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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #211 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622

Patiently stalked this one over lunch, just to get back on track. +8-ticks. Best MES trade yet, Done for the day.



That's better.

expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8) / 5 = 5.0000 ticks
avg loss = (43) / 1 = 43.0000 ticks
% win = (5 / 6) = 0.8333
% loss = (1 / 6) = 0.1667
current cycle expectancy = (5.0000 * 0.8333) - (43.0000 * 0.1667) = -3.0016 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 11.1765 ticks
avg loss = 9.4583 ticks
% win = (51 / 75) = 0.6800
% loss = (24 / 75) = 0.3200
expectancy = (11.1765 * 0.6800) - (9.4583 * 0.3200) = 4.5734 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$-22.50 achieved.
-$22.50 current drawdown
6 trades of 60 entered.
I need (622.50/54) = $11.53 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is -3.0016 ticks

~~~~ HOMEWORK - sketched market-profile May 16, 2019 ~~~~

2894.00 F
2893.75 F
2893.50 F
2893.25 F
2893.00 F
2892.75 F
2892.50 F
2892.25 EF
2892.00 EF
2891.75 EFG
2891.50 EFG
2891.25 EFG
2891.00 EFG
2890.75 EFG
2890.50 EFG
2890.25 DEFG
2890.00 DEFG
2889.75 DEFGH
2889.50 DEFGH
2889.25 DEFGH
2889.00 DEFGHK
2888.75 DEFGHK
2888.50 DEGHK
2888.25 DEGHIJK
2888.00 DEGHIJK
2887.75 CDEGHIJK
2887.50 CDEGHIJK
2887.25 CDEGHIJK
2887.00 CDEGHIJK
2886.75 CDGHIJK
2886.50 CDGHIJK
2886.25 CDGHIJK
2886.00 CDGHIJK
2885.75 CDHIJK
2885.50 BCDHIJK
2885.25 BCDHIJK
2885.00 BCDHIJKL
2884.75 BCDHIJKL
2884.50 BCDHIJKL
2884.25 BCDIJKL
2884.00 BCDIJKL
2883.75 BCDIJKL
2883.50 BCIJKL
2883.25 BCIJKL
2883.00 BCIJKL
2882.75 BIJKL
2882.50 BIJKL
2882.25 BIJKL
2882.00 BIJL
2881.75 BIJLM
2881.50 BJLM
2881.25 BJLM
2881.00 BJLM
2880.75 BJLM
2880.50 BLM
2880.25 BLM
2880.00 BLM
2879.75 BLM
2879.50 ABLM
2879.25 ABLM
2879.00 ABLM
2878.75 ABLM
2878.50 ABLM
2878.25 ABLM
2878.00 ABLM
2877.75 ABM
2877.50 ABM
2877.25 AM
2877.00 AM
2876.75 AM
2876.50 AM
2876.25 AM
2876.00 AM
2875.75 AM
2875.50 AM
2875.25 AM
2875.00 AM
2874.75 AM
2874.50 AM
2874.25 AM
2874.00 AM
2873.75 AM
2873.50 AM
2873.25 AM
2872.75 AM
2872.50 A
2872.25 A
2872.00 A
2871.75 A
2871.50 A
2871.25 A
2871.00 A
2870.75 A
2870.50 A
2870.25 A
2870.00 A
2869.75 A
2869.50 A
2869.25 A
2869.00 A
2868.75 A
2868.50 A
2868.25 A
2868.00 A
2867.75 A
2867.50 A
2867.25 A
2867.00 A
2866.75 A
2866.50 A
2866.25 A
2866.00 A
2865.75 A
2865.50 A
2865.25 A
2865.00 A
2864.75 A
2864.50 A
2864.25 A
2864.00 A
2863.75 A
2863.50 A
2863.25 A
2863.00 A
2862.75 A
2862.50 A
2862.25 A
2862.00 A
2861.75 A
2861.50 A
2861.25 A
2861.00 A
2860.75 A
2860.50 A
2860.25 A
2860.00 A
2859.75 A
2859.50 A
2859.25 A
2859.00 A
2858.75 A
2858.50 A
2858.25 A
2858.00 A
2857.75 A
2857.50 A
2857.25 A
2857.00 A
2856.75 A
2856.50 A
2856.25 A
2856.00 A
2855.75 A
2855.50 A
2855.25 A
2855.00 A
2854.75 A
2854.50 A
2854.25 A
2854.00 A
2853.75 A
2853.50 A
2853.25 A


Yet Again A period establishes the low extreme of the day.(Note: that low should have been 2859.25, not sure how I got 2853.25). This was one of the sneakiest open-drives I've encountered yet, and A-F periods all pushed higher with range-extension upwards. However in F period a single-print selling tail was constructed when OTFS rejected price and started auctioning back down. Then we see market-sentiment firmly changed as G-J periods all exhibit range-extension downward. OTFB did try to push price back up in J period but K and L periods sent price back down with M period closing range looking very bearish, pushing price all the way down into the single-print buying tail established at the opening.

I am excited to trade tomorrow but I will have to be cautious because this market just doesn't want to rest, I was certain we'd get a bracketed market in balance, but I should have listened to my first instinct, we were opening above yesterday's range which typically means a market out of balance with the potential for big price movement.

I've found all kinds of ways to botch trading this market over the past few days, I am looking to be patient tomorrow and end the week on a high note.

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  #212 (permalink)
 
vmodus's Avatar
 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker: Barchart.com
Trading: Everything, it all tastes like chicken
Posts: 1,271 since Feb 2017
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snax View Post
I've found all kinds of ways to botch trading this market over the past few days, I am looking to be patient tomorrow and end the week on a high note.

If I had a dime for every time I thought that..... I would have a few dollars. Keep up the good work.

~vmodus

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  #213 (permalink)
 
brewtrader's Avatar
 brewtrader 
Kaiserslautern, Germany
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart and TOS
Broker: Infinity Futures, Interactive Brokers, and TDA
Trading: /RTY and /ES
Posts: 19 since Jul 2018
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 8


snax,

So, man this is a hellofa thread/journal! Dude, you are putting a lot of work into this, you will SURELY reap the rewards.

I'm just starting to read your thread, started with Day 63 for some odd reason! Anyway, you said "- Needed to use a 16-tick stop on my second trade and I came within a couple ticks of getting stopped-out numerous times, just to get a 4-tick gain.", and that so reminded me of me. So, I'm fairly new to futures, been doing other trading (stocks, options, crypto) for about 3 years now, but futures for about 6 months (and now I'm STAYING with futures!). I'm trading mostly LIVE and go back and forth between /ES and now the /MES. I'm scalping the /ES for 4 ticks profit and having a risk of 8 ticks. This seems so counter intuitive and goes against everything I've learned about making your winners bigger than your losers....but damn, in this market I'm just happy to get those 4 ticks because the market feels so bipolar right now that I don't trust it to try to go for 16 ticks of reward and 8 ticks risk! I am sure this is all mental, but I'm having a tough time with it. I will let the /MES run and I KNOW it works, but seeing a negative $15-30 is not so bad, but seeing that times 10 freaks me out! LOL

I see you're reading a lot of good books, me too. I'm about 3 chapters into about 10 different books! I'm starting to feel ADHD...

Anyway, thanks for the posts...great stuff!
Randy

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  #214 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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brewtrader View Post
So, man this is a hellofa thread/journal! Dude, you are putting a lot of work into this, you will SURELY reap the rewards.

Anyway, thanks for the posts...great stuff!
Randy

@brewtrader .... yeah, I totally agree. I wish I could be as disciplined as @snax.

@snax, thanks for the great entry! Always fun to read your posts.

Have a great weekend!

~vmodus

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  #215 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622

Day 66

@7:20AM CST - E-Mini S&Ps down 21.50 points, VIX at 16.06.

@7:30AM CST - I messed up my market-profile sketch yesterday by putting the low at 2853.25 instead of 2859.25. I thought that was a huge initial balance but I didn't even comment on it, I blame fatighe

@8:00AM - I open a working order short @2858.50 but I don't get filled and I miss the opportunity. I may look to get long at the ONL/VWAP, anticipating an equivalent price-oscillation back up.

@8:10AM - I am filled short 1 contract in the MES @2858.50. Stop set @2862.50. Expecting price to drift back down towards ONL/VWAP.
@8:17AM - I adjust my stop to 2856.50. I am closed out for a +8-tick gain.
@8:24AM - I realize I executed that trade on 30min bars used for prep instead of 5 or 1min bars as i usually use. ><

@8:29AM - I open a long position @2852.75 for 1 MES contract.
@8:30AM - Price goes my way but I adjust too aggressively and get closed early with slippage for a +7-tick gain @2854.50, completely missing out on the impulse up, but I don't regret it because had it swung back i would have been stopped-out immediately.

Now I'm going to reset and be patient. I want to work on my trade-management today to hold on for bigger gains. (Edit: this was not so easy! Changing your trading behavior take more than a couple trades!)

The rest was a blur and I was working too, I did a retro below for each trade!

Here was the final chart as I stepped away to focus on work. (Apologies, my platform doesn't have the best drawing tools, I wish I could annotate the trades right on the chart but haven't found a good way to do it yet).



and final results:



lots of cuts and bruises today, not to mention getting sh*t done at work.

= Retro =
Trade 1: +8-tick gain. This was my best trade of the day I felt like, but also not very well managed. I picked a pretty good entry-point to go short and the price-action behaved as expected...if I'd let the thing run instead of pushing my stop up too soon to lock in the 2 points. I chalk this up to being over-eager to place a strong first MES trade of the day, not a terrible move, 8-ticks gained is 8-ticks gained. Good trade.

Trade 2: +7-tick gain. Riskiest time to enter, worst-managed trade of the day. All week the Opening Bell has set the low extreme of the day, and while I know that is in the past and each moment is different, aye chihuahua...you cannot get better trade-location than this. Potential 30-point trade (ok, lets be real I would have closed out by 8:50AM for 10 points at most) reduced to 7-ticks of scraps by my nervous trade-management.

Trade 3: Not too bad, Entered too early. Was feeling a bit fearless after coming away with a couple winners and feeling the pain from missing out on that potential huge earlier trade. What I need to remember is that the thread of the Initial-Balance turning and running me over was still high. Getting out by cutting my losses at -4-ticks was ok.

Trade 4: Another trade where I got in too early. Was lucky to close out at +4-ticks. Had I waited 10 minutes this would have been a much better trade but it looked ok at the time.

Trade 5: Detecting a them here, I seem to be a few minutes early on quite a few today and this isn't a new issue for me. Got the move I wanted later, after I'd closed this out with a tiny profit.

Trade 6: A tad late on a downward rotation I'd tried to catch earlier, missed a few ticks here but that's ok, this was 8-ticks -1 for slippage.

Summary
What a thrash-fest that was. I could have had a monster day if I had stayed away from closing my second trade of the day too soon, but at the same time, I think you have to go through this experience to gain the feel for when to hang on. I don't have too many regrets, even with all the mistakes I made this was a great day. Just learning to keep grinding through the disappointments, I would never be ashamed at this point in my career to close a day up 25-ticks!
=======
1. +8-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +7-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
3. -4-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
4. +4-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
5. +3-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
6. +7-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +25-ticks




What i liked:
- Got into the heat of the battle today, kept coming back, improved my expectancy, came away with 25-ticks.



What I didn't like:
- Need to let some of those winners run, but I have to learn my lessons. I can't go from novice to expert in days or weeks. I like the direction I'm headed. The win/loss ratio and ticks i left on the table tell me that my expectancy isn't an accident.


Goals for Monday:
- Get through "Competent" section of Mind over Markets
- Continue plodding through my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.


expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7) / 10 = 5.4000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4) / 2 = 23.5000 ticks
% win = (10 / 12) = 0.8333
% loss = (2 / 12) = 0.1667
current cycle expectancy = (5.4000 * 0.8333) - (23.5000 * 0.1667) = 0.5824 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.6964 ticks
avg loss = 9.2400 ticks
% win = (56 / 81) = 0.6914
% loss = (25 / 81) = 0.3086
expectancy = (10.6964 * 0.6914) - (9.2400 * 0.3086) = 4.5440 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$8.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
11 trades of 60 entered.
I need (591.25/49) = $12.07 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 0.5824 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $0.73. (LOL)

Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades.

~~~~ HOMEWORK - sketched market-profile for May 17, 2019 ~~~~

2887.75 D
2887.50 D
2887.25 D
2887.00 D
2886.75 D
2886.50 D
2886.25 D
2886.00 D
2885.75 D
2885.50 CD
2885.25 CD
2885.00 CD
2884.75 CD
2884.50 CD
2884.25 CD
2884.00 CD
2883.75 CD
2883.50 CD
2883.25 CDE
2883.00 CDE
2882.75 CDE
2882.50 CDE
2882.25 CDE
2882.00 CDE
2881.75 CE
2881.50 CE
2881.25 CE
2881.00 CE
2880.75 CE
2880.50 CEH
2880.25 CEH
2880.00 CEH
2879.75 CEHJ
2879.50 CEHIJ
2879.25 CEHIJ
2879.00 CEHIJ
2878.75 CEHIJ
2878.50 CEHIJ
2878.25 CEHIJ
2878.00 CEHIJ
2877.75 CEHIJ
2877.50 CEFHIJK
2877.25 CEFGHIJK
2877.00 CEFGHIJKL
2876.75 CEFGHIJKL
2876.50 CEFGHIJKL
2876.25 CEFGHIJKL
2876.00 CEFGHIJKL
2875.75 CEFGHIJKL
2875.50 CEFGHIJKL
2875.25 CEFGHIJKL
2875.00 CEFGHIJKL
2874.75 CEFGHIJKL
2874.50 CEFGIJKL
2874.25 CEFGIJKL
2874.00 CEFGIJKL
2873.75 CEFGIJKL
2873.50 CEFGIKL
2873.25 CEFGKL
2873.00 BCEFGKL
2872.75 BCEFGKL
2872.50 BCEFGKL
2872.25 BCFGL
2872.00 BCFGL
2871.75 BCFGL
2871.50 BCFGL
2871.25 BCFGL
2871.00 BCFGL
2870.75 BCFGL
2870.50 BCFGL
2870.25 BCFGL
2870.00 BCFGL
2869.75 BCFGL
2869.50 BCFGL
2869.25 BCFL
2869.00 BCL
2868.75 BCL
2868.50 BCL
2868.25 BCL
2868.00 BCL
2867.75 BCL
2867.50 BCL
2867.25 ABCL
2867.00 ABL
2866.75 ABL
2866.50 ABL
2866.25 ABLM
2866.00 ABLM
2865.75 ABLM
2865.50 ABLM
2865.25 ABLM
2865.00 ABLM
2864.75 ABLM
2864.50 ABLM
2864.25 ABLM
2864.00 ABLM
2863.75 ABLM
2863.50 ABLM
2863.25 ABLM
2863.00 ABLM
2862.75 ABLM
2862.50 ABLM
2862.25 ABLM
2862.00 ABLM
2861.75 ABLM
2861.50 ABLM
2861.25 ABLM
2861.00 ABLM
2860.75 ABLM
2860.50 ABLM
2860.25 ABLM
2860.00 ABLM
2859.75 ABM
2859.50 ABM
2859.25 ABM
2859.00 ABM
2858.75 ABM
2858.50 ABM
2858.25 ABM
2858.00 ABM
2857.75 ABM
2857.50 AM
2857.25 A
2857.00 A
2856.75 A
2856.50 A
2856.25 A
2856.00 A
2855.75 A
2855.50 A
2855.25 A
2855.00 A
2854.75 A
2854.50 A
2854.25 A
2854.00 A
2853.75 A
2853.50 A
2853.25 A
2853.00 A
2852.75 A


Another big drive upward right at the bell for like the fourth day in a row, strong directional-conviction from bulls (for some reaon?) pushing us to an initial-balance that was 20.25 points wide. We experienced further range-extension to the upside in C and D periods hinting at yet another trend-day which would have been crazy. Finally the market cooled down a little and we settled into a "normal-variation" day. Overall pretty similar pattern to the last few days structure-wise, we just didn't have the hyper-elongated profile of a trend day or double/multi-distribution trend day. Makes sense the market has to rest and get into balance at some point. Just as in previous days the M period closing-range was bearish, falling back to brush the single-print buying tail established at opening bell.

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  #216 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622


brewtrader View Post
snax,

So, man this is a hellofa thread/journal! Dude, you are putting a lot of work into this, you will SURELY reap the rewards.

I'm just starting to read your thread, started with Day 63 for some odd reason! Anyway, you said "- Needed to use a 16-tick stop on my second trade and I came within a couple ticks of getting stopped-out numerous times, just to get a 4-tick gain.", and that so reminded me of me. So, I'm fairly new to futures, been doing other trading (stocks, options, crypto) for about 3 years now, but futures for about 6 months (and now I'm STAYING with futures!). I'm trading mostly LIVE and go back and forth between /ES and now the /MES. I'm scalping the /ES for 4 ticks profit and having a risk of 8 ticks. This seems so counter intuitive and goes against everything I've learned about making your winners bigger than your losers....but damn, in this market I'm just happy to get those 4 ticks because the market feels so bipolar right now that I don't trust it to try to go for 16 ticks of reward and 8 ticks risk! I am sure this is all mental, but I'm having a tough time with it. I will let the /MES run and I KNOW it works, but seeing a negative $15-30 is not so bad, but seeing that times 10 freaks me out! LOL

I see you're reading a lot of good books, me too. I'm about 3 chapters into about 10 different books! I'm starting to feel ADHD...

Anyway, thanks for the posts...great stuff!
Randy

Thank you for the kind words, good luck to you!

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  #217 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622


vmodus View Post
If I had a dime for every time I thought that..... I would have a few dollars. Keep up the good work.

~vmodus

Thank you @vmodus! Hope you have a great weekend!

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  #218 (permalink)
 
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 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
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Nice way to end the week @snax ! It always makes it easier to enjoy the weekend after you bank a bunch of ticks on Friday!

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  #219 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,612
Thanks Received: 9,622


Salao View Post
Nice way to end the week @snax ! It always makes it easier to enjoy the weekend after you bank a bunch of ticks on Friday!

Thanks @Salao! This week was kind of a (fun) mess for me over all but I wouldn't expect it to be anything else at this stage. You have been doing a good job getting the most out of each trade recently, I need to take a page from you and get some better risk/reward-ratio starting this week, that's the plan anyway.

Cheers!

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  #220 (permalink)
 
Salao's Avatar
 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
Posts: 1,250 since Jun 2017
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snax View Post
Thanks @Salao! This week was kind of a (fun) mess for me over all but I wouldn't expect it to be anything else at this stage. You have been doing a good job getting the most out of each trade recently, I need to take a page from you and get some better risk/reward-ratio starting this week, that's the plan anyway.

Cheers!

It's been weird lately. Something recently has flipped in my thinking where the anxiety of holding these trades has been reduced but I've been having a hard time selecting profit targets. A couple of times my profit target was too far away and it cost me some points, a lot of points actually. I could have settled for 1R or 2R, but I'm trying to maximize expectancy. And I don't really know how to pick a target beyond 2R yet. It's crazy when you have one beast licked and then another one starts kicking your butt! Sheesh.

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