Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

April 4th, 2019, 02:37 PM

snax

p.s. the probability of a successful outcome on any individual trade is 0.50. but with time and stats i think i could develop an edge for some of these scenarios.

As Mark Fisher points out in The Logical Trader, casinos only have about a 1% to 1.5% statistical advantage over players of blackjack. If you can get your system to a 2%-5% advantage, then you're golden if you follow your system and practice good position sizing and money management.

"If the odds are in your favor of making a profit with your trading system, then keep your trade size consistent, cut your losses short, and know that, over time, you'll be successful." The Logical Trader, p.184

Of course you need an advantage to beat the house (your broker), since they win regardless of your trading results.

~vmodus

April 4th, 2019, 03:04 PM

vmodus

As Mark Fisher points out in The Logical Trader, casinos only have about a 1% to 1.5% statistical advantage over players of blackjack. If you can get your system to a 2%-5% advantage, then you're golden if you follow your system and practice good position sizing and money management.

"If the odds are in your favor of making a profit with your trading system, then keep your trade size consistent, cut your losses short, and know that, over time, you'll be successful." The Logical Trader, p.184

Of course you need an advantage to beat the house (your broker), since they win regardless of your trading results.

~vmodus

This sounds exactly like all the expectancy and habit-forming stuff I've been reading (or watching on youtube) and trying to emulate. I'm still discovering new ways to screw up though!

April 4th, 2019, 07:20 PM

snax

Goals for tomorrow:
- I've been really time-constrained, I may look at the evening market tonight to see how the price-action is. /NQ tends to feel a little more active for this sort of trading but I'll have to stick with /ESM9 since that is the only instrument I'm trading for this cycle.

My trading time is going to be really minimized these next few days too. I've been watching the evening session a little bit. I usually do all my studying and learning at night. So I don't really like to watch the evening session too much. It becomes distracting from my valuable study time. BUT what I have noticed so far is that the evening session seems WAY less efficient. Price action principles are the same, but it just takes the market longer to get where its going. Maybe its an obvious observation but it was a big discovery for me

.

April 4th, 2019, 07:48 PM

Salao

My trading time is going to be really minimized these next few days too. I've been watching the evening session a little bit. I usually do all my studying and learning at night. So I don't really like to watch the evening session too much. It becomes distracting from my valuable study time. BUT what I have noticed so far is that the evening session seems WAY less efficient. Price action principles are the same, but it just takes the market longer to get where its going. Maybe its an obvious observation but it was a big discovery for me

.

Agreed. I am exhausted again tonight so I decided to sim-trade the evening session instead of study and let me tell you, if you are feeling like you don't have enough awkward, slow-as-molasses agonizingly frustrating action in your life, trying to sim-trade the /ES at night is 10/10 stars. I simply can't watch another minute. I couldn't even imagine trying to trade this live right now.

I have to laugh, I read an article on my phone on the way home from work about the "longest serving futures trader".

Quoting

"I told him I only had $500 to trade. He said, 'son, if you had more, you may lose it'," Stern said.

Something about that line just made me crack up. I really like the friendly characters he encountered. Its a refreshing read because futures trading was so different then. I'm sitting here cursing that all the cool trading platforms I want to try are for the wrong operating system (windows), and if I wanted to change careers and go into trading well that looks just about impossible these days, so here let me lose some more of my money before I go back to sim. Can I just be a runner???

April 4th, 2019, 11:14 PM

Code

2885.75 A
2885.50 AB
2885.25 AB
2885.00 AB
2884.75 AB
2884.50 ABM
2884.25 ABM
2884.00 ABM
2883.75 ABM
2883.50 ABM
2883.25 ABM
2883.00 ABCM
2882.75 ABCDKM
2882.50 ABCDKLM
2882.25 ABCDKLM
2882.00 ABCDKLM
2881.75 ABCDKLM
2881.50 ABCDKLM
2881.25 ABCDKLM
2881.00 ABCDEJKLM
2880.75 ABCDEJKLM
2880.50 ABCDEJKLM
2880.25 ABCDEJKLM
2880.00 ABCDEJKL
2879.75 ABCDEJKL
2879.50 ABCDEJKL
2879.25 ABCDEJKL
2879.00 ABCDEJL
2878.75 ABCDEFIJ
2878.50 ABCDEFIJ
2878.25 BCDEFIJ
2878.00 BCDEFHIJ
2877.75 BCDEFHIJ
2877.50 CDEFHIJ
2877.25 CDEFHIJ
2877.00 CDEFHIJ
2876.75 CDEFGHIJ
2876.50 CDEFGHIJ
2876.25 CDEFGHI
2876.00 CDEFGH
2875.75 CDEFGH
2875.50 CDEFGH
2875.25 CDFGH
2875.00 CDFGH
2874.75 DFGH
2874.50 DFGH
2874.25 DFGH
2874.00 DFGH
2873.75 DFG
2873.50 FG
2873.25 FG
2873.00 FG
2872.75 FG
2872.50 FG
2872.25 FG
2872.00 FG
2871.75 FG
2871.50 FG
2871.25 G
2871.00 G

Point-of-Control right back where we started from. Slightly bullish closing range. Normal-Variation Day.

April 5th, 2019, 12:08 AM

snax

Agreed. I am exhausted again tonight so I decided to sim-trade the evening session instead of study and let me tell you, if you are feeling like you don't have enough awkward, slow-as-molasses agonizingly frustrating action in your life, trying to sim-trade the /ES at night is 10/10 stars. I simply can't watch another minute. I couldn't even imagine trying to trade this live right now.

Ha! I know what you mean. Screen time the hard way.

That article was a great read btw!

April 5th, 2019, 10:28 AM

Day 37 - April 5, 2019 - cycle-000001

So my first cycle, which was sim-traded, ended very positively. I had a good expectancy and I had a couple of my biggest winning trades for 32-ticks each. I once again felt like I'd found my edge.

But since going live I'm not really feeling that edge. I still have a positive expectancy, but I feel as though I'm gambling a bit and hoping that I'm using my strategy. There's still too much "YOLO" to my strategy, and that feels like something a pro trader would have to overcome.

So I'm going to pull the circuit-breaker, put an end to cycle-000001 (such a memorable name) and start a new cycle back in the simulator.

My focus has to start with sound statistical foundations so I'm going to start using Python3, Jupyter-Notebooks, and whatever other cool stuff I can find to help me develop my strategy.

I also really should look around at platforms and other brokers. There's a lot of stuff I want to dig into like reading the DOM, all the cool volume-profile stuff I see RT71 doing in Investor/RT..I really don't ever want to purchase a windows machine, and I also don't want to spend a bunch of monthly fees, at least not until I'm earning enough to justify them. So I don't know where to go next with this. I would prefer something that runs on a mac (i'm really a linux geek but not sure I want to deal with that in my trading platform). So that's where we're at. Lost and confused!

What i liked:
-

What I didn't like:
-

Goals for tomorrow:
- start using python3/jupyter-notebooks for trading research
- track all the stats!
- read
- be open to trading new instruments

final expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (8 + 12 + 8) / 3 = 9.3333 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (3 / 5) = 0.60
% loss = (2 / 5) = 0.40
current cycle expectancy = (9.3333 * 0.60) - (8.00 * 0.40) = 2.4000 ticks

accumulated expectancy
avg win = 11.6522 ticks
avg loss = 8.00 ticks
% win = (23 / 35) = 0.6571
% loss = (12 / 35) = 0.3429
expectancy = (11.6522 * 0.6571) - (8.00 * 0.3429) = 4.9135 ticks

progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$150.00 was achieved.
there was a -$100.00 current drawdown.
5 trades of 30 were entered.
I needed (2850.00/25) = $114.00 per trade to hit my target.
final expectancy for cycle was 2.4000 ticks

RESULT: EARLY-EXIT CIRCUIT-BREAKER.

April 5th, 2019, 12:36 PM

Jupyter-Notebooks..... cool stuff. That's been on my radar for a while. Let us know how it goes.

~vmodus

April 5th, 2019, 12:51 PM

vmodus

Jupyter-Notebooks..... cool stuff. That's been on my radar for a while. Let us know how it goes.

~vmodus

My goal is to develop some success with it and then share it here with the community.

April 5th, 2019, 02:08 PM

Perhaps I pulled the plug too early, this is from last cycle from earlier in my journal after 5 trades in:

Quoting

still having trouble knowing if my signals are legit, even though the results say they are, the randomness of the market right after I enter makes me wonder.

and my results i had so far were only a touch above what I am seeing live:

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12) / 4 = 8.75 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8 ticks
% win = (4 / 5) = 0.80
% loss = (1 / 5) = 0.20
expectancy = (8.75 * 0.80) - (8 * 0.20) = 5.40 ticks
$1500 profit goal, +$337.50 achieved, $1162.50 to go.
5 trades of 30 entered, 25 trades to go.
Need an avg of $46.50/trade, about 4 ticks, current expectancy is 5.40 ticks, I am (barely) on target.

Maybe the jump from $1500 goal to $3000 goal was too big psychologically for live-trading, I will try for $3000 next on sim

Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal