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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal
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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #1 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

Due to the thoughtful advice I received over in this thread https://futures.io/emini-index-futures-trading/46191-dissecting-morning-s-bad-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-trade.html I am starting a (simulated on the cme sim.) trading journal based on my research and practice with these concepts in sim-trading.

I plan to make the first journal post tomorrow morning Feb. 14, 2019. I will plot out as much of my thoughts, preparation, and strategy as I can, and I will attempt to include detailed chart screenshots.

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  #3 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Entry 1: February 14, 2019


First journal entry, let's do this!

I have a lot of new concepts I'm working on, so I'll be focusing on a subset today to start simple and not get overwhelmed. Typically I'll go back and forth watching a few contracts but since there's so much stuff we're keeping track of that is new and unfamiliar, we'll simplify and only watch /ESH9 for today. We'll start by plotting some potentially meaningful price-levels onto the chart.

yesterday high 2,762.00
yesterday low 2,742.75

overnight high 2,763.00
overnight low 2,745.50

Bold blue lines are yesterday high/low, Bold Pink lines are overnight high/low.

/ESH9 is up about 7.5 points this morning. Seems to be hovering around 2760.00, what is the significance of that number?
quick glance at /ES historical data doesn't show much.

I'm going to add some fibonacci retracement levels to the chart:

yesterday high/low difference : 2762 - 2742.75 = 19.25 or 77 ticks

61.8% 2750.00
50% 2752.25
38.2% 2754.75
23.6% 2757.50

ok so we've plotted some points of interest and our beautiful chart now looks like this:
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.

still hovering around 2760.00, maybe just because its a big round number?

Next task, consider other market participants, where are the smart, wealthy traders lurking, what would their strategy be today?

We can consider some fundamental analysis to get a feel for what may or may not happen today to give us clues.

Hold on, Starting to drop a bit at 7:30am CST, we can see if it tests our 2754.75 line (fibonacci 38.3%). It dropped to within 1 tick of it at 2755.00. Tests it again and plunges straight through like a syringe. We've dropped from 2759.50 to 2751.50, 8 handles just like that.
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Interesting, price is hovering around our 50% fibo line, dividing yesterday's high/low in half. trending down again, feeling bearish, can it get down to test the overnight low of 2745.50? if it breaks 2750 I think I will use that as an indicator that it could grab 5 more points on its way down to 2745.50. We break through and I think I want to take advantage of the bearish momentum. I go short 1 contract at 2749.25, set a stop at 2751.25, price immediately dives. Now I'm scrambling on the clunky sim platform to trail my stop a reasonable ways behind so I don't get stopped for 1-2 tick profit, I hold back but its already down to about 2746.75 so I grab more ticks. I push down to 2747.50 and I get stopped for a profit of $87.50. I'm going to assume round-trip fees of $5.50 ($1.25 per contract per side commission, $2.36 clearing fee, $0.04 NFA fee, $0.60 transaction fee). Grand total of $82.00 profit. Not a loss, but not good enough. We left some money on the table too .

Now its testing yesterday's low and it hits.
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jumps up to 2745.50 fibo line. What are my thoughts...we're still only down less than 6 points on the morning , if this falls through it could fall hard, still feeling bearish. I already notice in platform terms that things feel awkward because I don't usually go "with the momentum" this easily. I go short at 2742.00, we easily get to 2740.00 and I just limit out because I am in unfamiliar territoy being up $187.50. 2 wins, 0 losses. Average profit of $93.75. Assuming the same $5.50 fees as before, we come away with $11.00 in fees for a grand total of +$176.50 credited to our account. I'm going to walk away with this today.

After some time goes by the chart looks like this:
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And our final stats:
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What I liked:
- Something feels different, Just having the significant price levels there as a guide helped tremendously.
- Trades felt different, I think I waited to confirm that things were moving the way I anticipated. Lately on losing trades I've planned how to get in just at the right time for a reversal hoping to "guess the top/bottom" and get the most ticks. This has back-fired on me, today felt different and I actually made a profit.

What I did poorly:
- Not enough preparation. I only just started to think about the other market participants and their strategies and I was jumping into trades based off the price-levels I drew.
- Very impulsive. The seeds of a trading strategy are here but this is just the first step, I have so far to go.
- Easily could have bit me on that second trade...after I got filled at 2742.00, my "instinct" told me the price was going to shoot back to 2744 and stop me out. Well I've been losing a lot of trades lately on "instinct" and thankfully I was wrong again, this time I won.
- I really was just trading by instinct again, just with a slightly different approach. This is still not a true strategy.

Goals for tomorrow:
- Prepare more and relax.
- Hold onto trades longer, patience would have brought in more money today, but I was so sick of losing that I grabbed what I could get.
- Push further towards strategy, move further away from instinct/reflex/implulse trading.
- technicals: research fibonacci extension.


Last edited by snax; February 14th, 2019 at 10:29 AM.
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  #4 (permalink)
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Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Day 2 - February 15, 2019

Day two!

So yesterday was day one, and I had two small winning trades and zero losing trades. While this is positive, I am still closing out trades just after they become profitable, which is leading me to having a poor risk/reward ratio.

So today I want to keep focusing on the same things as yesterday, which was marking the chart with some potential interesting price-levels:
Previous day High/Low, Overnight High/Low, and some Fibonacci retracement %'s.

But in order to work on improving my risk/reward-ratio I thought it might help to give myself an engagement tool to work with today to focus on making good trades and try and break my habit of closing out trades with only small profits. So I'm just going to add some Fibonacci extensions to experiment with.

Oh, I've fixed my price-levels too! They were off by a few cents yesterday because I didn't know how to lock in an exact price with the simulator drawing tools but I figured out how to do that this morning so we'll be a touch more accurate than we were.

In the future I might also mark one standard deviation above/below from the average daily price range over the past week. The reason for this is that the expected price range is something I feel I should have context on, and also I've heard that once a market moves beyond one standard deviation from its daily price range it tends not to have a big reversal, so I'd like to test that eventually (we'll need a big price change to see it though). Not today, but I have it in mind.

I also want to continue to try and identify what different types of market players are doing in any given market, so I'll try to identify these things as well.

Bold blue lines:
Yesterday's high: 2763.00
Yesterday's low: 2730.25

Bold pink lines:
Overnight high: 2752.75
Overnight low: 2729.00

2763.00 - 2730.25 = 32.75 or 131 ticks

Fine purple lines:
fibonacci retracements:
23.6% 2,755.271
38.2% 2,750.4895
50% 2,746.625
61.8% 2,742.7605
76.4% 2,737.979

Fine orange lines:
Fibonacci Extensions
38.2% 2,775.5105
23.6% 2,770.729

big overnight move to the upside. we're hovering right at the 23.6% fibonacci retracement of 2755.25. i've rounded these numbers from their actual computed values to the tick size of the /ES contract. Actual value for this number was something like 2755.271. I think I'll write a python script to emit these numbers over the weekend.

ES is +11.25 overall at the moment. Moving down slightly, might test the overnight high.

Here's our current situation:
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.

What should we be thinking about? Well what kind of day will it be in market-behavior terms? Trendy or rangey? We had some big wide price moves over the last 48 hours, which I'd consider to be range...we should adjust our trading strategy for different market conditions. In big price-swings like this my poor 8-tick stop-losses are like a rowboat in an angry ocean. If I was trading a bigger account, I could widen my stop-losses and still keep the same risk profile.

So there is added pressure on our timing in more volatile conditions unless we can find a way to sneak past that timing pressure somehow.

Small move up above 2756.00 now. We're right around the opening bell too so things might get wild. I have no idea when exactly because we're on a sim so we're delayed but we have to be aware of opening bell shennanigans, especially if we were trading the /NQ, tight stop-losses just get demolished at the opening bell in the insanity.

Creeped back down to the fibo 23.6%
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.

Think. So what are the other market players doing. I don't have any order-flow tools or fancy DOM stuff to play with, alas we only have our wits. Everyone seems to be coy right now, where are they hiding...Perhaps there are a bunch of orders up at yesterday's high of 2763? I'm feeling bullish overall but there's no proof to support why other than we're up 11 points instead of down, that could change.

Dropping a bit towards the overnight high.

I notice that the price has been loosely testing various prices along our fibonacci ladder over time:
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.

We're up a bit, i am thinking 2758.25 is a good spot to go long if we break 2758.50, we'd be over 2 handles away from the price we were stuck at this morning. and I think we could approach yesterday's high of 2763.00.

Order in - long 1 contract at 2758.25! Oh no, we missed it. Guess that was the opening bell. Oh my, after testing yesterday's high it soared to 2769.00 wow that would have been huge, but we're sitting with a working order at 2758.25. Didn't hit our new fibonacci extensions yet.

I think i'll adjust a bit and hang just below yesterday's high, but why do I want to do that exactly? I think novice move would sell there, that's what I would have done with my first instinct. I think I will hang a bit below with my working order to buy. I think greed will cause many traders to support this level.

Sorry, I accidently refreshed the page and all my charting lines are gone. Simulator fun. I have the numbers in my head, at least the relevant ones for now, I'll re-plot some relevant ones. We're a buck and a half above yesterday's high, i have a working order 2 points below yesterday's high to buy, that might be too low to get filled. Hovering around 2765.00.

Should I move up again? what's the justification, other than the market seems bullish at the moment. Actually if it start oscillating between 2764 and 2767 like it appears to want to, that could be a new trading strategy to get in on the price-oscillations for a couple points back and forth. But it seems to want to get up higher.

Ok new strategy. I think with this bullishness there will be more support than panic at yesterday's high of 2763.00, I'm going to move my working order up a bit higher. to 2764.00. But the price goes higher, we're 5 points down. What am I missing?

In the meantime, it looks like the first fibonacci extension at 2770.75 is a decent enough goal to shoot for, 6 points would be huge and reasonably obtainable I think.
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.

Ok I adjust my working order down to 2763.50 and set a stop at 2761.50. Price is dropping in close. At this point we might actually get filled and we can test my support theory. Or it may just not care about my silly magic number and stop me out. So why is the price moving down? What are these market players' motives?

I am convinced I'm not going to go chasing this price up into the sky today. It is moving around in a small range between yesterday's high and first fibonacci extension of +23.6%. Patience. Going to get coffee.

Back. still hovering. Moving towards our working order slightly, I consider if I'm holding this working order too long and if the moment has passed, but I think this is still a smart play because I anticipate there will be a lot of market participants waiting to buy around 2763.00. Came witin about 3 ticks of potentially getting filled.

We shouldn't just wait around here, I should be thinking of more market factors that I'm learning about. How about Point-of-Control (POC) vs Volume Point-of-Control (VPOC). futures.io article is a stub, i'll have to look elsewhere.

Looks like our price was touched but we didn't get filled. I will guess that this is because the queue is extremely deep here which supports my hypothesis that this is a good strategy. We will see if we even get filled.

I also am realizing that this feels more like the typical trades I make (picking a spot to see if I get filled and hope for a reversal) only this time I have more oomph behind my gut.

But the /ES is already up 24 points, I may have missed my opportunity. I'm going to hold on for a bit longer since that last touch must have cleared out much of the queue in front of me (my logic may be inaccurate).

I start to think my moment has passed, I'm going to clear out these working orders, because I feel like like I'm holding onto an earlier missed opportunity and market conditions may be changing underneath the scenes. I'm out. Going to watch this for a little bit and maybe call it a day, I don't want to force anything.

Well that is anti-climactic. Missed a huge opportunity, I think I need a new type of order to use, maybe a Stop-Buy? I was wanting to go with that momentum, but it surged past us, would have been 10 points assuming I managed it effectively, I would have been happy with half of that, but at this point I run the risk of stretching to try and make something happen. I am happy that I tested some of these strategies and even saw that support around my working order. Calling it a day at a little before 10:00AM CST.

This is what the chart looks like as I leave, slight uptrend above the first fibonacci extension at 2770.75:
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.


What I liked:
- Patience, thought calmly and with a clear head.
- I followed up on the goals that I said I would yesterday and they helped me understand this morning's market behavior better.
- My hypothesis about support around yesterday's high price appeared to be valid.
- I remembered in case I got filled to use my fibonacci extension as a price goal to keep me from panic-closing for 2-3 ticks profit. Didn't actually get filled to test this though.

What I did Poorly:
- Failed to understand how to place the right order for the market conditions, I just wasn't fast enough, should have been a Stop-Buy(?) instead of a limit order which would require the price to take a step back.
- Didn't have a backup strategy to take advantage of the price-oscillations here, after the initial surge. I could have picked up multiple points easily:
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.

Goals for Monday:
- Write a Python script to emit all the relevant fibonacci retracement/extension %'s.
- Write another script to compute average daily range over say 5 days and give the range and one standard deviation above and below
- Read much more about supply/demand trading, Depth-of-Market, and Order-flow, and try to gain more insight into where the "smart money" is, I feel like my ideas on this today were supported but time will tell.
- Try to come up with ways to think about and have multiple backup strategies, thinking a few moves ahead.
- Get a better understanding of time-based POC vs VPOC.
- Keep thinking about improving risk/reward ratio.

Accumulated Expectancy since start of journal (avg win * % win) - (avg loss * % loss) // per BigMike & FuturesTrader71's video
avg win = (7 + 8) / 2 = 7.5 => (7.5 * 1) - (0 * 0) // 2 wins, no losses
expectancy = 7.5

See you Monday!


Last edited by snax; February 15th, 2019 at 02:54 PM. Reason: Adding expectancy per BigMike & FuturesTrader71's video
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  #5 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Day 3 - February 18, 2019

Very low volume today due to President's Day. Quick glance shows /CLJ9 with the highest volume at 238K contracts traded.

CME site is buggy today. After getting a few "Access Denied" errors trying to get to the CME Simulator, I attempt going through the trading competition links and am able to successfully navigate to the simulator that way. My head is on vacation today and I could use the rest, but I'm glad I've made progress on some of the goals I listed Friday.

- I wrote a small program to compute the fibonacci retracements and extensions i want based off of input high and low prices. Then I can just quickly sketch these values out on the chart.

- I am not sure how I want to compute the average daily range since the original formula does not account for gaps between trading periods. Also, I don't want to manually copy/pasta the historical high/low prices for different days since that would defeat the purpose of writing a program. A liitle digging showed me that barchart.com has a free API from which I supposedly can freely pull the high/low prices for various days. I'll add exploring this option to my next goal set, this could be fun.

- I researched Depth-of-Market enough to thouroughly question the fact that my current platform of choice (besides sim) doesn't offer level 2 market data currently. I may eventually have to re-consider my brokerage/trading platform but for now I need to build consistency in sim before I worry about that.

- I am setting a goal of waiting for at least 8 ticks before I adjust my position to lock in a profit, this should help my risk/reward-ratio.

- I plan on researching POC vs VPOC later today, as well as VWAP.

Going to go spend some time relaxing now, it will be a hectic week and there will also be plenty of trading opportunities when volume picks back up tomorrow.

I'm happy i'm keeping up with my goals for now.

Goals for Tomorrow
- Define Trading Plan more rigorously. Thanks to the community for pointing me at the futures.io youtube channel, I found this video by FuturesTrader71 about developing Expectancy and good habits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6Wykz1ySqA
Additionally, I've read about many traders here attempting programs like oneup and topstep, and this inspired me to create my own trading combine based off the goals for the novice challenges on those sites. Combining the ideas from FuturesTrader71's video along with the rules on the trading challenge sites mentioned I have come up with the following plan so far:

Snax Novice Trading Challenge
- Enter 30 trades while evaluating my current trading approach, being aware of the 5 mistakes FuturesTrader71 mentions. Accumulate expectancy.
- Profit target of $1500.00 over the course of those 30 trades.
- Each week starts at Max 1 contract per trade, max $100 drawdown per day, max $200 drawdown per week. If I accumulate $400 profit I earn the right but not the obligation to bump up to 2 contracts for 1 trade. If I win on this trade then I continue to choose between 1-2 contracts but my max drawdown for the week still must be +$200.00 profit from where I opened the week, otherwise I fail the challenge and reset.
EDIT: Since this is a 30-trade challenge and not time-based, I think I may consider changing the max $200.00 drawdown, I don't want this to turn into not-trading because of arbitrary rules, maybe i'll change this to automatic reset if I exceed max 3 losing trades in a row (10% of total trades for this challenge). I would like this to be a difficult challenge that stresses consistency, lots of smart smaller trades, and little margin for error to develop better judgment.
- If I hit the profit target of $1500.00 I still must finish my 30 trades and have a final profit >= $1500.00
- If I fail I start over this challenge and re-evaluate my approach. If I succeed I create a new, more challenging plan.

Accumulated Expectancy since start of journal (avg win * % win) - (avg loss * % loss) // per BigMike & FuturesTrader71's video
avg win = (7 + 8) / 2 = 7.5 => (7.5 * 1) - (0 * 0) // 2 wins, no losses
expectancy = 7.5

2 trades entered, 28 remaining
accumulated profit towards goal $187.50

One more thing to keep in the back of my mind, start paying attention to ViX and its relationship to how market volatility feels.

Peace.
snax


Last edited by snax; February 18th, 2019 at 04:27 PM. Reason: 1)Adding Goals and accumulated expectancy for Tomorrow, 2) tweek challenge rules, add VIX
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  #6 (permalink)
Legendary the coin hunter
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Platform: ninja
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
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..

- I am not sure how I want to compute the average daily range since the original formula does not account for gaps between trading periods...

Peace.
snax

I compute ADR by sum of each day's range / count of days; ignore day without data. Gap between trade days is used to calculate Average True Range so it is diff from ADR.

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  #7 (permalink)
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Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Thank you, Cory!

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  #8 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Day 4 - February 19, 2019

Really tired today. I start by plotting out high/lows and fibonacci retracements/extensions.

I try to calculate average daily range and one standard deviation

Daily price ranges over last week:
49.50
32.75
19.25
42.50
21.00

49.50 + 32.75 + 19.25 + 42.50 + 21.00 = 165.00
165.00 / 5.00 = 33.00 average daily range.
Opening Price of ETH +/- 33.00
one standard deviation above below:
49.50 - 33.00 = 16.50
32.75 - 33.00 = -0.25
19.25 - 33.00 = -13.75
42.50 - 33.00 = 9.50
21.00 - 33.00 = -12.00

(16.50)^2 = 272.25
(-0.25)^2 = 0.0625
(-13.75)^2 = 189.0625
(9.50)^2 = 90.25
(-12.00)^2 = 144.00

272.25 + 0.0625 + 189.0625 + 90.25 + 144.00 = 695.625
695.625 / 5 = 139.125
139.125^(1/2) = 11.795

I'm not sure how to apply this, this looks wrong:
2,788.75
open: 2,777.00
2,765.25

Maybe its open + range + standard deviation but that seems like way too much.

Before 7:30am CST, S&P down 7 points, but Nasdaq is only down about 17 points, which i guess is pretty close to their usual relationship, maybe a little closer to each other than normal. /ES had a huge up-trend on Friday, we should consider that for today's activity. /ESH9 futures price bouncing off the 76.4% fibo level at 2766.75 earlier. VIX is down today at 16.00 (−0.22).

More selling pressure now in terms of volume. Kind of lazy bear momentum, very slow. Wouldn't exactly call it bearish since the price rose 49.5 points on Friday I would expect some people to take profits.

Cool, you can lock your drawing tools but I don't see a way to save during a refresh, well time to re-draw.

Missed a small opportunity as it bounced off the 76.4% fibo line again. What would qualify that as an opportunity? Well we've seen the price fluttering around that line earlier, seems to have some support, volume around 300K+ contracts traded now. We see a bounce but no kind of upward momentum to speak of. If we breach the 76.4% mark by a substantial amount I'm going short, but we're 3 points above that. Substantial amound might be a point, maybe two depending on the behavior.

8:00am CSTPrice-oscillations just aren't consistent enough for me to try and grab a couple points here while we're in this ~2767-2770 range. I plot new lines at 2768.50 up to 2771.00 because there seems to be a trading range forming here, but I'm only holding onto this loosely.

Once we see a signal we will wait for confirmation.

Price breaks down to 2766.25 and I go short, now things stall. I think I mis-interpreted the failure to break free of this mark as a signal that it was weak. Doesn't matter now, we need to wait it out and commit. I like how the sim really resembles live trading now, I don't even know why it was so easy to trade before. I pay for my impulsiveness by being stopped out at 2768.25 for a loss of -$100.00 + $5.50 make-believe fees.

Possible range for taking advantage of price oscillation if it develops
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In hind-sight there really wasn't a signal.
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Final result for my foolishness.
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What I liked:
- Building consistent preparation.

What I did Poorly:
- I don't have clear signals for when to open trades, which leads to impulsiveness.
- Not clear-headed, traded while feeling fatigued.
- Went from thinking about a long position off the support line to taking a short position w/o much thought.

Goals for tomorrow:
- Try to add an element to my trading signal recognition. Will research.

Accumulated Expectancy since start of journal (avg win * % win) - (avg loss * % loss) // per BigMike & FuturesTrader71's video
avg win = (7 + 8) / 3 = 7.5
avg loss = 8
=> (7.5 * 0.66) - (8 * 0.33) // 2 wins, 1 loss
expectancy = 2.31

3 trades entered, 27 remaining
accumulated profit towards goal $87.50

See you tomorrow.


Last edited by snax; February 19th, 2019 at 12:15 PM. Reason: clarification
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  #9 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Dissecting Retrospective of Bad Trade today - Feb 19, 2019

I realize now that I had a very similar trading situation to last Friday:


Quoting 
I think i'll adjust a bit and hang just below yesterday's high, but why do I want to do that exactly? I think novice move would sell there, that's what I would have done with my first instinct. I think I will hang a bit below with my working order to buy. I think greed will cause many traders to support this level.

.

This time instead of yesterday's high we were at 76.4% fibo retracement of 2766.75, and again I think smart move would have been understanding that there was buying support just underneath this level. We were about 11 points down in the /ES so I mistook that as a bearish signal but really there was more upside after some people had taken profits:
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It is very funny that I forgot everything about my strategy from Friday. I want to remember this mistake.

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I am actually glad I made this trade, it was a good learning experience

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  #10 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
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Posts: 361 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 797 given, 647 received

Day 5 - February 20, 2019


Day 5!

Yesterday I made a bad trade because I didn't follow my trading strategy and became impulsive.

Today I mapped out high/lows and fibo levels. Realized I can't even plot out standard deviations of ADR because they're too far off the current chart in the simulator to access so I'll just be aware of them in the back of my mind.

Ranging around 50.0% fibo line of yesterday's High/Low on the 5min chart, this could be consistent. I am getting more open-minded to watching different tick-sizes and timings(1m, 3m, 5m), they all seem to tell a slightly different story, right now I look for the one that shows the most actionable behavior.

S&Ps down a point at the moment, 7:55am CST. Lots of possible range in both directions. Split out of the current range by a few ticks now at 2778.75, but momentum stops at the golden ratio which puts a smile on my face.

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Stop-Buy working at 2779.75 because it I've identified an opportunity to go long with my current understanding of my system. Futurs-price is even for the day at 2778.75. Also looking to profit if it oscillates back down to the 2775-2776 spot..probably won't go short but that could be an opportunity to go long as well.

Filled! Actually got filled on my Stop-Buy 1 tick lower when it got converted to a market order. We hit our stop-buy @2779.50 about 8:30am cst, and i am tempted to close out at $50.00 Profit (2780.50) but I will wait it out. the waiting is the hardest part, i will wait until we hit 2781.50 to adjust. we're up $75.00 just 2 ticks away from being up 2 points when price comes back down to Break-Even. close to opening bell, back up $75 then back to BE. Crazy thrashing between 2779.50 and 2780.75. @2781.25 playing it cool. Dips back down to @2780.50, We hit 2781.50 and i hold, about to adjust. We drop all the way down to negative now. We come within a tick of getting stopped out, but we recover, that was a VERY close-call.

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Back up $50.00, I'm determined to hold out for 8 ticks
because I believe 2782.50 is obtainable. We hit 2781.50 again and i wait to increase past this to adjust my stop.

More thrashing.

We jump past 2781.50 and I adjust my stop-loss to lock in 8 ticks. Price immediately drops and I get filled. We're out with an 8-tick profit. Glad I stuck to my guns.

Price got up to 2782.25 so I was close to being right about the 2782.50 mark, that looks at least at the moment to be a level of resistance, price drops severely again, nice volatility here, there may be a way to exploit these price-oscillations but I'm stepping away for a few minutes to gather my thoughts and enjoy being up 8 ticks on the /ESH9 for the day so far.

Price breaks through the 76.4% mark but I'm not ready to attempt the same play I made at 61.8% so I sit out. My trading stamina would have been severely tested by the last trade had this been live so I know I wouldn't be jumping back in again so quickly, I have to build up more tolerance for those close-calls.

This was a trade I am proud of because I used a trading strategy I've been attempting to try out but had either missed my opportunity or mis-recognized it, and I also held on until I gained 8 ticks. I guess I could call it something like "catching momentum off of support" but honestly this trade could have gone long or short, difference being the short play would have only gained 7 ticks (8 would have stopped me out) whereas I caught 8 ticks on the long play (plus some ticks I left on the table). This move seems to be part of a larger price oscillation that is developing.

I also notice that while trading exclusively in /ESH9 I missed a huge move in /CLJ9.

Price is oscillating between 76.4% fibo level and up to ~50% of previous high but it surges toward previous high. I decide to just watch here.

I guess I could start defining my current strategy now in more concrete terms since I am trading based off of it and it is appearing to be actionable based off of 1 filled trade and several missed opportunities.

I am going to stop for now. As I leave, market looks like this, you can clearly see there were more ticks to be gained but I am happy:

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And our final results:

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What i liked:
- Followed through on my trading strategy ideas
- I have a clear definition in actionable terms of my trading strategy and I executed it.
- Held on for my full 8-ticks even if it meant getting stopped-out which I nearly did
- Didn't panic and kept an open-mind for different trading opportunities

What I did poorly:
- My trading "stamina" was exhausted after one thrashy trade. This type of market made it possible to take advantage of multiple opportunities.
- May need to re-introduce /CL into my repertoire but this is good start for now

Goals for tomorrow
- Clearly specify my trading-strategy in concrete, actionable terms
- Think about more ways to make my trading strategy more explicit

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8) / 3 = 7.66 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8 ticks
% win = (3 / 4) = 0.75
% loss = (1 / 4) = 0.25
expectancy = (7.66 * 0.75) - (8 * 0.25) = 3.745 ticks
$1500 profit goal, +$187.50 achieved, $1312.50 to go.
4 trades of 30 entered, 26 trades to go.
Need an avg of $50.48/trade, about 5 ticks, but my expectancy is 3.745, so I must raise expectancy.

Cheers,
snax


Last edited by snax; February 20th, 2019 at 01:23 PM. Reason: Clarifying spot where I got filled.
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