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@7:30AM CST - Big push up from 2924.50 to 2931.25, followed by rotation.
@7:51AM we are 3.00 points up in the E-mini S&Ps and the VIX is at 13.18 again.
I missed the e-micros webinar yesterday because of work so I will have to watch it this weekend, looking forward to it.
I've hit my bonus for the second week in a row now so that gives me confidence. I may only scale up to 2 contracts if there is a particularly confident trade to enter, I like where I'm at goal-wise for the week and I don't want to have any bigger set-backs than necessary from a risk perspective.
WFH today, I need to make coffee before the OB.
@8:20AM - Looking at OAIR opening
@8:32AM - Stay patient!
I don't have any volume-profile information but it seems like we're slightly below yesterday's value area
@8:40AM - It looks like we've tested low enough, I enter a limit-order to buy 1 contract @2922.50 and I am quickly filled. I set a stop at 2920.50 and a target of 2928.50. At 8:45AM I adjust my stop up to 2924.50, price declines and I am closed out for an 8-tick gain.
I almost forgot to mention, my reasoning was partly based on recent "Initial-Balance" ranges, we'd moved ~7.5 points downward which was wide enough for this point in time based on recent market behavior to be a valid "price-exploration" combined with price-action seeming to "stall" below that 38.2% level. I often forget to write this stuff down because it happens so quickly, I will try to do a better job.
Now I need to stay patient and find a good opportunity to scale up. Same price-action, just reset button and execute after watching patiently.
choppy action!
@9:02AM - if we test down to pLOD that might be an opportunity, I don't know if we'll actually make it that far, we pinged off of 2919.25 pretty hard, that might have been a good spot, just can't tell at the moment. IB is ~10 points wide now. Has one of the day's extremes been established? Still 'B'-bracket needs to be set in stone.
@9:10AM - I think price will want to explore back over the prices that got steam-rolled through earlier at 8:37AM so I enter a long position to buy 2 contracts @2922.50 again. Same stop and target. I wanted this to be a "paws-off" trade but I can't help myself and I adjust to 2924.50 and get closed out for another 8-tick gain because the 2 contracts make it too tempting to just get out with the gains.
@9:21AM - Nothing really substantial has been established, I'm really just trading these small price-oscillations that are recurring, but now we have a stronger move up to OL. We are now re-exploring those prices that got blasted through earlier.
@9:26AM - I think OL is now a level of support so I buy 2 contracts at 2928.00. Stop set at 2926.00. Target at 2932.00. At 9:28AM I am filled with dread thinking I didn't have a good read, but we recover. I am trying to be patient and let this trade run because we have the opportunity for range-extension to the upside. This is a very "zipper"-like trade at the moment and I'm not very comfortable. @9:41AM I come within 1 tick of getting stopped-out. Momentum-based trades are harder for me than reveral-based trades.
@9:53AM - I had a chance to get out of this trade with 4-ticks but I held on. I get stopped-out at 10:04am, then my move comes of course right afterward. That was painful, getting away from the market for a bit.
In hindsight I see that I placed this trade too soon, I should have waited for a pullback instead of trying a momentum-based trade. The pullback occurred right when I got stopped-out, @2926.00 was an excellent trade-location to go long. Tough to identify at the time.
@10:58AM - price plunging, limit-order set to buy 2 contracts @2931.00 as a retracement play.
@11:03AM - I am filled for 2 contracts long @2931.00. Stop set at 2929.00. Target @2935.00. @11:16AM I adjust my target down to 2933.50 because we are really struggling. I am closed out for a 10-tick gain.
Forgot to take snapshot of my losing third trade, I do that now. Back to work, need to get away from the market for a bit, plus lunch!
I was working so I missed a good opportunity (in hind-sight) @1:14PM to go long again.
Stay patient.
due to work, I also missed out on my "TGIF-skew" trade!
What i liked:
- Most of the price-action felt right, I over-reached for the third trade is all.
- Most patient I've been these last 2 days and the results were good.
What I didn't like:
- Missed good pullback by entering third trade too early. Momentum-based trades are tricky for me, they also sacrifice good trade-location for more information, and I usually mis-read that information anyway.
Goals for Monday:
- Watch nexusfi.com E-Micro webinar
- Investigate platforms/datafeeds
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (come up with more definitive tasks for this)
- try to gather a statistic on one stat
- READ/WATCH/LEARN
- Cook great food, get outside, have a beer/wine/cocktail.
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2387.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
21 trades of 30 entered.
I need (612.50/9) = $68.06 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.9523 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $99.40 per trade. I am on track.
Thank you @Salao! I really want to test this expectancy live, but I'm pushed back 2 weeks because of the 2 losing trades I've had since cory's post! I'm watching the e-micros webinar this weekend, that is one possible alternative, besides a combine/gauntlet or just trading live as I have in the past on the /ES.
I'm glad you are finding ways to improve, I can totally relate to the pressure of having a winning trade going live. Its hard enough in sim, but in live-trading you need even more detachment emotionally because the regret of letting a possible, say, 4-tick winner go and ending with a loss can make me feel like i was too greedy, which is just not true.
I have to check your jounal again, does your risk change from trade-to-trade?
I've got to hand it to @cory for suggesting that challenge. It seems like an excellent use of SIM time and potentially very productive! I haven't come across anyone on the forum trying anything like that, granted I'm a relative newbie, and it's interesting to follow along.
Yep it does. I place my stop at a price where my trade thesis becomes invalid if my stop is hit. Sometimes it is 2 points, sometimes it 6 points. If my initial risk is too far away to trade comfortably, I'll wait for another entry. Usually I end up with larger Stops when the market is in breakout mode and is running away.
Yes, it is an excellent suggestion. I need to figure out a good/fair way to gain time back, otherwise I would never go live, there will always be losing trades.
@7:05AM CST - E-mini S&Ps down 1.25 points, VIX at 13.16.
Looking at OAIR in the upper-region of Friday's range. ~110k volume is kind of low.
@8:15AM - Re-testing pHOD, looking at a quiet open.
"Be Patient!!"
@8:40AM - Small missed opportunity during IB.
@8:46AM - Working-order to go short 1 contract @2946.50. I don't get filled. I adjust upward, then cancel. I briefly open a working-order @2946.00 to go short 1 contract a few minutes later and quickly cancel that because it feel like I'm chasing. Time to step back and re-focus patiently.
@8:56AM - waiting to see if we test high one more time, if we see rejection that could be a good sign to enter. or not. guess we'll just chop some more.
@9:07AM - I am filled to go short 1 contract @2942.75. I am interested in experimenting with "All-In/Scale-Out" but I have to stick to my "All-In/All-Out; 1 contract until bonus is met" system through the end of this cycle.
@9:12AM - I am stopped out @2944.75. Too volatile, lots of chop and I went for it, but it seemed like the right move at the time.
What i liked:
- Did lots of trading homework over the weekend.
What I didn't like:
- Maybe a little too impulsive to get a trade in before work. Not a terrible trade I don't think but its still a loss.
- I don't think there are going to be any "trading jobs/trading mentors/other-timeframe opportunities", etc. I think I will have to make it on my own. That's fine.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (come up with more definitive tasks for this)
- try to gather a statistic on one stat
- READ/WATCH/LEARN
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2287.50 achieved.
-$100.00 current drawdown
22 trades of 30 entered.
I need (712.50/8) = $89.06 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.2278 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $90.35 per trade. I am on barely track.
Thanks VM! I am ok with losses, I know they are coming, I think for me I just need to keep them from affecting my psychology on subsequent trades. Fighting the "compounding errors" phenomenon I've struggled with.
I am trying some new stats for homework tonight! I am focusing on trying to figure out how to create more sharply-defined trading plans that sort of take what I'm already doing and give me a chance to track what's more likely to happen over time. Then maybe I can practice being patient and letting my trades develop. That's the plan anyway, its going to take time and work!
@7:15AM CST - Most of the morning so far has been putting together my trading plan. Market appears to be in balance and headed for OAIR. I could see us opening around pClose, working down to pLOD, chopping and then dropping to ONL and @2934 region or working our way back up to @2944.50-2946.50.
@7:40AM - big drop downward. price-action stalls, I have a working-order to go long @2938.00 but price doesn't make it that far down, I end up cancelling.
Remembering to be patient and let the trades come as they may. /ESM9 currently down 2.25 points. VIX at 13.13.
@8:09AM - looking for a chance to get in low here and take advantage of the part of my plan that thinks we're going to test up higher upon open before dropping. This seems like it might be open-rejection-reverse coming, but more than likely it will be quite choppy since we are appearing to be in balance. But we have a very active Opening-Call, will we break out of balance and plunge?
@8:16AM - Doubt I'm going to get "the perfect setup" which reminds me I may be tricking myself into forcing something I think might happen. reset and be neutral, stick to the plan but don't try to force my ideas on the market.
@8:30 - I catch price on the upswing to go long @2937.75, quickly close out for an 8-tick gain @8:34AM. I am thinking the actual move will be downward, not sure how far we'll test up, we'll see, back to even on the week. I was thinking we would re-test up to 2943.00 potentially at least, not sure right now, glad I got out when I did.
@8:39AM - Stop-Sell hit for @2937.25. Stopped-out just as fast as I closed out the last trade. -8-ticks loss.
@8:45AM - Open short @2938.00. Stop set @2940.00, Target set for @2934.00. I'm busy with work so I will let this trade run
@10:00AM - Closed out at 2934.00 for a +16-tick gain.
Note: apologies for the pic, it was taken before I closed out and I forgot to take a good one at the end, I was busy for work and when I refreshed the simulator all my lines and stuff were gone.
Overall good trading, second trade was a hot-mess. 2934 level proved relevant, though it plunged much further before coming back.
What i liked:
- Worked on creating a more solid trading plan template with accumulated stats last night. There is no new strategy, just adding more market awareness and context. I will add more stats as I get better at doing my homework.
What I didn't like:
- second trade was poorly-timed.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (come up with more definitive tasks for this)
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2487.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
25 trades of 30 entered.
I need (512.50/5) = $102.50 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 6.7600 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $84.50 per trade. I slipped behind, I need $200.00 more this week to hit my bonus and scale up to try and hit my target, or I need a couple good trades and some 8-tick winners. It will be very close.
2950.25 M
2950.00 M
2949.75 M
2949.50 M
2949.25 M
2949.00 M
2948.75 M
2948.50 M
2948.25 M
2948.00 M
2947.75 M
2947.50 M
2947.25 M
2947.00 JM
2946.75 JM
2946.50 IJKLM
2946.25 IJKLM
2946.00 IJKLM
2945.75 IJKLM
2945.50 IJKLM
2945.25 IJKLM
2945.00 IJKLM
2944.75 IJKLM
2944.50 IJKLM
2944.25 IJKLM
2944.00 IJKLM
2943.75 IJKLM
2943.50 IKLM
2943.25 ILM
2943.00 I
2942.75 I
2942.50 I
2942.25 HI
2942.00 HI
2941.75 AHI
2941.50 AHI
2941.25 AHI
2941.00 AGHI
2940.75 AGHI
2940.50 AFGHI
2940.25 AFGHI
2940.00 AFGHI
2939.75 ABEFGHI
2939.50 ABCEFGHI
2939.25 ABCEFGI
2939.00 ABCEFGI
2938.75 ABCEFG
2938.50 ABCEFG
2938.25 ABCEFG
2938.00 ABCEFG
2937.75 ABCEFG
2937.50 ABCEFG
2937.25 ABCEFG
2937.00 ABCEF
2936.75 ABCE
2936.50 ABCE
2936.25 ABCE
2936.00 ABCE
2935.75 ABCE
2935.50 BCE
2935.25 BCDE
2935.00 BCDE
2934.75 DE
2934.50 DE
2934.25 DE
2934.00 DE
2933.75 DE
2933.50 DE
2933.25 DE
2933.00 DE
2932.75 DE
2932.50 DE
2932.25 DE
2932.00 DE
2931.75 DE
2931.50 DE
2931.25 DE
2931.00 D
2930.75 D
2930.50 D
2930.25 D
2930.00 D
2929.75 D
2929.50 D
2929.25 D
2929.00 D
2928.75 D
2928.50 D
2928.25 D
2928.00 D
2927.75 D
2927.50 D
2927.25 D
2927.00 D
2926.75 D
2926.50 D
2926.25 D
2926.00 D
