Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:7,566 / 278
Created: by snax Attachments:214

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 214  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #221 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received


Salao View Post
It's been weird lately. Something recently has flipped in my thinking where the anxiety of holding these trades has been reduced but I've been having a hard time selecting profit targets. A couple of times my profit target was too far away and it cost me some points, a lot of points actually. I could have settled for 1R or 2R, but I'm trying to maximize expectancy. And I don't really know how to pick a target beyond 2R yet. It's crazy when you have one beast licked and then another one starts kicking your butt! Sheesh.

I think I've seen it in your journal for a while now, you have good habits.

That is great that your anxiety is reducing when holding trades, especially live!

With profit targets, I tend to shoot for opulent targets but rarely hit them because of my own "dog chasing car" strategy where I adjust my stop-loss up behind to block any possible loss and lock in profits. But the timing takes a long time to become good at. As you can see, any sense of panic and I'm turning a potential runner into a +4-tick close-out. This is where all those +4 and +3 type gains are coming from unfortunately. Need to sit on my hands and back away from the terminal once I'm in a trade.

I really think our brains have to re-wire a bit to adapt this risk-embracing mind-set.

You mentioned maximizing expectancy too! This is always on my mind as well, I think this is going to help us a lot down the road. Because if we make a habit of maximizing this now, then hopefully in the future if we are lucky enough to be trading size we won't be swayed by accepting 4 ticks just because its real money but we will stick to the bigger picture and execute for good expectancy.

This reminds me of TraderTS talking about looking for bigger swings for bigger profits and that is definitely the next step beyond once I get some of this short timeframe execution improved.

I could talk about trading all day it seems...hope I'm not boring you, have a good evening @Salao!


Last edited by snax; May 18th, 2019 at 06:41 PM. Reason: just phrasing
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #222 (permalink)
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: MES
 
Posts: 254 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 970 given, 554 received


snax View Post
I really think our brains have to re-wire a bit to adapt this risk-embracing mind-set.

This reminds me of something I read somewhere...probably on FIO. It might have been on Steenbarger's website... But I can't remember for the life of me where...The gist of the piece was that our brain is wired for survival and this causes us all kinds of problems. It went on to explain how this causes us problems with our careers, interpersonal relationships, etc. So I suspect you are right on in that we need to do a bit of re-wiring to properly embrace all this risk we assume on a daily basis.


snax View Post
This reminds me of TraderTS talking about looking for bigger swings for bigger profits and that is definitely the next step beyond once I get some of this short timeframe execution improved.

Yep I'm with you on this. This also reminds me of what wldman was saying today on the VWAP thread about pressing the hell out of our winners. It seems to be a common theme for the guys that have it figured out.


snax View Post
I could talk about trading all day it seems...hope I'm not boring you, have a good evening @Salao!

Not boring at all snax! You always have interesting perspective! Chat me up anytime. I too can talk about this stuff all day...In fact I think I wore out a bunch of FIO members already today! . Enjoy your evening snax!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
  #223 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received



Salao View Post
This reminds me of something I read somewhere...probably on FIO. It might have been on Steenbarger's website... But I can't remember for the life of me where...The gist of the piece was that our brain is wired for survival and this causes us all kinds of problems. It went on to explain how this causes us problems with our careers, interpersonal relationships, etc. So I suspect you are right on in that we need to do a bit of re-wiring to properly embrace all this risk we assume on a daily basis.



Yep I'm with you on this. This also reminds me of what wldman was saying today on the VWAP thread about pressing the hell out of our winners. It seems to be a common theme for the guys that have it figured out.



Not boring at all snax! You always have interesting perspective! Chat me up anytime. I too can talk about this stuff all day...In fact I think I wore out a bunch of FIO members already today! . Enjoy your evening snax!

I know, I am way too full of sappiness and trader "philosophy-ness" I feel

Always a pleasure, hope you enjoy your weekend too Salao!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #224 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received

Day 67 - May 22, 2019 - cycle-000004

Day 67

This week it is mandatory that I start to hold onto trades longer. This may temporarily hurt my expectancy (or not) but the time is now.

@7:24AM CST - E-Mini S&P 500 futures down 18.00 points. VIX at 17.34. FOMC Member Clarida speaks at 12:05PM and Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening.

Big move down in the early morning hours dropping 23.50 points now from Friday's close.

We're looking at a market that I have had trouble reading and which has been more volatile. We are also looking at an opening that appears out of balance, so potentially more risk/opportunity.

@8:22AM - Trying to remain patient as opening-bell nears.

@8:30AM - Very reluctant OB activity, price mostly just sitting around 2842.00

@8:51AM - I have work to do unfortunately so I'm going to have to cut this short.


= Retro =


Summary

=======
1. No Trades
=======
Final: +0.00-ticks




What i liked:
- Ready to commit to holding trades longer.



What I didn't like:
- Not much time to trade today.


Goals for Monday:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Get through "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.


expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7) / 10 = 5.4000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4) / 2 = 23.5000 ticks
% win = (10 / 12) = 0.8333
% loss = (2 / 12) = 0.1667
current cycle expectancy = (5.4000 * 0.8333) - (23.5000 * 0.1667) = 0.5824 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.6964 ticks
avg loss = 9.2400 ticks
% win = (56 / 81) = 0.6914
% loss = (25 / 81) = 0.3086
expectancy = (10.6964 * 0.6914) - (9.2400 * 0.3086) = 4.5440 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$8.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
11 trades of 60 entered.
I need (591.25/49) = $12.07 per trade ~ +12-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 0.5824 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $0.73. (LOL)

Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades.

~~~~ HOMEWORK - placeholder ~~~~

Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #225 (permalink)
Amsterdam
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Metatrader, Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: Degiro
Favorite Futures: ES, Bund, E6
 
Reettrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 41 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 60 given, 58 received


snax View Post
Day 67










Goals for Monday:

- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.

- Get through "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets

- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.

- price-action & market-profile homework.








Interesting log, as always @snax

Q: what are you refering to when you talk about probability theory homework. Iím much intriged.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Reettrader for this post:
 
  #226 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received


Reettrader View Post
Interesting log, as always @snax

Q: what are you refering to when you talk about probability theory homework. Iím much intriged.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Hey @Reettrader, I'm using a couple of books to polish up fundamental probability theory concepts (for the most part I remember it from college but I am rusty) in order to dig into some more advanced stuff after that. I don't quite know if it will really help my trading but it keeps me thinking probabilistically which I think is the right mindset

I'm currently reading and doing problems from these books:
1) Discrete Mathematics and its Applications by Kenneth Rosen. Used this in college, This only has one chapter that deals with finite probability which is a good start and its a really excellent book (and super expensive apparently), albeit very computer-science focused so if that's not your thing there might be better options. Has really excellent sections on combinatorics as a precursor to the probability chapter though and overall the problems and concepts and stuff are really good.

2) Probability for the Enthusiastic Beginner by David Morin. Just got this one from Amazon and hoping that I learn some new stuff from it, covers Bayes Theorem which I need because the other one does not and the next book I want to order is very "Bayesian". This one is inexpensive too.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1523318678/ref=sspa_dk_detail_1?psc=1


Stuff I want to order next:

3) Probability: The Logic of Science by E.T. Jaynes
https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes/dp/0521592712
Heard really great stuff about this book.

4) 50 Challenging Problems in Probability by Frederick Mosteller
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=50+challenging+problems+in+probability&i=stripbooks&c...C151&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_10

User Artemiso recommended this book for a question I had about trading jobs. I like puzzles and this one sounds very interesting.

Again, I don't know if it will make me a better trader per se, I think trading experience is the best for that but I think having more fluency with probability and math can only help me with the rest of my trading homework, especially figureing out what kinds of things are worth tracking statistically etc.

Cheers!

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #227 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received

Day 68 - May 21, 2019 - cycle-000004

Day 68

Yesterday got cut short with no trading, so I'm making an effort not to jump in and force anything today. I really hate not getting any opportunities so just trying to remain patient and calm today.

Also came to the conclusion that a good goal for me right now is to find ways to achieve a positive weekly P/L. If I keep my losses under control I should always be in the hunt to come out positive at the end of the week. So today is Tuesday and we're at even for the week.

@7:33AM CST - S&P futures up 15.00 points. VIX down somewhat at 15.39.

@7:59AM - Using 5min bars today instead of the usual 1min bars, I am filled short 1 contract in the MESM9 @2863.00, at the ONH and VWAP, anticipating price to drop back down toward the pLOD.
@8:07AM - I am closed out for +12-ticks. This is consistent with my goal here, I wasn't anticipating a runner during the pre-market/opening-call, just a nice move from the ONH/VWAP back down toward pLOD, I guess some would call this "confluence" of variables. I would say this was an ok trade. I could see this as a go-to opportunity in the near future in order to start mixing the /ES back into my repertoire for certain trades. +12-tick gain.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I'm not as sure about the corresponding rotation back up so I'm going to sit back and be patient.

@8:22AM - OB approaching, I think if we push higher right at OB and we fail to go very far, then I could see going short below pLOD. If we push down right away and fail in that direction I could see going long just above pLOD, I guess I have a pretty symmetric view of the market today. Trying not to be biased, anything can happen.

@8:52AM - I would like to get another trade in this morning but being patient and not forcing anything during initial-balance development.

@9:19AM - Narrow initial-balance developing this morning. Could be a more imbalanced market later with more risk/opportunity. Running out of time to trade unfortunately. Calling it here, though I will take a peek later to see if any opportunities are available.

final results for now:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



= Retro =
1. +12-tick gain on a nice little trade that I'm gaining confidence in. I could have held out for more ticks but the downside is that its just a small rotation this morning so I wasn't expecting more than 3-4 points depending on the price-action. Good trade.

Summary

=======
1. +12-tick win; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +12-ticks




What i liked:
- Good confidence. +12-ticks for the week.
- I'm glad I made a mistake earlier last week to learn from. It is a good baseline of stupidity for my current strategy that I can compare against so I don't re-visit it. And it was in the MES, perfect way to learn. MES is a great product.
- Consistent with the idea of being patient and letting the opportunities come to me. As I get better at this I can see more opportunities making themselves apparent with experience as opposed to chasing the market around hoping to make something happen.




What I didn't like:
- Pretty good feeling overall, would like more opportunities of course.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Start "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
- Learn something new (maybe Wyckoff-related?)


expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12) / 11 = 6.0000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4) / 2 = 23.5000 ticks
% win = (11 / 13) = 0.8462
% loss = (2 / 13) = 0.1538
current cycle expectancy = (6.0000 * 0.8462) - (23.5000 * 0.1538) = 1.4629 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.7193 ticks
avg loss = 9.2400 ticks
% win = (57 / 82) = 0.6951
% loss = (25 / 82) = 0.3049
expectancy = (10.7193 * 0.6951) - (9.2400 * 0.3049) = 4.6337 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$23.75 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
12 trades of 60 entered.
I need (576.25/48) = $12.01 per trade ~ +10-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.4629 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.83.

Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades. Keep grinding out positive p/l for each individual week as an ongoing goal.

~~~~ HOMEWORK ~~~~

sketched market-profile for May 21, 2019

2870.75 C
2870.50 C
2870.25 CK
2870.00 CJK
2869.75 CDJKM
2869.50 CDJKM
2869.25 CDJKM
2869.00 CDJKM
2868.75 CDJKM
2868.50 CDIJKM
2868.25 CDIJKM
2868.00 CDIJKLM
2867.75 CDIJKLM
2867.50 CDHIJKLM
2867.25 CDHIJKLM
2867.00 CDHIJKLM
2866.75 CDEFHIJLM
2866.50 CDEFHIJLM
2866.25 CDEFGHILM
2866.00 CDEFGHILM
2865.75 CDEFGHILM
2865.50 CDEFGHILM
2865.25 CDEFGLM
2865.00 CDEFGLM
2864.75 CDEFGM
2864.50 CDEFGM
2864.25 CDEFGM
2864.00 CDEFG
2863.75 CDEFG
2863.50 CDEFG
2863.25 CEFG
2863.00 CEFG
2862.75 CEFG
2862.50 CEF
2862.25 CEF
2862.00 ACEF
2861.75 ABCE
2861.50 ABCE
2861.25 ABCE
2861.00 ABCE
2860.75 ABCE
2860.50 ABCE
2860.25 ABCE
2860.00 ABCE
2859.75 ABC
2859.50 ABC
2859.25 ABC
2859.00 ABC
2858.75 AB
2858.50 AB
2858.25 AB
2858.00 AB
2857.75 AB
2857.50 AB
2857.25 AB
2857.00 AB
2856.75 AB
2856.50 AB



For opening up out of Yesterday's range, I really thought we might be out of balance and have a bigger move, especially with such a narrow initial-balance of only 5.5 points! I think C period seemed at first glance to be that big move, spanning 11.75 points and contributing 8.5 points of range-extension. But we never had any additional range-extension, and we only had a two TPO selling tail meaning price was accepted in the upper range of the day's profile, with the value-area being around that 2865-2866 price-level that has been important before (I just can't remember where/when off-hand, I have to look in my notes/previous homework). I'm guessing the VPOC is somewhere in that area as well if I had to guess (which I do because I don't have volume-profile tools ). Overall a "Normal Variation" of a "Normal Day". Unfortunately I missed the bigger moves due to work. Once again the low-extreme of the day was set right at OB.

Tomorrow it appears will be another day where we await further news. I could see big moves in either direction, but I'm thinking that more than likely the market might stay balanced around that 2865-2866 value area and it will probably be a bracketed market with a lof of inside-out trades.


Last edited by snax; May 21st, 2019 at 07:18 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #228 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received

Day 69 - May 22, 2019 - cycle-000004

Day 69

IMHO We had a "Normal Variation of a Normal Day" yesterday (always found that terminology from Mind over Markets a bit cumbersome), and now we are below yesterday's range. Potentially out-of-balance market heading into the open.

Good day yesterday. Big plunge this morning beginning at 5:30AM CST. Not sure why it happened, Trying to find an entry-point now. E-mini S&Ps down 12.50 points, VIX at 15.22. Using 5min bars again.

@7:51AM - That plunge left a 9-tick single-print buying tail that I think could be used as an area of support. Looking at 2851.50 or so as an entry-point to go long. Another potential trade would be short @2856.50 or so, using pLOD as resistance.

Totally sat on my hands as my set up came and went.
Reminder: You didn't trust yourself and missed an opportunity.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



@8:38AM - Looking for an entry-point to go short once the opening swing high maximizes but price is elusive, was looking for the 2860.00-2862.00 range depending on how price-action looked in that area. Now going to have to wait and see if there is another rotation back up. There may not be today.

@8:53AM - I am filled to go short 1 contract in the /MESM9 @2858.00. Poor timing, I am stopped-out @8:54AM @2860.00 for an 8-tick loss.

I still think this is the area to go short.

@8:56AM - I take another contract short @2860.00 this time. Lots of back-and-forth chop, I come within about a tick or two of getting stopped-out before price reluctantly retreats. @9:14AM I get the jitters and move my stop up to lock in 11-ticks and get closed-out. +11-tick gain.

Whoa, glad I closed out, huge spike!

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Ok, well not great returns but I hung in there. Gotta work on other stuff now. +3-ticks on the day.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).




= Retro =
0. Sat by and missed opportunities during opening-call (Pre-open) that would have resulted in profits had I stuck to my plan. Trust yourself!
1. Just poorly executed, I wanted 2860.00 and got FOMO and went to 2858.00. Remember this stupid FOMO-trade mistake that always gets me in trouble. Stick to my plan moving forward. These should be as obvious as the average-down mistake I made last week. Trust yourself!
2. Better, this was the original trade I wanted, and would have been even better had I waited for the ~2861.50 level. Overall was a good trade that was executed as part of my plan. Got lucky in that my impatience helped me avoid getting annihilated by that sudden spike up.

Summary
=======
1. -8-tick loss; /MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +11-tick gain; /MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +3-ticks




What i liked:
- Stuck to my plan after making some early mistakes, wound up evening up for the day and covering most of my commissions. Positive 3-ticks over-all.





What I didn't like:
- Didn't trust my plan multiple times, just sat and watched. Need to pull the trigger when these planned opportunities arise. Would have had a bigger day. But this is part of the learning process.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan.
- Start "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
- Learn something new (maybe Wyckoff-related?)


expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11) / 12 = 6.4167 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8) / 3 = 18.3333 ticks
% win = (12 / 15) = 0.8000
% loss = (3 / 15) = 0.2000
current cycle expectancy = (6.4167 * 0.8000) - (18.3333 * 0.2000) = 1.4667 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.7241 ticks
avg loss = 9.1923 ticks
% win = (58 / 84) = 0.6905
% loss = (26 / 84) = 0.3095
expectancy = (10.7241 * 0.6905) - (9.1923 * 0.3095) = 4.5600 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$27.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
14 trades of 60 entered.
I need (572.50/46) = $12.45 per trade ~ +10-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.4667 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.83.

Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades. Keep grinding out positive p/l for each individual week as an ongoing goal.

~~~~ HOMEWORK - placeholder ~~~~

sketched market-profile for May 22, 2019

2867.75 B
2867.50 B
2867.25 B
2867.00 B
2866.75 B
2866.50 B
2866.25 B
2866.00 B
2865.75 B
2865.50 B
2865.25 B
2865.00 B
2864.75 B
2864.50 BK
2864.25 BK
2864.00 BKL
2863.75 BEKL
2863.50 BEKL
2863.25 BEKL
2863.00 BCEKL
2862.75 BCEKL
2862.50 BCDEKL
2862.25 BCDEKL
2862.00 BCDEKLM
2861.75 BCDEKLM
2861.50 BCDEFKLM
2861.25 ABCDEFKLM
2861.00 ABCDEFIKLM
2860.75 ABCDEFIKLM
2860.50 ABCDEFIKLM
2860.25 ABCDEFIJKLM
2860.00 ABCDEFIJKLM
2859.75 ABCDEFIJKM
2859.50 ABCDEFIJKM
2859.25 ABCDEFIJM
2859.00 ABCDEFIJM
2858.75 ABCDEFIJM
2858.50 ABCDEFGIJM
2858.25 ABCDEFGIJM
2858.00 ABCDEFGIJM
2857.75 ABCDEFGIJM
2857.50 ABCDEFGIJM
2857.25 ABCDEFGIJM
2857.00 ABCDEFGIJ
2856.75 ABCDEGIJ
2856.50 ABCDGIJ
2856.25 ACDGHI
2856.00 ACDGHI
2855.75 ACDGHI
2855.50 ACDGHI
2855.25 ACDGHI
2855.00 ACDGHI
2854.75 ACDGHI
2854.50 ACDGHI
2854.25 ADGHI
2854.00 ADGHI
2853.75 ADHI
2853.50 DH
2853.25 H
2853.00 H
2852.75 H
2852.50 H
2852.25 H
2852.00 H


I am starting to see how to link these profiles together day by day to get a grasp on the continuous market behavior, though the behavior rarely resembles what I expect.

Most "Normal-Distribution" market-profile I've seen yet. Was almost a "Normal Day" except that for a Normal Day to occur, the initial=balance would have to hold for the entire day. Initial-Balance was 14-points wide, and we set the High extreme for the day in B period, with a single-print selling tail indicating that price was rejected by the other timeframe seller back down below ~2865.00. We did finally have range-extension, one TPO in D period at 2853.50, and then in H period when price probed downward but was rejected by the other timeframe buyer and pushed back up above ~2854.00.

My two trades both occurred during the first hour as the initial-balance was established, and seemed to be out of sync with the theme of each half-hour auction that they occurred in. Price was moving up and I was looking for the move downward which didn't occur until C period.

That huge spike occurred in B period just as I was done trading to focus on work.

Overall I'm bummed I'm having to cut trading short all the time. Tomorrow may be a lighter day with the upcoming holiday weekend in the states so I might be able to get more trading in. Friday I will be out of the market to see a friend.


Last edited by snax; May 22nd, 2019 at 06:54 PM. Reason: the 2860.00-2862.00 range, not "the 2860.00-2892.00 range" LOL
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #229 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received

Day 70 - May 23, 2019 - cycle-000004

Day 70

Yesterday I forgot a concept "Scene of the Crime", but I was working anyway. But that turned out to be a good SOTC play yesterday after the news that irrationally drove the market to spike up.

HUGE 33.25 Point drop overnight, we will be opening up way out of yesterday's range. Yesterday's value-area was roughly around 2857-2860.
2858 was the ONH acting as a resistance-level just before price began to plunge. Sticking with the 5min bars again today.

@7:54AM CST - S&Ps down 24.00 points, VIX at 16.35.

2837.00 is an interesting price-level this morning, looks like there are a lot of resting orders there based on how price is reacting there.

Tough day ahead for trading I think. Overnight inventory may be a bit too short so maybe there might be

@8:39AM - I'm a little too anxious and I go in long @2824.00 with a 16-tick stop thinking we'd reached the bottom and by 8:45AM I am stopped out for a 16-tick loss. Too impatient.

@8:50AM - after letting the market settle in a little more I go in long @2819.50. Price chops around and at 9:03AM I close out at 2824.50 to get out with a +20-tick gain before the ensuing downward rotation.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Final results for now:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



= Retro =
1. I should start making my first trade of the morning a mental-trade (no actual entry into the market) because I feel there is a pattern I have where my first trade is way too early for the move I'm looking for, and if I'd just make the mental trade, see where I would have been stopped-out, then enter for real a few ticks below that if possible, I seem to do alright most times on that second or later trade. I need to verify this in my journal entries though and that will be quite a chore if I do so.

2. Second trade was one of my best trades yet. I entered confidently after taking a loss, I was patient and held out for a bigger reward, but I kept in mind the nature of the current market behavior which was very bracketed, rotational, and choppy.

Summary
=======
1. -16-tick loss; MESM9 - 1 contract
2. +20-tick gain; MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +4-ticks




What i liked:
- Able to eek out some positive ticks with bigger stops. Had biggest trade of this cycle.
- Now I need to start getting the results of that "second" trade more consistently on first trades and throughout.





What I didn't like:
- Took some bruises along the way to getting to that better-quality trade.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan.
- Start "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
- Learn something new (maybe Wyckoff-related?)


expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20) / 13 = 7.4615 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16) / 4 = 17.7500 ticks
% win = (13 / 17) = 0.7647
% loss = (4 / 17) = 0.2353
current cycle expectancy = (7.4615 * 0.7647) - (17.7500 * 0.2353) = 1.5292 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.8814 ticks
avg loss = 9.4444 ticks
% win = (59 / 86) = 0.6860
% loss = (27 / 86) = 0.3140
expectancy = (10.8814 * 0.6860) - (9.4444 * 0.3140) = 4.4991 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$32.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
16 trades of 60 entered.
I need (567.50/44) = $12.90 per trade ~ +11-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.5292 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.91

For the week I am +19-ticks.

I'm pretty far off-track. Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades. Keep grinding out positive p/l for each individual week as an ongoing goal.

----- Homework -----

sketched market-profile for May 23, 2019

2832.25 A
2832.00 A
2831.75 A
2831.50 A
2831.25 A
2831.00 A
2830.75 A
2830.50 A
2830.25 A
2830.00 A
2829.75 A
2829.50 A
2829.25 A
2829.00 A
2828.75 AC
2828.50 AC
2828.25 AC
2828.00 AC
2827.75 AC
2827.50 AC
2827.25 AC
2827.00 AC
2826.75 ACD
2826.50 ACD
2826.25 ACD
2826.00 ACD
2825.75 ACD
2825.50 ABCD
2825.25 ABCD
2825.00 ABCD
2824.75 ABCD
2824.50 ABCD
2824.25 ABCD
2824.00 ABCDM
2823.75 ABCDLM
2823.50 ABCDELM
2823.25 ABCDELM
2823.00 ABCDELM
2822.75 ABCDELM
2822.50 ABCDELM
2822.25 ABCDELM
2822.00 ABCDELM
2821.75 ABCDELM
2821.50 ABCDELM
2821.25 ABCDELM
2821.00 ABCDELM
2820.75 ABCDELM
2820.50 ABDELM
2820.25 ABDELM
2820.00 ABDELM
2819.75 ABDELM
2819.50 ABDELM
2819.25 ABDEFLM
2819.00 ABDEFLM
2818.75 ABDEFLM
2818.50 ABDEFLM
2818.25 ABDEFLM
2818.00 ABEFLM
2817.75 ABEFLM
2817.50 ABEFLM
2817.25 ABEFLM
2817.00 ABEFLM
2816.75 ABEFLM
2816.50 BEFLM
2816.25 BEFLM
2816.00 BEFLM
2815.75 BEFGLM
2815.50 BEFGLM
2815.25 BEFGILM
2815.00 EFGILM
2814.75 EFGHILM
2814.50 EFGHILM
2814.25 EFGHIJLM
2814.00 EFGHIJLM
2813.75 EFGHIJLM
2813.50 EFGHIJLM
2813.25 EFGHIJLM
2813.00 EFGHIJLM
2812.75 EFGHIJL
2812.50 EFGHIJL
2812.25 FGHIJKL
2812.00 FGHIJKL
2811.75 FGHIJKL
2811.50 FGHIJKL
2811.25 FGHIJKL
2811.00 GHIJKL
2810.75 GHIJKL
2810.50 GHIJKL
2810.25 GHIJKL
2810.00 GHIJKL
2809.75 GHIJKL
2809.50 GHJKL
2809.25 GHJKL
2809.00 GHJKL
2808.75 GHJKL
2808.50 GHJKL
2808.25 HJKL
2808.00 HJKL
2807.75 HJKL
2807.50 HKL
2807.25 HKL
2807.00 HKL
2806.75 KL
2806.50 KL
2806.25 KL
2806.00 L
2805.75 L



This was a rough day to trade. The initial-balance was 17 points wide and the entire day's range was 26.5 points wide. We had downward range-extension in E, F, G, H, K, and L periods which sounds like a trend day but it felt anything but, especially with the narrow bracketed range and compact profile overall.

Big single-print selling tail, OTFS had some control today but it was tempered.

In L period OTFB seemed to say "we don't really need to go sub-2800 do we?"

There was a big sell-off overnight, therefore a big gap between RTH/NYSE. We're trading out-of-balance but in a highly uncertain manner that looks like choppy balance while the market tries to figure out what to do.

I don't really know what "day-type" this is, I feel it should get some kind of lovecraftian-homage like "slow slithering madness" or something like that. I'm pretty sure it drove a lot of traders mad trying to read the price-action.

I felt lucky to get out ahead, I wish I would have been able to trade longer today.

Tomorrow will be a short day, we'd better get our business finished early before everyone leaves for the long weekend in the states!


Last edited by snax; May 23rd, 2019 at 08:34 PM. Reason: adding some homework.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #230 (permalink)
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (June 13, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (9.8025 * 0.7043) - (10.5588 * 0.2957) = 3.7817 ticks
 
snax's Avatar
 
Posts: 359 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 770 given, 638 received


Today I took no trades, I went to get supplies for the long memorial day weekend here in the states instead.

Reason being, I really liked how this week turned out and I am feeling really positive going into the weekend. There were tons of mistakes but I always seemed to be able to scramble back and recover. The mistakes were fixable.

I have 2 actual(!) set-ups now that when the oppotunity arises, I am confident enought to trade with the ES instead of the MES. This is huge for me because I'm mainly a "feel" trader and I'd had doubts as to whether I would find any actual consistent "setups", but that's what a little bit of trading experience can do for you. I know they still only have a 50% chance of being profitable in any particular trade, but I have found them to be skewed to the positive side in the past.

I am coming up with a plan for how I could in theory get from where I am now to being a profitable trader, but at this point it is mostly numbers, but the goals are measurable. I'm still trying to find the right format to track all this stuff, for now my journal is ok, but I really want to find something like gitbook or some platform that I could create chapters for each week, sections for each day, and so on with text , code , charts, my market-profile-sketches, etc.

I think once I sort all this out, which is an ongoing process, at some point in the future I'll probably start a new journal in the elite section that has a little bit different flavor to this one, but I plan to keep adding content to this one because of all the nice PMs and things people have sent me. I hope as I improve my strategy I can convey it more clearly.

I still have a long, long journey ahead of me but its been positive and fun to this point.

Cheers!
snax

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to snax for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
S&P 500 VS S&P 500 Stocks at 52-Wk Highs Minus Lows (S&P 500 NH-NL) Gianni78bari Traders Hideout 4 December 26th, 2018 10:03 AM
CL & ES Stradegy & Journal Cerius Trading Journals 3 November 4th, 2018 11:50 PM
Daily (personal) trading journal & P&L - Suggestions? LaissezFaire Traders Hideout 16 August 7th, 2018 04:35 PM
Emini S&P CNX Nifty 50 Index & E-micro S&P CNX Nifty 50 Index ? md1933 Emini and Emicro Index Futures Trading 3 September 6th, 2016 07:54 PM
Euro session ES B/O & Range Fading with Volume Profile & Jigsaw T&S PeakGrowth Elite Trading Journals 124 March 4th, 2016 12:11 PM


Tags
adr, ai, amp, ats, average, average true range, brokerage, cancelled, china, cl, cl trading, cme, combine, commission, comparison, confluence, daily range, data, dom, dow, e-micros, emini, error, es, expectancy, fibonacci, fisher, futures, futurestrader71, historical data, how to, indicator, indicators, information, instrument, journal, last hour, level 2, limit, limit order, loss, market data, micro, micros, midpoint, momentum, news, nq, ota, paper, people, platform, poc, pro trader, profitable, python, research, retracement, retracements, reward, risk profile, risk/reward, s-p-500, sample, scaling, short, sim_trading, size, smart money, standard deviation, strategies, strategy, top, traded, trading, trading journal, trading strategy, trend, values, vwap

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:48 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432 WhatsApp Business, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2019-06-17 in 0.20 seconds with 14 queries on phoenix