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Catch up time. Was trading and journaling but did not get a chance to post in here.
Sunday Feb 17th
Spent Sat & Sunday going through journal and reflecting on past 2 wks, writing rule cheat sheets, etc. Sunday is always a crap shoot depending on what news or issues went on the weekend.
1) CL 34B 1c Long, nice trigger and nice trend as seen on the higher-level time frame (left chart). It’s struggling to follow through. Stop out for loser at -7 ticks
2) CL larger retracement to 89ema (2B, ema bounce on 2 time frames), 1c Long. Stop out for a loser at -8 ticks
- BREAK after 2 losses according to rules -
3) ES 34B short, nice trigger. Fanning Ema’s. Wasn’t able to pick up anything .. Looser at + 5 ticks
4) CL Long, a bit late on the entry on breakout from channel. Fast move, Winner at +8 ticks
5) CL jumped back in a Long position after a few candle pullback and T2 sling-shot trigger; Winner at + 2 ticks
=================
6) CL T7 BTF (double top in direction of the trend; 1 c Long), Stop out for a loser at – 7 ticks.
- WAIT –
7) T10 (money on the floor) thought I got 6 ticks, ending a winner at +4 ticks (slippage)
8) T2 sling-shot, nice trigger. Target R1 pivot, Stop out for loser at – 7 ticks
9) 2B to the short side, Target is R1. Stop out for loser at – 7 ticks
The Good: I don’t hesitate to pull the trigger. I’m pretty consistent however not profitable.
The Bad: Bad % winner, and al most all my losers are larger than my winners.
The ugly: I am trading while the chart is not in a clear trend. I’ll need to do more sitting on my hands.
NY Session. I don’t usually trade NY session but I have a day off (family day in Canada) so let’s see. Leaving my Renko chart settings as is. Read some trading affirmations to get in the right phyc. Checked for red flags .. nothing there. Turn on NT8 at 8:45 am.
Watch and wait.
All on CL
1: 9:01 am 89B on CL, 1c Long .. Winner at + 6 ticks
2: T25 (2-5 candle pullback) trend continuation to the long side, stop out for a Loser at – 6 ticks
3: 2B early entry on 2nd candle (usually need to wait for white candle and 3rd candle to close). Not looking very good.. Also had divergence on 2 different time zones. Stop out for a Loser at – 7 ticks
4: T2 sling-short to the short side, winner at + 7 ticks. Ended being a very nice runner, should have stayed in longer.
5: another T2 to the short side, trailing SL. Stopped for a Loser at – 3 ticks
6: Went short, market reversed an Stopped for a Loser at – 7 ticks
7: Went short trailing SL, Stop out for a Loser at - 3 ticks
- BREAK after 3 losses – go for a walk, get a tea.
- Come back after a while, look at ES at 9:45am .. going sideways.
8: 10:56am Breakdown out of sideways chop, however I missed the entry and chased it. Bad entry and larger than normal stop loss .. Loser at -9 ticks.
9: T2 sling-shot, let it run until reversal candle , winner at + 5 ticks
10: T2/34B to the short side , stop loss above swing hi. Turned into Chop, Stopped for a loss at – 7 ticks
11: 34B Winner at + 5 ticks
The Good: Getting better at identifying chop (see charts)
The Bad: A few early entries, not a sweet spot trend. Again, my losses are bigger than most of my winners and I have a poor Win / loss ratio.
The Ugly: Trade # 8 Bad entry (too late .. chasing ). Super low volume due to President’s day. Should not have traded.
11 trades ; 4 winners & 7 losers
Net Result (after commission) -$ 230 / -23 ticks on CL.
Got home around 6:30pm, took a bit of time to “wind down”, snack and get set-up. Open NT8 around 7pm to look at my fav markets, ES & CL. ES seems to be bouncing however its headed towards resistance. CL also bouncing, looks as though a trend continuation. Up trend with no resistance.
Both markets moving slowly.
1) 7:33pm CL short 1 contract T2/34B, target is R1 or at least + 5 ticks. Stop out for a Loss at + 5 tick
2) 8:24pm CL 2B Short 1 contract ; Reversal for a Stop out for a loss at - 6 ticks
- BREAK -
3) CL T2/34B, went up top + 5 ticks so moving SL to BE. Went to +7, trying to go for a larger target, however getting a reversal candle so ended with a Win at + 4 ticks
4) CL T2/34B target is ~ 4-5 ticks, exited too early for a Winner at + 4 ticks
5) CL T25 (2-5 candle pullback) to the long side, Winner at + 2 Ticks.
6) ES 2B Failed to go long and reversed, Stopped for a loss at – 6 ticks
7) CL 34B went to + 5-6 ticks but reversed .. trailing SL. Stopped for a loss at -3 ticks
8) CL 34B/T2 failed, Stopped of a loss at -6 ticks. 34Ema was going flat, divergence was dropping hard.
9) CL 2B however I entered too early, not following my rules. I should have waiting for a white super scalper candle, and a 3rd candle close. I entered on 1st reversal candle. Loss for a – 6 ticks
- DONE –
The Good: Nothing good to note.
The Bad: Work distractions, actually work problems putting my off … should have closed everything down. However continued trading for further losses.
The Ugly:
RESULTS : Total 9 trades; 4 winners, 5 loosers.
Daily NET results after commissions = $ -277 / -26 ticks
7:00 pm , did push-ups .. visualize winning.
ES & CL not looking very good. Take a break and have a look a little later.
Start looking again at 7:30pm
Both markets moving slowly.
1/ ES 7:33pm 1c short, T10 money on the floor (start of a new trend), trail stop to BE, Winner at + 5 tick
------ Keep checking between ES & CL , wait for chop to stop
2) CL 8:33pm CL T2 Short 1 contract ; Reversal for a Stop out for a loss at - 7 ticks
- BREAK -
3) CL 8:39PM T2/34B, 1c to the short side, reversal to the long side, Stop for a Loser at - 6 ticks
4) CL 2B to the short side, target 8-10 ticks, Had a larger than usual stop .. Stopped for a loser at – 12 ticks
- DONE –
The Good: Patient waiting for set-ups .. during Chop
The Bad: Last trade was a larget than usual stop
The Ugly: RED RED RED
RESULTS : Total 4 trades; 1 winners, 3 loosers.
Daily NET results after commissions = $ -220 / -22 ticks
Got home pretty late due to a work thing. Crappy issue.
1/ 9:12 pm CL short 1c, was expecting a drop to R1 reversal for a stop out for a Loser at -6 ticks
---- Slow markets ------
2/ ES boucing withing a large pennant, tried to trade the range .. Stop out at BE. 0 ticks
---- Still very slow ------
- DONE –
The Good: nada . At least I did not over trade
The Bad: Slow markets
The Ugly: Bad mode due to a work problem
RESULTS : Total 2 trades; 1 BE, 1 loosers.
Daily NET results after commissions = $ -69 / -7 ticks
1/ ES 5:10 am 1c long , Bull Flag Breakout . winner at + 9 ticks
- DONE –
The Good: 1 good trade - FINALLY A LITTLE GREEN !!! --
The Bad: Too early. Second such Friday morning on a row. I need to quit my day job ASAP.
The Ugly: ---
RESULTS : Total 1 trades; 1 winner
Daily NET results after commissions = $ +108 / + 7 ticks
As far as Ema's are concerned :
I sometimes use the 8 ema as a trigger line, I.e. as an example of going long, I would buy if price closes above 8 ema, and sell if price closes below the 8 ema. The 8 ema can be used for trailing stop, but I usually will use fixed target or reversal candle to exit. Larger ema's such as the 34, and 89 are used basically to confirm the overall trend direction. In addition, 8 ema crossing the 34 is a sign of a trend change or start, and the 34 crossing the 89 are a sign of the new trend gaining momentum. As the ema's are fanning or spreading, this is a sign that the trend is gaining strength.
Scholastics :
I use the long term scholastic to tell me if the market is overbought / or oversold condition, and the short term scholastic (%K) used as sling-shot.
MACD :
Used for divergence. Settings are more sensitive than the standard settings.
Everything above is standard, but scholastics & MACD don't use the standard settings. The settings are shown in the text near the indicator. I few other things on the chart ... Those white candles are called super scalper candles. Those are reversal candles and for those to plot, there needs to be at least 3 candles and then the reversal candle. Then the second candle has to close higher or lower, and the 3rd candle has to tick higher or lower again. Those fractal dots or just to show up slightly better to aid in fractal breaks or to draw trend lines.
Candles are Renko, and you'll notice I also use a higher timeframe.
Total trades 41; Net Results -$550 (actual -698 see note below); Acct Status $8829
Average trades per day = 9.9; Max draw down -$757 ; Sharp ratio -1.51
No of (%) Winning days 1out of 4 = 16%
Max Winner $145; Average winner $53.66
Max Losing $170; Average loosing $65.94
(Note: Acct status is correct however I’m missing 1 or 2 trades which I have done on my laptop and somehow I cannot get the SIM accts to be in sync between my desktop and laptop)
==============================
Last week weekly recap, February week 3 (17th - 22):
Total trades 36; Net Results -$923 ; Acct Status $ 7863 (NT8 has -965, I had my commissions wrong)
Average trades per day = 8.7; Max draw down -$1074 ; Sharp ratio -1.48
No of (%) Winning days 1out of 4 = 16%
Overall profit factor 0.39
Max Winner $108; Average winner $50.53
Max Losing $124; Average loosing $65.52
===============================
Week 3 Reflection.
The Good: I am pretty consistent. I have not had any disastrous days exceeding my daily loss limit. I am disciplined with my journal and transparent. I am getting valuable screen time.
The Bad: I am not improving week over week s far in week 3. In fact even though results are similar, have fallen back a bit. I am no where near 50% winning days and to make matters worst,, my winner's are not as big as my losers
If you review the trades where you lost money, are you able to see if there is anything that could have helped you close the trade earlier? eg. is volume increasing once the support is broken or vise versa. Could you adjust your entries a bit to so your sl is tighter?
