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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #51 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
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Thanks, snax. It sounds like you have a good plan for developing your skills. The 30 trade cycle is the same thing we use for evaluating any new system we develop. We find 30 to be the minimum sample of trades for any system.

The two things I have had to manage are the emotions and the attachment to the money. Both will change when you transition.

1) Emotions: trust my system....I will have losing streaks. Minimize mistakes, but trust the system if the system works on paper, etc. This last month has been brutal, but the control freak in me has to sit over in the corner and not take control of my trading.

2) The Money.... be okay with losing it all. My relationship with money is complex, but I have mentally made peace with losing everything, as I have started from zero on more than one occasion in my life.

I guess it comes down to finding peace with the two items above.

~vmodus

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  #52 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
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vmodus View Post
Thanks, snax. It sounds like you have a good plan for developing your skills. The 30 trade cycle is the same thing we use for evaluating any new system we develop. We find 30 to be the minimum sample of trades for any system.


2) The Money.... be okay with losing it all.

~vmodus

1) Yeah that is straight out of the FT71 video, he actually suggests 50 but 30 minimum, I am choosing 30 for now because there are many rough edges that I can fix up, I plan on transitioning to longer cycles when there is less rough sharp edges to smooth out and my target goals are bigger

2) What do you mean by "all"? I like to have an amount of capital that I refuse to lose, then i place some capital on top of that which i am willing to lose, kind of like "just a flesh wound!" in the monty python sense. that way I will never be out of the game. I hope you stay in too!

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  #53 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
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snax View Post
2) What do you mean by "all"? I like to have an amount of capital that I refuse to lose, then i place some capital on top of that which i am willing to lose, kind of like "just a flesh wound!" in the monty python sense. that way I will never be out of the game. I hope you stay in too!

The money you're not willing to lose is the money that shouldn't be in your trading account. Think about it as starting a new business. All of your money is at risk when you start a business. No risk, no reward. Of course there is not always a reward, particularly if you don't run your business well.

I guess what I mean is that you should be okay never seeing the money in your trading account ever again. It probably sounds fatalistic, but if you have ever started a business, you would understand. I have had several businesses, some successful, some not.

Example:
I made a $48k purchase of equipment a few years ago for one of my businesses and the manufacturer became insolvent shortly after we paid for it. After their bankruptcy, I got $0 back, in other words, it was a total write off. I had to make peace with that. It is not something I'm happy about and it still frosts my shorts, but it was a risk I was willing to take.

That doesn't mean I can trade my account to zero. I have a lower limit for what I will trade my account down before I stop trading (practical considerations such as margin requirements aside). So yeah, the market can lop off an arm or two (just leave the torso and head please).

I hope that explains it.

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  #54 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Yes, I hear you. I think we are on the same page, I put myself on a pretty tight leash, perhaps too tight. I know what kind of drawdown I am used to in sim, and if I see a drawdown that is worse I know something is wrong, so I kind of build off of that theory. I don't know if that makes sense but it is a safety precaution to keep me from getting hit too badly in the market.

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  #55 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Day 24 - Chop!

@7:12AM CST we are testing the 2851.00 level. S&Ps up 10.50 already, VIX at 12.65.

Mind is swimming with dalton's mind over markets this morning. I need to go research some things that aren't very clear yet, like what exactly the author means by "other timeframe buyers/sellers" (they sound like large, influential institutional traders/firms) and when the initial balance is considered set in the modern electronic market for the products I am trading. In the book example in the beginning introduction the author uses floor traders in the 30-year treasury bond pit as the creators of the initial balance before the other-timeframe buyers/sellers emerge. I am very fascinated by this book so far, I need to re-read what I've read. I am taking it with a grain of salt, as always. I like to be reading solid definitions of concepts people talk about on this forum, rather than some of the hand-wavey stuff on other sites.

@7:36AM there are some sharp downward spikes from 2850.75 to 2848.75. At least there is some movement.

Just some harmonic rotation now. I always see these as nice little opportunities but I don't really act on them because they are not part of the core strategy under test. But they are definitely candidates for strategy-extension in later cycles.

@8:24AM CST Almost like yesterday, I see a signal just before OB, but the price-action seems to be a bit out of sync with what I was seeing yesterday, but in a manner that I can learn from potentially. I entered a stop-sell for 2848.00 but then quickly cancelled because the movement wasn't right and something is off, I think there are bulls lurking. Eerie, felt just like yesterday's environment for a moment, only bearish instead of bullish.

I am also very amped up to increase to 2 contracts today so it is a good exercise to exhibit restraint today. Waiting till Opening-Bell and all the noise settles, if nothing emerges I will stay out of the market.

Sure enough there is an upward surge now. Better sit back and see what develops.

Summary: Never really got comfortable this morning, so no trades filled, one cancelled. I saw a couple "future opportunities" for expanding my strategy in the future, perhaps. more study needed.

results:





What i liked:
- interesting market behavior
- didn't over-reach for any opportunities.
- stayed on track.


What I did poorly:
- I didn't do all the work I could have last night. I've been having good results from reviewing charts from earlier in the day while the experience was fresh in my mind. I will get back to that tonight for sure, at least 15-20 minutes if nothing else.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- read some charts.
- Finalize next 30-trade plan.
- re-read introduction to "Mind over Markets" and research the stuff that isn't clear.
- Begin investigating POC a bit more
- Find out how to be more involved in futures trading community, etc.


expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32 + 32 + 16 + 16 + 4 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 12) / 19 = 12.21 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 9 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (19 / 28) = 0.6786
% loss = (9 / 28) = 0.3214
expectancy = (12.21 * 0.6786) - (8.00 * 0.3214) = 5.7145 ticks
$1500.00 profit goal.
$2000.00 achieved.
$500.00 surplus.

28 trades of 30 entered, 2 trades to go.
current expectancy is 5.7145 ticks, I want to finish strong. Last two trades for the cycle will be scaled-up to 2 contracts per trade, worst case I get stopped-out twice and finish at 1600.00, best-case has big upside.

p.s. thank you to vmodus, massive, and all the others for sharing their knowledge this morning.

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  #56 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Day 25 - cycle-000000

I dug up an old CBOT Market Profile document last night, it adds good background to "Minds over Markets". It wasn't very clear from context in the book which ideas in the Introduction and Novice sections were Dalton's and which were from previous work, and I can now see Dalton is building off of lots of ideas from Peter Steidlmayer's market profile research. This market microstructure stuff is great, not sure if its useful for me yet, but it can't hurt to learn more about market behavior.

@7:15AM CST - S&Ps up 2.25, VIX at 13.57, up a little after yesterday's volatility. Looks like we're nearing the end of a ~5 point upward rotation. Volume looks low, I'm caught between wanting to go short here and waiting to see if it continues upward how it reacts at @2840.00. Volume picks back up, I'm going to watch carefully.

I wasn't really using volume at all so I was taking it off my charts for a while but I thought I'd put it back in to try and see if I find it useful again.

Looks like that wouldn't have been a bad trade, price dropping a little. That makes me happy, even though I missed an opportunity I think I am reading the market correctly at this moment.

@7:31AM I am seeing a pattern that keeps coming up over and over, it is hard to describe and its kind of a reach to call it a "pattern" per se, and I've searched the internet but it is nowhere to be found. This is good too, I think I'm finding my own style. I will have to come up with my own name for this pattern and study it. I am fairly confident that I will trade based off of it today.

Wondering if modern pre-market electronic trading contributes to the "Initial Balance" as described by Peter Steidlmayer.

@7:42AM I consider a bullish position with a working-order at 2837.00 but I quickly cancel.

@7:54AM I see that we are tilting to the bearish edge so I go short @2835.50 with 2 contracts. I don't get filled at first, but after about 30 seconds I am filled. I set my stop at 2837.50. (I am scaling up to 2 contracts because I've locked in my target goal for this cycle).

Price toggles down and I adjust my stop to trap a decent profit, price-action is generous, I am able to grab 8 ticks.




Price pulls back, would have potentially been a good rebound trade had I reacted quickly enough.

@8:07AM price re-visits my original entry-point. now it breaks through.

@8:10 I jump into that long position @2837.00 I was considering earlier, thinking there will be a breakout. Not so fast, I come within 2 ticks of getting stopped-out. Price auctions back and forth and I'm stopped-out at 2835.00. That was an error, I was impulsive and wanted to quickly finish my cycle with one more winning trade. Even for the day, anyway, 30-trade cycle was a success overall.




Final Results:





What i liked:
- Successful completion of my first 30-trade cycle, surpassed my target goal.
- Very nice first trade.
- Did some research last night.
- Set up most of my next 30-trade cycle.


What I did poorly:
- Impulsive second trade, just wanted to finish the last trade of my cycle and got over-eager.
- small drop in expectancy.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- read some charts.
- Finalize next 30-trade plan.
- READ.
- Find out how to be more involved in futures trading community, etc.


expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32 + 32 + 16 + 16 + 4 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 12 + 8) / 20 = 12.00 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 10 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (20 / 30) = 0.6667
% loss = (10 / 30) = 0.3333
expectancy = (12.00 * 0.6667) - (8.00 * 0.3333) = 5.334 ticks
$1500.00 profit goal.
$2000.00 achieved.
$500.00 surplus.

30 trades of 30 entered.
current expectancy is 5.334 ticks, down slightly. I successfully hit my target goal and surpassed it.
Now I want to set a more difficult challenge.

p.s. i missed all the FOMC chaos too.

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  #57 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
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snax View Post
p.s. i missed all the FOMC chaos too.

Yeah, it was (is) a wild ride. I have a feeling a lot of people felt some pain today.

Congratulations on successfully completing your 30 trade cycle!

~vmodus

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  #58 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Experience: Beginner
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Trading: MES
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Day 26


@@@@@@@@@ Next 30-trade Plan - cycle-000001 @@@@@@@@@
cycle-000001 - more strenuous test of first cycle strategy
strategies: price-action with interesting price-levels
cadence: 30 trades
target goal: $3000.00
failure condition: max drawdown -$700.00
size: 1 contract per trade
stops: 8-tick stop-loss depth
Bonus: if gains exceed $400.00 in a week, I have the option to increase size to 2 contracts per trade, as long as I keep making winning trades. If I exceed my target goal I can increase size as I see fit as long as I don't put the achievement of the target goal in jeopardy.
Kata-Haiku: ice cold detachment; now remove impulsiveness; think beyond 8-ticks.
Liveness: Live
Instruments: /ESM9 only.
starting accumulated expectancy after 30 trades: /ESM9: (12.00 * 0.6667) - (8.00 * 0.3333) - 5.334 ticks
you are not as far off as you think.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

No trading today, I chose to begin my new cycle tomorrow, but I opened up my live platform and watched here and there while busy with other things. I entered a "mental trade" this morning. I felt the initial dread and PTSD of being live. It was very real, but I also soon discovered that the world didn't end when I mentally hit "confirm", and I watched it develop into a nice little trade.

I felt some unease as price struggled a bit so I mentally closed it out at an 8-tick gain.

It eventually turned into what a beautiful gliding 20+ point monster*. In between I even saw the live chart hitting some of the interesting price levels** just like in the sim chart as I've been doing.

The world isn't going to turn and judge me when I enter the market. The market doesn't care about me. Good lesson.

Have fun and trade well.

Goals for Tomorrow:
- Read some charts.
- Read some "Mind over Markets".
- Meditate and relax.

* "failure to recognize and accept that one is in a trend day is one of the most costly mistakes a trader can make" - dalton, mind over markets
** learn about cyphers this weekend.

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  #59 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 27

7:00AM CST - price slowly undulating, we get some slow drawn out price-movement that could be an opportunity but I am going to have to stop watching the chart in a bit so probably no trading for me today. We'll see what OB has to offer and then probably stop for the day.

OB - Price managed to break above Wednesday's high, but not convinced that there's any directional conviction for now after all that flat rotation following yesterday's up-trend.

I'm a little busy today so that's it for me. I'm out.

notes: harmonic-rotation is like the inverse of a breakout, both exhibit similar behavior near the origin but when you anticiapate a breakout and the price just rotates back inward, step back and figure out if you are in harmonic-rotation, check if there is a price acting like a magic-magnet keeping the price in orbit, check how deep the ebb&flow is and adjust your levels accordingly to see how much energy the market needs to generate in order to pull away from this magic magnet or basic harmonic-rotation...after a trend day check to see if market is hitting the reset button and going back to the interesting price-levels from the day before the trend day.

What i liked:
- peace of mind
- didn't feel any impulse to trade for trading's sake

What I did poorly:
- nothing really

Goals for Tomorrow:
- continue reading
- learn about cyphers

expectancy for current cycle
avg win = 0
avg loss = 0
% win = 0
% loss = 0
current cycle expectancy = () - ()


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 12.00 ticks
avg loss = 8.00 ticks
% win = (20 / 30) = 0.6667
% loss = (10 / 30) = 0.3333
accumulated expectancy = (12.00 * 0.6667) - (8.00 * 0.3333) = 5.334 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$0.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
0 trades of 30 entered.
current expectancy for cycle is 0 ticks

...friday rally strikes again! could it manage to make it all the way up to vwap??

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 Salao 
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snax View Post
Day 27

notes: harmonic-rotation is like the inverse of a breakout, both exhibit similar behavior near the origin but when you anticiapate a breakout and the price just rotates back inward, step back and figure out if you are in harmonic-rotation, check if there is a price acting like a magic-magnet keeping the price in orbit, check how deep the ebb&flow is and adjust your levels accordingly to see how much energy the market needs to generate in order to pull away from this magic magnet or basic harmonic-rotation...after a trend day check to see if market is hitting the reset button and going back to the interesting price-levels from the day before the trend day.

I have never heard of harmonic-rotation but it sounds like a way to describe price action? As per usual, interesting stuff snax. Nice job surpassing your goal on your last cycle and trade well my friend on the next.

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Last Updated on June 26, 2019


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