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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #261 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 80 - June 7, 2019 - cycle-000004 - TGIF!!

Day 80 - "Learn how to come back, learn how to fail, learn how to come-back..."

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

Yesterday was a mess, I still haven't sorted out all the trades, came out slightly ahead though. Onward and upward.


@7:46AM CST - I see an opportunity for a small scalp off the rebound from the NFP plunge earlier.
@7:48AM - Closed out for just a +4-tick gain, then it invariably spikes way up of course. These quick closes are a symptom of entering trades a bit impulsively I think. I don't think its that bad long-term, I just need the right signals internalized which will take time.

@7:51AM - E-mini S&Ps up 12.00 Points, VIX at 15.94.

Much more alert today, really feeling the market today, going to combine my own price-action with good signal bars in areas of the chart that make sense from my "interesting price-levels" perspective. I think having that mind-set helps in both trending and bracketed, choppy markets.

Opening just out of range and we have an Open Auction Out Of Range by the looks of the first couple minutes of Opening-Bell.

Opening swing hi/lo: 2858.25/2854.75 : 3.5 points

We had a pretty textbook "Open-Test-Drive" Opening and I was completely unprepared. More mischief ensued, just like yesterday, too much to post, too little time, will follow up with a more thorough retro this weekend.

= Retro =
BIG Lesson learned this week. When suffering a loss in live-trading, I used to just sit out to avoid making cascading mistakes. I would kinda feel bad and ashamed that I made a bad trade. Here and there I've come back from losses but it was usually in a sim-trading context.

This week I had two days in a row, yesterday and today, where I suffered a substantial loss, then battled back all the way to get back to even. This was a huge step for me in live trading, but I discovered a new mistake.

After I come back, I feel a bit invincible and slap-happy and just place whatever impulsive trade I can find, trying to conquer the world in 5 minutes. This cost me both days, I suffered a second big loss. Then had to battle all the way back again to get back to even a second time.

So I learned an important lesson here. After battling back from a loss, take a moment, breathe, appreciate your accomplishment, and reset your focus, you are starting over basically.

The bigger picture here is that as we discover new ways to succeed, we sometimes aren't psychologically-prepared and we discover new ways to lose. Goes back to that old saying "you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win". I'm not big on these kinds of folk-wisdom but this one rings true for me.

Also, I need to stop busting out the /ESM9 Flamethrower to fix some of my mistakes. This solution will not scale. I've been lucky enough to spot some scalps when I needed them but I have to learn to fix my mistakes in a way that will scale in the future as described above. Then I can trade the /ES more substantially.

I feel like the lessons learned this week are more important than the P/L.

Upward and onward!

Final Results:




Summary
=======
1. + 4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. -24-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
3. +12-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
4. + 4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
5. -16-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
6. + 2-tick gain; /ESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: -18-ticks

Final for the Week: +20-ticks




What i liked:
- Made a big leap forward this week, but it was messy.
- Learned over the last few days that I can consistently come back from losses. I used to just quit in shock or fear, now I can reset and come all the way back. Now I need to learn to reset again after I've come all the way back, without trying to do too much on the next trade or enter impulsively.
- Third week in a row ending with positive ticks.
- Used /ES judiciously.



What I didn't like:
- Need to vastly improve risk/reward-ratio. Expectancy getting crushed with stop-depth experimentation and goofy trades
- Need to get better at identifying trends early. We had an "Open-Test-Drive" and I didn't recognize it for what it was!
- I need way more practice identifying signal bars, had my worst trade on a pretty flawlessly executed short off of a strong bear trend bar, but I didn't understand the context, and the context was completely ambiguous to me still
- lost a bit of touch I had earlier in the week.

Goals for Monday:
- Focus on what I was doing Monday-Wednesday, I could feel the difference between impulse and executing on signal, I lost that a little as the week progressed.
- Begin to identify more ways to spot trends forming early on.
- Work on stats and do tons of reading.
- Keep going, I am starting to see a turnaround in my performance with a bit of consistency.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2) / 27 = 7.0000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16) / 8 = 15.8750 ticks
% win = (27 / 35) = 0.7714
% loss = (8 / 35) = 0.2286
current cycle expectancy = (7.0000 * 0.7714) - (15.8750 * 0.2286) = 1.7708 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.0548 ticks
avg loss = 10.0323 ticks
% win = (73 / 104) = 0.7019
% loss = (31 / 104) = 0.2981
expectancy = (10.0548 * 0.7019) - (10.0323 * 0.2981) = 4.0668 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$102.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
35 trades of 60 entered.
I need (497.25/25) = $19.89 per trade ~ +16-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.7708 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.21

For the week I finished +20-ticks.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES as much as possible and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly. I used the /ES a couple times this week to get back to even.

=== Homework ===

On the 30min Bar Chart today looked like a "Melting Bull Flag!"




sketched market-profile for June 7, 2019

2886.25 D
2886.00 D
2885.75 D
2885.50 D
2885.25 CD
2885.00 CD
2884.75 CD
2884.50 CD
2884.25 CD
2884.00 CD
2883.75 CDH
2883.50 CDH
2883.25 CDH
2883.00 CDH
2882.75 CDGH
2882.50 CDGH
2882.25 CDGH
2882.00 CDGH
2881.75 CDGH
2881.50 CDGHIJ
2881.25 CDGHIJ
2881.00 CDGHIJK
2880.75 CDGHIJK
2880.50 CDGHIJKLM
2880.25 CDGHIJKLM
2880.00 CDGHIJKLM
2879.75 CDGHIJKLM
2879.50 CDFGHIJKLM
2879.25 CDEFGHIJKLM
2879.00 CDEFGHIJKLM
2878.75 CDEFGHIJKLM
2878.50 CDEFGHIJKLM
2878.25 CDEFGHJKLM
2878.00 CDEFGHJKLM
2877.75 CDEFGHJKLM
2877.50 CDEFGHKLM
2877.25 CDEFGHKLM
2877.00 CDEFGHKLM
2876.75 CDEFKLM
2876.50 CDEFKLM
2876.25 CDEFKLM
2876.00 CDEFKLM
2875.75 CDEFKLM
2875.50 CEFKLM
2875.25 CEFKLM
2875.00 CEFKLM
2874.75 CEFKM
2874.50 CFM
2874.25 CFM
2874.00 CFM
2873.75 CM
2873.50 CM
2873.25 CM
2873.00 CM
2872.75 CM
2872.50 CM
2872.25 BC
2872.00 BC
2871.75 BC
2871.50 BC
2871.25 B
2871.00 B
2870.75 B
2870.50 B
2870.25 B
2870.00 B
2869.75 B
2869.50 B
2869.25 B
2869.00 B
2868.75 B
2868.50 AB
2868.25 AB
2868.00 AB
2867.75 AB
2867.50 AB
2867.25 A
2867.00 A
2866.75 A
2866.50 A
2866.25 A
2866.00 A
2865.75 A
2865.50 A
2865.25 A
2865.00 A
2864.75 A
2864.50 A
2864.25 A
2864.00 A
2863.75 A
2863.50 A
2863.25 A
2863.00 A
2862.75 A
2862.50 A
2862.25 A
2862.00 A
2861.75 A
2861.50 A
2861.25 A
2861.00 A
2860.75 A
2860.50 A
2860.25 A
2860.00 A
2859.75 A
2859.50 A
2859.25 A
2859.00 A
2858.75 A
2858.50 A
2858.25 A
2858.00 A
2857.75 A
2857.50 A
2857.25 A
2857.00 A
2856.75 A
2856.50 A
2856.25 A
2856.00 A
2855.75 A
2855.50 A
2855.25 A
2855.00 A
2854.75 A


17.5 Point Initial-Balance established with an "Open-Test-Drive" opening-type. Price quickly probed down 2 points to re-test the pHOD before taking off with strong upward directional-conviction. Ended up with a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day". Gotta spot those trends earlier!

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  #262 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 81 - Contract Rollover week for the U.S. Indexes.

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.


@7:48AM CST - Big Gap-Up overnight, never closed. E-Mini S&Ps up 13.00 Points, VIX at 16.00.

Thursday or so I'll be switching over to the /MESU9 contract.

Feeling pretty rough this Monday morning, just going to watch the market and see if any opportunities jump out at me. 5min bars are switching back and forth between bull and bear bars several times as they develop, seeming to indicate lack of directional conviction.

Market looking a little exhausted this morning.

@11:44AM - I see what looks like a decent opportunity to go long:
1 -- Bar 38 showed some support, indicating that the pullback might be ending.
2 -- Though very choppy, the market has been sneaky long all morning.
3 -- I think there's enough room to the upside to gain a minimum of 10 ticks on the rotation back up, perhaps much more if we rally back to the 2905.00 region.

So I take the opportunity to go long 1 /MESM9 @2898.00. 16-tick stop set at 2894.00. Signal bar was bar 38.

@12:44PM - I finally get stopped-out after a couple promising moves. MFE was only about 7-ticks, market definitely wanted to auction lower before transitioning back up. I probably didn't pick the best signal, but I accomplished what I set out to do.




= Retro =
1. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being most impulsive, I'd say this was kind of a 7. I had some definite FOMO after the up/down reversal @2905.00 and I felt the next move would be to retrace back up, but I think the signals were mixed with a lot of noise today. This was some pretty advanced price-action and I just didn't have the best entry. Glad I hung on for an hour though. Looking at the 5min bar chart now it seems there was a 2nd leg to that complicated pullback that I should have thought about before entering. Just a little early.

Final Results:




Summary
=======
1. -16-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: -16-ticks

Accumulation for Week: -16-ticks




What i liked:
- Stuck to my plan. Chose what looked like a decent signal. Executed as well as I could.
- Tomorrow's another day.
- Decent start to the month so far all things considered.



What I didn't like:
- Definitely was trying to "make something happen" today.
- Feel like I have so much to prove.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Pretty tired, going to just try and get some reading in.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2) / 27 = 7.0000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16 + 16) / 9 = 15.8889 ticks
% win = (27 / 36) = 0.7500
% loss = (9 / 36) = 0.2500
current cycle expectancy = (7.0000 * 0.7500) - (15.8889 * 0.2500) = 1.2778 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.0548 ticks
avg loss = 10.2188 ticks
% win = (73 / 105) = 0.6952
% loss = (32 / 105) = 0.3048
expectancy = (10.0548 * 0.6952) - (10.2188 * 0.3048) = 3.8754 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$82.75 achieved.
-$20.00 current drawdown
36 trades of 60 entered.
I need (517.25/24) = $21.55 per trade ~ +18-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.2778 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.60

For the week I am -16-ticks.

Really struggling.

=== Homework ===

Sketched market-profile for June 10, 2019

2905.75 E
2905.50 E
2905.25 E
2905.00 EF
2904.75 EF
2904.50 EF
2904.25 EF
2904.00 EF
2903.75 EF
2903.50 EF
2903.25 EF
2903.00 EF
2902.75 EF
2902.50 EF
2902.25 EF
2902.00 EF
2901.75 EF
2901.50 EF
2901.25 EF
2901.00 EF
2900.75 DEF
2900.50 DEF
2900.25 DEF
2900.00 DEF
2899.75 DEFH
2899.50 DEFH
2899.25 CDEFH
2899.00 CDEFGH
2898.75 CDFGH
2898.50 CDFGH
2898.25 CDFGHI
2898.00 CDFGHI
2897.75 BCDGHI
2897.50 BCDGHI
2897.25 BCDGHI
2897.00 BCDGHI
2896.75 BCDGHI
2896.50 BCDGHI
2896.25 BCGHI
2896.00 BCGHI
2895.75 ABCGHIL
2895.50 ABCGHIL
2895.25 ABCIL
2895.00 ABCIKL
2894.75 ABCIKLM
2894.50 ABCIKLM
2894.25 ABCIJKLM
2894.00 ABIJKLM
2893.75 ABIJKLM
2893.50 ABIJKLM
2893.25 ABIJKLM
2893.00 ABIJKLM
2892.75 ABIJKLM
2892.50 ABIJKLM
2892.25 AJKLM
2892.00 AJKLM
2891.75 AJKLM
2891.50 AJKLM
2891.25 AJKLM
2891.00 AJKLM
2890.75 AJKLM
2890.50 AJKLM
2890.25 AJLM
2890.00 AJLM
2889.75 AJLM
2889.50 AJLM
2889.25 AJM
2889.00 AJM
2888.75 JM
2888.50 JM
2888.25 JM
2888.00 JM
2887.75 JM
2887.50 JM
2887.25 JM
2887.00 JM
2886.75 JM
2886.50 M
2886.25 M


This was a difficult market for me to trade today. It seems I wanted to go short when the market was trending up, then I wanted to go long when the market was trending back down. I need to get back to basics. I was sad that I missed that big up/down-reversal @2905. That was the best price-action opportunity I noticed all day but I was busy with work at the time. I'm certain this led to a bit of FOMO and revenge-trading with my bid to go long @2898.00, wanting the price to retrace back up to 2905, but instead, I got mired in chop that eventually led to a bit of a selloff.

I would say this was a "Neutral Extreme Low Day Masquerating as a Sneaky UpTrend Day". It was a "Neutral Day Variant" in that you can see the range-extension spilling over both sides of the IB. It was "Extreme Low" because the Other Timeframe Seller had the last work, shoving price down in the Closing-Range all the way back down below the day's open. I say it was "Masquerading as a Sneaky UpTrend Day" because A-E Periods just wouldn't quit auctioning higher. I think this was a great day to trade the open long and just hang onto the trade until the reversal mentioned earlier.

The 30min bar chart shows today as a mountain-shaped pattern, which makes sense, with the peak at 2905.75.

The Month-to-Date bar Chart shows the famous "Evening Star" pattern. I don't know if I trust these patterns but maybe I should pay a bit of attention:



My two big keys this week are letting winning trades run and coming up with multiple reasons to enter a trade.

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  #263 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622


Day 82 - Contract Rollover week for the U.S. Indexes.

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.


@7:34AM CST - Price tested YH/YL overnight and stayed within range. We've just finally broken out above the range, potentially looking at another Open Auction Out of Range opening just like yesterday. E-Mini S&Ps up 17.50 Points, VIX at 15.63.

Market looks like its trying to go up, and doing a fairly good job of doing it.

Trying to get back on track today. I think I've been doing a lot of the right things to improve, yesterday was a good week and I am about B/E I believe for the month after commissions and fees.

I guess I just have an overwhelming feeling that I have picked up a bit of knowledge through all this work and now I have a lot going on in my mind at any particular moment in the market. So I'm trying to just focus on a couple of keys:
1) Find multiple reasons to take a trade
2) Let that trade run its course. If things are choppy feel free to take a profit, but otherwise let it go run.

Looking at OAOOR opening, could mean big moves later in the day, however each step of this neutralized market has been battling back and forth between OTF buyer/seller it seems.

Opening Bell: Well that all went out the window rather quickly, get set for ANOTHER ADORABLE MES SH-MACKDOWN:



@8:31AM CST - I jump in with the momentum long @2909.50
@8:37AM - I am stopped-out for a 16-tick loss. Really would have liked to grab those 6-8-ticks when I had the chance. Got knocked the fluff out by that big bear trend bar




Then I have some catching up to do:

@8:40AM - I go long @2903.00
@8:47AM - I close out @2905.50 for a +10-tick gain.

@8:51AM - I go long @2904.00
@8:56AM - I close out @2905.25 for a +5-tick gain.

@8:59AM - I go long @2904.00
@9:00AM - I close out @2905.00 for a +4-tick gain.

All caught up, time to reset and get back to the plan.

@9:15AM - I go long @2899.50
@9:22AM - I close out @2901.00 for a +6-tick gain.

Ok breathe, we're all caught up, after commissions & fees I might be down $2.00. Not bad, just settle down, get back to work, and wait for opportunities to make themselves apparent like the original plan stated.



Got caught up on work, come back to an interesting sawtooth pattern:




Bulls are busting through that wall ! Oh yeah!




@12:55PM - I go long @2887.50, risking ideal trade-location in order to verify that the bulls were in force and could bust through the confluence of pHOD, pCLOSE, and ONL. They did it, so I jump in long.
@1:05PM - As much as I want to go for a runner we are in a pretty hotly-contested market, I close out @2890.50, happy to walk away with a +12-tick gain. There were a few more ticks sitting there but I'm trying to get better at trailing far enough away from the current price to help these trades run better. I'm happy with this.

= Retro =
Happy with my consistency at coming back from disappointing losses, small steps forward.

Final Results:




Summary
=======
1. -16-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +10-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
3. + 6-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
4. + 4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
5. + 6-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
6. +12-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: +22-ticks

Accumulation for Week: +6-ticks




What i liked:
- Continuation of last week's lesson about being able to come back from a loss, reset, and continue making good trades towards profitability. This was really just mental discipline.
- live-trading is improving noticeably, I've gained a bit of consistency.



What I didn't like:
- Still losing some discipline in the scrum, but somehow this seems to not be hurting too much, I'm avoiding revenge-trading out of anger, I'm just not fully gathering my thoughts before each trade when I'm in comeback mode. Some of that might be due to the frantic pace of the Initial-Balance development.
- Expectancy really getting pummeled still. Could have used an 8-tick stop on all of my trades today. But getting closer to 1R with a 16-tick stop.
- Weird feeling that expectancy is going down while my live-trading is the best is improving.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep going, focus on my couple of keys, be focused and make good trades.
- Read more.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 12) / 32 = 7.0938 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16 + 16 + 16) / 10 = 15.9000 ticks
% win = (32 / 42) = 0.7619
% loss = (10 / 42) = 0.2381
current cycle expectancy = (7.0938 * 0.7619) - (15.9000 * 0.2381) = 1.6190 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 9.8974 ticks
avg loss = 10.3939 ticks
% win = (78 / 111) = 0.7027
% loss = (33 / 111) = 0.2973
expectancy = (9.8974 * 0.7027) - (10.3939 * 0.2973) = 3.8648 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$110.25 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
42 trades of 60 entered.
I need (489.75/18) = $27.21 per trade ~ +22-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.6190 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.02

For the week I am +6-ticks.

Really struggling and trading pretty well at the same time.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 11, 2019

2911.50 A
2911.25 A
2911.00 A
2910.75 A
2910.50 A
2910.25 A
2910.00 A
2909.75 A
2909.50 A
2909.25 A
2909.00 A
2908.75 A
2908.50 A
2908.25 A
2908.00 A
2907.75 A
2907.50 A
2907.25 A
2907.00 A
2906.75 A
2906.50 A
2906.25 A
2906.00 A
2905.75 A
2905.50 AB
2905.25 AB
2905.00 AB
2904.75 AB
2904.50 AB
2904.25 AB
2904.00 AB
2903.75 AB
2903.50 AB
2903.25 ABC
2903.00 ABC
2902.75 ABC
2902.50 ABC
2902.25 ABC
2902.00 ABC
2901.75 ABC
2901.50 ABC
2901.25 ABC
2901.00 ABC
2900.75 ABC
2900.50 ABC
2900.25 BC
2900.00 BC
2899.75 BC
2899.50 BC
2899.25 BC
2899.00 BC
2898.75 BC
2898.50 BC
2898.25 BC
2898.00 BC
2897.75 BC
2897.50 BC
2897.25 BCD
2897.00 BCD
2896.75 CD
2896.50 CD
2896.25 CD
2896.00 CD
2895.75 CD
2895.50 CD
2895.25 CD
2895.00 CD
2894.75 CD
2894.50 CDE
2894.25 CDE
2894.00 CDE
2893.75 CDE
2893.50 CDE
2893.25 CDE
2893.00 CDE
2892.75 CDE
2892.50 CE
2892.25 CE
2892.00 CEJ
2891.75 CEJ
2891.50 CEJ
2891.25 CEJ
2891.00 CEJ
2890.75 EJ
2890.50 EJ
2890.25 EJ
2890.00 EJ
2889.75 EFJ
2889.50 EFJ
2889.25 EFIJ
2889.00 EFIJK
2888.75 EFIJK
2888.50 EFIJKM
2888.25 EFIKM
2888.00 EFIKM
2887.75 FIKM
2887.50 FIKM
2887.25 FIKM
2887.00 FIKM
2886.75 FIKM
2886.50 FIKM
2886.25 FGIKLM
2886.00 FGIKLM
2885.75 FGIKLM
2885.50 FGIKLM
2885.25 FGIKLM
2885.00 FGIKLM
2884.75 FGHIKLM
2884.50 FGHIKLM
2884.25 FGHIKLM
2884.00 FGHIKLM
2883.75 FGHIKLM
2883.50 FGHIKL
2883.25 FGHIKL
2883.00 FGHIKL
2882.75 FGHIKL
2882.50 FGHIKL
2882.25 GHIKL
2882.00 GHIL
2881.75 GHIL
2881.50 GHIL
2881.25 GHIL
2881.00 GHIL
2880.75 GHI
2880.50 GH
2880.25 GH
2880.00 GH
2879.75 GH
2879.50 GH
2879.25 GH


The A Period established the high extreme of the day, and the Initial-Balance had a width of 14.5 Points. A-G brackets really had all the hallmarks of a classic bearish trend day or multi-distribution trend day hiding under all the oscillation. Other than the single-print selling tail from the Opening Bell, all other single-prints were retraced as price kept auctioning back and forth in an interesting sawtooth pattern on the 5min bar chart. The other timeframe buyer finally stepped up in H period to drive price back up, thereafter price auctioned around the lower value area established later in the trading session.

This market-profile has a pretty neat shape, I think the theme this week is a hotly-contested market between the other timeframe buyers and sellers, as evidenced by the good amount of volume, and so we're not really able to have one timeframe drive price and control the market, because both sides are pressing, so we're getting these sorts of "hybrid profiles".

They have been very challenging to trade.

I guess this technically would be a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day" under the original Steidlmayer guidelines, but I would like to capture the complexity for futures reference and call this a "Early-Bear-Trending Transition into Normal Variation of a Hotly-Contested Day"

Here is the 5min bar chart for reference:


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  #264 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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snax View Post

progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$110.25 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
42 trades of 60 entered.
I need (489.75/18) = $27.21 per trade ~ +22-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.6190 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.02

For the week I am +6-ticks.

Really struggling and trading pretty well at the same time.

That $110.25 is definitely something to be proud of! Being able to cover your costs and then some in this business (commissions, platform costs, data feed, etc.) is a sign of competence. It isn't all that easy to even be break-even, assuming active trading. You're doing very well in my eyes.

Keep it up snax!

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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Zachary Standley View Post
That $110.25 is definitely something to be proud of! Being able to cover your costs and then some in this business (commissions, platform costs, data feed, etc.) is a sign of competence. It isn't all that easy to even be break-even, assuming active trading. You're doing very well in my eyes.

Keep it up snax!

Hey Thanks for the kind words Zachary,

I don't deduct commissions & fees from that total just for simplicity, so I'm really just breakeven or at a bit of a loss, I need to do the math. But I still view it as a definite improvement.

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snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Day 83 - Contract Rollover week for the U.S. Indexes.

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.


Very neat-looking market-profile yesterday. Value-Area was roughly @2882-2886 according to market-profile, not sure about volume-profile.

@8:28AM CST - Volume @263K, E-Mini S&Ps down 3.00 Points, VIX @16.21.

Today I had another self-sabotaging day. Essentially, my main problem is that once I get into a trade, I can't let it run, I have to lock in a small profit for fear of getting stopped-out.

@8:45AM - I see that price has tested the 2890 region twice and failed, so I enter a short trade @2887.00.
@8:50AM - I close out @2885.25 for a +7-tick gain. Of course I should have held it, this would have been a beautiful trade, I wouldn't have even had to manage it very well to make my best live trade ever.

I need to focus on this problem more closely.

Shout out and thanks to @MiniP who suggested I make a spreadsheet with "ecm" and fill it out every 15 minutes ( E = emotional state C= cognitive state M= market state). He credited another person with the idea, so to whomever 'P is referring to, thank you as well. Tomorrow the /ESU9/MESU9 should be rolling out so its a good time to make a clean break and fix this behavior!

= Retro =
Really Happy with this month overall, I'm making a good run, its time to fix my trade-management.

Final Results:



Summary
=======
1. + 7-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. -16-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
3. + 7-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: -2-ticks

Accumulation for Week: +4-ticks




What i liked:
- Getting more and more comfortable with my control of my account at a high-level. I've been in the hunt for a profitable month of June so far, I'm only really down commissions and fees, but I NEED to figure out how I'm going to let winning trades run.



What I didn't like:
- I need to get to the root of the problem of why I can't hold onto a trade. Its self-sabotaging at this point. I went and made a great entry and then I couldn't let it run.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Begin implementing the ECM spreadsheet
- Overall direction is very good though, remaining pretty steady so continue finding ways to stay in the hunt for a profitable June by keeping focused on those few small keys: Good entries, letting trades run their course.
- Read more tonight.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 7 + 7) / 34 = 7.0882 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16 + 16 + 16 + 16) / 11 = 15.9091 ticks
% win = (34 / 45) = 0.7556
% loss = (11 / 45) = 0.2444
current cycle expectancy = (7.0882 * 0.7556) - (15.9091 * 0.2444) = 1.4677 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 9.8250 ticks
avg loss = 10.5588 ticks
% win = (80 / 114) = 0.7018
% loss = (34 / 114) = 0.2982
expectancy = (9.8250 * 0.7018) - (10.5588 * 0.2982) = 3.7466 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$107.75 achieved.
-$2.50 current drawdown
45 trades of 60 entered.
I need (492.25/15) = $32.82 per trade ~ +27-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.4677 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.83

For the week I am +4-ticks.

Really struggling, I've identified the need to do additional tracking of my anxiety once trades are on, I am making good entries, and I've been aware of this self-sabotaging behavior for some time and it needs fixing now.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 12, 2019

2889.75 A
2889.50 A
2889.25 A
2889.00 A
2888.75 A
2888.50 A
2888.25 A
2888.00 A
2887.75 A
2887.50 A
2887.25 A
2887.00 AB
2886.75 AB
2886.50 AB
2886.25 AB
2886.00 AB
2885.75 ABC
2885.50 ABC
2885.25 ABC
2885.00 ABC
2884.75 ABC
2884.50 ABC
2884.25 ABC
2884.00 ABC
2883.75 ABC
2883.50 ABC
2883.25 ABC
2883.00 ABCG
2882.75 ABCGHK
2882.50 ABCEGHK
2882.25 ABCDEGHK
2882.00 ABCDEGHKL
2881.75 ABCDEGHKL
2881.50 ABCDEGHIJKLM
2881.25 ABCDEGHIJKLM
2881.00 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2880.75 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2880.50 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2880.25 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2880.00 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2879.75 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2879.50 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2879.25 BCDEFGHIJKLM
2879.00 BCDEFGIJKM
2878.75 CDEFGIJKM
2878.50 CDEFIJKM
2878.25 CEFJKM
2878.00 CEFJKM
2877.75 CEFJKM
2877.50 CEFJM
2877.25 EFJ
2877.00 EF
2876.75 EF
2876.50 EF
2876.25 EF
2876.00 EF
2875.75 EF
2875.50 EF
2875.25 F


Very Compact "Normal Variation of a Normal Day". Definitely a lack of directional conviction with just enough range-extension by the bears to keep things interesting. I think the bulls and bears are cooling off a bit after the more heated days we've had recently. I've noticed the dynamic of the last few days leading to some weirder market-profile shapes which I find pretty interesting. I'd like to see the volume-profile for comparison.

Here is the 5min bar chart to compare:


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  #267 (permalink)
 wjbitner 
Cedar Park Texas USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, IB
Trading: NQ, CL, GC. YM
Posts: 29 since Jul 2016
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 15

Hi Snax!

I total agree with Zachary Standley , you appear to be doing a great job. I can tell you a few things I've
tried to help with the anxiety while a trade is on. These may or may not work for you!

1. Don't watch the trade. (set a profit target with a limit)
Work on a journal about trading or some other activity (watch another market like Crude or Gold or bonds)
2. Set a timer and only check the trade every 5 minutes (or some time that makes sense to you) and then go
away again. Set an indicator, such as a line crossing to be alerted when the trade reaches a certain level
above or below your entry. Sitting on your hands (which IS required) is easier when you aren't watching the
paint dry.. lol

3. Trade 2 contracts.. This doubles your risk, but allows you to be 'curious' about how far the market could go.
In effect, this makes 2 systems. The first does as you are doing now. (maybe set your reward to be
nearly equivalent of the risk).. When the first contract comes off, move your stop to break even. Now
you can be totally curious about how far the market and put your limit for the second contract at this
point. (you won't lose money because your stop is at break even..) If you are still having anxiety, then
I'm guessing your ego is involved, lol (that is you may think that being 'right' is associated with profit).
I can assure you the market does whatever it wants according the the biggest majority at that point of time
regardless of how much planning and effort and back-testing went into that trade. That's why the real magic
is keeping your losses small, rewards bigger and keep trying..

Have fun!
Bill

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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
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wjbitner View Post
Hi Snax!

I total agree with Zachary Standley , you appear to be doing a great job. I can tell you a few things I've
tried to help with the anxiety while a trade is on. These may or may not work for you!

1. Don't watch the trade. (set a profit target with a limit)
Work on a journal about trading or some other activity (watch another market like Crude or Gold or bonds)
2. Set a timer and only check the trade every 5 minutes (or some time that makes sense to you) and then go
away again. Set an indicator, such as a line crossing to be alerted when the trade reaches a certain level
above or below your entry. Sitting on your hands (which IS required) is easier when you aren't watching the
paint dry.. lol

3. Trade 2 contracts.. This doubles your risk, but allows you to be 'curious' about how far the market could go.
In effect, this makes 2 systems. The first does as you are doing now. (maybe set your reward to be
nearly equivalent of the risk).. When the first contract comes off, move your stop to break even. Now
you can be totally curious about how far the market and put your limit for the second contract at this
point. (you won't lose money because your stop is at break even..) If you are still having anxiety, then
I'm guessing your ego is involved, lol (that is you may think that being 'right' is associated with profit).
I can assure you the market does whatever it wants according the the biggest majority at that point of time
regardless of how much planning and effort and back-testing went into that trade. That's why the real magic
is keeping your losses small, rewards bigger and keep trying..

Have fun!
Bill

Thank you @wjbitner! These are terrific keys!

1-2. Definitely, I think one of the biggest self-inflicted wounds I am committing right now is quite simple: its hearing the the little chime indicating my trade has been filled, after which i start watching price begin to dance around between my stop-loss and my basis. Its never dancing around 3-4 points above my basis, LOLOL. So after 10 minutes of that I'm so grateful for anything that will cover my commissions and fees, Ha! I go in every morning ready to let these trades run, only to find the next trade wants to do the stop-loss dance for a longer amount of time than I expected. I think you raise an excellent point here and I will make a serious effort to implement your suggestion.

3. Its funny you mention this, its been on my radar! I've actually been thinking of trying FuturesTrader71's strategy of the 3 contracts, but the 2 you mentioned seems like a more logical step. I have to get comfortable with the amount of risk but the E-Micros are great instruments for trying out these kinds of things! I'll try to put on one of these positions tomorrow or this week if possible!

Thanks for the great post. Cheers!

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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: MES
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Day 84 - Contract Rollover week for the U.S. Indexes.

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

I thought about it and decided that, in addition to holding trades longer, I will allow myself to indulge in these shorter scalps if the opportunity calls for it, since that only makes sense for the real world market. I will use the price-action to dictate. I want to make note however that the minimum scalp I should be looking for is +8-ticks, and I need to call it out ahead of time in keeping with having multiple reasons to enter a trade. I have adjusted my keys accordingly:

Two Keys:
1 - Have multiple reasons to take a trade.
2 - Once in a trade, let it run its course, appropriate for the current market conditions.

***

@7:46AM CST - Still don't fully understand what caused all the market moves overnight, I'll probably find out later. E-Mini S&Ps up 7.75 Points, VIX at 15.89, Volume at 275K.

We are currently trading above yesterday's range, and well above yesterday's value-area.

I have started an ECM spreadsheet per MiniP's recommendation and I like it already. I am noticing how happy, alert and focused I am. Excited to get back to trading today after watching some of last night's market fireworks from the sidelines since I just can't get myself to enter a trade in the evening.

@8:35AM CST - I watch as price is probing down a bit but not really getting anywhere, so I set a stop-buy @2892.00, just high enough to indicate that the market wishes to attempt to auction higher while developing the initial-balance. The IB is very volatile though, so I will be happy with the minimum of 8-ticks.
@8:38AM - I feel comfortable taking 8-ticks since the price-action indicates that this was not an "Open-Test-Drive" or at least not a very convincing one, we are just auctioning in a lackadaisical fashion. I close out @2894.00 for a +8-tick gain.

Missed an opportunity @8:45AM, just wasn't ready. NOTE: in hindsight this wasn't a bad thing!

@8:55AM - I am ready to take a short here after the previous two bear trend bars, so I enter 1-tick below the close of the previous bar but the price is auctioning away from my stop-sell working-order, so I cancel.

Note to self: You don't need to try and trade every bar.

@9:27AM - Sat out of a trade I wanted to take but the price-action was right! Nice bull trend bar jutting up just above pHOD, didn't take the trade for fear of regressing back into yesterday's range.

IB finished 11.25 Points wide.

@9:56AM - Even with great price-action setup bars, the market is just too contested to rely on strong directional moves, we are in a bracketed market, so I will most likely sit out for now and try to learn something. My guess is that we'll have a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day" with range-extension to the downside, my guess is that the low will be in yesterday's value-area of 2879.00-2882.00. We'll see.

@11:11AM - We are looking at a trio of nice bull trend bars on the 30min bar chart. Definitely looking like a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day". If bulls come out to play and bust through the ONH then most likely we'll achieve a "Neutral Day" but either way I feel the trading opportunities will take some finesse.

Around noon/H Period I did a mental trade of a short @2893.50, sensing perhaps an exhausion bar as a signal, and just to practice letting a trade run mentally. It is not just the real trades that struggle, it was exhausing, plus I chose a notoriously dull time of day to attempt this experiment. An 8-tick stop would have stopped me out on the dot before reversing back down (right on my hypthetical stop), but a 16-tick stop would have been alright. The Maximum Favorable Excursion through the first half-hour was 8 ticks on the dot. Those runners sure are elusive on a day like today. As H period drew to a close I realized that this "mental" trade encompassed the entire range of this particular half-hour auction, my mental 8-tick stop the high, my minimum 8-tick profit-target the low. Interesting! Maybe this is the current Harmonic-Rotation, 4 Points. 30min bar formed a Doji Bar.

Volume has been steady and on target for the day.

= Retro =
Very good day for learning. I think I understood a small bit of what the market was doing today, even though it didn't lead to big profits.

Here is the ECM spreadsheet I put together for today:



Final Results:




Summary
=======
1. +8-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: +8-ticks

Accumulation for Week: +12-ticks




What i liked:
- Traded intelligently, recognizing that opportunities were going to be more compact for today's market behavior. Every day is a new story and its always best to be open-minded to what that story is and how it evolves.
- I think this is the first day where I actually read the unfolding market-profile very well, though it kind of messed with my head a little because I realized, now that I could anticipate a "Normal Variation" day, I don't yet have much advanced knowledge of how to captialize on that knowledge to trade a "Normal Variation" day so I simply watched. I knew it would probably auction around the developing value-area at the lower end of the range but the threat of a breakout into a "Neutral Day" kept me sitting on hands. It would have to break out above ONH in order to transform into any sort of a "Neutral Day" variant. So what is more likely, a continued auction around the developing value-area, or a bullish-surge of over 10 Points up and through the pHOD and the ONH?
I guess this is how we formulate our probabilities for our trades as we gain experience.
- Excited to execute my new guidelines, day one was a small success.
- ECM spreadsheet adds a nice addition to the game. I can begin to correlate cognitive and emotional states with trading performance linked to given market environments.



What I didn't like:
- Felt a little too clueless for how positive I felt.
- Need to dig into the internals of a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day" pattern so I can take more advantage of them, as they are very common.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Look for one or two opportunities, then go have lunch with a friend.
- Study "Normal Variation" days transforming into "Neutral Days"



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 7 + 7 + 8) / 35 = 7.1143 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16 + 16 + 16 + 16) / 11 = 15.9091 ticks
% win = (35 / 46) = 0.7609
% loss = (11 / 46) = 0.2391
current cycle expectancy = (7.1143 * 0.7609) - (15.9091 * 0.2391) = 1.6094 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 9.8025 ticks
avg loss = 10.5588 ticks
% win = (81 / 115) = 0.7043
% loss = (34 / 115) = 0.2957
expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$117.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
46 trades of 60 entered.
I need (482.25/14) = $34.44 per trade ~ +28-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.6094 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.01

For the week I am +12-ticks.



=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 13, 2019

2896.50 A
2896.25 A
2896.00 A
2895.75 A
2895.50 AH
2895.25 AH
2895.00 ABH
2894.75 ABH
2894.50 ABH
2894.25 ABHM
2894.00 ABHM
2893.75 ABGHM
2893.50 ABGHIM
2893.25 ABGHIM
2893.00 ABCGHIM
2892.75 ABCGHIM
2892.50 ABCGHIJM
2892.25 ABCGHIJM
2892.00 ABCGHIJM
2891.75 ABCFGHIJM
2891.50 ABCFGHIJM
2891.25 ABCFGIJM
2891.00 ABCFGIJM
2890.75 ABCFGIJKM
2890.50 ABCFGIJKM
2890.25 ABCEFGIJKM
2890.00 ABCEFGJKM
2889.75 ABCEFGJKM
2889.50 ABCEFGJKM
2889.25 ABCEFGJKM
2889.00 ABCEFGJKLM
2888.75 ABCDEFGJKLM
2888.50 ABCDEFGJKLM
2888.25 ABCDEFGJKLM
2888.00 ABCDEFGJKLM
2887.75 BCDEFGJKLM
2887.50 BCDEFGJKLM
2887.25 BCDEFGJKLM
2887.00 BCDEFGJKLM
2886.75 BCDEGJKLM
2886.50 BCDEGKLM
2886.25 BCDEKLM
2886.00 BCDKLM
2885.75 BCDKLM
2885.50 BCDLM
2885.25 BDLM
2885.00 DLM
2884.75 DLM
2884.50 DLM
2884.25 DL
2884.00 DL
2883.75 DL
2883.50 DL
2883.25 DL
2883.00 DL
2882.75 D


"Normal-Variation of a Normal Day - with Mid-day surge and rapid Closing Range"
Only a slight bit of range-extension in D period followed by a retrace in L Period.

TODO.

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snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622


Day 85 - Contract Rollover week for the U.S. Indexes.

<stickies>
REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

Two Keys:
1 - Have multiple reasons to take a trade.
2 - Once in a trade, let it run its course, appropriate for the current market conditions.

***

No trades today. Only had the morning to trade and I had a difficult time identifying any opportunities so I wrapped up early and headed out to lunch with a friend.

= Retro =
This week felt similar to previous weeks, I feel I'm gaining a bit of consistency. Next goal is to begin eating into my deficit, pac-man style.

There was no ECM spreadsheet today:


Final Results:
[no trades]


Summary
=======
no trades
=======
Daily Final: +-

Accumulation for Week: +12-ticks




What i liked:
- Made a tiny bit more progress this week



What I didn't like:
-


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Read



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 7 + 7 + 8) / 35 = 7.1143 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 24 + 16 + 16 + 16 + 16) / 11 = 15.9091 ticks
% win = (35 / 46) = 0.7609
% loss = (11 / 46) = 0.2391
current cycle expectancy = (7.1143 * 0.7609) - (15.9091 * 0.2391) = 1.6094 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 9.8025 ticks
avg loss = 10.5588 ticks
% win = (81 / 115) = 0.7043
% loss = (34 / 115) = 0.2957
expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$117.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
46 trades of 60 entered.
I need (482.25/14) = $34.44 per trade ~ +28-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.6094 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.01

For the week I finished +12-ticks.



=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 14, 2019

2899.75 M
2899.50 M
2899.25 M
2899.00 M
2898.75 LM
2898.50 LM
2898.25 LM
2898.00 LM
2897.75 LM
2897.50 LM
2897.25 LM
2897.00 LM
2896.75 LM
2896.50 LM
2896.25 LM
2896.00 LM
2895.75 LM
2895.50 LM
2895.25 LM
2895.00 LM
2894.75 LM
2894.50 LM
2894.25 LM
2894.00 LM
2893.75 ALM
2893.50 ALM
2893.25 ALM
2893.00 ACELM
2892.75 ACEKLM
2892.50 ACEJKLM
2892.25 ACDEJKLM
2892.00 ACDEJKLM
2891.75 ACDEJK
2891.50 ACDEJK
2891.25 ACDEJK
2891.00 ACDEJ
2890.75 ACDEHJ
2890.50 ABCDEGHJ
2890.25 ABCDEGHJ
2890.00 ABCDEGHIJ
2889.75 ABCDEGHIJ
2889.50 ABCDEFGHIJ
2889.25 ABCDEFGHIJ
2889.00 ABCDEFGHIJ
2888.75 ABCDEFGHIJ
2888.50 ABCDFGIJ
2888.25 ABCDFIJ
2888.00 ABCDFIJ
2887.75 ABCDFIJ
2887.50 ABCDFI
2887.25 ABCDF
2887.00 ABCDF
2886.75 ABCDF
2886.50 ABCD
2886.25 ABCD
2886.00 ABCD
2885.75 ABD
2885.50 ABD
2885.25 ABD
2885.00 ABD
2884.75 ABD
2884.50 AD
2884.25 A


"Normal Variation of a Normal Day". This is the closest I've seen a day almost achieve a "Normal Day". The first half-hour auction of the day established a 9.5 Point wide initial-balance that held (no range-extension) all the way until L period, where we finally had range-extension to the upside with the Closing-Range M period adding an exclamation point. A part of me can't help but think this was just a "TGIF!"-skewed rally to finish the week. Interesting that we came within 1 tick of 2900.00. Must be a lot of resting liquidity at that Big Round Number of 2900.00. Before I left yesterday I thought we would achieve a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day" but with value accumulating below the Initial-Balance. I forgot about "TGIF!-skew" Ha!

EDIT: I think I should make a correction. Since the Initial Balance was only 9.5 Points wide, I think had the IB held, this would be more like a "Non-Trend Day", which to me is a more compact version of a normal day with absolutely no directional conviction. Normal Days tend to have much wider IBs according to Dalton, et al.

This has the look of a "Weak-High" and that we might be pushing above 2900.00 early next week.

== Price Action ==
Here is my best attempt at a first "Brooksian" Price-Action research session. I tried to indicate areas where the price-action looked good but would have trapped me because I think this is important to label the mistakes as well as the good ones. I welcome any commentary from more experienced price-action traders in the community that can help me learn.



Here is the un-edited 5min bar chart for comparison:




After I did that, I took a look at what Brooks posted, I'm not sure if I should re-post the image here (Even though I'm giving him all the credit!) so here it is.

Number of opportunities between Al Brooks and I:
Brooks : 19
snax : 30

Number of matches: 14

NOTES: bars 48 and 49 were not very good opportunities now that I see how Brooks refers to that region as part of the ledge encompassing bars 44-50.

I'm a little over-exhuberrant in my identifying trading opportunities

Next up, I have to do some reading on trendlines and trend channel lines in order to understand what Brooks is talking about, they seem to be a fundamental
piece of research that I've never paid attention to until now.

~ Wyckoff Research ~
TODO.

Other:
Investigate Gold futures

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Last Updated on June 26, 2019


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