Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal
Updated: Views / Replies:5,241 / 210
Created: by snax Attachments:165

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 165  
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Day 6 - February 21, 2019

Day 6.

Mapped out the chart with highs/lows, etc. S&P's down 3.75 points at @7:20am cst. Hanging around 61.8%, ranging between 61.8%-50%
Getting close to a bearish feeling as I watch this. Price seems to be struggling a bit. Tempted to put a stop in but I don't have enough confirmation yet. I do tend to enter positions a bit too early and end up getting stopped-out before the market is ready to make the anticipated move.

/ESH9 volume is at 222k contracts traded, behind /ZF and /ZN.

Completely missed my move, or so I thought It went down to 2778.25. Price oscillates back up a bit, then I stop to consider that would have only been a quick trade, in and out or else I would be stopped out right now.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Price is back up to 2782.50.

I interpret a signal to sell and jump in at 2779.50. I instantly regret it. I feel like I have a signal but I am also a bit fast and trigger happy here. I feel like it is better to be too patient than too impulsive but in sim-land it is easy to make excuses that we are "experimenting". I botch the stop-loss by entering it at 2783.50 instead of 2781.50 because math is hard ><.

I enter my stop at 2781.50 and feel sick. After a while price starts to drop and I decide to punish myself for my impulsiveness by holding out for more ticks. I manage to adjust my stop for a gain of 12 ticks and I'm out.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I watch for a while but I don't want to place any more trades, here's the chart as I step away from the market:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



And our results:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What i liked:
- Followed through on my signal even though it seemed like chaos.
- Hung on for 12 ticks, my biggest trade so far in this challenge.
- Results don't lie, I'm trading better right now.

What I did poorly:
- screwed around looking at volume and stuff while missing a trading opportunity.
- still having trouble knowing if my signals are legit, even though the results say they are, the randomness of the market right after I enter makes me wonder.
- still only really have the stomach for one trade in these current market conditions. I am feeling "lucky" when I exit these trades and I feel I need to work on that.

Goals for tomorrow
- Look for more ways to identify order flow without fancy tools if possible.
- Clearly specify my trading-strategy in concrete, actionable terms
- Think about more ways to make my trading strategy more explicit

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12) / 4 = 8.75 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8 ticks
% win = (4 / 5) = 0.80
% loss = (1 / 5) = 0.20
expectancy = (8.75 * 0.80) - (8 * 0.20) = 5.40 ticks
$1500 profit goal, +$337.50 achieved, $1162.50 to go.
5 trades of 30 entered, 25 trades to go.
Need an avg of $46.50/trade, about 4 ticks, current expectancy is 5.40 ticks, I am (barely) on target.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Day 7 - February 22, 2019

Day 7 - 25 trades to go on current challenge

I set some relevant price levels on the chart but my prep time is mediocre, I should be more prepared.

S&ps up 9.00 points @8:30am CST. Thrashing back and forth around 2783.00. Tests 2781.00 a couple times but there is support. I almost bite on a limit order at 2780.50 but I hold off. Glad I did, price bumps up a bit but drops severely after.

Now I'm thinking the market characteristics have changed a bit, but I think its just trying to find direction.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I am glad I have held off from jumping in either direction at this point. I think if it breaches the 2785.00 level that might be an indicator that its breaking out of its current range, bound at @2781.00.

Yesterday's high was 2798.00 so there is room to run by comparison after last night's drop, but high for the day is 2787.75 so I'm going to be cautious.

I enter a stop-buy at 2785.50, price is testing 2785, but it won't budge. This might be time to cancel and watch so I get out because this doesn't have the momentum I want, not right now.

Noticing my head isn't as focused as I'd like either, its been a crazy week of work and I need to focus harder if I'm going to trade, but given the current market conditions it is very hard to read. I'm out for now. Will watch the market but I do not intend to place a trade.

This looks like a range-bound day. I am going to stay away for now.


What i liked:
- Didn't enter a silly trade

What I did poorly:
- did not prepare as I do normally, again this wasn't intentional I think I am tired from busy schedule, so laying low is smart.

Goals for next week
- Be ready and fully-prepared to trade.
- Look for more ways to identify order flow without fancy tools if possible.
- Clearly specify my trading-strategy in concrete, actionable terms
- Think about more ways to make my trading strategy more explicit

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12) / 4 = 8.75 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8 ticks
% win = (4 / 5) = 0.80
% loss = (1 / 5) = 0.20
expectancy = (8.75 * 0.80) - (8 * 0.20) = 5.40 ticks
$1500 profit goal, +$337.50 achieved, $1162.50 to go.
5 trades of 30 entered, 25 trades to go.
Need an avg of $46.50/trade, about 4 ticks, current expectancy is 5.40 ticks, I am (barely) on target.

Reply With Quote
 
  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Somewhat Random Recap of stuff I learned this week



Quoting 
still having trouble knowing if my signals are legit, even though the results say they are, the randomness of the market right after I enter makes me wonder.

I found an article on Price-Action, it had a part that explains how I'm feeling about these ambiguous trading opportunities:


Quoting 
However, it is important to be comfortable believing that at every instant there is a way to structure both a long and a short trade that have positive “Trader’s Equations.” This is true even in the strongest trends. This frees you from only considering one direction and forces you to remember you are trading in a market where both the bulls and bears make money. It is possible to either buy or sell at any instant and make money if you structure the trade correctly. You also have to take enough trades; you can even lose on most of your trades if your winners are big enough.

Currently learning as much as possible about tape-reading, market-awareness, depth-of-market, order-flow, supply/demand, volume-profile.

Currently feeling there's something valuable in having a mix of quantifiable goals/habits/results along with market knowledge and a deft "feel" for the behavior and idiosyncracies of different products and their markets. Plus discipline (patience, lack of impulsiveness, clear mind, focused, aware). I feel like I had a good feel in sim-trading recently that could cover up for a lot of ignorance on my part, but its not and won't ever be consistent alone. I think results will get better by adding more market awareness with the right tools (mapping out interesting price levels, DOM/order-flow hopefully some day) and adhering to strict habits (tracking expectancy in ticks, tracking risk/reward-ratio, tracking risk-management, when it is safe to take more risk vs probability of success).

Thinking about how nice it will be to have a bigger account in the future, with wider stop-losses or scaling up with more contracts while keeping the risk-per-trade % the same as it is now. Hoping the habits I am building now will allow for that to happen.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
singapore
 
 
Posts: 10 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 13 given, 8 received

From your charts you posted it looks like you are trading almost naked with only volume added. I am curious what you are using for confluence on your trades?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jigg for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Thank you, jigg.

I had to look up what you meant by confluence, so I guess I'm not using anything. The simulator is pretty basic. Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

My quick scan says its a way of seeing when multiple trading variables or signal are present, I think I'm working on getting to this point where I have more signals, its part of these goals I've been listing in my journal


Quoting 
- Look for more ways to identify order flow without fancy tools if possible.
- Clearly specify my trading-strategy in concrete, actionable terms
- Think about more ways to make my trading strategy more explicit

The harder I think, the more I realize I don't know.

Basically I have been building around very basic feel for price-oscillation, adding a map of interesting price levels and trying to understand where different market players are poised to make trades but this is a guess. I also keep an eye on volume, VIX, and things like that but I am building slowly.

I am interested in learning more areas to research for signals, I have tried lagging indicators such as bollinger-bands and oscillators like fast stochastic, and they did not help me too much but I am not an expert in their usage.

This is very helpful though, so thank you.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Day 8 - February 25, 2019

Day 8 - February 25, 2019

Friday afternoon I experimented with a play on the Friday afternoon rally. It was separate from my regular trading and was just some free fun experimentation. I always want to keep playing around with different scenarios outside of my journaled trading.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I have had an adequate risk/reward performance over my first 5 trades, but I have been struggling with the notion of whether my signals are truly signals or if I've just been right for the wrong reasons, or maybe different reasons that I'm not aware of.

So this past weekend I did LOTS of reading about price-action, support-and-resistance levels, and did a lot of reading on the futures.io forum which I'm finding to be a fantastic resource.

I came away from this reading with the following logic to re-enforce what I've been practicing in my journaled trading.

First, I should identify "interesting" price-levels in the current market environment, price-levels that we can reasonably speculate that other traders are going to be watching, where we can get some sort of agreed-upon place to decide a product's future through bids and offers. ("interesting" may be yesterday's high/low, a midpoint between overnight high/low, a big round number like "2000.00", etc).
When the price of a product approaches or hits an interesting price-level, it can hang around, oscillating slightly in a range around the price-level, it can bounce quickly away, it can burst through, or some other more subtle behavior based off these three moves.

Risks we have when we enter trades around these price-levels could be:
- going long right when the price bounces off a level of resistance and we get stopped out almost immediately.
- going short anticipating resistance only to watch it burst through and stop us out.
- ranging around the level, testing it multiple times. It may breach the level by some number of ticks or turn away by some number of ticks only to return.

So how do we decide what to do without sitting on our hands missing trading opportunities? Well we can start by considering how many ticks beyond or below a price-level that we are most likely to be convinced that we have a decent probability of gaining a large enough amount of ticks for a successful trade while at the same time not falling victim to fake-breakouts, false-resistance or a very tight range that hasn't decided which direction to take yet.

What variables are there? We have
- the contract we are trading
- the current volume
- the current price in relation to opening price and ADR
- the current volatility (VIX, etc)

Out of 1m, 3m, or 5m what chart tells me the most actionable story today? What is the quality of my data?

VIX is at 13.73 this morning, up slightly. Another measure I thought of would be to get the implied-volatility rank of SPY options to get a decent gauge on current volatility for /ES.

@7:15AM CST, Currently fighting at the second fibo extension. Given the current market environment I decide 1 point (4 ticks) above this is a decent baseline to test my theory. I feel like this could be one of those 45-point days for the S&P. This looks like a trending day. If I get filled I will be aggressive in trying to accumulate ticks.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Stop-Buy filled at 2905.75, one tick lower than expected. I place a Stop-Loss to sell at 2804.00.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I can tell right away I timed this a bit early. I think we might have a lot of sideways action. Perhaps some big players are still building up their positions. WTI Crude Oil dropped like a rock earlier, didn't even see that. The CME simulator is buggy, its showing I have $625.00 Unrealized-P/L leftover from part of that earlier friday-rally trade which has been closed.

There's the move I wanted. I adjust as it surges up but I'm too aggressive grabbing ticks, price drops a bit and I'm out with only a 5-tick win. I wanted to shoot for 16 ticks.

This feel like I want to revenge trade now to make up for my hungry-hungry hippos style of stop-management. Staying calm. Hanging at 2807.00

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



This still feels like a trending day, if price were to drop back down to 2806.00 I would buy, I bet there is much support from bigger players there, defending their position. Maybe that is too conservative and I should think more like 2807.00. Now price is at 2808.00. I decide to place a limit-order at 2807.00, assuming that the support at 2806.00 will prevent me from getting stopped-out. I don't want to go chasing this though. Feels like such a big day, I want to be active...I may hold this working order open at 2806.50 since I think this will be a good line of support, and to lower my basis a couple ticks for revenge.

Another move, up to 2809.00. I think we missed our second trade, but if I wanted I could keep this open at 2806.50, if it comes back down I think one of two things could happen in my favor:

1) big players defend their position if they still have it
2) big players don't have a position but sellers don't want to test it so they close out at this level.

@8:35AM CST, I cancel my working order, go get coffee and decide what to do next.

@8:48AM CST, Price jumps past 2810.00 and I decide to stay out because I'm not feeling like chasing and I have other things I need to focus on (refresh deleted all my lines).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



And our final results, NOTE: These look all crazy because of the Friday-rally play. End result today is 1 winning trade with 1 /ESH9 contract for 5 ticks, $62.50.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What i liked:
- read a ton over the past weekend.
- I am feeling confident with a healthy respect for the futures markets, and I am immersed in trading and learning.
- Aggressively trying to move forward in my progress.
- Dissecting my current trading strategy slowly, starting to understand the different variables involved.
- trading "stamina" is improving, I have less anxiety and I want to jump right back in after I close a position.


What I did poorly:
- A touch aggressive with my stop-management to lock in profit, but given the market, that wasn't too bad a move, and would have been an even better trade with another contract or two, 5-ticks isn't terrible, just want to stay vigilant towards improving this execution skill.

Goals for next tomorrow
- Keep learning about all the pieces that make up my strategy.
- Look for more ways to identify order flow without fancy tools if possible.
- Think about more ways to make my trading strategy more explicit
- Read more, watch more, contribute what little bit I know to help others struggling like me.

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5) / 5 = 8.00 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (5 / 6) = 0.833
% loss = (1 / 6) = 0.166
expectancy = (8.00 * 0.833) - (8.00 * 0.166) = 5.336 ticks
$1500.00 profit goal.
$400.00 achieved.
$1100.00 to go.
6 trades of 30 entered, 24 trades to go.
Need an avg of $45.83/trade, about 4 ticks, current expectancy is 5.336 ticks, I am (barely) on target.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Feeling bad about missing this opportunity, I saw it coming but did nothing. Look at the strong buying support just under 2806.00:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Next time, I need to have more faith in my hypothesis. I was busy with other things but still.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received


Quoting 
I decide to place a limit-order at 2807.00, assuming that the support at 2806.00 will prevent me from getting stopped-out.

Even though I have placed a few small winning trades, I still need to be aware that even though I have some new strategies, they are basic, well-known and can be exploited:


Quoting 
An amateur stop loss level is a level that is “too obvious”. Famous examples are placing the stop loss just below and above a very obvious support/resistance levels, choosing a round number, using the famous moving averages or using obvious candlestick patterns as stop levels.

Professionals are very good at spotting price levels where the majority of traders place their stops and it is then easy for them to squeeze amateurs and trap their stops.

Good advice (credit to user choke35) from this thread said:


Quoting 
Obvious order levels and order types means that retail customers often place their orders in the noise
area around obvious support and/or resistance levels, often combined with "naive" order types like stop buy/sell.

And I read another adage somewhere that
Quoting 
A good rule of thumb is that the more obvious something appears on your charts, the harder it usually is to profit from it.

I am running into a lot of ambiguity now. I will persevere with my current strategy for the remaining 24 trades and then re-evaluate what worked and what needs to be better understood.


Last edited by snax; February 25th, 2019 at 11:13 PM. Reason: giving credit for quote.
Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Day 9 - February 26, 2019

Learned about some Order-Flow concepts last night like aggression and absorption. Like when the bids and offers are at a stalemate and some big-timer comes in with a 400-lot order and walks right up and drops it on the bid. That would be an aggressor. I learned about the difference between the data showing intent vs just executions processed. I currently have no tools to work with this though.

Did some research last night into my strategy, I found that this is very basic strategy which can be exploited by the more experienced. This is ok, I know I must repeat the cycle of growing, making mistakes, learning, realizing I am not doing anything innovative, struggling. This is my lot in life as a novice trader.

I am 6 trades into a 30 trade learning cycle. I am not going to try to change my strategy, what for? Will a novice like me be instantly able to execute a more sophisticated strategy? Most likely not. I must learn market behavior. And I must learn why this is not the best strategy because right now I have a decent expectancy for me. I am trading better so I will take small steps. I think there is something to this strategy, perhaps its just that as a beginner my capital isn't deep enough to set my stop loss 2-3 support/resistance levels deep. That is too big for me at this stage. I just want to gain consistency, so we'll plod onward.

I can definitely improve a few things, I may try experimenting with setting a limit-order for profit-taking vs adjusting stop-loss, depending on market conditions. Maybe on ranging days, try setting a profit-taking limit-order, on trending days, try chasing with stop-loss.

VIX is slightly higher this morning at 15.10. E-Mini S&Ps are down 5.50 points on the day but choppy-trending upward. Feeling aggressive again today.

For a choppy-day, one strategy could be to take advantage of price-oscillations. Tradeoff might be lowered expectancy, since we're chopping in about a 2-point range right now.

I feel this is a deep enough spot where we could test yesterday's low and grab 16 ticks. I am feeling aggressive so I put in a limit-order to buy at 2790.25.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



@7:48AM CST, Filled at 2790.25. Stop-Loss at 2788.25. Limit-order to cover at 2794.25. Up 3 ticks right now. I feel like maybe this isn't really a patient, well-thought-out trade. @8:05AM CST we are hanging around BE.

@8:07AM we are not looking so good:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I get stopped out for an 8-tick loss. For now I don't allow myself to place another trade on days where I lose so that I don't try to revenge-trade to make up for a small loss. They happen. Walked right into a trap. I'm done for the day.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Final results:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



What i liked:
- Learned about some order-flow concepts last night.
- Learned about some weaknesses in my strategy last night. I am making amateur moves by jumping into obvious support-resistance levels, but this is just one strategy, I need to keep pushing to understand it more, when to use it and when it is a poor choice.


What I did poorly:
- Still too amped-up to trade from waiting all weekend. Overly-aggressive wanting to place trades. If I'm this excited I should just do the opposite trade of what I want to do, probably a better edge.
- Did all the prep of a dog let off a leash to run in dog-park.

Goals for tomorrow:
- Keep learning about all the pieces that make up my strategy.Find out why it is a novice strategy.
- Keep digging into different charting (1min, 3min, 5min)
- Look more about order-flow.
- Be Patient. It was working.
- Investigate timing of these moves over previous charts.
- Read more, watch more, contribute what little bit I know to help others struggling like me.

expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5) / 5 = 8.00 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (5 / 7) = 0.714
% loss = (2 / 7) = 0.286
expectancy = (8.00 * 0.714) - (8.00 * 0.286) = 3.424 ticks
$1500.00 profit goal.
$300.00 achieved.
$1200.00 to go.

7 trades of 30 entered, 23 trades to go.
Need an avg of $52.17/trade, just over 4 ticks
current expectancy is 3.424 ticks, I need to increase the number
of ticks I gain on my winning trades, and continue to keep my win-rate up.

@8:53AM CST:

F@#% off!

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by snax; February 26th, 2019 at 10:23 AM. Reason: adding goal.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (May 16, 2019): /MESM9 - current expectancy = (11.2400 * 0.6757) - (9.4583 * 0.3243) = 4.5275 ticks
 
Posts: 283 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 479 given, 424 received

Pain.



Quoting 
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 5) / 5 = 8.00 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (5 / 7) = 0.714
% loss = (2 / 7) = 0.286
expectancy = (8.00 * 0.714) - (8.00 * 0.286) = 3.424 ticks
$1500.00 profit goal.
$300.00 achieved.
$1200.00 to go.
7 trades of 30 entered, 23 trades to go.
Need an avg of $52.17/trade, just over 4 ticks
current expectancy is 3.424 ticks, I need to increase the number
of ticks I gain on my winning trades, and continue to keep my win-rate up.

I keep going over these trades. I have to laugh at how hard a challenge it seems to make ~$50.00 on a product that is already $12.50 a tick. It practically stumbles into $50.00 before it even starts moving. Maybe I am truly awful at this. I feel like I'm in a glass booth with money blowing around, but I keep grabbing the one bill that is worth -$100.00. So many opportunities, even in slow markets! If you don't believe me, start placing trades, you will make or lose money fast.

I like to spot opportunities and jump right in and I like to be aggressive. I like wide stops. Before I started journaling I always had wide stops. I won a lot. Then I thought that will be too scary with my live account, better set the stops at 8-ticks. I barely had losing days with those wide stops, and when I did, they didn't make a dent. 2 contracts felf fine, I never blew up.

I was a tad reckless but never bet the farm, always had control. This is how I liked to trade. No fear, jump in, fight. If I win, if I lose, doesn't matter, I get back in next opportunity and I almos always made the money back in chunks. Do successful traders have this freedom?

I feel like good trading is almost there, just outside of my grasp. My current challenge isn't really going that badly, but its not going great.

The point of this challenge is to stick to the strategy I laid out in the beginning, so I am not changing until I see the results after 30 trades. 8-tick stops, one contract at a time, pick trades that fit the strategy i'm testing. If it seems to work then we'll test it more severely in the next challenge.

I'm not sure why this is so painful, it just is, I want to be live.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to snax for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal




Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
S&P 500 VS S&P 500 Stocks at 52-Wk Highs Minus Lows (S&P 500 NH-NL) Gianni78bari Traders Hideout 4 December 26th, 2018 10:03 AM
CL & ES Stradegy & Journal Cerius Trading Journals 3 November 4th, 2018 11:50 PM
Daily (personal) trading journal & P&L - Suggestions? LaissezFaire Traders Hideout 16 August 7th, 2018 04:35 PM
Emini S&P CNX Nifty 50 Index & E-micro S&P CNX Nifty 50 Index ? md1933 Emini and Emicro Index Futures Trading 3 September 6th, 2016 07:54 PM
Euro session ES B/O & Range Fading with Volume Profile & Jigsaw T&S PeakGrowth Elite Trading Journals 124 March 4th, 2016 12:11 PM


Tags
adr, ai, amp, ats, average, average true range, brokerage, cancelled, china, cl, cl trading, cme, combine, commission, comparison, confluence, daily range, data, dom, dow, e-micros, emini, error, es, expectancy, fibonacci, fisher, futures, futurestrader71, historical data, how to, indicator, indicators, information, instrument, journal, last hour, level 2, limit, limit order, loss, market data, micro, micros, momentum, news, nq, paper, people, platform, poc, profitable, python, research, retracement, retracements, reward, risk profile, risk/reward, s-p-500, sample, scaling, short, sim_trading, size, smart money, standard deviation, strategies, strategy, top, traded, trading, trading journal, trading strategy, trend, values, vwap

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:59 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432 WhatsApp Business, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2019-05-17 in 0.16 seconds with 14 queries on phoenix