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1) Overwhelming amount of information to process during any trading day. You can really only cache a small amount in your mind at once and you really should just be focused on executing your plan when trading. I have a routine now and
I keep trying to integrate little bits from my backlog of notes. Here's a small sample:
* Harmonic Rotation & the time-frame you are trading
* OpEx Price Magnets (for futures)(price where option delta and gamma are neutral, the price where large traders can optimize profit on or before option expiration)
* volatility of variance, or variance of volatility
* Begin to think about the market in terms of abstraction-layers
* More work needed on Cyclic Trading Intervals
* Gap-and-Go "Playbook"
* high kurtosis, compression, tight standard deviation, more likely to be volatile, the move is likely to be stronger, except when the population/sample-size is not large enough, ie. volume is low (this was volume-profile related)
* "balance the overnight inventory"
* should be coding more
* Decision-Trees for trading plan?
* What is the most likely type of day after experiencing a Double-Distribution Day?
* volume-profile tools needed! (investor/rt maybe)
* TT looks great but $700/month for standard? I need to get to the point where I can afford that
* Go back and look at stuff you've been doing for a while with fresh eyes.
* "BEAMS"?? (huh?)
etc.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
@7:23AM CST - Yesterday price explored downward below the previous day's value area before turning around and rallying, resulting in a double-distribution day. E-mini S&Ps up 9.25 points overnight after Apple Earnings. FOMC speaks today @2:00PM EST/1:00PM CST.
It looks like we will potentially have OAOOR, with pHOD playing a key part in the opening. We are in new territory with /ESM9 being above 2956!
@8:12AM - I also notice that we had a type of gap-up yesterday @3:30PM even though it wasn't on the re-open at 5:00PM it still has un-visited prices that we may come back to, that was started @2950.00 level.
If we revisit pClose that is a good opportunity to take a long position I think. I am looking for ~2949.50 level. Maybe I should take a couple ticks lower.
@8:26AM - we are @2954.00. I have a set-up for one scenario, pClose hit. A second scenario might be strong buying at the OB, in which case I should look for a decisive pullback to an interesting price-level and again get long. I don't think FOMC will impact my trading as I should be done before the announcement. I think there will be "Apple FOMO"-Bulls peeking in the window trying to push price higher. I am leaning bullish but must be patient.
OB coming up!
@8:40AM - Price pushed below ONL but stalled out at 2951.25. I'm going to stay patient as I'm not sure we won't come back and push to close that earlier gap.
@9:04AM - I originally wanted "2949.50" but I manage to wait long enough and open and get filled on a long position with 1 contract @2948.50. I also stayed out of the bearish laser-beam that occurred at 9:00AM sharp. I like this spot, I have a stop @2946.50, I believe I can hold this for a while as I work. Target set @2956.50 but we have lots of upside potential so I may adjust that higher and adjust my stop accordingly to lock in profits.
@9:15AM - here is how we are looking:
@9:50AM - I notice price is bracketed so I adjust my target down from 2956.50 to 2950.50 to just get out with a nice profit hopefully.
@9:55AM - I am closed out for a 16-tick gain.
I had to refresh and all my old lines were erased.
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2687.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
26 trades of 30 entered.
I need (312.50/4) = $78.13 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.1160 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $88.95 per trade. I crawled ahead with 4 trades left. I have to gain 8 more ticks to hit my bonus and attempt to hit my goal. Or I could make 8-ticks on each of my remaining 4 trades with no losing trades, or some other combination. It will be close.
2950.25 M
2950.00 M
2949.75 M
2949.50 M
2949.25 M
2949.00 M
2948.75 M
2948.50 M
2948.25 M
2948.00 M
2947.75 M
2947.50 M
2947.25 M
2947.00 JM
2946.75 JM
2946.50 IJKLM
2946.25 IJKLM
2946.00 IJKLM
2945.75 IJKLM
2945.50 IJKLM
2945.25 IJKLM
2945.00 IJKLM
2944.75 IJKLM
2944.50 IJKLM
2944.25 IJKLM
2944.00 IJKLM
2943.75 IJKLM
2943.50 IKLM
2943.25 ILM
2943.00 I
2942.75 I
2942.50 I
2942.25 HI
2942.00 HI
2941.75 AHI
2941.50 AHI
2941.25 AHI
2941.00 AGHI
2940.75 AGHI
2940.50 AFGHI
2940.25 AFGHI
2940.00 AFGHI
2939.75 ABEFGHI
2939.50 ABCEFGHI
2939.25 ABCEFGI
2939.00 ABCEFGI
2938.75 ABCEFG
2938.50 ABCEFG
2938.25 ABCEFG
2938.00 ABCEFG
2937.75 ABCEFG
2937.50 ABCEFG
2937.25 ABCEFG
2937.00 ABCEF
2936.75 ABCE
2936.50 ABCE
2936.25 ABCE
2936.00 ABCE
2935.75 ABCE
2935.50 BCE
2935.25 BCDE
2935.00 BCDE
2934.75 DE
2934.50 DE
2934.25 DE
2934.00 DE
2933.75 DE
2933.50 DE
2933.25 DE
2933.00 DE
2932.75 DE
2932.50 DE
2932.25 DE
2932.00 DE
2931.75 DE
2931.50 DE
2931.25 DE
2931.00 D
2930.75 D
2930.50 D
2930.25 D
2930.00 D
2929.75 D
2929.50 D
2929.25 D
2929.00 D
2928.75 D
2928.50 D
2928.25 D
2928.00 D
2927.75 D
2927.50 D
2927.25 D
2927.00 D
2926.75 D
2926.50 D
2926.25 D
2926.00 D
market-profile is just a way of organizing information about price and time for a particular instrument. It represents prices that were traded at specific times, ie. "time-price opportunities" or TPOs, during Regular Trading Hours. The letters 'A'-'M' represent different 30-minute trading periods beginning with 'A' at 8:30AM-9:00AM for /ES, followed by 'B' at 9:00AM-9:30AM, etc. on till 'M' representing 2:30PM-3:00PM. The first hour (very roughly, not set in stone, ie. A and B-periods) are a bit special in that they represent the Initial-Balance where the market tries to determine a sensible trading range. Those single letters at the high and low ends of the price-range indicate "range-extension", "single-print buying/selling tails" or just simply "tails". These tend to indicate price that was rejected, ie. in 'D'-period price auctioned lower and lower until buyers showed up and pushed price back up.
There i a lot of theory that goes into this, it points out "types" of trading days based on behavior like trend or neutral days for example, as well as opening-types.
It seems from what I've watched/read that volume-profile adds a great deal of context, this market-profile came out before floor traders knew what the current volume was iirc, so it is lacking some volume information that volume-profile can add very good context to. I don't have any volume-profile tooling but I'd like to get started on a platform that has volume-profile sometime soon. You can read all about market-profile in "Mind over Markets" by Dalton, that's where I (recently) started!
I find it really useful to keep tabs on recent market behavior, you can compare days to each other and see where price was accepted or rejected. It helps me keep context that otherwise would probably be lost or forgotten, kind of like how a journal helps me remember good or bad things I did.
@snax, thanks for the education! This is very helpful. I don't know if this will help me, but more knowledge is a good thing. I have added Mind Over Markets to my reading list.
Explaining it helps me understand it and identify parts where I don't know what I'm talking about.
I originally picked that book up at the library and the lightbulb went on because I finally had context on all these terms and slang I had seen thrown around the forum, and the explanations were clearer than most google searches (google can be really frustrating for trading, I don't know how many times I've googled something trading-related and wound up on a site with a guy in a suit standing in front of a picture of an eagle with gold bars in its talons or something).
Anyway I found it so useful I just bought it, and am in the process of starting over from the beginning (I was about 1/4-1/3 of the way through).
I am interested in the automated stuff you are doing too, i like programming, its just further down the road for me when I can identify how to automate what I'm seeing, quite a learning curve ahead of me!
Very active Opening-Call, I notice price breaking away at 7:14AM, then at 7:30AM we have a big spike back up. Was that some kind of short-squeeze? Bit of a missed-opportunity to come back short again.
@Opening-Bell, no idea what's going on, I am just trying to be patient. I am making mental-trades and they are turning out to be poor choices, so I am holding off from placing any real orders, pretty clueless right now. This is why I should let the opening-bell activity settle most days, I think its a combination of work-related time-constraints and the volatility making every tick look like an exciting opportunity that I find so tempting. I'm also a little foggy today so maybe the four straight cold/rainy days in Chicago are taking a toll on me.
@9:00AM - price appears to be stalling, but then it moves up some more, another reminder to be patient. I have to get to work but I can keep an eye on my plan. I was looking for a trade up/down to some of my key-levels but it just didn't materialize yet.
@9:15AM - We just hit ONH and broke through by a couple ticks.
Market is deciding what to do about ONH.
@9:27AM - we fail again above ONH and I enter a working-order short @2932.00 but price is way down already, so I'm not going to get filled. I cancel. I should try to explain what I saw since I have the time.
You could quantify what I saw as two identical attempts ~12mins apart to break above ONH (Over Night High) we failed @2932.75 twice so I saw it as an opportunity to go short because I felt like the market had decided enough is enough, buyers were leaving, and sellers were about to become dominant. What would help make this more decisive for me would probably be a DOM or something, though it just might add confusion, I don't really know.
Remember that the market doesn't HAVE TO explore prices that seem key or important.
@10:17AM - peeking at the market, looks like we might get down to the 2912 level yet.
@10:39AM - staying out of this mess.
@11:32AM - looks like price wants to walk all the way back to pLOD/ONL. I don't think my stops are wide enough for the price-action we're seeing today.
Summary
=======
0 trades
=======
Final: -
What i liked:
- Avoided trading in difficult market?
What I didn't like:
- How clueless I feel, how thin my stops are for wider ranges. I think there are trades to be made but you have to take on more risk to get more reward.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2687.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
26 trades of 30 entered.
I need (312.50/4) = $78.13 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.1160 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $88.95 per trade. I crawled ahead with 4 trades left. I have to gain 8 more ticks to hit my bonus and attempt to hit my goal. Or I could make 8-ticks on each of my remaining 4 trades with no losing trades, or some other combination. It will be close.
Notes: I think today is a day where direction would not even matter, an 8-tick stop would get hit no matter which direction you choose! Try 16-tick stops maybe?
today's market-profile:
2932.75 B
2932.50 B
2932.25 B
2932.00 B
2931.75 B
2931.50 BC
2931.25 BC
2931.00 BC
2930.75 BC
2930.50 BC
2930.25 BC
2930.00 BC
2929.75 BC
2929.50 BC
2929.25 BC
2929.00 ABC
2928.75 ABC
2928.50 ABC
2928.25 ABC
2928.00 ABC
2927.75 ABC
2927.50 ABC
2927.25 ABC
2927.00 AC
2926.75 AC
2926.50 AC
2926.25 AC
2926.00 AC
2925.75 AC
2925.50 ACD
2925.25 ACD
2925.00 ACD
2924.75 ACD
2924.50 ACD
2924.25 ACD
2924.00 ACD
2923.75 ACD
2923.50 ACD
2923.25 ACD
2923.00 ACD
2922.75 ACD
2922.50 ACD
2922.25 ACD
2922.00 ACD
2921.75 ACD
2921.50 AD
2921.25 AD
2921.00 AD
2920.75 AD
2920.50 ADJ
2920.25 ADJ
2920.00 ADJ
2919.75 ADJ
2919.50 ADIJK
2919.25 ADIJKM
2919.00 DIJKLM
2918.75 DIJKLM
2918.50 DIJKLM
2918.25 DHIJKLM
2918.00 DHIJKLM
2917.75 DHIJKLM
2917.50 DHIJKLM
2917.25 DHIJKLM
2917.00 DHIJKLM
2916.75 DHIJKLM
2916.50 DHIJKLM
2916.25 DHIJKLM
2916.00 DEHIJKLM
2915.75 DEHIJKLM
2915.50 DEHIJKLM
2915.25 DEHIJKLM
2915.00 DEHIJKLM
2914.75 DEHIJKLM
2914.50 DEHIJKLM
2914.25 DEHIJKLM
2914.00 DEHKLM
2913.75 DEGHKLM
2913.50 DEGHKLM
2913.25 DEGHKLM
2913.00 DEGHKLM
2912.75 DEGHKL
2912.50 DEGHKL
2912.25 DEGHK
2912.00 DEGHK
2911.75 DEGHK
2911.50 DEGHK
2911.25 DEGHK
2911.00 DEGHK
2910.75 DEGHK
2910.50 DEGHK
2910.25 DEGHK
2910.00 EFGHK
2909.75 EFGHK
2909.50 EFGH
2909.25 EFGH
2909.00 EFGH
2908.75 EFGH
2908.50 EFGH
2908.25 EFGH
2908.00 EFGH
2907.75 EFH
2907.50 EFH
2907.25 EFH
2907.00 EFH
2906.75 EFH
2906.50 EFH
2906.25 EF
2906.00 EF
2905.75 EF
2905.50 EF
2905.25 EF
2905.00 EF
2904.75 EF
2904.50 EF
2904.25 EF
2904.00 EF
2903.75 EF
2903.50 EF
2903.25 EF
2903.00 EF
2902.75 E
2902.50 E
2902.25 E
2902.00 E
2901.75 E
2901.50 E
2901.25 E
2901.00 E
@snax , great entry as usual. I think it is okay to keep yourself on the sidelines. Just because the market is open, does not mean you have to trade. I have heard countless stories of traders who traded their accounts to zero because they felt they had to trade, because, you know.... they are traders.
I have a Post-It note on one of my monitors: "That move wasn't my move". I'm just self-coaching myself when I, or more correctly my strategy/system, misses a beautiful move. You know the one.... you can almost reach out and grab it.
Day 56 - TGIF!!! WFH and Excited to trade today. I put together plans for my next cycle last night as well as sketched out yesterday's market-profile. The profile was kind of different than any I'd seen recently due to the volatility. It was kind of a stretched-out "neutral-volatile" day (my own phrasing).
@7:30AM CST - Non-Farm-Payroll numbers send market into a tizzy.
@7:41AM - I enter long 1 contract @2930.00, stop @2928.00. In hind-sight this would fall into the impulsive category, I would have loved to get in @2824.00 or so after the algos ore whatever pushed the market way down, that would have been fantastic trade-location.
@7:56AM - I adjust my stop up to 2932.00 to lock in 8-ticks.
@8:00AM - Price reverses and I am closed out for an 8-tick gain.
Now that was nice, I was hoping for more drive up, the MFE (maximum favorable excursion) was actually 16-ticks while the trade was open so I left some ticks out there but that's ok because I didn't want to cut a runner short.
Now it is time to reset and be patient. Get rid of bullish leanings and just be neutral and see what the market does. I am in my bonus so if I see the right opportunity I can go in with multiple contracts.
@8:35AM - Market making bullish maneuvers. Waiting for Opening Bell now. Remember there is a "Scene of the Crime" lurking below from 7:30AM, be patient!
@8:39AM - I open a long position with 1 contract @2935.50, stop @2933.50.
@8:44AM - stopped-out @2933.50 for an 8-tick loss, I just told myself to wait but I thought the market was too bullish, 9 minutes into opening-range. Good lesson that I need to beat into my head, stop being opening-bell crazy-person. Way too impulsive. Because of that trade I missed getting in @2932.00 for a long position.
@8:55AM - Initial-Balance is very narrow, only 5.25 points wide.
@9:16AM - That 2933.50 level that I got stopped-out at earlier seems like a pretty good level of support if we come back to it, we've tested below pHOD a couple times and it didn't amount to much.
@9:23AM - I am filled for 3 contracts long @2933.00, stop set at 2929.00. I don't think price will explore very far below ONH any more. There is a distinct double-bottom there @9:20-9:21AM. I need to take on more risk in order to hit my goal of $3000.00 for this cycle.
@9:37AM - I set a limit-order target for 2936.00 and I get hit, closing out 3 contracts for a 12-tick gain each, that will get me to my goal with 1 trade left. As long as I open my last trade with 1 contract and set an 8-tick stop I will maintain my goal with a loss.
I think I'll want to be long for the final trade. Waiting for a nice pullback to get my opportunity.
@9:48AM - I missed the nice push at 9:46 working-order to go long 1 contract @2936.50. Now we wait and see if we get filled.
@9:55AM - I cancel the working-order because the moment has passed. reset and be patient.
@10:02AM - this is starting to look like a trend day. we keep meandering up. waiting for a pullback still. @9:58AM was a nice opportunity to get in long in hind-sight, but I was searching for a bigger pullback.
@10:04AM - working-order to go long 1 contract @2941.00, 7-ticks below the high, with the 23.6% fibonacci-extension sitting between entry and stop.
@10:14AM - I am finally filled for 1 contract, long @2941.00, stop set @2939.00. Now I can safely let this one run, even if I get stopped-out I will hit my goal for the cycle. This seems like a trend-day so I am excited to let this develop.
@10:19AM - LOL, stopped-out in 5 minutes, oh well.
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$3037.50 achieved.
-$100.00 current drawdown
30 trades of 30 entered.
I hit my target and exceeded it by $37.50.
final expectancy for cycle was 6.3000 ticks
I was able to hit my goal. My final theoretical average based on current cycle expectancy is $78.75 per trade. My actual average was $101.25 per trade due to hitting my bonus several weeks and scaling up.
Main takeaways are that I am still impulsive and I still really only have an edge because I'm able to hold out for more ticks on many of my winners because I keep my stops so tight. This will work, but I need to continue to work on being as patient as possible. I tend to pick pretty good spots when I scale up so I should look into why that is.
I would like to get to the point where I can set arbitrary stops based on correctly identifying current market conditions but that involves many factors including properly measuring the current volatility, being able to identify the right opportunities in volatile markets, knowing when to sit out, etc.
I think this system is working, I will post rules for next cycle over the weekend.
=================================================
Sketched market-profile for today was a classic "trend"-day
2949.00 I
2948.75 I
2948.50 I
2948.25 I
2948.00 I
2947.75 IKM
2947.50 HIJKM
2947.25 HIJKM
2947.00 HIJKM
2946.75 HIJKM
2946.50 HJKM
2946.25 HJKM
2946.00 GHJKM
2945.75 GHJKLM
2945.50 GHJKLM
2945.25 FGHKLM
2945.00 FGHKLM
2944.75 FGHKLM
2944.50 FGHLM
2944.25 FGHLM
2944.00 FGHL
2943.75 FGHL
2943.50 FL
2943.25 FL
2943.00 F
2942.75 DF
2942.50 DEF
2942.25 DEF
2942.00 DEF
2941.75 DEF
2941.50 DEF
2941.25 DEF
2941.00 DEF
2940.75 DE
2940.50 DE
2940.25 DE
2940.00 DE
2939.75 DE
2939.50 CDE
2939.25 CDE
2939.00 CDE
2938.75 BCDE
2938.50 BCDE
2938.25 BCDE
2938.00 BCDE
2937.75 BCDE
2937.50 BCDE
2937.25 ABC
2937.00 ABC
2936.75 ABC
2936.50 ABC
2936.25 ABC
2936.00 ABC
2935.75 ABC
2935.50 ABC
2935.25 ABC
2935.00 ABC
2934.75 ABC
2934.50 ABC
2934.25 ABC
2934.00 ABC
2933.75 ABC
2933.50 AB
2933.25 AB
2933.00 AB
2932.75 AB
2932.50 AB
2932.25 AB
2932.00 AB
2931.75 AB
2931.50 AB
2931.25 A
Rules for next cycle. I want to honor @cory 's suggestion of placing extra importance on each individual sim trade, there are some losing sim-trades I made that I want to make up for so I am going to implement a very short live cycle followed by mandatory sim cycle, the length of which will be based on this cycle's performance. It is outlined in the additional rules below.
I am breaking out these different possible lengths of sim-cycles base on how my win% has been in my accumulated expectancy.
6-7 winning trades of 10 should be achievable.
4 or 5 winning trades understandable given different emotions of switching to live.
3 winning trades: something is off, may just be small sample-size though.
0-2 winning trades: get back to basics, something is broken.
=== cycle-000003 ===
cycle-000003
strategies: my own price-action, my interesting price-levels, market-profile
cadence: 10 trades
target goal: $500.00
failure condition: maximum drawdown -80 ticks.
size: variable (see "Bonus")
stops: 8-tick stop-loss depth
Bonus: I have the option to increase size as I see fit. I trust myself.
Katas: Be patient and stick to the damn plan that got you here.
Live or Sim: Live
Instruments: /ESM9 only.
@@@ Additional Rules: @@@
after these 10 trades are finished I must go back to sim to make up for some of the losing trades I made last cycle. * 8 or more winning trades this cycle: 6-trade sim cycle (or 1 week).
* 6-7 winning trades : 10-trade sim cycle.
* 5 winning trades : 15-trade sim cycle.
* 4 winning trades : 20-trade sim cycle.
* 3 winning trades : 30-trade sim cycle.
* 0-2 winning trades : 40-trade sim cycle. =====================
