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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #251 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 74

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

Yesterday had a very narrow trading range of 26.5 points in the ES/MES. This morning we are within that range up 10 points testing pHOD. Volume seems pretty similar to yesterday and the VIX is at 17.29. We're basically looking like we're going to open at exactly the same spot as yesterday's open, so its like a market-reset.

@8:33AM CST - I see an opportinity to go long @2794.00, because:

-- 2792.75 was pHOD and is now behaving as support, and
-- 8:30 was a very keen bull trend bar that gave up very little crossing the pHOD. I believe there is a tempo aspect to this as well, I trade a lot during IB so I am used to the surges and things for the most part and this one felt right.

This one didn't seem to fight me that much, though it did struggle to cross the 2796.00 level and I really want to get the day started on a positive note after yesterday, so @8:47AM I close out @2796.00 for a +8-tick gain.

@9:10AM - Big bear trend bar all the way down to the pHOD becomes my signal bar and I lean into pHOD as support once again, going long @2793.75 because:
-- my bear trend signal bar bounced right off pHOD like it was titanium.

This trade felt like it had slightly less conviction in its upward price-action and it fought me a little bit more. Once again, I have to let go of my big-money price-target of 2799 and close out once more @2796.00 for another +8-tick gain. It was actually 9-ticks but I noticed yesterday that I'd missed 1-tick of slippage in a losing trade so I'm evening up by giving up 1-tick from my expectancy.

I'm happy with this, we're ranging above pHOD and I am enjoying these trades for the most part, though this one took a bite out of my endurance so I'm going to work and keep an eye on the market.

Now I need to reset, not get crazy, and remember the note I made at the top about incrementally building my account.

Market-sentiment may be changing:




After having a moment to contemplate, I think it is more important for me to keep doing what I am doing which is focusing on the correct trade-locations and entry-points...the trade-management and bigger gains from holding onto trades will come with time and experience. I will keep shooting for the bigger trades but won't be ashamed to keep closing out with 8-tick winners. Must turn the losing-valve off before I start worrying about pulling in big hauls. It was a firehose before, I think that's changing slowly.

@10:11AM - Rotating around midpoint of pHOD/pCLOSE. Will we be bracketed by pHOD/pClose?

@12:30PM - We have been! But we are right back at the midpoint. In hindsight, the 5min bar at 11:50AM was fairly telling. Good opportunity.
My strategy now is to trade outside-in, maybe leaning against pClose to enter a long position if we drop far enough and depending on how price-action is at that level. Didn't have the appetite for it and have been busy with work. Keeping an eye out for opportunities though.



Final Results:




= Retro =
1. Nice little trade that didn't fight me too much. Struggled a bit to get the gains I was hoping for, so rather than be stubborn I closed out for a pretty easy +8-tick gain.
2. Another nice trade though this one was more of a trouble-maker. This may be a way to gauge changing dynamic market sentiment or it may more than likely just pure random noise in the market, but I happily closed this one out for another +8-tick gain. It bit into my confidence a bit so I sat out for a while after. Ended up not making any more trades.





Summary
=======
1. +8-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +8-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +16-ticks




What i liked:
- Got back to my plan and was focused



What I didn't like:
- Not much to add here, things went pretty well.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan and stay focused every day.
- Slowly gain more trades in my repertoire.
- Keep reading "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Keep reading RPCBBB
- do my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 16 = 7.5625 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (16 / 22) = 0.7273
% loss = (6 / 22) = 0.2727
current cycle expectancy = (7.5625 * 0.7273) - (14.5000 * 0.2727) = 1.5461 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.7419 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (62 / 91) = 0.6813
% loss = (29 / 91) = 0.3187
expectancy = (10.7419 * 0.6813) - (9.3448 * 0.3187) = 4.3403 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$46.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
22 trades of 60 entered.
I need (553.50/38) = $14.57 per trade ~ +12-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.5461 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.93

For the week I am +8-ticks.

Much better result today, I am still really struggling since going live to keep up with my goal, but that's ok consistency is what I need right now.

=== HOMEWORK ===

sketched market-profile for May 30, 2019

2799.00 C
2798.75 C
2798.50 C
2798.25 C
2798.00 C
2797.75 ABC
2797.50 ABC
2797.25 ABC
2797.00 ABC
2796.75 ABC
2796.50 ABC
2796.25 ABC
2796.00 ABC
2795.75 ABC
2795.50 ABC
2795.25 ABC
2795.00 ABC
2794.75 ABC
2794.50 ABC
2794.25 ABC
2794.00 ABC
2793.75 ABCG
2793.50 ABCG
2793.25 ABCG
2793.00 ACG
2792.75 ACG
2792.50 ACGH
2792.25 ACGH
2792.00 ACGH
2791.75 ACGHM
2791.50 ACGHM
2791.25 ACDGHM
2791.00 ACDGHM
2790.75 ACDGHM
2790.50 ACDGHM
2790.25 ACDGHM
2790.00 ACDGHM
2789.75 ACDGHM
2789.50 ACDGHM
2789.25 ACDGHM
2789.00 ACDEGHM
2788.75 ACDEGHM
2788.50 ACDEFGHJM
2788.25 ACDEFGHJM
2788.00 ACDEFGHIJM
2787.75 CDEFGHIJM
2787.50 CDEFGHIJM
2787.25 CDEFGHIJLM
2787.00 CDEFGHIJLM
2786.75 CDEFGHIJLM
2786.50 DEFGHIJLM
2786.25 DEFGIJLM
2786.00 DEFGIJLM
2785.75 DEFGIJLM
2785.50 DEFGIJKLM
2785.25 DEFGIJKLM
2785.00 DEFGIJKLM
2784.75 DEFGIJKLM
2784.50 DEFGIJKLM
2784.25 DEFIJKLM
2784.00 EFIJKLM
2783.75 EFIJKLM
2783.50 EIJKLM
2783.25 EIJKLM
2783.00 EJKLM
2782.75 EJKL
2782.50 EJKL
2782.25 EJKL
2782.00 JKL
2781.75 JKL
2781.50 JKL
2781.25 KL
2781.00 KL
2780.75 KL
2780.50 KL
2780.25 KL
2780.00 KL
2779.75 KL
2779.50 KL
2779.25 KL
2779.00 KL
2778.75 KL
2778.50 KL
2778.25 KL
2778.00 KL
2777.75 KL
2777.50 K
2777.25 K
2777.00 K
2776.75 K
2776.50 K


Another "Neutral-Center" Day like yesterday. Like yesterday it seemed to be a bit of a bearish trend day but price kept retracing back to the middle of the day's trading range. When you look at the 30min bar chart it seems pretty apparent that there were great opportunities all over the place. Breaking that down into 5min bars it becomes much more difficult. I think I need to spend some time understanding why that was.

Price-Action: Up/Down or Down/Up Reversal Bars
some weird description of selling on failed double-bottom or buying failed double-top?

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  #252 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 75 - Crawling Chaos!

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

Did a ton of (non-trading) work this week so today I am going to try and trade a bit more. I always look forward to Fridays like this.

E-Mini S&Ps down 31.25 and VIX higher at 19.18. Volume way up, Good times.

@8:05AM CST - I almost take a short after a double-top on a fibonacci-extension but I back out of it, a little too fancy of an opening trade for me, brings to mind videos of fancy skateboard tricks gone awry, so I just stay patient and watch.




Opening-Bell: We are looking heavily-bracketed today. I'm guessing we're going to be trading outside-in if at all because there's probably loads of bulls and bears resting orders on either side of this channel we're currently in. S&P 500 is both very cheap and also very uncertain. We're also coming up on 2750.00 which is a "nice round number" and if we break that I may have to go short, but if we're still bracketed then I would be toast selling at the low of the trading range. I don't quite have enough on my mind this morning. Just going to watch the price-action for clues.

This IB is like watching treasuries this morning. But on the bright side, I guess if the IB remains this narrow, that means less stability and more chance of a big move later traditionally, but i don't know in this environment today.

MES already at 140K volume.

Since just starting to read Brooks very recently, I'd say the biggest positive value I've gotten so far is the material gives me something to focus on in the moment which seems to be reducing my impulsiveness, so that's a good thing.

Ok IB established a weak range of 11 points, expecting this thing to get smashed through kool-aid man style by some institution at some point. Switching to glance at 30min bars shows a lot of rejection below us, indicating that maybe there's a good amount of support below but it is also looking a bit like barbed-wire so who knows. Prices are cheap. I'd be more comfortable letting price re-test below and confirm a long entry but there's always confirmation risk vs price risk.

@9:50AM - I am waiting for price to hit at least 2765.00 after a strong bull trend bar before going short. We make it to 2764.00 and then reverse, so I may have missed my opportunity. I feel funny calling it a reversal, because there isn't much to reverse, but that was the outside-in trade I was looking for. That would have been good for about 4 choppy points. Missed again @2765.25. Same result, 4-point targets are ok, just need to time the entry. Don't go chasing now.

@10:14AM - Another push upward, moving my limit-order up to 2766.50 to absorb the momentum, I still believe this is an outside-in trade short for 4-points.

Nope, price-action doesn't look right.

@10:25AM - Glad I didn't step out in front of that. I've missed two opportunities and avoided 1 steamroller. Had I adapted my strategy to think of leaning against 2670.00 instead I would have been more successful from a trade-location standpoint. This also sort of correlates with the fact that most of my trades really fight me, with price oscillating between my basis and my stop for a long time, maybe I'm just a little early a lot of times. Trying to work on that slowly.

@11:30AM - Price-action seems to sputter a bit in its trek downward so I grab a chance to go long @2760.00, because
-- We're very bracketed, trading in a tight-range and the bears seem to have traveled down quite a bit un-contested.
-- 2760.00 looks like a reasonable pullback bottom on the 30min bars.
-- 2760.00 is a big round number.

I'm really only shooting for 10-ticks but by @11:37 I've had enough fun and I close out @ 2761.00 for a +4-tick gain. Trade looks unsound in the chart after the fact so I'm happy to get out a couple ticks ahead.

@12.52PM - I think I see a signal to go short after a fizzling-out of a brief bull trend bacause:
-- Price-action has been shy of 2765.00 and we have a decent bear trend bar, but I didn't wait to see it close and jumped in early, I'm seeing such a pattern with jumping in early and trades fighting me.

...So I jump in short 1 MESM9 contract @2761.75. Instantly regret it, classic stubborn fight of a trade, I am sure I'm going to get stopped-out about three separate times before finally it dips below my basis and I just close out for another +4-tick gain. Bad risk/reward. Actually made the move I wanted if I would have been able to hang in there. I'm closed out @1:02PM at 2760.75 for a +4-tick gain.

And I'm out for the week! Last trade shows my nerves are fraying a bit so going out on a high-note. That was a character-builder. Going to finish trading homework for the day as the market closes then go have a drink or two! TGIF!

Bless this Mess




Final Results:




= Retro =
Trades 1 & 2: I'm at a bit of a paradox, because I think the most important thing for me right now is to keep finding good trade-locations based on a mix of homework and focus on the present market, and then executing on entering those trades with patience and good signals. But I just feel I'm always just a bit early, and each trade fights like it really wants to stop me out badly. So I close out with minimal gain only to find price satisfied that I closed and then makes the move I wanted. I guess I'm right where I probably should be for this stage of my career.


Summary
=======
1. +4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +8-ticks

Final Results for Week of May 27-31: +16-ticks




What i liked:
- Kept fighting to find trades in an awkward market and came out with decent entries. Missed a few opportunties but the ensuing market behavior showed my feel for the price-action wasn't far off.
- I'm really starting to like the challenge of bracketed markets. Trend days only happen so often, and I want to figure these oscillations out.



What I didn't like:
- Jumping in a little too early still.
- Little confidence once the trades were entered. Feelings of regret.
- I have a great talent for missing the substantial moves or jumping out of trades that were positioned for them.
- I think all these problems can be attributed to "live-trading skittishness" which will go away with time and experience.
- But like Cory said, "All Fears Are The Same Fear". I agree.


Goals for Monday:
- Find a place to put all these random stats in your head. One txt file, put it up on github so its safe and update that instead of 600 different notes. Eventually find a proper solution as stats tracking increases.
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up. Didn't do the best job of that today.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan and stay focused every day.
- Slowly gain more trades in my repertoire.
- Keep reading "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Keep reading RPCBBB
- do my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4) / 18 = 7.1667 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (18 / 24) = 0.7500
% loss = (6 / 24) = 0.2500
current cycle expectancy = (7.1667 * 0.7500) - (14.5000 * 0.2500) = 1.7500 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.5313 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (64 / 93) = 0.6882
% loss = (29 / 93) = 0.3118
expectancy = (10.5313 * 0.6882) - (9.3448 * 0.3118) = 4.3339 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$56.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
24 trades of 60 entered.
I need (543.50/36) = $15.10 per trade ~ +13-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.7500 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.19

For the week I finished +16-ticks.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly.

P.S. Are we getting into position for a big day next week?

==== HOMEWORK ====

sketched market-profile for May 31, 2019

2769.50 D
2769.25 DE
2769.00 DE
2768.75 DE
2768.50 DE
2768.25 DE
2768.00 DE
2767.75 DE
2767.50 DE
2767.25 DE
2767.00 DE
2766.75 DE
2766.50 DE
2766.25 DE
2766.00 DEF
2765.75 DEF
2765.50 DEF
2765.25 DEF
2765.00 DEF
2764.75 DEFI
2764.50 DEFIJ
2764.25 CDEFIJ
2764.00 CDEFIJ
2763.75 CDEFIJ
2763.50 CDEFIJ
2763.25 CDEFHIJ
2763.00 CDEFHIJ
2762.75 CDFHIJ
2762.50 CDFHIJ
2762.25 CDFHIJ
2762.00 ACDFGHIJ
2761.75 ACDFGHIJ
2761.50 ACDFGHIJK
2761.25 ACDFGHIJK
2761.00 ACDFGHIJK
2760.75 ACDFGHIJK
2760.50 ACDFGHJK
2760.25 ACDFGHJK
2760.00 ACFGHJK
2759.75 ACFGHJK
2759.50 ACFGHJK
2759.25 ABCGHJK
2759.00 ABCGHJKL
2758.75 ABCGHJKL
2758.50 ABCGHJKL
2758.25 ABCGHJKL
2758.00 ABCGHJKL
2757.75 ABCGHJKL
2757.50 ABCGHJKL
2757.25 ABCGHJKL
2757.00 ABCGJKL
2756.75 ABCGJKL
2756.50 ABGJKLM
2756.25 ABJKLM
2756.00 ABJKLM
2755.75 ABJKLM
2755.50 ABJKLM
2755.25 ABJKLM
2755.00 ABJKLM
2754.75 ABJKLM
2754.50 ABJKLM
2754.25 ABKLM
2754.00 ABKLM
2753.75 ABKLM
2753.50 ABKLM
2753.25 AKLM
2753.00 AKLM
2752.75 AKLM
2752.50 AKLM
2752.25 AKLM
2752.00 AKLM
2751.75 ALM
2751.50 AM
2751.25 AM
2751.00 AM
2750.75 M
2750.50 M



"Normal-Variation of an Abnormal Day" or "Lovecraftian-Neutral Day" or "Crawling-Chaos Day" - Notice distinctive alien-slug pattern. Hard to get comfortable in these conditions but I liked the challenge. The potential for a "Normal Day" in the Stiedlmeyer sense was ruled out early by the very narrow initial-balance. There was directional conviction at times but it was hard to recognize on 5min bars. 30min bars show it a little more clearly. We crawled upward in C and D periods for some good range-extension, followed by E, F, and G brackets wiping out all those gains. Again, great opportunities if spotted. We pretty much alternated half-hour auction rotations after that.

I am noticing that on trading days that look weird and hard to fathom, if I pan out to 30min bars it starts to make a lot more sense.

On 30min bar chart: Heavy resistance from buyers early on rejecting price below 2757, followed by nice bull trend ending in a double-top transitioning into a 13-point rotation downward, then up, even a nice doji pause bar for I period, then down for a big bear trend bar in J. Looks much more tradeable at this timeframe, but I am also benefitting from hindsight and 30min bars are SLOW. Due to the huge gap between 30min bars and 5min bars I don't think there is much sense in disassembling the 30min bars to see if I can recognize the patterns in 5min bars as there is a combinatorial explosion of ways you could assemble 5min bars to look like the same 30min bars.

It is just plain awkward at this point and the only thing that's going to make the trading opportunities more apparent is time and experience. I just don't have the vision yet to see which way the market is trying to go on a day when it doesn't seem to be doing a good job of getting there.

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  #253 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622



snax View Post
Day 75 - Crawling Chaos!

It is just plain awkward at this point and the only thing that's going to make the trading opportunities more apparent is time and experience. I just don't have the vision yet to see which way the market is trying to go on a day when it doesn't seem to be doing a good job of getting there.

Here is Brooks' post-session analysis from his blog that I am comparing against my own research, I love this because it addresses the problem I specified above on a chart from a session I am familiar with. I also love it because in general I have a pretty optimistic outlook on any particular trading day that opportunities are there, even if I am having trouble spotting them:


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  #254 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 76

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

@7:17AM CST - E-Mini S&Ps down 7.25 points, VIX at 18.78.
Overnight we had a gap-down from 2752.50, opening @2741.00, 11.50-point Gap-down which we haven't filled. Volume seems pretty good, /ESM9 at 316K. We are very sideways right now, going to watch for a while.

We are lower than Friday's range currently, so Friday's bearish closing-range held through. Market is a bit out of balance it seems.

Mental-Note, if /MES price seems off compared to the closing price, ie. seems down by 3.75 but its supposedly down 3.50, its because it tracks the /ES and goes by the closing price of the /ES regardless of where /MES closed previous session.

7:57AM - Came within 3-ticks of pLOD. Price acting like it wants to fill the gap finally, in slow-motion. Will we just be testing up before selling more on the open?

@8:40AM - Possible short opportunity. Working order short @2758.50. Cancelled because I missed out.
@8:46AM - I try again @2754.25 but cancel since I'm chasing momentum now.

@9:05AM - sat on my hands as we got down to 2838.00. Too much uncertainty.
This is a place where I think having access to a DOM might help but I don't really know, I think it would help to see how many resting orders were sitting below to get a feel for where the bottom is.

@9:17AM - getting roped into a meeting at 9:30. Maybe things will calm down a bit after that.

@10:03AM - Glancing back at the chart, I think I see a Bull Flag! First time noticing one of these in the wild, all this research seems to be paying off. I don't tend to jump into things I learned from research/homework the first time I encounter them in the live market so today I'm going to watch this "Bull Flag" and see if price behaves as one would expect here.


Final Results:
[No Trades]


= Retro =
Missed two great opportunities early on. One I entered a trade but was late and the other I was just too uncertain to enter as price plunged down to 2738.00 and stopped. As Dalton says in "Mind over Markets", "the best trades often fly in the face of the most recent market activity".

I feel like this would have been a day where, in the past, I would have just jumped in to make trades impulsively. I'm stopping that behavior more and more.

Over all feeling good about my perception of the market today, I'm noticing market phenomena and it is behaving as I would expect based on research, it is just very mechanical at this point as all new learned behavior is. I can feel the knob continue to slowly turn in the right direction.

Summary
=======
No Trades.
=======
Final: +0-ticks




What i liked:
- my read of the market seemed decent.



What I didn't like:
- couldn't get a couple orders filled.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Stick to the same plan.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4) / 18 = 7.1667 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (18 / 24) = 0.7500
% loss = (6 / 24) = 0.2500
current cycle expectancy = (7.1667 * 0.7500) - (14.5000 * 0.2500) = 1.7500 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.5313 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (64 / 93) = 0.6882
% loss = (29 / 93) = 0.3118
expectancy = (10.5313 * 0.6882) - (9.3448 * 0.3118) = 4.3339 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$56.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
24 trades of 60 entered.
I need (543.50/36) = $15.10 per trade ~ +13-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.7500 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.19

For the week I am even.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 3, 2019

2763.75 C
2763.50 C
2763.25 C
2763.00 C
2762.75 C
2762.50 C
2762.25 CD
2762.00 CD
2761.75 CD
2761.50 CD
2761.25 CD
2761.00 CD
2760.75 CD
2760.50 CD
2760.25 CD
2760.00 CD
2759.75 ACD
2759.50 ACD
2759.25 ABCD
2759.00 ABCD
2758.75 ABCD
2758.50 ABCDE
2758.25 ABCDE
2758.00 ABCDE
2757.75 ABCDE
2757.50 ABCDE
2757.25 ABCDE
2757.00 ABDE
2756.75 ABDEH
2756.50 ABDEH
2756.25 ABDEH
2756.00 ABDEH
2755.75 ABDEH
2755.50 ABDEH
2755.25 ABDEH
2755.00 ABDEH
2754.75 ABDEH
2754.50 ABDEH
2754.25 ABDEH
2754.00 ABDEH
2753.75 ABDEH
2753.50 ABDEH
2753.25 ABEH
2753.00 ABEHJ
2752.75 ABEHJ
2752.50 ABEHJ
2752.25 ABEHJ
2752.00 ABEHJ
2751.75 ABEHJ
2751.50 ABEHJ
2751.25 ABEHJ
2751.00 ABEFHJ
2750.75 ABEFHJ
2750.50 ABEFHJ
2750.25 ABEFHJK
2750.00 ABEFHJK
2749.75 ABEFHJK
2749.50 ABEFHJK
2749.25 ABEFHJK
2749.00 ABEFHIJK
2748.75 ABEFHIJK
2748.50 ABFHIJK
2748.25 ABFHIJK
2748.00 ABFHIJK
2747.75 ABFHIJK
2747.50 ABFHIJK
2747.25 ABFHIJK
2747.00 ABFHIJK
2746.75 ABFHIJKM
2746.50 ABFHIJKM
2746.25 ABFHIJKM
2746.00 ABFHIJKM
2745.75 ABFHIJKM
2745.50 ABFHIJKM
2745.25 ABFHIJKM
2745.00 ABFHIJKM
2744.75 ABFHIJKM
2744.50 ABFHIKM
2744.25 ABFHIKM
2744.00 ABFHIKM
2743.75 ABFHIKM
2743.50 ABFHIKM
2743.25 BFGHIKM
2743.00 BFGHIKM
2742.75 BFGHIKLM
2742.50 BFGHIKLM
2742.25 BFGHIKLM
2742.00 BFGHIKLM
2741.75 BFGHIKLM
2741.50 BFGHIKLM
2741.25 BFGHIKLM
2741.00 BFGHIKLM
2740.75 BFGHIKLM
2740.50 BFGHIKLM
2740.25 BFGHIKLM
2740.00 BFGHIKLM
2739.75 BFGHIKLM
2739.50 BFGHIKLM
2739.25 BFGHIKLM
2739.00 BFGHIKLM
2738.75 BFGHIKLM
2738.50 BFGHIKLM
2738.25 BFGHIKLM
2738.00 BFGHIKLM
2737.75 FGHIKLM
2737.50 FGHIKLM
2737.25 FGHIKLM
2737.00 FGHIKLM
2736.75 FGHIKLM
2736.50 FGHIKLM
2736.25 FGHIKLM
2736.00 GHIKLM
2735.75 GHIKLM
2735.50 GHIKLM
2735.25 HILM
2735.00 HILM
2734.75 ILM
2734.50 LM
2734.25 LM
2734.00 LM
2733.75 LM
2733.50 LM
2733.25 LM
2733.00 LM
2732.75 LM
2732.50 LM
2732.25 LM
2732.00 LM
2731.75 LM
2731.50 LM
2731.25 LM
2731.00 LM
2730.75 LM
2730.50 LM
2730.25 LM
2730.00 LM
2729.75 M
2729.50 M
2729.25 M
2729.00 M
2728.75 M


We had a "Neutral Center Day" today as evidenced by range-extension on both ends of the initial-balance. I think what makes Neutral Days tricky is that there is
a high amount of trade-facilitation, other timeframe buyer and seller are both very active with high volume, yet the market remains in balance, so price is auctioning back and forth without much directional conviction. Its like both sides are frustrated and want to "make something happen in the market". I definitely can relate. I mistakenly thought I saw a Bull-Flag to day in the market so I'm glad I took no action as price plunged soon after. I had some good reads too as well, just couldn't get filled or had a bit too much uncertainty.

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snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
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Day 77

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

@7:33AM CST - E-Mini S&Ps up 18.00-Points and VIX at 18.21. FOMC Chairman Powell speaks @8:55AM CST.

Really chomping at the bit to trade today after being late on a couple opportunities yesterday so I have to be extra careful today and not jump in impulsively or early which are two of my bigger flaws.

The market came all the way back up overnight to test Friday's HOD and that's where we're at for the moment. I could see an OAOOR that pushes up to @2785.00 and beyond, or just as likely we plunge back down to Friday's LOD, its that kind of market. Yesterday we had a "Neutral Center Day" which seemed like the equivalent of both the other timeframe buyer and seller trying to "make something happen" in the market, it was a wide trading range day with larger swings than the recent past behavior. I am sad I didn't take advantage of that drop to 2738.00 but I also didn't want to catch a falling knife, which is one of the reasons why trading IB edges can be so difficult. We had decent range yesterday and volume looks pretty good this morning as well.

@8:12AM - This looks like we're in what would be called a "Bull-Channel".




@Opening Bell: wow bar 2 (5min bars) probably trapped a lot of bulls who were jumping in long after that nice start.

would it be possible that institutions lure bulls by order-flow finesse into going long, (or vice-versa) then pushing down to ride their stops into areas of more liquidity? As I watch this price-action there just seems to be some kind of game-within-the-game going on here. I'm starting to think this will push lower unexpectedly. If we push down about 4-points lower I will be confident to go long I think. @2767.00 I feel like this is a bull-trap!

@9:04AM - Still undecided, I could easily see this dropping a bit, but I am still looking to go long. These are looking like pretty confident bear trend bars now.

@9:17AM - wellll, maybe we're not going any lower.

@9:25AM - Working order to go long @2775.50. Cancelled because I was a second or two late. Maybe I'm looking at day 2 of "sitting on my hands" because I can't read this price-action until its too late. That would have been a brilliant trade.




@9:40AM - I see a chance to take advantage of a fairly confident bear trend bar and go short @2776.25. THis trade fought me quite a bit. I set my stop above the signal bar but I really felt uncomfortable with that deep of a stop-loss so I eventually pushed it up to my usual 8-tick stop-loss. Price-action turned around in my favor. I had a price-target of 2772.25 but I moved it back up to 2774.25 and there I closed out for a +8-tick gain. So that was a "Van Tharp 1R" I guess, albeit a shaky one. I like the 8-ticks gained instead of 4 though. That was worth the wait. I am glad I was patient.

Also possible "Bull-Flag" forming?




And somehow I still have an appetite for more trades(!), though I am mostly concentrating on work now.

I believe that was in fact a "Bull-Flag"!




@10:21AM - looks like we're entering a trading-range.

@11:50AM - I see a chain of bull trend bars so I decide to jump in long
to take advantage of them. I enter @2791.00, but my nerves are frayed, and I lock in a 4-tick profit too soon. Just going to keep working at this until I start letting trades run. I close @2792.00 for a +4-tick gain.


Final Results:




= Retro =
Patient morning, missed an opportunity early on that would have been a nice trade, but came back.
1. Followed a nice bear trend bar that seems to have been initiating the pullback piece of a Bull-Flag with a nice short for +8-ticks. Missed the following bullish continuation up to @2784.00 because I hadn't seen a Bull-Flag in the wild that succeeded yet.
2. Followed a chain of bull trend bars to get a small gain with the trend.

Summary
=======
1. +8-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +4-tick gian; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: +12-ticks

Weekly: +12-ticks




What i liked:
- Felt the distance between acting on a signal and just jumping in impulsively. The distance is widening I feel.
- As part of this, patience played a key role. I had to wait a long time for these favorable trades.
- The knob continues to slowly turn in the right direction.



What I didn't like:
- trade-management is still hard for me, I get very nervous as soon as the trade is on. This is good, because it means I am entering decisively, but I haven't yet learned to trust that decisiveness. It will come with experience and favorable trades.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep going, I am starting to see a turnaround in my performance with a bit of consistency.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4) / 20 = 7.0500 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (20 / 26) = 0.7692
% loss = (6 / 26) = 0.2308
current cycle expectancy = (7.0500 * 0.7692) - (14.5000 * 0.2308) = 2.0760 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.3939 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (66 / 95) = 0.6947
% loss = (29 / 95) = 0.3053
expectancy = (10.3939 * 0.6947) - (9.3448 * 0.3053) = 4.3677 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$71.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
26 trades of 60 entered.
I need (528.5/34) = $15.54 per trade ~ +13-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 2.0760 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.60

For the week I am +12-ticks.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 4, 2019

2805.00 M
2804.75 M
2804.50 M
2804.25 M
2804.00 M
2803.75 M
2803.50 M
2803.25 M
2803.00 M
2802.75 M
2802.50 M
2802.25 M
2802.00 M
2801.75 M
2801.50 M
2801.25 M
2801.00 M
2800.75 M
2800.50 M
2800.25 M
2800.00 M
2799.75 M
2799.50 M
2799.25 M
2799.00 M
2798.75 M
2798.50 M
2798.25 M
2798.00 M
2797.75 M
2797.50 LM
2797.25 LM
2797.00 LM
2796.75 LM
2796.50 IJLM
2796.25 IJLM
2796.00 IJLM
2795.75 IJLM
2795.50 IJLM
2795.25 GIJLM
2795.00 GIJLM
2794.75 GIJLM
2794.50 GHIJL
2794.25 GHIJKL
2794.00 GHIJKL
2793.75 GHIJKL
2793.50 GHIJKL
2793.25 GHIJKL
2793.00 GHIJKL
2792.75 GHIJKL
2792.50 GHIJKL
2792.25 GHIJKL
2792.00 GHIJKL
2791.75 EGHIJKL
2791.50 EGHIJKL
2791.25 EGHJKL
2791.00 EGHJK
2790.75 EGHJ
2790.50 EGH
2790.25 EFGH
2790.00 EFGH
2789.75 EFGH
2789.50 EFGH
2789.25 EFGH
2789.00 DEFGH
2788.75 DEFG
2788.50 DEFG
2788.25 DEFG
2788.00 DEFG
2787.75 DEFG
2787.50 DEFG
2787.25 DEFG
2787.00 DEFG
2786.75 DEFG
2786.50 DEFG
2786.25 DEFG
2786.00 DEFG
2785.75 DFG
2785.50 DFG
2785.25 DFG
2785.00 DFG
2784.75 DG
2784.50 D
2784.25 D
2784.00 D
2783.75 D
2783.50 D
2783.25 D
2783.00 D
2782.75 D
2782.50 D
2782.25 D
2782.00 D
2781.75 D
2781.50 D
2781.25 D
2781.00 D
2780.75 D
2780.50 BCD
2780.25 BCD
2780.00 BCD
2779.75 BCD
2779.50 BCD
2779.25 BCD
2779.00 BCD
2778.75 BCD
2778.50 BCD
2778.25 BCD
2778.00 BCD
2777.75 BCD
2777.50 BCD
2777.25 BCD
2777.00 BC
2776.75 BC
2776.50 BC
2776.25 BC
2776.00 BC
2775.75 BC
2775.50 BC
2775.25 BC
2775.00 BC
2774.75 BC
2774.50 BC
2774.25 ABC
2774.00 ABC
2773.75 ABC
2773.50 ABC
2773.25 ABC
2773.00 ABC
2772.75 ABC
2772.50 ABC
2772.25 ABC
2772.00 AB
2771.75 AB
2771.50 AB
2771.25 AB
2771.00 AB
2770.75 AB
2770.50 AB
2770.25 AB
2770.00 AB
2769.75 AB
2769.50 AB
2769.25 AB
2769.00 AB
2768.75 AB
2768.50 AB
2768.25 AB
2768.00 AB
2767.75 AB
2767.50 AB
2767.25 AB
2767.00 AB
2766.75 AB
2766.50 AB
2766.25 AB
2766.00 AB
2765.75 AB
2765.50 AB
2765.25 AB
2765.00 AB
2764.75 AB
2764.50 A
2764.25 A
2764.00 A



Today we had a "Double-Distribution Trend Day with Bullish Skew".

TODO: More stuff goes here >>>

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 Salao 
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Hey @snax nice day! Your consistency is awesome! I've noticed you recently switched to 5 minute bars...how's that been working for you?

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  #257 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
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Platform: Sierra Chart
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Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
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Thanks Received: 9,622


Salao View Post
Hey @snax nice day! Your consistency is awesome! I've noticed you recently switched to 5 minute bars...how's that been working for you?

Hey @Salao! I really like the 5min bars! I started with them originally in sim and then when I found FIO I started experimenting with 1min and 3min bars for a while, with mixed results. I started going back to 5min bars right before I started reading Brooks and that just gave me the excuse to use them more as he suggests. I'm learning that I like to flip to 30min bars for context throughout the day, they're pretty interesting, especially on days that don't make sense like Friday.

I even turned on the 20 bar EMA though I don't know how to filter out the globex session on my platform like brooks does, I don't think I can. It only matters the first 20 bars though, then its the same, ha. I don't really use it for anything yet but you actually gave me a clue in your journal entry tonight with that reference to the MA test on bars 37 and 38, so thank you for that, it was a good example!

I think the brooks stuff is adding some structure to my own "price-action" which has always been an evolving amateur mix of whatever looks over-bought or over-sold, now there is more reasoning behind it, but "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" is a tough read, he packs so many details in, still on Chapter 1!

As for the consistency, thanks, I'm just trying to keep myself in the hunt for ending each week with positive ticks, I am starting to trust it more, I really need to get more comfortable once the trades are on, I really don't want to keep closing out so quickly.

Glad to see you had a good day today, Both of those trades were nice!

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 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
Posts: 1,250 since Jun 2017
Thanks Given: 10,571
Thanks Received: 5,870


snax View Post
Hey @Salao! I really like the 5min bars! I started with them originally in sim and then when I found FIO I started experimenting with 1min and 3min bars for a while, with mixed results. I started going back to 5min bars right before I started reading Brooks and that just gave me the excuse to use them more as he suggests. I'm learning that I like to flip to 30min bars for context throughout the day, they're pretty interesting, especially on days that don't make sense like Friday.

I even turned on the 20 bar EMA though I don't know how to filter out the globex session on my platform like brooks does, I don't think I can. It only matters the first 20 bars though, then its the same, ha. I don't really use it for anything yet but you actually gave me a clue in your journal entry tonight with that reference to the MA test on bars 37 and 38, so thank you for that, it was a good example!

I think the brooks stuff is adding some structure to my own "price-action" which has always been an evolving amateur mix of whatever looks over-bought or over-sold, now there is more reasoning behind it, but "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" is a tough read, he packs so many details in, still on Chapter 1!

As for the consistency, thanks, I'm just trying to keep myself in the hunt for ending each week with positive ticks, I am starting to trust it more, I really need to get more comfortable once the trades are on, I really don't want to keep closing out so quickly.

Glad to see you had a good day today, Both of those trades were nice!

Thanks snax! You’re right about brooks books being dense. It’s a lot of work to internalize but it’s fun. I’m finding it helpful to reference his material while reviewing the day’s price action. I think of all the work the guy would have done to come up with that methodology and I’m amazed! The dude is a marvel.

I tried 1 minute bars briefly. But 5 minute bars seemed to be in the Goldilocks zone for intraday trading. I need to incorporate some of the snaxian method of staying in the hunt! Trade well!

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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
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Trading: MES
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Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 78

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

@7:38AM CST - E-Mini S&Ps up 7.00-Points, VIX at 17.02.

Double-Distribution Trend Day yesterday with a very bullish skew, expecting a more balanced auction today due to recovering from all that momentum we experienced yesterday.

Conditions are right for an early trade this morning as there's a little bit of movement, hard to say at the moment though.

@8:53AM - I enter a stop to buy above the current range and coax it down little by little as price drifts down toward that confluence of YH/pCLOSE/ONL ~2805. I am filled @2812.00, I set a profit-target of 2820.00, but knowing I'm in a possible volatile trading range during initial-balance development, I push my stop up to 2814.50.
@8:56AM - I am closed out for a +10-tick gain. Better, its above 8-ticks. Little by little we'll find the right balance.

@9:06AM - Price drifts back down and I recognize these price-oscillations, they are my old friends from when I first started sim-trading in September 2018, so I jump in long @2810.00. I set a profit-target of @2816.00. This time I push my stop up to trap price between @2816.00 and @2813.00.
@9:10AM - I am closed out @2813.00 for a +12-tick gain. I am happy with my execution during this initial-balance session.

Here is the "interesting price-level" AKA confluence of support @2805 I am referring to, illustrated by some different colored lines consisting of YH, ONL, CLOSE:




@9:31AM - Price has worked its way all the way down to that area of confluence, and IB development is winding down so I'm skeptical of my bullish read on the market at this point. Still, I can't help but go long @2806.25. This trade fights me, and I fear the market environment might be changing.
@9:38AM - I shove my stop up to 2807.25 first chance I get just to flatten out of this uncertain market. I am closed out for a +4-tick gain.

My nerves are shot and I've had a pretty good morning for my current experience level, so I'm going to call it a day, be happy with how I did, and keep an eye on the market throughout the day.


Stepping away, I'd say its best to sit out for now and see what develops, my bullish-leanings are called into question as I see the current 5min bar chart:





Final Results:




= Retro =
1. Felt very comfortable with this trade, timing was decent and it barely fought me.
2. Same with this trade, almost a perfect replica of the last trade.
3. Nerves fraying, this was a reach, glad I got out when I did. I expect there are plenty of great opportunities coming today but this is a good time to go out on a high-note.


Summary
=======
1. +10-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +12-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
3. + 4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Daily Final: +26-ticks

Weekly: +38-ticks




What i liked:
- Took a few steps forward this morning in my trading execution.
- Felt the distance between acting on a signal and just jumping in impulsively. The distance is widening I feel.
- As part of this, patience played a key role.
- The knob continues to slowly turn in the right direction.



What I didn't like:
- my trader stamina is weak at best, I'm pretty drained after that Initial-Balance and three trades.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep going, I am starting to see a turnaround in my performance with a bit of consistency.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4) / 23 = 7.2609 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (23 / 29) = 0.7931
% loss = (6 / 29) = 0.2069
current cycle expectancy = (7.2609 * 0.7931) - (14.5000 * 0.2069) = 2.7586 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.3188 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (69 / 98) = 0.7041
% loss = (29 / 98) = 0.2959
expectancy = (10.3188 * 0.7041) - (9.3448 * 0.2959) = 4.5000 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$104.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
29 trades of 60 entered.
I need (496.00/31) = $16.00 per trade ~ +13-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 2.7586 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $3.45

For the week I am +38-ticks.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 5, 2019

2828.00 M
2827.75 M
2827.50 M
2827.25 M
2827.00 M
2826.75 M
2826.50 M
2826.25 M
2826.00 M
2825.75 M
2825.50 JM
2825.25 JM
2825.00 JM
2824.75 JM
2824.50 IJK
2824.25 IJKM
2824.00 IJKLM
2823.75 HIJKLM
2823.50 HIJKLM
2823.25 HIJKLM
2823.00 HIJKLM
2822.75 HIJKLM
2822.50 HIJKLM
2822.25 HIJKLM
2822.00 HIJKLM
2821.75 AHIJKLM
2821.50 AHIJKLM
2821.25 AHIJKLM
2821.00 AHIJKLM
2820.75 AHIJKLM
2820.50 AGHIKLM
2820.25 AGHKLM
2820.00 AGHKLM
2819.75 AGHKLM
2819.50 AGHKLM
2819.25 AGHKM
2819.00 AGHKM
2818.75 ABFGHM
2818.50 ABFGHM
2818.25 ABFGHM
2818.00 ABFGHM
2817.75 ABFGHM
2817.50 ABFGM
2817.25 ABEFGM
2817.00 ABEFGM
2816.75 ABEFGM
2816.50 ABEFGM
2816.25 ABEFGM
2816.00 ABDEFGM
2815.75 ABDEFGM
2815.50 ABDEFGM
2815.25 ABDEFG
2815.00 ABDEFG
2814.75 ABDEFG
2814.50 ABDEFG
2814.25 ABDEFG
2814.00 ABDEFG
2813.75 ABDEFG
2813.50 ABDEFG
2813.25 ABDEFG
2813.00 ABDEFG
2812.75 ABDEFG
2812.50 ABDEFG
2812.25 ABDEF
2812.00 ABDEF
2811.75 ABDF
2811.50 ABD
2811.25 ABD
2811.00 ABD
2810.75 ABD
2810.50 ABCD
2810.25 ABCD
2810.00 ABCD
2809.75 ABCD
2809.50 ABCD
2809.25 ABCD
2809.00 ABCD
2808.75 ABCD
2808.50 BCD
2808.25 CD
2808.00 CD
2807.75 CD
2807.50 CD
2807.25 CD
2807.00 CD
2806.75 CD
2806.50 CD
2806.25 CD
2806.00 CD
2805.75 CD
2805.50 CD
2805.25 CD
2805.00 CD
2804.75 CD
2804.50 CD
2804.25 C
2804.00 C
2803.75 C
2803.50 C
2803.25 C
2803.00 C
2802.75 C
2802.50 C
2802.25 C
2802.00 C
2801.75 C
2801.50 C
2801.25 C
2801.00 C


"Neutral Extreme Up Day" - Neutral Day as evidenced by range-extension on either side of the initial-balance, the other timeframe seller was out in force in C period, with buyers stepping in to reject price as it encroached on the 2800 mark. Finally we worked our way back up to the open in H bracket and even contributed range-extension above the IB high, followed by nearly identical 30min doji bars in I and J brackets which also established range-extension on the high-side. K and L periods remained fairly neutral until finally, M period which represents the closing range, drove price around frantically, finishing up with substantial range-extension to the upside. The finish to the Neutral Day showed that the other timeframe buyer had control as the market drew to a close.

Open re-opening, we Gapped-Down substantially.

Price-Action Analysis
=============
After looking over Brooks' blog I see that my first trade location doesn't even register in his chart, and my second and third trades were taken in the opposite direction to what he suggested. Just goes to show how many opportunities we really have, I think he even says somewhere in his book that on any particular bar there are winning trades in both directions, they just rely on how they are managed. I think I have yet to align one of my trades with his charts, and it is one of the aspects of my homework I look forward to each day now, that is comparing how my trades matched up with the opportunities he listed.


MFE Analysis
========

1. Entered @2810.00 on bar 5, closed on bar 6 @2812.50 for +10-ticks. Bar 6 rose to @2816.00, followed by a bear trend bar 7 that rose higher but finished only 5 ticks above my open. Anything after was lower to the point of stopping me out. The two possibilities were:
a : optimal close bar 6 : +24-ticks
b : optimal close bar 7: +35-ticks

More realistic for me to close on bar 6 for the +24-tick gain.

I achieved (10 / 24) * 100 = 41.67% of the MFE.

2. Entered @2810.00 on bar 8, closed on bar 9 @2813.00 for +12-ticks.

MFE was an optimal close on bar 9 @2814.75 : +19-ticks.

I achieved (12 / 19) * 100 = 63.16% of the MFE

3. Entered @2806.25 on bar 13, closed on bar 14 @2807.25 for +4-ticks.

MFE was an optimal close on bar 15 @2810.50 : +17-ticks.

I achieved (4 / 17) * 100 = 23.53% of the MFE

Daily MFE%: (41.67 + 63.16 + 23.53) / 3.0 = 42.79%

Will this stuff be useful? Maybe, I think its useful to keep tabs on it.

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snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622


Day 79 - Self-Control, what's that?!?

REMEMBER: The skewed nature of trading. Good habits incrementally build your account block by block. Recklessness and going in "Hold my beer"-style will only take a fraction of that work to wipe out all those gains. There is no time for recklessness. Stay patient and stick to your plan.

@7:37AM CST - E-Mini S&Ps up 7.75 Points overnight, VIX at 16.02.

@8:41AM - I miss an opportunity to go long on bar 3 as I sit on my hands worried that its going to reverse as soon as i enter. Not a bad miss, price is very indecisive and its only the third bar of the day.

@8:51AM - I cancel a stop-buy @2832.00 because the price-action isn't right.

@9:05AM - I buy @2830.00 thinking that the low of the day was going to be @2825.00 for no good reason. This trade I would say was slightly impulsive.
@9:29AM - I am stopped-out @2824.00 for a -24-tick loss. The wide stop was to stay lower than the established low of 2925.00 which we obviously breached. This isn't even a real strategy or probabilistic advantage, what am I even doing?

@9:33AM - I see an opportunity to re-coup some losses. I go long @2825.50
@9:39AM - I close out @2827.50 for a +8-tick gain.

After this it got very messy.

Final Results:

(This provides a decent summary)




= Retro =
Felt very rundown this morning and I should start preparing for days where I feel like this. When I am feeling rundown I should make sure that I "Measure Twice, Cut Once" when I am about to enter a trade. The first trade I made today was impulsive and I hadn't found compelling reasons to enter the trade as I have been doing over the past few days this week which has led to making successful trades. Then I worked my way all the way back up just to blow it on another big MES loss. So of course the rational thing to do was take a very risky ES trade just to get 4-ticks and finish +$6.25.

Actually looking at my own writing above I can see I was like "Buy....Buy...Buy...", not the patient mind-set I've had the past three days.

Summary
=======
It was pretty much a Tire-Fire
=======
Daily Final:

Weekly: +38-ticks




What i liked:
- Made a lot of good trades to get to profitability today.



What I didn't like:
- Made a couple really bad trades in the MES to blow away some of that other hard work.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Get back to how I traded Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
- Keep going, I am starting to see a turnaround in my performance with a bit of consistency.

I don't even know for all this, I can't even...

expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 10 + 12 + 4) / 23 = 7.2609 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 14.5000 ticks
% win = (23 / 29) = 0.7931
% loss = (6 / 29) = 0.2069
current cycle expectancy = (7.2609 * 0.7931) - (14.5000 * 0.2069) = 2.7586 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.3188 ticks
avg loss = 9.3448 ticks
% win = (69 / 98) = 0.7041
% loss = (29 / 98) = 0.2959
expectancy = (10.3188 * 0.7041) - (9.3448 * 0.2959) = 4.5000 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$104.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
29 trades of 60 entered.
I need (496.00/31) = $16.00 per trade ~ +13-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 2.7586 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $3.45

For the week I am +38-ticks.

Will not meet my goal without placing trades in the /ES market, but I feel I'm doing the right thing to grow as a trader right now by sticking to the /MES and grinding out these little trades so I can learn how to win slowly.

=== Homework ===

sketched market-profile for June 6, 2019

2853.00 M
2852.75 M
2852.50 M
2852.25 M
2852.00 M
2851.75 M
2851.50 M
2851.25 M
2851.00 M
2850.75 M
2850.50 M
2850.25 M
2850.00 M
2849.75 M
2849.50 M
2849.25 M
2849.00 M
2848.75 M
2848.50 M
2848.25 LM
2848.00 LM
2847.75 LM
2847.50 LM
2847.25 LM
2847.00 LM
2846.75 LM
2846.50 LM
2846.25 LM
2846.00 LM
2845.75 LM
2845.50 LM
2845.25 LM
2845.00 LM
2844.75 LM
2844.50 LM
2844.25 LM
2844.00 KLM
2843.75 KLM
2843.50 KLM
2843.25 KLM
2843.00 KLM
2842.75 KLM
2842.50 KLM
2842.25 KL
2842.00 KL
2841.75 KL
2841.50 KL
2841.25 KL
2841.00 KL
2840.75 KL
2840.50 KL
2840.25 KL
2840.00 KL
2839.75 KL
2839.50 KL
2839.25 KL
2839.00 KL
2838.75 KL
2838.50 KL
2838.25 K
2838.00 K
2837.75 K
2837.50 K
2837.25 K
2837.00 K
2836.75 JK
2836.50 EJK
2836.25 EJK
2836.00 EJK
2835.75 DEJK
2835.50 DEJK
2835.25 DEIJK
2835.00 DEHIJK
2834.75 ADEGHIJK
2834.50 ADEGHIJK
2834.25 ADEGHIJ
2834.00 ADEGHIJ
2833.75 ADEGHIJ
2833.50 ADEGHIJ
2833.25 ACDEGHIJ
2833.00 ACDEGHIJ
2832.75 ACDEFGHJ
2832.50 ACDEFGHJ
2832.25 ACDEFGH
2832.00 ACDEFGH
2831.75 ACDEFGH
2831.50 ACDEFG
2831.25 ACDEFG
2831.00 ACDEFG
2830.75 ACDEFG
2830.50 ACDEF
2830.25 ABCDEF
2830.00 ABCDEF
2829.75 ABCDEF
2829.50 ABCDEF
2829.25 ABCDEF
2829.00 ABCDEF
2828.75 ABCDEF
2828.50 ABCDEF
2828.25 ABCDE
2828.00 ABCE
2827.75 ABCE
2827.50 ABCE
2827.25 ABCE
2827.00 ABC
2826.75 ABC
2826.50 ABC
2826.25 ABC
2826.00 ABC
2825.75 ABC
2825.50 ABC
2825.25 ABC
2825.00 ABC
2824.75 BC
2824.50 BC
2824.25 BC
2824.00 BC
2823.75 BC
2823.50 C
2823.25 C


[notes about profile]

MFE analysis tonight
[]

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Last Updated on June 26, 2019


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