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Yeah, I've heard that one and seen others make disastrous trades first thing Monday. My partner had a strategy she only traded Tues-Thurs. That was pretty hardcore, but also short lived. Anything equity based, I would say nothing between 930 and 1000 EDT.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
But depending on the opening-type there could be good opportunities, wouldn't you miss out on trade-location for open-drive, open-test-drive opening scenarios? Not that its all or nothing, you could get in later. I do agree on the caution though, plus i have heard (and noticed) volume tends to be lower on Mondays.
I come into Mondays excited to trade and have often been guilty of what I call the Monday morning "Dog left off the leash at the Dog-Park" trading-style. Run full-speed into any possible fun opportunity you can find. I'm getting better at poise and patience though little by little
I meant to note, this is currently a low-probability trade for me. I can see this type of trading opportunity being much higher-probability for experienced traders and at some point for me too.
@7:30AM CST - We have established the ONH(OverNightHigh) of 2919.00. E-mini S&Ps up 7.50, VIX at 11.03. We opened at the exact same opening price as yesterday, 2910.25.
Currently using 5min-bars instead of the 1min-bars I've been using.
@7:35AM we surpass the ONH and I place a working-order to go long at 2919.00 thinking it has become a new level of support and that we may drive up to re-test pHOD of 2921.25. I am too deep in the queue and I don't get filled, price surges upwards and I am left behind, so I cancel the working-order
@8:24AM - Price has surged up to @2923.00. I don't think that spiky bar will hold, I enter short @2922.75 and am filled.
I set a target of 2914.75. I incrementally adjust my stop down from 2924.75 to 2920.75, then 2918.75, 2917.75, and finally @2917.25. I am closed out for a gain of 22-ticks.
@8:40AM there is kind of a pinbar stopping at 2913.00. Price breaks lower and I wonder if we will re-test ONL@2908.75. At this point we may be moving all the way down to Yesterday's Low (pLOD?).
@9:05AM we re-test Yesterday's Low. I am waiting to see if price wants to auction any lower. It doesn't appear to. I'm up a little so I decide I can risk another trade since its quiet this morning work-wise. I enter a working-order for 2906.00. I get filled about a minute later. I don't have huge plans for this reversal, just a couple points would be nice. I set a target of 2910.50 but I think that is kind of wishful-thinking.
I guess I'm still hurting from getting burned yesterday on a trade I could have closed out for a win so I just flatten at 2908.50 for a 10-tick gain. Eventually it hit my original target of 2910.50 but that's ok I'm very happy with my trades.
Very good day. I don't know how that worked out like it did, I don't feel particularly sharp or clear-headed. I managed to enter on the ends of some tails. Left plenty of money on the table but it wasn't my money to begin with so I'm ok with it. I also am noticing I didn't have time for a lot of pondering and contemplating like I sometimes do. Just sort of reacting to the market. Maybe I didn't over-think?
I would call this morning's opening an "Open-Drive". Sellers auctioned lower without finding any buyers until we hit yesterday's low. I would expect it to chop around for a while
longer and then maybe rotate up to the 2914-1917 range? I'm out for the day.
What i liked:
- Very good reads on market-behavior.
- I *think* I am seeing improvement in my understanding of different interesting price-levels
- Grabbed more of the "favorable excursions" than I normally do. I kind of forgot about yesterday's failed trade and that helped me not be fearful to wait for bigger gains today.
- Made some progress on my jupyter notebooks stat-tracking. Long way to go.
- I didn't jump into the first opportunity that I saw.
What I didn't like:
- Lots of homework I'm not getting around to. Making lots of excuses.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework
- Get a good first trade to try and hit my bonus. No Friday trading this week so let's hope for slow work and a chance to get into my bonus and scale up to 2 contracts.
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$1100.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
9 trades of 30 entered.
I need (1900.00/21) = $90.48 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 8.6672 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $108.34 per trade. I am back on track.
Thank you buddy! I see you have been doing very well too.
I think after I finish the 21 trades left in this this cycle I need to go one of three routes:
1) go back to live with the platform I've been using and figure out how to survive. (no platform/data fees currently just normal commissions etc, most reward)
2) learn a new platform and get started with the e-micros. (Probably best solution long-term, but there will be fees, ie. investor/rt $50/month to start)
3) try one of the combines. (less risk, less reward)
tastyworks supposedly has the small exchange coming which would be one option for the micro-contracts. They were pretty non-committal about the cme globex e-micros when I emailed them to ask.
sim is great for working on stuff, I feel like there's no real difference in my approach, I'm treating it seriously and the losing trades hurt, but yet somehow I'm like "that seemed too easy". I don't know I just want to grow a step further.
Combine (TopStep,etc) might be a reasonable compromise because I might be able to see if these sim results are meaningfull.
I want to push the psychological aspect a bit more, anything to be able to cross this abyss!
@7:30AM CST On The Dot - Big spike, retail sales numbers maybe? If you are an /NG trader there is Natural Gas storage news today. I have sim-traded /NG in the past and when the volume is up it is very fun and volatile, (depends on your definition of fun).
E-mini S&Ps up 5.50, VIX at 12.39. Looking at Open Auction in Range this morning for an opening. It looks like we might be opening within the value area yesterday' profile.
@8:00AM - Little Push up into the 2908.00 area, then we are sort of flitting away underneath. Tough read. I should pay more attention to overnight numbers, and if I'm looking at those then I want to see a similar trade to yesterday's opening here and drop down to where there was a good amount of overnight volume around 2894.00.
@8:24AM we are peaking above 2908.00 again. 2910.00 has been a very interesting price level for some time now in recent history. I would have to think there's a lot of resting orders in that area because the more I gain experience the more I realize traders like to be suspicious or interested at these levels.
Do I short? or is there enough volume energy to push a long trade through all that potential absorption?
@8:35AM I enter a limit-order to go short at 2908.50. Stop is set at 2910.50. I think we've tested to see if there was room to go higher and got rejected. I think short is the move here. Also found this nifty CQG tool to map out your positions, its kinda noisy though:
@8:46AM - Price-action is very nervous, I might have to think smaller scalp here. I missed opportunity to grab 7-ticks just now and at this point I'm getting a little ready to close with some kind of profit.
SO MANY PINBARS & The IB is like 6-points wide at this point, let's do price-discovery in the downward direction please. No need to wait for the IB to finish establishing itself, other-timeframe seller jump right in where r u?
@8:55AM I adjust my stop to 2906.50 to lock in 8-ticks and I breathe a sigh of relief, I was worried I would get stopped-out on my first trade on a day I can actually trade since work is very relaxed today. Now I can try and let this run.
@8:56-8:58AM I get the move I want, I get to adjust my stop safely down to 2904.50, then 2903.50, and finally 2903.00. My stop gets hit and I am closed out for a 22-tick gain, very similar to yesterday.
My next trade should be IF price hits [email protected] AND there is confirmation that price is reversing, go long for a smaller profit. I have hit my weekly bonus so I can scale to 2 contracts here.
@9:04AM I see my signal and enter a limit-order at 2900.25 to go long. I don't get filled though since there was probably a lot of orders in the queue already. I really like the CME/CQG queuing simulation in their simulator, it is pretty much harder to get filled in sim than in live-trading I'm finding! Price moves away and I cancel the order. Price didn't go that far, just like yesterday, its like groundhog's day all over again. Groundhog's day would be great for trading.
@9:17AM - Minimalist rotations. 2894.00 is still lurking in the depths, if we can breach the interesting pLOD level at 2898.50. Or are we just going to drift upward "YOLO"-style because its long-weekend for traders and they want to start hitting the bars early??? Other-timeframe computers say "We never sleep, we just cyber-bully Day-Timeframe IRL"
@9:21AM - how will price react at pLOD?
@9:37AM - I am not sure about this price-action. I am sitting on my hands for now. I really want to make a trade here, and I will kick myself if price falls at or below 2894.00, but I have to avoid trying to make something happen in the market that isn't there, we're just rotating.
@9:50AM - I think we've tested low, so as we come back up above pLOD I enter a limit-order to buy 2 contracts @2899.50. Stop is set @2897.50.
@9:57AM - I adjust my stop to 2900.50, then 2901.00, then 2901.50. I was really lucky to get this many ticks here. I am closed out for an 8-tick gain on 2 contracts.
Crazy couple of trading days, things just seem synced right now.
Market may be winding-down for the long-weekend, so no more momentum trades, ie. no "stop-buy" or "stop-sell" hoping to catch a runner. I think now any trading opportunities will be grindy range-based trades. Not great for the expectancy stats but when scaled up to two contracts a few ticks here or there could add up.
I've been switching back and forth between different 1-min, 5-min, and 10-min bars more often recently to keep tabs on the big picture. On the 10min bars you really see the big 'V' pattern emerging. I am not confident in going long for a big move here, as I already stated, I think the big moves are over. 2904.50 is an important number (ONH) so there may be an opportunity to grab a couple ticks around that level here shortly.
@10:10AM - just banged off of ONH, missed opportunity to capture a few ticks short. Must watch price-action very closely here.
So auction has rejected the ONH, we drifted back down to 2902.00, will it pull back to that grindy 2901.00 level?
@10:22AM - limit-order in to go long 2 contracts @2899.50 again. Stop again at 2897.50.
@10:26AM - quickly close out my 2 contracts at 2900.50 for a 4-tick gain.
Trading more than my usual Opening-Call/Opening-Bell timeframe is mentally-exhausting.
We're re-testing pLOD again. Pinbar sighting on 1min bars! maybe we're done testing low. Nice 5-point upward rotation! I am never ready for these, I have to start tracking these pinbars they usually seem to be good price-action indicators but I am not a "patterns" person and I haven't done any real stats on them.
@10:41AM - I am looking for a correction on that 5-point upward rotation. I go in short 2 contracts @2903.50. I get filled. Stop set at 2905.50. Price is moving adversely, stop that. I hope this isn't a "Long-Weekend YOLO Rally" I just stepped into.
@10:45AM - I am still hopeful here that I chose a good trading opportunity. Setting my target to close @2902.50 because this is a tough-spot.
@10:49AM - I am stopped out for an 8-tick loss with 2 contracts @2905.50.
What i liked:
- Felt very dialed-in on price-action and maximizing the favorable excursions.
- I feel like I'm leveling-up my trading.
- Found some new stats to track.
- I hit my weekly bonus again. Was able to get 4-ticks positive P/L from my bonus.
What I didn't like:
- This still feels like I'm just an OK "sim-trader"
- LOTS of trader homework I'm not getting around to. STILL Making lots of excuses.
- Feeling a bit overwhelmed about "Crossing the Abyss" to live-trading successfully.
Goals for LONG WEEKEND:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (I'm way behind)
- Track probability of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc trades being successful?
- pinbars: do they really work as indicators? LOL
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$1475.00 achieved.
-$200.00 current drawdown
13 trades of 30 entered.
I need (1525.00/17) = $89.71 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.9994 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $99.99 per trade. I am on track. I need to trade smart next week to avoid aggravating my -$200.00 drawdown.
p.s. price was back on its way to test 2910.00!!! I didn't think of that!
