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progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$0.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
0 trades of 60 entered.
I need ($600/60) = $10.00 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is0.0000 ticks
@7:28AM CST - ESM9 up 19.50 points, VIX at 18.72. Yesterday looked pretty rough, I didn't get a chance to capitalize (or lose) on any of the price-action due to work.
At 6:18 we had set the ONH but now we are plunging a bit. Overnight market was pretty flat over all.
@7:37AM - I am filled on /MESM9 for 1 contract to go long @2822.75 trying to take advantage of a potential reverse-rotation after we dropped 5 point over the last 6 minutes. My stop is set at 2820.75.
@7:42AM - I move my stop up to close out @2823.75 for a +4-tick profit. Trade felt very uncomfortable, I was actually a point late on my entry there in hindsight, though now it seems to be moving up as I wanted. Same pattern of trade-management, different day. Maybe a better opportunity will come.
I seem to have a ridiculously low tolerance for any sort of loss now. I have to fix that for sure
@7:48AM - ESM9 up 18.00 points with now real good news yet and looking at Open Auction In Range. I believe this has the potential to be an "outside-in" day, with a bracketed market. So I'd better get used to these tight price-oscillations if I'm going to make any gains. I could be wrong of course, that's just one probable scenario.
I might see what's going on here. I am a little overly-excited to make "real money", so I jump in aggressively into any opportunity that looks even marginally acceptable. Once in, the chop takes a toll on my confidence and "trader endurance" and I look to get out as quickly as possible. Now I'm messing up my risk/reward-ratio (risking 8-ticks, making only 4-ticks) and that starts to eat into my confidence because its a lot of work for only scraps.
So untangling all that, the keys go back to patience, finding the right opportunities, and committing to a good risk/reward-ratio. "Finding the right opportunities" is the problem to keep chipping away at, the rest is actionable for the most part.
Would have liked to exit that earlier trade at 8:00 [email protected] or thereabouts.
Missed the downward rotation.
@8:14AM - losts of consolidation and chop.
@8:46AM - starting to become comfortable with patiently waiting for all the different opportunities that can present themselves instead of planning to take action if some special thing happens.
@9:07AM - 11 point wide Initial Balance at this poing. If I had to guess I think we are looking at either a normal variation or a neutral day developing. If normal-variation, which extreme is going to hold? I would think the high side would hold, with range-extension occurring on the downside. Clearly a bracketed market at this point, but due to being in the middle of IB I am hesitant to pull the trigger on an "outside-in" move.
@9:20AM - I am filled on a short position for 1 contract in the /MESM9 @2836.00, my stop is set @2840 due to the higher volatility. My target would be below [email protected]. I feel that the extreme will hold on the upside as we're already up over 30 points today.
@9:24AM - Trying to get used to the feeling of being calm and detached while a live trade is on.
@9:43AM - Wow I have to get used to having a trade on for longer than 5 minutes ><
I've noticed my live trades never come easily, I have no idea why, each one wants to fight me every step of the way. I think this is psychological, but its funny how fast my sim-trades seem to go my way as opposed to live-trades which seem to do their best to thwart me.
@9:56AM - As an exposure, I got up and went to get coffee, I took my time and just let a few minutes go by as I talked to people. I came back to see things still chugging away. Part of my fear is that some black swan event is going to occur which leads to disaster. Thankfully with the MES that disaster will only be 1/10 the armageddon-esque fiasco that I'd be suffereing with the ES.
@10:04AM - I finally adjust my stop down to lock in a 4-tick gain again and I am closed out. That felt brutal, I was worried that was the best I could expect so I am happy I am flat.
What i liked:
- This is definitely live-trading. The dynamics are just totally different than sim-trading. Every trade is fighting me every tick. I might just be slightly out-of-sync with the market, seems like the market is finished dropping, so any short at this time is going to be a battle.
- Pushed myself to be ok with having an open live trade that might take some time to resolve. This is a work-in-progress but I did ok.
- Started reading "Fooled by Randomness - The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I really like it so far.
What I didn't like:
- I liked my entry-spots, but the market-behavior once my trade was on was brutal.
- Needed to use a 16-tick stop on my second trade and I came within a couple ticks of getting stopped-out numerous times, just to get a 4-tick gain.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Get through "Competent" section of Mind over Markets
- Continue plodding through my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- Get back to doing price-action homework.
progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$10.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
2 trades of 60 entered.
I need ($590/58) = $10.17 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 4.0000 ticks
My Theoretical Average is currently $5.00. I need to improve my risk/reward-ratio in the live environment.
~~~~ HOMEWORK - sketched market-profile for May 14, 2019 ~~~~
2854.00 I
2853.75 I
2853.50 HIJ
2853.25 HIJ
2853.00 HIJ
2852.75 HIJ
2852.50 HIJ
2852.25 HIJK
2852.00 HIJK
2851.75 HIJK
2851.50 HIJK
2851.25 HIJK
2851.00 HIJK
2850.75 HJK
2850.50 FHJK
2850.25 FHJKL
2850.00 EFHJKL
2849.75 EFHJKL
2849.50 EFHJKL
2849.25 EFHJKL
2849.00 EFHJKL
2848.75 EFHJKL
2848.50 EFHJKL
2848.25 EFGHJKL
2848.00 EFGHJKL
2847.75 EFGHJKL
2847.50 EFGHJKL
2847.25 EFGHJKL
2847.00 EFGHJKL
2846.75 EFGHJKL
2846.50 EFGHJKL
2846.25 EFGHJKLM
2846.00 EFGHJKLM
2845.75 DEFGHJKLM
2845.50 DEFGKLM
2845.25 DEFGKLM
2845.00 DEFGKLM
2844.75 DEFGKLM
2844.50 DEFGKLM
2844.25 DEFGKLM
2844.00 DEFGKLM
2843.75 DEGKM
2843.50 DEGKM
2843.25 DEGKM
2843.00 DEGKM
2842.75 DEGKM
2842.50 DEM
2842.25 DM
2842.00 DM
2841.75 DM
2841.50 DM
2841.25 DM
2841.00 DM
2840.75 DM
2840.50 DM
2840.25 DM
2840.00 DM
2839.75 DM
2839.50 CDM
2839.25 CDM
2839.00 CDM
2838.75 CDM
2838.50 BCDM
2838.25 BCDM
2838.00 BCDM
2837.75 BCDM
2837.50 BCDM
2837.25 BCDM
2837.00 BCDM
2836.75 BCDM
2836.50 BCDM
2836.25 BCDM
2836.00 BCDM
2835.75 BCDM
2835.50 BCDM
2835.25 BCDM
2835.00 BCDM
2834.75 BCDM
2834.50 BCDM
2834.25 BCDM
2834.00 BCDM
2833.75 BCD
2833.50 BCD
2833.25 BD
2833.00 B
2832.75 B
2832.50 AB
2832.25 AB
2832.00 AB
2831.75 AB
2831.50 AB
2831.25 AB
2831.00 AB
2830.75 AB
2830.50 AB
2830.25 AB
2830.00 AB
2829.75 AB
2829.50 AB
2829.25 AB
2829.00 AB
2828.75 AB
2828.50 AB
2828.25 AB
2828.00 AB
2827.75 AB
2827.50 AB
2827.25 AB
2827.00 AB
2826.75 AB
2826.50 AB
2826.25 AB
2826.00 A
2825.75 A
2825.50 A
2825.25 A
2825.00 A
2824.75 A
2824.50 A
2824.25 A
2824.00 A
2823.75 A
2823.50 A
2823.25 A
2823.00 A
2822.75 A
2822.50 A
2822.25 A
2822.00 A
2821.75 A
2821.50 A
2821.25 A
2821.00 A
Initial Balance was 17.5 points wide, and A period established the low for the day. Evolved throughout the morning as a trend-day transforming into a variation of a double-distribution trend day with a bearish closing range stopping indicating uncertainty (2834.00 appearing again as the low of M-period). I had two tiny winning trades today but I found that I was feeling out-of-sync today in my trading, going short when I should have gone long and getting out just in time with 4-tick profits. usually trend-days are followed by exhaustion and a bracketed market (in my limited experience), but today found us trending up in response to yesterday's selloff.
@9:06PM - VWAP, Fibonacci 61.8% Golden-Ratio, and Market-Profile POC all lined up. POC is 2845.75 according to market-profile (longest TPO count), I wonder where VPOC is in volume-profile. I know not everyone puts as much emphasis on market-profile point-of-control but it is interestingly close to VWAP here.
@7:22AM CST - E-Mini S&P 500s down 12.75, VIX at 18.53. Yesterday was a double-distribution-variant uptrend-day with a bearish closing range signifying uncertainty. Overnight volume seems decent and we worked our way back up to 2848.50 before rotating back down to 2833.25 followed by subsequent cascading rotations. Currently re-visiting the ONL.
@7:40AM - Market looks to be reacting negatively to news of some sort, Core Retail Sales maybe. No POTUS tweets so must be something else. I don't think I want to try jumping in with the crowd as I don't really understand the present situation.
@7:57AM - working order to "buy-the-dip" @2820.00 but I missed the small up-surge and its coming back down so I cancel out.
@8:26AM - Overall bearish feeling this morning, just have to be patient and wait for the right opportunity. Also must be aware that my stops might need to be a bit wider than the 8-ticks I usually use.
@8:32AM - Filled on one contract for the /MESM9 to go long looking to hit the up-surge on IB-development, but I close out too quick before I get my chance, just a +4-tick gain. Hoping we surge up into over-bought territory now so I can get in short.
@8:46AM - These are pretty big-amplitude rotations. I miss an opportunity to get in short @2826.50. Price is coming back I think i will let it rise higher first. Looking at low 2830s if recent behavior is a good indicator of the types of rotations to expect. This could also be a good opportunity to get in long as control transitions to the buyer, but long is riskier I feel.
@9:00AM - Hope I get a chance before I have to focus on other things, we are grinding away just below the ONL.
@9:18AM - I Missed the surge up to 2838.00 unfortunately, but I get in short @2833.50, immediately see the tariffs-delay news and regret it, I eek out a +5-tick gain to get out profitably @2832.25 and let the news settle into the market.
Step away from the terminal, you're doing fine. Even though they are tiny gains they are gains. Be patient and keep looking for opportunities and the bigger gains will come around with experience. We always put a lot of pressure on ourselves to make the big winning trades. I think I have to earn the big trades first by doing this over and over, c'est la vie!
Here's what the market looks like as I'm stepping away from the market:
What i liked:
- Squeeking out ahead in a market that is difficult for me to read.
- Good reactive execution when needed.
- Adapting my plan to the current market-conditions.
What I didn't like:
- Really awkward trades, feels like I can't get my plans to line up with what the auction is trying to do yet.
Goals for Monday:
- Get through "Competent" section of Mind over Markets
- Continue plodding through my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$21.25 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
4 trades of 60 entered.
I need ($578.75/56) = $10.33 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 4.2500 ticks
My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $5.31. I need to improve my risk/reward-ratio in the live environment.
My daily average is 8.5 ticks, well under my daily goal of 16-ticks. I just need to keep working on my trade-execution and management a little each day.
~~~~ HOMEWORK - sketched market-profile May 15, 2019 ~~~~
2860.00 KM
2859.75 KLM
2859.50 KLM
2859.25 JKLM
2859.00 JKLM
2858.75 JKLM
2858.50 JKLM
2858.25 JKLM
2858.00 JKLM
2857.75 FJKLM
2857.50 FJKLM
2857.25 FIJKLM
2857.00 FIJKLM
2856.75 FIJKLM
2856.50 FIJKLM
2856.25 FIJKLM
2856.00 FIJKLM
2855.75 FIKLM
2855.50 FIKLM
2855.25 EFGIKLM
2855.00 EFGIKLM
2854.75 EFGILM
2854.50 EFGILM
2854.25 EFGILM
2854.00 EFGILM
2853.75 EFGHILM
2853.50 EFGHIM
2853.25 EFGHIM
2853.00 EFGHIM
2852.75 EFGHIM
2852.50 EFGHIM
2852.25 EFGHIM
2852.00 DEFGHIM
2851.75 DEFGHI
2851.50 DEFGHI
2851.25 DEFGHI
2851.00 DEFGHI
2850.75 DEFGH
2850.50 DEFGH
2850.25 DEFGH
2850.00 DEGH
2849.75 DEGH
2849.50 DEGH
2849.25 DEGH
2849.00 D
2848.75 D
2848.50 D
2848.25 D
2848.00 D
2847.75 D
2847.50 CD
2847.25 CD
2847.00 CD
2846.75 CD
2846.50 CD
2846.25 CD
2846.00 CD
2845.75 CD
2845.50 CD
2845.25 CD
2845.00 CD
2844.75 CD
2844.50 CD
2844.25 CD
2844.00 CD
2843.75 CD
2843.50 CD
2843.25 CD
2843.00 BCD
2842.75 BCD
2842.50 BCD
2842.25 BCD
2842.00 BCD
2841.75 BCD
2841.50 BCD
2841.25 BCD
2841.00 BCD
2840.75 BCD
2840.50 BCD
2840.25 BC
2840.00 BC
2839.75 BC
2839.50 BC
2839.25 B
2839.00 B
2838.75 B
2838.50 B
2838.25 B
2838.00 B
2837.75 B
2837.50 B
2837.25 B
2837.00 B
2836.75 B
2836.50 B
2836.25 B
2836.00 B
2835.75 B
2835.50 B
2835.25 B
2835.00 B
2834.75 B
2834.50 B
2834.25 B
2834.00 B
2833.75 B
2833.50 B
2833.25 B
2833.00 B
2832.75 B
2832.50 B
2832.25 B
2832.00 B
2831.75 B
2831.50 B
2831.25 B
2831.00 B
2830.75 B
2830.50 B
2830.25 B
2830.00 B
2829.75 B
2829.50 B
2829.25 B
2829.00 B
2828.75 B
2828.50 B
2828.25 B
2828.00 B
2827.75 B
2827.50 B
2827.25 AB
2827.00 AB
2826.75 AB
2826.50 AB
2826.25 AB
2826.00 AB
2825.75 AB
2825.50 AB
2825.25 AB
2825.00 AB
2824.75 AB
2824.50 AB
2824.25 AB
2824.00 AB
2823.75 AB
2823.50 AB
2823.25 AB
2823.00 AB
2822.75 AB
2822.50 AB
2822.25 AB
2822.00 AB
2821.75 AB
2821.50 AB
2821.25 AB
2821.00 AB
2820.75 AB
2820.50 AB
2820.25 AB
2820.00 AB
2819.75 AB
2819.50 AB
2819.25 A
2819.00 A
2818.75 A
2818.50 A
2818.25 A
2818.00 A
2817.75 A
2817.50 A
2817.25 A
2817.00 A
2816.75 A
2816.50 A
2816.25 A
2816.00 A
2815.75 A
Yet another multiple-distribution trend day variation. How many trend days are we going to have in a row? Initial-balance was 27.25 points wide, and once again the A period defined the low extreme of the day. More value-area built around the 2855.00 region today which is at the high-extreme of yesterday's range. M period closing-range dropped 8 points as opposed to yesterday's 12.25-point closing-range selloff, so slightly less bearish finish. Total range of 44.25-points as opposed to yesterday's 33-point range, so wider range as well.
Today seemed like a day where the market used news as an excuse to break out to the upside as a continuation of yesterday's momentum and explore price at the upward edge of yesterday's range and a bit beyond.
@7:44AM CST - Prep took longer than expected. We are currently trading outside of yesterday's range so looking at a market that is out-of-balance to start things off today. Usually that means higher probability of dramatic price movement but there has been a lot of movement lately so it needs to rest at some point. In light of the last couple of days its been all Drama, Drama, Drama.
just noticed I drew all my lines on the ES chart instead of the MES, that's ok.
@OB - Looking to trade outside-in here for the initial-balance. We can rule out open-drive or open-test-drive type openings. Very low directional conviction, no OTF present.
@8:53AM - I am filled to go short 1 contract in the MESM9 @2877.00. I set a generous stop @2884.00 for the initial-balance volatility.
@9:08AM - Was not expecting this continuous upward drift in the initial-balance development.
@9:18AM - I do a stupid experiment that I know better than to do. I attempt to average down thinking that price has to auction back down here any minute. I go short @2880.25 one more contract.
@9:26AM - I am stopped out 2 contracts in the /MESM9 for -43-ticks. Never doing that again.
What i liked:
- Not much. Did all the homework and I executed on it and the market just did something completely different. I don't understand this serene behavior, but I learned (again) not to average down.
- Market told me where to go with my clever antics. Great lesson learned.
What I didn't like:
- My willingness to break my own rules just because I'm trading a size I can handle. Don't do it again.
Goals for Monday:
- Get through "Competent" section of Mind over Markets
- Continue plodding through my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. $20.00 Daily goal.
$-32.50 achieved.
-$32.50 current drawdown
5 trades of 60 entered.
I need ($632.50/55) = $11.50 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is -5.2500 ticks
My Theoretical Average for MES is currently -$6.56.
pretty much just do the opposite of today from here on out.
Don't beat yourself up too bad. We all slip. I've seen super consistent dudes slip a little. In my neophyte experiences, discipline comes and and then it goes. I've been Mr. Discipline since my last Epic F%&$ up. I guess the anger does help the lessons stick . Cull out the good from the situation and you'll give em' hell next time. Be well!
Thank you! I really love the MES right now, great way to make mistakes if you treat it like you're trading the ES. Just need to make sure I remember how this went so the next time I think the market "has to respond" I'll just take the small stop-out
After some reflection, I had a definite build-up of angst over the last couple days in that I was frustrated that I could only grab 4-5 ticks at a time in these massive trend days.
I simply tried to force the issue and make something happen. I also forgot the "patience" key I've been using that has helped me.
The past couple days weren't even really bad they were both profitable, I just wanted that big trade and I sure got it
. Cull out the good from the situation and you'll give em' hell next time. Be well!
. I'm sure that helps us learn in a more normal way.