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The VIX tells you all you need to know about the 'fear' component (speaking from my VX futures experience). I found an interesting 'index' last week on CNN: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Be careful out there with real money, as these types of markets tend to shred the little guys. And be patient, the markets aren't going anywhere.
Day 60 - getting my ass kicked the good old-fashioned way
@7:15AM CST - E-mini S&P 500s down 23.50 points, about at Tuesday's Low of 2862.50
@7:42AM - I am filled on a limit-order to go long @2862.25, stop set @2860.25. I was thinking that the low from Tuesday was providing support but it looks like I'll be stopped out. Every time I go live I start doing subtle little weird things, I've never traded off of a low from prior to the previous day before, but it seemed compelling here this morning since we are down about 25 points already.
@7:47AM - I am stopped-out for an 8-tick loss. Seemed like a good trade after 2-point drop @7:39AM, looked over-sold, but we had ONL lurking below.
@8:00AM - Price continues to plunge lower.
@8:40AM - working order short @2858.00 but I cancel.
@8:51AM - MOre sitting on hands, can't get a good opportunity to get in short here, I have a strong bearish bias but it keeps dropping without pulling back, almost got in @2848.00 but decided not to, and way back earlier @8:40 I thought anything lower than 2858 was too low and risky.
@8:57AM - I get filled short @2844.50 to go short 1 contract and I am almost immediately stopped-out at 2846.50 for another 8-tick loss. DFD="Done For Day!!"
What i liked:
- Got back to my price-action homework last night
- Back to making trades
What I didn't like:
- Made a mistake by trading Tuesday's low as support, it was an irrelevant level in this particular scenario.
- Really dumb second trade. Trying to enter trades to make something happen because FOMO it seems.
- First time I've had a negative expectancy in a cycle. I will not let it affect me going forward.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Just found out Tasty is offering the e-micros now. Switching to those tomorrow.
- Do more homework tomorrow and come up with a solid trading plan for tomorrow, be ready to execute that plan but be patient.
expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (0) / 0 = 0.0000 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.0000 ticks
% win = (0/2) = 0.0000
% loss = (2/2) = 1.0000
current cycle expectancy = (0 * 0.0000) - (8 * 1.0000) = -8.0000 ticks
progress towards challenge goal
$500.00 profit goal.
-$200.00 achieved.
-$200.00 current drawdown
2 trades of 10 entered.
I need ($700/8) = $87.50 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is -8.0000 ticks
My theoretical average is currently -$100.00 per trade. Need to turn around and head in the opposite direction.
You are exactly right! But the good news is that tastyworks is now offering the e-micros. What a relief! I'll be using those starting tomorrow! Good hearing from you!
Edit: I accidently stole your medal, I hope it goes back to you, you are posting excellent stuff @vmodus!
Edit 2: I just realized I usually post the current VIX level and I forgot this morning, everything is all off this morning it seems!
Lunchtime trading! +3-tick winner on the /MESM9! We're back, Baby!
Quick observations:
1) Price-action reading felt like sim, only took a quick glance, no hesitation.
2) Trade-management was my clumsy live-trading style so that was authentic and real, felt like I had to lock in any profit because of earlier losses to prove the universe isn't against me.
Key takeaways: So that was totally different. Trade-execution was like sim, no hesitation, no fear. So even though I feel physically the same earlier this morning, something psychologically changes where I don't trust my instinct and I search and think for the perfect trade. I now can work on my live "trade-management"...I can learn to persevere and hold on longer like I used to in sim.
Only able to execute this way on /MES for the time being, I have some thoughts on this I'm putting in tomorrow's journal. Tomorrow is very light so I will be able to trade, and I don't have any dread like I have in the past coming off losing days in the /ES, so this is a huge shift now that we have this product.
@8:40AM - Kind of a coin-toss trade on the MES to get engaged in the market, going short @2864.00 and working on execution and trade-management. I set a generous stop at 2868.00. I feel as I'm watching this that U.S.-China trade-talks risk has already been built into the pricing. We aren't really exploring any lower during initial-balance development and I think the absolute floor might be the ONL if we even get that far.
@8:51AM - I adjust my stop to lock in an 8-tick gain. Scratch that, 1 tick of slippage so I finished with a 7-tick gain. My ham-fisted trade-management is still in effect. This was due to a lack of "trading-endurance", I was getting within 4-ticks of being stopped out earlier and I just wanted to get out of the trade with a profit, didn't have the guts to wait for the bigger favorable excursion. I have to keep working on this. Also missed the corresponding rotation back up. I can see now that my mind is really frantic during live-trading, I'm forgetting my keys...I've been holding my trades longer in sim successfully prior to this and I've been wanting to watch for the corresponding reverse rotation as I hold onto get the most of the first favorable excursion which seems to put me closer to the reversal-point. But I'm too frantic to think calmly. These smaller contracts are terrific for letting me see this. I could see this with ES too maybe but I haven't been taking away as much meaningful info from those trades, maybe because when i lose the money is all i think about.
@9:41AM - I enter long @2830.00 after a steep plunge below pLOD. My initial target for entry had been pLOD but I'm glad I *watched what the market actually did* instead of act on *my theories of what the future would hold*. Big difference.
@9:42AM - I get closed out for a +9-tick gain (built in an extra tick for possible slippage). My ham-fisted trade-management left some money on the table but that's ok, I want to slowly learn this important part of trading over time. This brings me to +16-ticks overall thus far today.
@10:41AM - Working now, but I see Range-Extension to the downside in C and D periods, OTFS is strong for now, at least until we hear further news.
Moving forward, I could after working out a suitable number of trades with the MES and assuming good expectancy, there will still be the hurdle of mentally jumping from $1.25/tick to $12.50/tick, but I don't think this will be as huge of a cognitive leap since the MES removes (for me at least) the "STEP INTO THE ARENA" feeling I would get from switching into live trading from sim. You're already executing live, now you're just trading a different contract that has the exact behavior you are used to trading.
The MES also gives me good perspective on where I am at as a trader. I am executing ok, but I am a "micro in the micros", the smallest of fish in the sea, eaking out a few winning ticks. This is great, I have perspective and I know which direction I need to go and I know a couple key things I need to improve upon! :^)
I expect to see my expectancy improve and see a general P/L improvement. At some point I will start to sprinkle in an ES trade here and there but no schedule for when, I'll know when the time is right.
As for problems outside of my control, I cannot verify any. The tasty platform becomes less awkward when I'm not fearful, and I execute fine even though there is a big context-switch jumping from chart to the trade interface. But it didn't hinder my execution at all and that is the important thing. There are nit-picks...drawing my colorful lines for interesting price-levels is a pain, you cannot copy paste prices or RGB color values, you have to type everything in, that seems so simple to fix, just upgrade the charting tools. Still going to look at new platforms, but this really isn't bad for now and the price (free) is right. Just my humble opinion.
For those interested, here are the tasty fees for MES along with the standard NFA, etc which do not change:
note: with MES this profit goal is no longer really relevant but will track for cycle as ES. progress towards challenge goal
$500.00 profit goal.
$0.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
4 trades of 10 entered.
I need ($500/6) = $83.33 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is0.0000 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $0.00 per trade. Big improvement over yesterday though!
P.S. Sorry for lack of good chart pics, I'll get better at it as I become less frazzled with live-trading!
ALMOST FORGOT: I was using 16-tick stops here and both trades felt contentious, and on one or both I would have been stopped-out with
my usual 8-tick stops. This was an important change that I need to make note of. The diminished size of the MES gives me the confidence to trade with wider stops, but I don't think I should use them at all times. I need to learn to adapt my stops to current market conditions.
Nice way to put a tight bow on the week Snax! As you have stated, the MES does remove a lot of the psychological weight we bear when trading. I too have been thinking about the transition to the bigger contract and have come up with a plan: If I'm able to demonstrate consistency with 1 or 2 MES contracts I will keep increasing my position size in the MES to turn the heat up. If I continue to perform then I'll take the leap. Just my thoughts...I just had to expose them to air! Now I should probably get some work done. Be well amigo...Happy Friday!
MES being offered by my broker and becoming a viable product so quickly has dramatically changed things. In order to keep moving forward aggressively I've decided to break the glass and halt cycle-000003 since
a) I already broke a rule (only trading /ESM9 when in fact I jumped to /MESM9 as soon as I found out I could trade them), and
b) since the target goals were set to the scale of the ES I've decided to start a new cycle geared towards the MES but having the option to trade the ES if I feel the right opportunity arises.
I've removed the "live or sim" designation since I intend to try and trade live exclusively with the new e-micros.
I've lengthened the number of trades to 60 since I now can trade live without worrying about blowing up my account.
=== cycle-000004 ===
cycle-000004
strategies: my own price-action, my interesting price-levels, market-profile
cadence: 60 trades
target goal: $20.00/Day, $600.00/Total.
failure condition: maximum drawdown -$300.00.
size: option to increase size as I see fit at any time.
stops: 8 to 16 tick stops
Bonus: I may trade the ES at any time if the right opportunity arises.
Katas: Consistency, Execution, Trade-Management.
Instruments: /MESM9, /ESM9.
Intended accomplishment: consistent execution of my trade plan across MES and ES. =====================
Homework
sketched market-profile from Friday - May 10, 2019
Huge volume day as U.S-China trade news fueled volatility and price-discovery. 23-Point wide initial balance was followed by dramatic downward range-extension in C period and subsequently some more range-extension in D period. This looked like a down "Trend-Day" at first, however market sentiment began to change in E period as news came in that trade-talks were not terrible, and we bagan to retrace toward the open. In H period we acheived the first range-extension to the upside. Changed into a "multiple-distribution, multi-trend "Volatile New-Driven Day" to the upside. Sharp retracement during the closing range says market is still kinda "ehhhhhhhhh..." about everything. Final range of 67-points!
Sunday - May 12, 2019
Note: This is /MESM9 above, /ESM9 Gap is even more severe.
Upon market open tonight we have a big 6-Point Gap-Down to show market-sentiment is a bit skeptical. Keeping a close eye on over-night activity (I'll actually be sleeping) but in the morning I will look to see if sentiment has changed or continued down.
