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Don't get me wrong I was and am inspired by your journal and journey into trading. It's a reason I started my own journal. Which has helped me tremendously I think. I feel we are more less at the seem point in this thing. Good luck!
@7:26AM - up a few points in the S&Ps, VIX at 12.36. Bit of a dip, upward rotation might be peaking.
@8:20AM - pretty active opening-call. I probably won't have time to trade as I need to focus on work.
Summary
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NO TRADES
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Final: ---
What i liked:
- apparently you can use investor-r/t and a good data-feed from DTN IQ-Feed for pretty cheap through Stage5 Trading, need to investigate further.
- Purchased copies of "Mind over Markets" and "Reading Price Charts Bar-by-Bar".
What I didn't like:
- Would have liked to get in on the trading action today.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (I'm STILL way behind)
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$1375.00 achieved.
-$300.00 current drawdown
14 trades of 30 entered.
I need (1625.00/16) = $101.56 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 6.8574 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $85.72 per trade. I am behind, and I also have a -$300.00 drawdown I need to repair.
Oh I actually found your post funny! I think its true in a lot of ways. I tend to get very impatient and my form of masochism seems to be throwing myself into these "baptisms by fire"
Good luck on your journey, I will be sure to read your journal too, and thank you!
Day 49 - Will we "break on through to the other side"
@7:00AM CST - TRIPLE-TOP for @2939.75!!! We've been hovering just under that level all ON-session. I am looking for futures price to break through today but I am going to have to be careful not to try to force anything or get too narrow-focused, must trade what the market gives us.
The CME/CQG-simulator is janky today, taking a long time to switch between 5- and 1-minute bar-types. I hope it holds up today.
@7:20AM - just some harmonic-rotation. Price is flat.
possible scenarios in play - one could be pushing down to re-test ONL @2931.75, chopping around, coming back up to 2936.00, then pushing up for the big showdown @2939.75, major chop-action then surges through up to ~@2947, minor retracement, support holds @2939.75 and then upward to [email protected].
Another scenario is price gets rejected @2939.75 and we auction back down to re-test all the price-levels that sort of got bulldozed through yesterday, maybe to about midpoint between pHOD/pLOD.
This gives me an idea: decision-trees for price-paths. Doesn't make much sense now but making note of it.
@8:18AM - rotating around 2936.00
@8:33AM - I am pretty confident in going long at this point as I think we'll at least re-test the 2939.75 level. I get filled for 1 contract long @2933.75. Stop @2931.75.
@8:40AM - I adjust my stop up to 2935.75. Price declines and I am closed-out for an 8-tick gain.
@9:04AM - I see another opportunity to see if we can push higher, I open a long position for 1 contract @2933.50. I adjust my stop up to 2935.50 in order to lock in an 8-tick gain, I have a chance to adjust up to 2936.50 but I hold off hoping for a patient, longer run. Price declines again and I am closed out for another 8-tick gain.
What i liked:
- Waited patiently for the "second" settling. I've noticed I tend to jump in at the first sign of a signal, but during OB there is a lot of volatility and I have more success waiting for a potential second surge/chop to settle.
- My copies of "Mind over Markets" and "Reading Price Charts Bar-by-Bar" should be arriving today.
- Neat to see expectancy for current cycle converging with accumulated expectancy, (though only because my current cycle expectancy keeps dropping as expected)...though must keep trying to push it higher.
What I didn't like:
- trade-management is still a little ham-fisted, though I have come a long way from the 2-tick trader i used to be before joining nexusfi.com. I like that my struggle now is to get beyond 8-ticks more consistently! Must get more of those favorable excursions.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (I'm STILL way behind)
- READ/WATCH/LEARN
- EDIT: Try to figure out WHAT I'm seeing on winning vs losing trades in more concrete terms, I always look back and it doesn't look all that great from the screenshot, I always feel like I jumped in a car, wrapped it around a telephone poll and found $100 on the ground as I stumbled out.
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$1575.00 achieved.
-$100.00 current drawdown
16 trades of 30 entered.
I need (1425.00/14) = $101.79 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 7.0000 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $87.50 per trade. I am behind, and I also have a -$100.00 drawdown I need to repair.
p.s. my bias was strongly bullish, i was not neutral coming into the market like i wanted to be, didn't even consider it, remember earnings can change the market environment quickly.
@7:10AM CST - Since ~5:30AM we've been in a steady upward 6-point rotation from OL.
Looking to be patient today. E-mini S&Ps up 2.50 points, and VIX at 13.18.
@8:20AM - Opening up right around 2930.50 it looks like, for an OAIR. Probably going to be a choppy mess on the open but I will stay neutral and patient.
@8:38 - 2921.00 looking like a favorable place to enter, but I will wait, this might be an "open-drive" that might not be completed. Going to let things shake out a little longer. So how do I play this if things have already bottomed-out and we drift into one of those slow, languid trend-days upward? Seems unlikely, I think in the current moment we are experiencing some consolidation, we may in fact push further down at which time it might be a good chance at a reversal. Other scenarios are a pullback up to PLOD that gets rejected, then we could go short. Down to 2019.75, I'm not seeing anything in the price-action that says to go long yet. But now seeing higher-lows stacking, ugh. 2921.00 was in fact a decent entry if I'd taken it.
@9:04AM - I think we've tested above to see if we want to break back into yesterday's range and the price-action appears to be stalling, I see an opportunity to go short. I enter a working-order to go short 1 contract @2927.00. Stop set @2929.00.
Per yesterday's "ham-fisted" trade-management, I am attempting to keep my paws off the stop-adjustment for a while. We had just visited 2921.00 so it is possible we will drop back to that level. Seeing "lower-lows" stacking up now.
@9:14AM - Price plunges fast and I just flatten with a market-order because this is big for me. I get closed out @2917.75, for a +37-tick gain. I only think I got that much because I stubbornly refused to touch anything and wasn't afraid to lose. Lesson learned about trusting your edge.
What i liked:
- Finally stopped adjusting my stop too close to current price and getting closed out early on winners.
- Most patient I've been, waited for the right opportunity, felt a complete lack of impulse, it was hard to do.
What I didn't like:
- Exhausted, didn't sleep much.
- I don't know what I'm going to do from a live charting/data standpoint for e-micros.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Probability Theory Homework
- Price-Action/Market-Profile Homework (come up with more definitive tasks for this)
- try to gather a statistic on one stat
- research costs for live platform (charting/data)
- READ/WATCH/LEARN
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$2037.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
17 trades of 30 entered.
I need (962.50/13) = $74.04 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 8.7646 ticks
My theoretical average is currently $109.56 per trade. I am on track.
Nice trade Snax! And again, kudos on the journal, it's a good read.
Indeed. This resonates with me today. I've isolated R/R in my trading as the one variable to hone in on and improve. My 'reward' is down to only a small fraction of risk! I want to improve in that area so I DO have confidence to 'trust the edge' and maybe I can let these things run out a little without having a stroke every time a trade is on.
