate post over in the TradeStation area.
  • Get ready for our new couch

~vmodus

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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 69 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 54 given, 45 received

A $400 lesson and a New Couch


Today is going to be short and sweet, as I'm kind of busy. We have a new couch, so everyone is very excited around the house.

Today's results:
  • -$804 (approximately)
  • Learning about Hilbert sine waves... rocket science
So here is my $400 lesson for today. We are currently in contract rollover period for the Dow e-mini. Last night I set my strategy on the YMH (March 2019 expiration) chart and went to bed. Today I had two orders, both of which went against me, for a total of $800 loss. The over-arching lesson was that one of those trades would not have happened if I had been on the YMM chart (Jun 2019 expiration). The volume was there on Friday for YMM, so I should have started trading the newer contract. I didn't plan to pay attention to volume until after today. So today's loss should have been -$402, not -$804, just based on where prices were with respect to our strategy. Here is the chart, as it would have been:

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So there you go, lesson learned. I am totally okay with that. The cool thing is that contract rollover was not that big of a deal (98% of my trading experience is equities, not futures). And I didn't take delivery of a contract for a basket of Dow shares.

Tomorrow:
  • Looking at a possible long entry, as it looks like we might have had a reversal (or not)
  • Learning more about sine waves and John Ehler's research
  • Sitting on our new couch (well....tonight actually)
~ vmodus >>> out and about

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