Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Only had a chance to peak at the markets a couple times today. No trades were made.
I do miss /CL when I look over and see those big moves. Isolating to one product makes everything else seem exotic.
What i liked:
- Nothing because I didn't get to trade.
What I did poorly:
---
Goals for tomorrow:
Stuff I'm reading about tonight:
- Eurex
- Interest-Rate Futures
- FX Futures
- Comex Gold Futures
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10) / 8 = 10.25 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 4 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (8 / 12) = 0.66
% loss = (4 / 12) = 0.33 expectancy = (10.25 * 0.66) - (8.00 * 0.33) = 4.125 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$625.00 achieved.
$875.00 to go.
12 trades of 30 entered, 18 trades to go.
Need an avg of $48.61/trade, about 4 ticks
current expectancy is 4.125 ticks, I need to continue increasing the averate number of ticks I gain on my winning trades, and continue to keep my win-rate up.
(March 5) 4:45PM CST I missed trading the Tuesday market so I am doing some research for the Tuesday evening market. /ESH9 had a steep plunge right at the closing bell I see, I also see that the low was 2783.50, so I think that might be a price target for the evening open.
I jump in short @2787.00 (/ESH9) at market open but can't get filled. I adjust to 2786.75, then 2786.50 and finally get filled. I see the price coming back and I kind of worry about opening market volatility so I enter an order to close out at 2785.00 but I don't get filled, I keep adjusting until finally I get filled to close at 2786.00 for a 2-tick gain.
I immediately take a long position and get filled at 2786.00 this feels more like the way the market will trend. It is slow and steady. I adjust my stop-loss to 2787.00 to lock in 4-ticks no matter what because I don't think price is coming back sharply yet. I do the same up to 2788.00 but then there is a reversal. I am closed out at 2788.00 for an 8-tick gain.
That is enough for me tonight, I made one wrong read that almost cost me and then a somewhat reckless second trade that ended up being the better of the two. That was a lot of slow-moving drama-action for me. I will wait until morning to trade more.
March 6 - 7:17AM CST - Not much movement overnight. /ESH9 hovering around 2785.00, down 5.75 overall. VIX at 15.21, I have been meaning to learn how to gauge volatility via VIX and maybe implied volatitlity + implied volatility rank of SPY options to get a broader context, maybe to compare with harmonic rotation of /ES. Right now my stops are 8-ticks but I think it would be useful to gain a broader context for setting reasonable stops for market conditions in the future.
I feel like this market is just listless, waiting around for news. At these times there are probably better products to be trading but this is my lot in life for this challenge. /SIK9 had a big move but I wouldn't feel comfortable with the lower volume.
I would say the ebb & flow for /ESH9 is about 6 ticks at this point.
Some price-action at 7:43AM CST (delayed). Price settles for a while.
After a breadaway, I am filled for a long position @2790.50 at ~8:15AM CST.
I get some positive price-movement but I hold out for more and eventually I get stopped-out at 2788.50 for an 8-tick loss. I immediately open a short position at 2788.50. This is following the current market trend just like last night's combination trade. I feel this still falls into the realm of my current strategy because I am looking for price to break away.
I hold this one for a long time, setting a limit-order for 2780.50.
I am eventually filled at 2780.50 for a 32-tick gain.
Final results:
What i liked:
- Becoming progressively more detached.
- Feeling like the market is slowing down for me just a bit.
- My reactions to market behavior seem to be correct for short time-intervals.
- Starting to gain vision into how layers of market conditions come together to form an opinion, with some uncertainty added.
What I did poorly:
- Could have put together 4 winning trades if I'd taken profits on my third trade, but this approach would have cost me in the fourth and final trade. Maybe I could attribute it to volatility-skew, markets crash faster than they rally, the downturn was more heated than the upturn.
- I think I'm still trading with my original strategy but its blurring a bit when I make quick reactions to the market. I should make my strategy more explicit.
Goals for tomorrow:
- dig into more price-action strategy, try to uncover others that use similar strategy
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32) / 11 = 11.27 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 5 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (11 / 16) = 0.6875
% loss = (5 / 16) = 0.3125 expectancy = (11.27 * 0.6875) - (8.00 * 0.3125) = 5.2481 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$1050.00 achieved.
$450.00 to go.
16 trades of 30 entered, 14 trades to go.
Need an avg of $32.14/trade, about 3 ticks
current expectancy is 5.2481 ticks, getting closer, I need to continue increasing the averate number of ticks I gain on my winning trades, and continue to keep my win-rate up.
@7:00AM CST, I start the morning quickly with some quick research, I see the /ESH9 price break above 2774.25 and settle into about a 10-tick rotation.
@8:05AM CST price is plunging and I don't really know what to do after that big move, plus opening bell is right around the corner. I don't have much taste for adventure today sadly. Yesterday was a profitable day and I am feeling like being safe today. I will see what develops.
What i liked:
---
What I did poorly:
---
Goals for tomorrow:
- watch some of FuturesTrader71's videos
- be ready to trade tomorrow
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32) / 11 = 11.27 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 5 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (11 / 16) = 0.6875
% loss = (5 / 16) = 0.3125 expectancy = (11.27 * 0.6875) - (8.00 * 0.3125) = 5.2481 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$1050.00 achieved.
$450.00 to go.
16 trades of 30 entered, 14 trades to go.
Need an avg of $32.14/trade, about 3 ticks
current expectancy is 5.2481 ticks, getting closer, I need to continue increasing the averate number of ticks I gain on my winning trades, and continue to keep my win-rate up.
Typically a title like that would set off a red-flag because it seems like it would be a lot of hand-waving and vague fluff, but I really have gotten a lot out of FT71's other videos that I've seen, and this one was great too. Really concentrating on sticking to good habits and learning about yourself are some of the keys. And I'm trying to quantify and measure as much as I can that is within my power.
Hoping for some volatility-skew today. The market is feeling very uncertain, therefore I believe that the edge is to the downside.
I go through some different charts and settle on 1-minute charts.
I plot out some interesting price-levels to keep an eye on and then I just focus on market-behavior and price-action.
~7:30AM CST (delayed) I decide price should break through yesterday's low so I set a stop-sell for 2737.00 and get filled. I get stopped-out for an 8-tick loss in whip-saw action with my silly 8-tick stop that isn't right for this volatility but I am stuck with it till the end of this trading cycle, since those are the rules I made.
I don't sweat it, I know I want to go short here, I check that I'm calm, and I re-enter. This seems to be the theme of this week, getting stopped-out and then re-entering.
I am starting to track my losing trades and quantifying what the average stop needed would be and where it makes sense for my risk/reward-ratio to adjust my stop-losses next cycle.
Price is oscillating but it definitely favors the downside.
I am constantly tempted to flatten out to close but I think its safe to hold onto my position. I will adjust my stop loss for a small gain if price-action turns against me.
Just after ~8:00AM CST price gains downward momentum, I set a limit-order for 2731.00, just above a significant level (2729.50) where there might be support.
A few minutes later, I then decide instead to adjust my limit-order down to 2724.00 in case it turns into bear-attack any minute and I prepare to adjust my stop-loss (currently at 2739.00) to lock in a profit somewhere. Price-action is very volatile. It bounces around that 2729.50 level before finally breaking through to the downside. I adjust my stop to 2730.00, but miraculously, price drops below 2729.00 so I adjust for another few ticks. Finally I am closed out at 2729.00 for a 32-tick gain.
I come out positive 24-ticks for the morning.
It turned out to be good timing. There are plenty more opportunities so I am not quite finished but I am going to be patient.
I've also hit my bonus by gaining more than 32 ticks profit for the week. I am allowed to increase my size to 2 contracts if I like.
@9:00AM CST Price is pretty volatile. I am trading with 8-tick stops until the end of this trading cycle so I decide to just watch for a while. I am going to go grab some coffee, it is my most profitable week and I'm about to hit my target profit goal with 12 trades left in this cycle.
Final results:
What i liked:
- Good analysis and reasoning about current market environment
- Patient, stuck to the plan to get in on downward momentum
- Didn't get upset by getting stopped-out the first trade.
- Wanted to get more trades in after the first two.
What I did poorly:
- Stopped-out on first attempt but there wasn't much I could do. It happens.
- Will I have the same courage in live-trading? I need to know I can stick to my guns when I'm live.
Goals for Monday:
- watch some videos on the nexusfi.com youtube list.
- go over my trading journal and find areas to improve.
- work on some more areas in futures trading where I can apply probability-theory.
- be ready to trade.
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32 + 32) / 12 = 13.00 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 6 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (12 / 18) = 0.66
% loss = (6 / 18) = 0.33 expectancy = (13.00 * 0.66) - (8.00 * 0.33) = 5.94 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$1350.00 achieved.
$150.00 to go.
18 trades of 30 entered, 12 trades to go in this cycle.
Need an avg of $12.50/trade, about 1 tick.
current expectancy is 5.94 ticks, almost there, I need to continue increasing the average number of ticks I gain on my winning trades as well as continue to keep my win-rate up, so that I can begin to increase my size to 2 contracts while locking in my profit goal.
Dow crashed overnight but S&Ps and Nasdaq are up slightly. VIX at 16.29. At 7:00AM CST price is hovering a bit over Friday's high.
Really hard to feel bullish with the dow looking like that. At 7:38AM CST Price breaches 2758.50 but immediately slips below again. Price tries to break a couple times and is rejected.
At 7:40AM CST I jump in short @2758.00. Bad move, I misread the price action and its pushing upwards again. I'll probably be stopped-out here shortly. This same move keeps getting me in trouble.
At 7:57AM I get stopped-out as price hits 2760.00. I was not correct today. If I stop trading here I am still in good shape, I don't really trust where my head is at with this morning's market.
I was too amped-up to trade and just jumped in without properly reading the market behavior.
Final results:
What i liked:
Over the weekend:
- Did a lot of research.
- Learned some more about eurodollar futures.
- Learned a pin-bar "trick" which I haven't applied.
- Started reading the cme globex documentation
What I did poorly:
- Overly eager to trade the first price-movement I saw.
- Overly bearish because of the dow's overnight move which didn't translate to the short-term ebb&flow price-action I traded.
- Too excited to trade after waiting all weekend.
- Keep making a bad first trade.
Goals for tomorrow:
- watch some videos on the nexusfi.com youtube list.
- go over my trading journal and find areas to improve.
- work on some more areas in futures-trading where I can apply probability-theory.
- be ready to trade intelligently.
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32 + 32) / 12 = 13.00 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 7 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (12 / 19) = 0.6316
% loss = (7 / 19) = 0.3684 expectancy = (13.00 * 0.6316) - (8.00 * 0.3684) = 5.2636 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$1250.00 achieved.
$250.00 to go.
19 trades of 30 entered, 11 trades to go.
Need an avg of $22.73/trade, about 2 ticks.
current expectancy is 5.2636 ticks, almost there, I need to continue increasing the average number of ticks I gain on my winning trades as well as continue to keep my win-rate up, so that I can begin to increase my size to 2 contracts while locking in my profit goal.
Today I took a short position @2758.00, just before the /ESM9 bounced off the 2755.00 level (50% midpoint between Friday's high and first fibo extension). The ES really took off after that.
I am looking to find some kind of indication that could have tipped me off that it wasn't the right play but I don't think I'm going to find one. Obviously in hind-sight the long position @2755.00 at opening-bell would have been the brilliant move.
At first I was thinking that I have a problem with being over-eager to trade in the morning, but then I don't think this is really the case, because I am entering trades at times that have very interesting behavior. Last week I had two of my best trades this 30-trade cycle and they both were placed without a second thought.
I think I am noticing critical points in the price-action, which is part of it, but the directionality of the moves are difficult to discern. Last week my big trades came after busted first trades.
Maybe my strategy should be to take the opposite direction of what I think it should be, since I'm picking good entry points. I need to clear my head of rubbish like the news, boeing, etc. it never helps me and hurts me all the time. In fact I can say with conviction that the more I think and reason about placing a trade the worse I usually do. My best trades seem to be when I'm simply reacting, often when I'm a tiny bit ticked-off. Its like that fight-or-flight moment helps in some way.
I also still need to examine how to set my stop-loss depth appropriately. This was another 8-tick stop that could have been avoided.
Tomorrow I get to have another go at it. I am only 20 ticks away from my target. I need to make smart trades tomorrow.
I hope some of you got to take profits from the big moves in ES and NQ today!
Today I'll start using the simulator's time instead of the wall-time which will make the timeline a bit more accurate.
At 7:31AM CST, what is going on with this huge spike in /ESM9? Surges from just above yesterday's high up to the midpoint, I make note of the market's strange tendencies, I'm not sure how this is going to play so I watch it evolve. I wish I knew what caused that spike.
From a price-range perspective we have plenty of room on either side but this movement seems bullish.
I enter a stop-buy at 2796.00. but then I get the bright idea to just lower my basis and get in long at 2794.50 so I can potentially grab 6 more ticks and have the "protection" of that 2793.50 midpoint to cover my stop I hope.
I set a limit-order target of 2798.50 well within the 23.0% extension so that I can grab some coffee. We're up 2-4 ticks at the moment.
At 7:51AM CST we are sitting at BE, and then price begins to move against me. At 8:00AM we are back to BE. This has the same bad-timing feel of a lot of my first morning trades. I am now "hoping" for buying pressure. Hope doesn't get you very far.
At about 8:06AM I get stopped-out. These are killing me. I don't know why I'm so amped up to jump into this noise. Not with 8-tick stops.
At 8:36AM I jump in long at 2792.75 and I have a brief moment of panic before price surges upwards. I set a limit-order at 2798.75, but I also quickly move my stop up to 2796.75. I go to adjust my limit higher but my stop gets hit at 2796.75. I just wanted to trap a profit for today. I am not sure there was any skill involved here. ugh.
Final-results:
Almost to my target but I feel like I am making way too many bad first trades. I need to figure out how to get past this.
What i liked:
- At least I keep fighting. I am enjoying trading, it is just painful, but I can't wait to trade again.
What I did poorly:
- Always too tempted to open that first trade a bit too soon.
- Didn't achieve many of my goals for today, but I did do some research last night. Mostly read forum posts.
Goals for tomorrow:
- watch some videos on the nexusfi.com youtube list.
- go over my trading journal and find areas to improve.
- work on some more areas in futures-trading where I can apply probability-theory.
- be ready to trade.
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 16 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 8 + 32 + 32 + 16) / 13 = 13.23 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8) / 8 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (13 / 21) = 0.6190
% loss = (8 / 21) = 0.3810 expectancy = (13.23 * 0.6190) - (8.00 * 0.3810) = 5.1414 ticks $1500.00 profit goal.
$1350.00 achieved.
$150.00 to go.
21 trades of 30 entered, 9 trades to go.
Need an avg of $16.66/trade, about 2 ticks.
current expectancy is 5.1414 ticks, almost there, I need to make some smarter first trades and manage my account once I get above my target.
9amEST is when CL Open that sometimes in correlation with ES price action, or vice verse.
9:30-10amEST is amateur hour, Big Boys usually are holding off their trades until after this half hour.
As for today, ORL.OpenRangeLow @2791 -- looked below and failed, then held up 2792.50 YH.YesterdayHigh, not even bother to retest ONL.OverNightLow or fill today Gap;
therefore, Long is a valid direction for now.
Finally, ES is still in Rollover process... with a "ShortSqueeze" like yesterday, then today is just "Chop2Spieces" as both sides are still fighting.
I notices that you don't even trade the full hour of IB.InitialBalance or OR.OpenRange of NYSE session. May I ask WHY?
IMHO, I find the best setups during the first two hours and last hour in this session.
Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
Greetings, @TraderTS! Thank you for your response!
- Thank you for the forexfactory link, I have been wondering about reliable resources for news, etc...BUT...I have been adding just a few small bits and pieces to my trading at a time, I haven't even worried about news as of late but I think now is a good time to integrate that awareness into my trading for the next cycle coming up in 8 trades. I am working on a "cyclic" trading interval idea based off some ideas I've had mixed with stuff from FT71's videos, I am still writing it down and will share it in this journal before the start of the next cycle.
- Bad timing has been my thing lately, more about that below...
- /CL open is quite correlated I find, but I don't want to have it deter me from trading.
- AMATEUR HOUR. This is my lot in life for now, unfortunately!
I have only a constrained time to trade each day usually due to work, thus I have to make the most of it, it makes me a little impulsive because I want the experience making trades.
- OpenRangeLow, etc. Very nice analysis you gave.
- Rollover process, Short-squeezes.....stuff I'm aware of peripherally but haven't given their due, but I will learn to be aware of how they impact my trades.
- I didn't trade the full session because of my time-constraints with my job. I wish I could trade for my job, its what I think about every other free moment I have. Haven't found the right opportunity yet, but haven't looked very hard yet either. There are lots of ads for coding HFT which I could do but would rather be a trader.
I am rambling...
I really enjoy your critiques, always helping me to improve! You inspired me to enter a trade when time was slow around lunch, I wanted to get some different behavior to trade in, and it went nicely, very nice upward gliding price-action for 16-ticks. Actually hit my target for this cycle, I added an update to my earlier trades.
