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I early-exited my first live cycle a little too quickly, after just 5 trades, out of frustration with an admittedly choppy market with little directional conviction that we've been having, combined with shaky confidence. I ended on a positive P/L.
If we compare the first five trades of the previous sim-traded cycle with the live-traded cycle we have:
Sim-traded cycle-000000 expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 7 + 8 + 12) / 4 = 8.75 ticks
avg loss = (8) / 1 = 8 ticks
% win = (4 / 5) = 0.80
% loss = (1 / 5) = 0.20
expectancy = (8.75 * 0.80) - (8 * 0.20) = 5.40 ticks
$1500 profit goal
$337.50 achieved
$1162.50 to go.
5 trades of 30 entered.
Need an avg of $46.50/trade, about 4 ticks, current expectancy is 5.40 ticks, I am (barely) on target.
vs.
Live-traded cycle-000001
expectancy & progress towards challenge goal
avg win = (8 + 12 + 8) / 3 = 9.3333 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (3 / 5) = 0.60
% loss = (2 / 5) = 0.40
expectancy = (9.3333 * 0.60) - (8.00 * 0.40) = 2.4000 ticks
$3000.00 profit goal.
$150.00 achieved.
$2850 to go.
-$100.00 current drawdown
5 trades of 30 entered.
I need (2850.00/25) = $114.00 per trade to hit my target.
As you can see there was really only a difference of one trade. My goal was double my first goal, which combined with the switch from sim to live shouldn't matter but I think I put extra pressure on myself to keep up the pace of $100/trade on average to match my goal.
these were the details of the past cycle: === cycle-000001 ===
cycle-000001 - more strenuous test of first cycle "auspicious sunrise" strategy
strategies: price-action with interesting price-levels
cadence: 30 trades
target goal: $3000.00
failure condition: max drawdown -$700.00
size: 1 contract per trade
stops: 8-tick stop-loss depth
Bonus: if gains exceed $400.00 in a week, I have the option to increase size to 2 contracts per trade, as long as I keep making winning trades. If I exceed my target goal I can increase size as I see fit as long as I don't put the achievement of the target goal in jeopardy.
Kata-Haiku: ice cold detachment; now remove impulsiveness; think beyond 8-ticks.
Liveness: Live
Instruments: /ESM9 only.
starting accumulated expectancy after 30 trades: /ESM9: (12.00 * 0.6667) - (8.00 * 0.3333) - 5.334 ticks
you are not as far off as you think. =====================
This week I will start cycle-000002 and it will be sim-traded, with the goal of adding more statistics to back my strategy. I will stay in sim and accumulate confidence with statistical proof as long as it takes to go back to live confident and ready to trade. I will give myself an easier goal when I go back to live as well.
The details for the next cycle are:
=== cycle-000002 ===
cycle-000002 - aggressive "auspicious sunrise" strategy with variable stop-loss depth and market-profile analysis
strategies: price-action, interesting price-levels, concepts from "mind over markets", variable stop-loss depths
cadence: 30 trades
target goal: $3000.00
failure condition: max drawdown -$700.00
size: 1 contract per trade
stops: 8-16 tick stop-loss depth
Bonus: if gains exceed $400.00 in a week, I have the option to increase size to 2 contracts per trade, as long as I keep making winning trades.
If I exceed $700 in a week I can increase to 3 contracts, if $800, 4, etc.
If I exceed my target goal I can increase size as I see fit as long as I don't put the achievement of the target goal in jeopardy.
Katas: Build a complete picture of current market context before trading, build consistency, don't beat yourself up, think 16+ ticks..
Live or Sim: Sim
Instruments: /ESM9 only.
starting accumulated expectancy after 30 trades: /ESM9: (11.6522 * 0.6571) - (8.00 * 0.3429) = 4.9135 ticks
get out of your own head. =====================
@7:10AM CST price is located @2893.75, E-Mini S&Ps down 2.50 and VIX at 13.45.
@7:30AM price starts to dip a bit, I have a plan, we are most likely looking at an "Open Auction in Range" opening with the way things are looking right now, which means the recent lack of directional conviction might carry over into today's RTH/NYSE session.
@8:34AM I go short @2890.50 because we've been auctioning around in range, we are underneath the value area from Friday's profile, and because its always easier for me to make trading decisions in sim. i was using 1minute-bars & there was also a green pinbar just before I went short, this is something I've had my eye on and it seems to work as a signal in sim.
@8:47AM I close out for a +20-tick gain. Good start to the cycle.
What i liked:
- Did some research and found that Investor/RT runs natively on macOS, so that is one platform I will most likely test out, though the subscription fees might be a bit steep, don't really know yet.
- Good start to the cycle, felt clear and decisive.
What I didn't like:
- I have a really negative association with live-trading that I need to overcome. Those micros can't come soon enough.
Goals for tomorrow:
- start using python3/jupyter-notebooks for trading research
- track all the stats!
- read
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$250.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
1 trade of 30 entered.
I need (2750.00/29) = $94.83 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 20.0000 ticks
I was going to comment on your thread as well, I was wondering what signal you saw, you described "measured moves", I am unfamiliar with those, I will have to research them. I saw there was a nice rotation back the other way right after this too, which continued after but I was busy with work.
I am finding that in sim-trading it is easier for me to combine the market-"analysis" with the price-action just "looking right" and jump right in without hesitating. I saw that "zipper" kind of action around 7:45-8:00 and when it tried to move up a bit and came right back down I just saw the (two!) pinbars where price was getting pushed down by sellers right at OB (I don't even think I noticed the first one in the moment) but I saw the green one and felt it was ready to drop a bit.
In live-trading, I am thinking too much, I am wasting opportunities wondering "is this really a signal?" like that pinbar would have made me just second-guess myself. That's one of many mistakes I'm making, I almost want to alternate between sim and live to try to blur the lines, but I'm holding off for now and staying with sim for this cycle.
I also thought that price was going to head lower, this was good timing we had, though I wish I could have jumped in somewhere on the upward rotation!
This looks like a "Normal-Variation Day". We opened up just under the value area of Friday, so I think what happened was the market wanted to test to see if there was any buying support at Opening-Bell by pushing price downward, with strong "Other Timeframe Buyer" conviction showing up at 2884.25. This initial-balance established one of the day's extremes. Closing-Range was bullish.
I guess my signal was the breakout beneath the globex trading range that preceded the move we jumped on. The bears were having their way with things since the Sunday night reversal. The bulls seemed subdued so I figured the better probability trade was getting short. I set a sell stop one tick below that trading range. And to our benefit (), the bulls stepped aside for a bit.
I based that measured move on the bear breakout bar and it worked out. I'm no expert on the subject, in fact it's a new concept to me, but to my understanding measured move targets are an estimation of where the algos are taking profits. It can be measured off of a breakout bar, a leg in a trend, trading range width, etc. It seems to me that there are a lot of places online that don't give much credence to measured moves. But Al Brooks has a lot of great information on measured moves and how to implement them.
Aaaaaand the mental side of trading! Transferring sim results to live would probably make a great thread discussion. I'm definitely curious to know other's thoughts on that matter. I was tempted to start sharing my own here...but wouldn't want to overstay my welcome.
You are always welcome, share away! I think your analysis is great. I looked to see if the Chicago Public Library had a copy of the Al Brooks "Reading Price Charts Bar-by-Bar" book since I found "Mind over Markets" from the library. They didn't have it and I'm reading a lot of mixed reviews, nothing too negative just mostly that it can be difficult to follow, but I will have to get around to reading it eventually.
A neat thing (for some definition of neat, more like confusing) is I'm finding different kinds of price-action set-ups (during "homework review") in 1, 3, and 5-minute bars. Now I know why some people have 6 screens ><
@7:15AM CST - Preparation took longer this morning. Price dropping toward OL. E-mini S&Ps down 4.25. VIX at 13.44. I want to see how we react to [email protected], if we stop at 2893.75 or proceed down through OL may be very telling.
We are once again in almost a carbon-copy of yesterday, in yesterday's range, at yesterday's value area or upper section of yesterday's value area.
I think short @2891.50 might be a good trade if we start moving swiftly away from OL.
Currently at 2892.50, working order in for short @2891.50, but OL is keeping things steady for now.
@7:30AM we are filled short @2891.50. I am a little worried that I've gotten in at the bottom of a small rotation but we will see. 8-tick stop @2893.50. Now we will just let the market do its thing.
seeing some support around 2891.00, we just need to push through that and we should make it down to test [email protected]. Target limit-order for 2884.50. still seeing buying support though.
@7:39AM Bunch of chop. Currently 2-ticks in our favor.
@8:26AM I close out at 2887.50 by adjusting my stop down, locking in a +16-tick gain. Very similar move to yesterday.
What i liked:
- Making good decisions based on market context or so it seems.
What I didn't like:
- Not doing all the "homework" I would like.
- Wished I'd hung on to my original target of 2884.50, but 16-ticks is very good. small steps.
- don't know how to act decisively live as I do in sim.
Goals for tomorrow:
- start using python3/jupyter-notebooks for trading research
- track all the stats!
- read
- actually do all this stuff
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$450.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
2 trades of 30 entered.
I need (2550.00/28) = $91.07 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 18.0000 ticks
I would call this "Neutral-Day", as it looks like we don't really know what we want here. Initial-Balance (IB) 8.00 Points wide. Neither edge of the IB held the extreme today which is typical of Neutral-Days. There were still great opportunities with good trade management however. Closing-Range shows buyer support, price-action shows long pinbar from support combined with the single-print buying tail here looks bearish at first glance but that actuall shows we weren't ready to push lower yet. We were staying under the value area of Monday all day today, so mix of initiative and responsive activity.
Price-Action:
Needed better trade-management here, I think the price had only moved against me 2-ticks and I was panicked that Opening-Bell was going to reverse direction and erase 4-points of gains. So in the end it was probably ok to close when I did due to timing with OB.
Later on there was nice opportunity to take advantage of some interesting price-levels:
@7:21AM CST - Just dipped below the 50% line, E-mini S&Ps up 5.50, VIX at 14.04.
I hit my bonus yesterday by gaining at least 32-ticks this week so I can scale up to 2 contracts if I choose.
Also aware that I need to improve my trade-management.
@7:30AM WTH was that, CPI number coming in early? Huge spike up almost 4 points and then pushed right back down again. Price-movement getting a little chaotic. It seems to be struggling with that 2888.50 50% marke still after the spike, could be an opportunity to go short.
@7:37AM I get filled short 2 contracts @2887.50, and price plunges, almost perfect timing, i set a limit-order target for 2882.50 but things move so fast I adjust my stop down and get hit for a 13-tick gain to close at 2884.25.
That was nice, I still have time to trade some more. Need to bear in mind that I have to respect risk even though things went my way.
We are looking at OAIR today I think, and we are currently trading in the value area of yesterday's RTH/NYSE during this morning's active Opening-Call.
@8:20AM we are sitting on the 2886.00 level, and I'm noticing that there seemed to be support just underneath where I closed my earlier trade, I think I will potentially see that as an opportunity to go long if it re-tests and gets absorbed at that space again.
@8:27AM not sure why 2887.50 (where I went short earlier) seems to be a price-magnet now, maybe its just a transient anomaly, I would expect 2888.50 to be the spot where price settles since its the 50% fibo level unless 2887.50 is significant in some other way.
@8:33AM price is totally ranging around upper-segment of yesterday's value area searching for directional conviction. I am hoping we drop to @2884.00 and hit support. Nevermind, spiking up to ~2890.00, please hold.
price seems to be working its way down slowly, but I'm running out of time to trade. Maybe its good, I'm really fixated on this plan for some reason. Only take what the market gives you. Dear market, wouldn't mind becoming a full-time trader I am counting my blessings.
What i liked:
- I don't hate OAIR it had been good to me.
- Making good decisions based on market context or so it seems.
- I think I'm starting to notice that my successful trades require quick-reaction time without hesitation, this is a challenge I need to face when returning to live-trading. This is also consistent with timing vs information risk, ie. if I wait till there's an obvious opportunitiy its probably too late. so I must risk having less confirmation in exchange for better trade location (vs the alternative of more information but inferior trade-location). Downside-risk stays the same either way. I could have a clearer signal but get in late and be stopped out because of it, or I could jump in too early and get stopped out, but the potential upside is better for the better trade-location imo.
What I didn't like:
- Once again missed a reverse-rotation after closing my trade.
- I've been too tired in the evenings to write code for stats, need to change that.
Goals for tomorrow:
- start using python3/jupyter-notebooks for trading research
- track all the stats!
- read
- actually do all this stuff
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$775.00 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
3 trades of 30 entered.
I need (2225.00/27) = $82.41 per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 16.3333 ticks
), the bulls stepped aside for a bit. 
.