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Zach's Log

  #111 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

-$31.64 in the Micro E-Mini ES.

It was an acceptable trading day. I did everything that I was supposed to do with the exception of one thing that I'll bring up soon. I meditated for a little under an hour this morning, because I'm starting to think that it's a waste of time to meditate for more than an hour, for the sake of itself, compared to being in a meditative state of mind while analyzing price and trading. I noticed that the meditative state of mind can vanish once you start trading, because you neurologically fall back into old patterns of behavior. I made the non-effort to consistently be in that state this morning while I was trading, and it's a much more practical thing to do. So, meditate in "increments" while you trade, and if you can manage it, keep that gentle deliberateness flowing and/or remind yourself to meditate. Besides the meditation, I had come up with 5 scenarios of possible price action around 7:40 this morning. As price changed slowly until 8:50, I updated each plan for the scenarios that needed to change, up until things got intense in the market.

At ~8:50 though, there was a huge influx of volume, and price was being ridiculously volatile. Price ended up passing two of my plans (separate plans) entry lines within the span of a couple minutes, so I told myself to hold off because I wouldn't survive the volatility. As the intensity died down, price was a couple ticks away from one of the entry lines and I impulsively thought it would be a good idea to enter the next time price touched or passed it (this is the battle between the intellect and impulse/emotion). Things were lined up, but I conceived of these things too quickly to make a truly rational decision. I wanted to take advantage of the tail end of that volume, but in hindsight, this was simply an impulsive trade that I should not have taken. I entered short, and quickly got stopped out for a 3 point loss. Instant regret. Lesson: Don't trade when price is incredibly volatile, or better yet, control yourself. I've made this mistake a couple of times in the past. I distinctly remember doing something similar in the ES months ago. I won't make this mistake again.

I obviously had fallen out of my meditative state. I think I did as soon as I saw price go wild, to be honest. I was trying to find a way to take advantage of it, even while knowing it was a bad idea, and got burned. Had I truly listened to my intelligent self, if I had done the harder thing and not entered, I would be happier with my performance today. Well, today is definitely not all negative. After that trade, I got my head together and looked for another reasonable opportunity. Here's a SS of price after I had found that opportunity and entered the trade:



I noticed that price failed to breach ~2883 multiple times, and because of that (in my mind), there was a response to the downside. When the downside failed to continue, price was bought back up dramatically, and that's when I decided that there was enough "evidence" for me to feel confident in going long. So that's what I did! I was going to hold the trade until I hit my profit target or until I hit my stop loss, and my stop was hit.

First trade revisited: My first trade was a poor trade. I realize that just because a condition for one of my plans was met, doesn't necessarily mean that it's a good idea to follow through with that plan (the anti to this was the rationalization underpinning the impulsive trade). In this case, following through with that plan was a bad idea because of the insane volatility. Had things played out as I had originally anticipated, of course I would've followed through then, especially. But things went against what I had even imagined to see, which tells me that I'm being too ambiguous in what conditions I'm willing to trade in. So now it is firmly established that it is totally wrong to trade in, or to take advantage of this kind of volatility. It's not exactly that I didn't know this before by the way, it's that my ideas now in how to act are not clearly defined, given that I'm trading differently than I used to, and that I'm trading a different market.

The second trade was good. I think I analyzed what was going on in a solid manner. I held the trade like I was supposed to.

I had written this down immediately after losing my second trade: "How do I determine if it's a day worth trading?" - By watching and missing some opportunities early. Trade later on.

So this is where I'm left off for tomorrows trading:
- Be patient in the morning while analyzing price. Determine if today is a day worth trading, given the very recent history of price action. How does price act when volume picks up? Have there been or are there a lot of fake-outs? Is price ridiculously volatile like it was yesterday?
- Insane volatility invalidates a plan. Don't enter when a condition is met, if price is too hectic.
- Tomorrow would be the second day in a row of you holding a trade. Don't break the habit.
- Always do the harder thing.

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  #112 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

+$27.11 in the Micro E-Mini ES. +$1.25 trading it live (lol).



I had a really hard time getting into my meditation this morning. I had a dream about someone last night, and then when I woke up this morning, they messaged me. I told them about it, and I was elated and giddy about the whole thing, even though considering it rationally it was by pure coincidence. Anyways, after that event, I tried my best to meditate but was simply being too much of a goof, so I went straight to analyzing price and coming up with scenarios. In the process of coming up with these scenarios, I looked at my live account balance and noticed I lost a chunk of money. This is NT's "inactivity fee". They took $25 out of my account- fair enough, fine, it's in the fine print. So I thought to myself for a second and realized that it would make more sense to take a trade in the MES and potentially lose a small amount, compared to definitely losing $25 every month for not trading. I determined what was 2% of $472 (the money left in my live acc.), and that gave me a ~2 point wide stop (I rounded up, I think). Given that it would be unrealistic to trade with that size of a stop at or around the open, I decided to act on the next opportunity in the MES. I think it was almost 8am at this time. Long story short, I got in a trade, it went for me a couple ticks, and it turned back, and by the time I closed I was a tick positive for a dollar gain. It felt just like SIM, because I didn't care about losing that money, and I didn't care about making money either. The goal was to stave off the inactivity fee.

Anyways, by the time volume and volatility picked up, I had firmly established what I was going to do in different situations. My bias was long at first, but the ease at which price passed the lowest level changed my mind. I liked the way price was moving at 9am, it was consistent to the downside. I determined it was a good day to trade, and after more confirmation/after more pretty price movement, I went short on a bearish breakout. I think I got in at 9:07, and got stopped out a minute or two after the open for a 3 point loss. Afterwards, I reminded myself of my weaknesses and what I'm good at (the result of me was right in front of my face), and because of this, I thought it was in my best interest to go short again but with better trade location. I couldn't definitively decide where I would enter, so I ended up entering short on some strong momentum to the downside. I'm glad I did this (I trusted myself and took the risk), and I'm especially glad that I held the trade until it's completion. +8.75 point gain.

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  #113 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711


-$17.07 in the Micro E-Mini ES.

It was a fantastic day to trade in the Micro ES. Unfortunately, I just wasn't up to the task. I woke up very late at 9am because I couldn't get to sleep last night. I remember thinking at 3am that I probably wouldn't take a trade in the morning because I wouldn't be in tip top shape, but obviously I changed my mind. Anyways, I got to analyzing price without any meditation at all, and since price was already rolling, I had missed my shot to come up with multiple scenarios of price action. My process was totally thrown off, but after noticing some nice movement in the MES, I thought that I could, and should trade. I jumped straight to #3 of my process:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trading Process:
1. Meditate for 40 minutes.
2. Analyze charts, come up with multiple price action scenarios at 7:40am and create plans for them (entries and exits).
3. When volatility picks up in the market, determine if it's worth trading. This is subject to change; price action may behave differently an hour after extremely volatile conditions. Make this judgement by taking imaginary trade(s), if you're on the ball, go for it.
4. Hold those trades no matter what. Stop loss or profit target only.

Most of the work I do is pre-trade. Sometimes those plans I think of get invalidated by unanticipated price moves, and if the market is "tradable" (as in, I like the way it moves) then, I have to improvise and create another one or more while trading. This process fits me pretty well overall, because there's a lot of planning involved, and I don't have to do much after I'm done planning except enter. It definitely suits my personality.

Also, On top of trading price scenarios, I will definitely be trading double tops.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since it is Friday, I initially assumed price was going to be less volatile, and that there would be less volume overall. Some nice move changed my mind and lead me to take some imaginary trades, and I was right 2 out of 3 that I took. Given the nice little trends, the consistency, and the moderate volume, it really was a good day to trade. So I came up with some plans on the fly, and there was a bearish break-out opportunity that I was ready to trade, but when the time came, I choked and didn't enter. That trade would've been a winner! I was off mentally, I was the old me that hesitated to enter trades right then. I don't like that.

I wasn't discouraged by it because I acknowledged my current state of mind. Just because you miss a single opportunity, doesn't mean you have to be done for the day. So I planned for the next move. I was anticipating a bearish continuation. Time passed, price met my conditions and I was in the trade:



Outcome:



I sold at the bottom! I didn't expect todays price action to be so similar to yesterdays. After this trade, I thought that maybe price really would follow in yesterdays footsteps, so I had come up with a plan to catch the bullish rotation. When the time came to enter long, I choked once again and did not enter. Of course it would've been profitable:



I haven't had a day where I hesitated on entry in ages. So to avoid this kind of thing from happening again, I'll be sure not to deviate at all from my process. If something comes up that makes it so I can't practice my process, I simply won't trade on that day. There is a mental benefit through my process and through meditation, and that is from ritualistically establishing to myself that the outcome doesn't matter. This is huge for me and this does wonders for my attitude while trading. Unfortunately, I was on auto-pilot this morning and traded the way I used to.

Lesson: Practice the process in full. Don't deviate from it. Also, you're prone to make more mistakes while running on less sleep. This is a fact. If things happen outside of trading that would impact your performance, just don't trade that day!

Anyways, I'm feeling pretty zen about all of this right now. Today is an event to learn from.

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  #114 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

MES Trading

On my 1st trade I lost 5 points, and on my 2nd trade I gained 12 points. +7 points to end the day.

During-trade-SS of the second trade:



End result:



I am very pleased with my performance today. I practiced my process to a t. Once again though (for the millionth time), I entered the market too early. I started analyzing the market at 7:40, and 20 minutes or so while in the process of coming up with possible price scenarios, I saw a solid move to the downside. I interpreted this in a way that made me think it was acceptable to enter early. These pre-open flashes of volume and volatility are deceitful, in that sometimes, price will trend quite a bit and then volume will cease, and if you entered, you'll be stuck in a position until the open. This is my experience at least. The thing is though, sometimes volume and volatility consistently moves at a tradable rate up until the open, then v&v increase dramatically like it usually does. This kind of conditions brings plenty of trading opportunities, and that's the reason that drives me to enter the market early. With that being said, I find myself being put in the same position over and over again, and it's costing me points.

I need to be patient at 8:00-8:30 up until the open. I often forget that there's probably going to be plenty of opportunities later on. Obviously at the root of this issue is FOMO, so my FOMO needs to be addressed before I start trading. I will remember this tomorrow morning. If it's the case that the MES is regularly trading with decent volume between 8 and 9, that's when I'll start trading early again. For now, I'll practice patience then.

Another thing: I really like using a wide stop loss. Even though I lost 5 points at once, I think my stop was in a great place, because it was a place where it was difficult for price to reach. I was in the 1st trade for 40 minutes or so, and it took 8 minutes after the open for me to get stopped out. In more volatile conditions, I'll be using as wide of a stop as to what's reasonable given market context.

Today also marks the first day ever that I've held a trade for 12 points. I'm having next to no difficulty holding trades and getting stopped out as of late, because I accept my process. It jives with me. I'll continue doing exactly what I'm doing.

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  #115 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Barchart.com
Trading: Everything, it all tastes like chicken
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Congrats on a good trading day! Plan your work, work your plan.... as they say.

~vmodus

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  #116 (permalink)
 
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 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
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Well done Zachary!

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  #117 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

On my 1st trade, I lost 3.75 points. On my 2nd trade, I gained 4 points. +1 tick to finish the day.

Unfortunately though, I broke my most important rule. I closed my second trade manually, instead of letting my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did this because I was in the trade for 1 hour, volume was incredibly low/price was slow, and price was testing a new high at the time and I didn't think it would breach that level, given the low volume. Plus, closing the position would've taken care of my first loss. So all of those factors together beat my discipline to hold the trade, and I ended up closing when I shouldn't have. Because of this, I missed an opportunity to finish trading with a 5.25 point gain:



Even though I came out break-even for the day, I lost in the sense that I violated my process and my trading principals- but making a big deal out of things seems to make things worse for me, so tomorrow I'll just start where I left off (I went ~5 days without making this mistake). This lapse in optimal trading behavior is as expected as a pull-back in a trend, so I won't beat myself up too hard about it and I won't cut myself too much slack.

Anyways, my first trade was OK. I remembered what I posted yesterday about entering too early, so I waited until after 9am to trade. I got in short around 9:10 during relatively strong bearish momentum that satisfied one of my plans entry condition, but when I pressed sell, I got two pop-ups from NT. Apparently I had done something wrong, and within a minute or two I discovered that instead of putting my stop at ~2824, I had put it at 2624. My profit target was at 2812, and I went short, so there was an error and my stop loss and profit target didn't go through. I decided to just exit when price passed what would've been my stop loss and profit target. Long story short, I got "stopped out". I now see this as an irresponsible thing to do, because it was totally possible for price to surpass my manual stop by points at the open. I won't do this again- if I ever mess up my stop loss like I did today, I'm just going to get out of the trade.

Another thing, even though I entered later than usual at 9:10, volume was still low after that surge of bearish momentum. I'll be trading at and/or after the open tomorrow if I like what I see, plain and simple.

Todays lessons:
- Pay closer attention to what you type while making an ATM strategy.
- Stick to your process. Hold your trades no matter what. The main reason you exited early was because you re-became attached to the outcome. Had it not mattered, you wouldn't have made that mistake.


It would be in my best interest to remind myself while I'm trading, that the outcome doesn't matter. I do this at the beginning of my sessions and it's very helpful, but the effect seems to go away with time and the old shitty trader in me comes out. Price action can pull you in emotionally, even just for a second and even while in an optimal state, and that second of auto-pilot/non-deliberation is the second you're most likely to make a mistake. I need to find ways to buttress my performance mind so that I can operate from it continuously. Maybe walking away like I used to do while in a trade would help.

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  #118 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

MES Trading

On my first trade, I lost 4 points. On my second trade, I gained 9.5 points. 5.5+ points on the day:



As you can see, I got creative with my chart background. It's definitely corny, but I gotta say, it really helped me out today. It serves as a constant reminder to hold trades, and I couldn't imagine working against it. I would have to totally go out of my way to violate this rule, now that I have this line staring me in the face. So yeah, even though it's ugly, it's useful. I'll take off my training wheels once I have a better track record.

As for my first trade today, I had established to myself yesterday that I would only trade after the open. Had I of kept quiet, price probably wouldn't have made bearish moves before the open this morning. Anyways, there was an internal battle between my discretionary judgment and my rules, and finally, my rules won. I waited until after the open to trade, and I'm glad I did. The thing is though, that battle rattled me up some because I had so much anticipation for a bearish break-out even before 9:30 that I wasn't thinking straight, and I was seeing many entry opportunities that came after my initial bearish plan became junk. So I was kind of up in the air as far as my entry was concerned, but I still had faith in a bearish break-out. After I had calmed down some (not completely), I came up with a good entry and stop loss, along with a profit target, and eventually executed when the time seemed right. I got stopped out for a 4 point loss, in relatively brutal conditions (in retrospect, I should've waited longer to get a better feel for price).. These pre-open moves, or price action that's on the edge of a break-out 5 minutes before the open, causes a lot of anxiety from participants even 10 minutes after the open. It inspires noise and irrational behavior, in some cases. In others, it's potentially very profitable.

After that, I just waited and watched for another opportunity. Price was struggling to go in either direction. But, with time, there was a moment where price was dipping down, making available good entry locations for shorts. As price was creeping down at 10:13am (you can see in the SS above), an absolutely huge spike of buyers came in. I kept my hand off the mouse and waited for price to settle down, and when it did, I came up with a bullish plan. I entered long (always 1 contract) at the second bullish breakout and waited some more until my profit target was hit- except when price hit my profit target price multiple times, I didn't get closed out of the position. So I closed it manually. No shame here, I did everything that I was supposed to do. I did well today.

Once this kind of behavior becomes habitual and I become consistent, I'll start increasing my risk by re-entering the market on killer days and/or set longer profit targets, and maybe bump my size up to 2 contracts. It's all contextual, though.

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  #119 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

I'm going to try my hand at live trading the MNQ tomorrow morning. I want to see how I hold up under pressure, and I'm willing to lose some money to do so. I'll be trading exactly the way I have been trading, which means I'll come up with price scenarios and hold my trade(s) until I get stopped out or until I hit my profit target. It's been too long since I've had lengthy and real exposure, and I'm very interested in contrasting how I feel while trading live, to how I feel trading in SIM. I suspect the difference will be small because I already take SIM very seriously, but I could be wrong about this. We'll see tomorrow, if there's any opportunities worth taking.

I'm especially curious about how I'll react to holding my trade(s) for what could possibly be an excruciatingly long time. Honestly, win or loss, if I can stand to trade my best price scenario and let the trade play out, I'll be satisfied tomorrow. If I become too drained after live performance, I won't bother trading the MES.

Anyways, I look forward to tomorrow! I'll do my absolute best.

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  #120 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711


MNQ Live Trading

I took one trade this morning and gained 14.5 points (+$28.50). A 6% gain:



I woke up this morning and instantly remembered that I was live trading today. There was some anticipatory anxiety lingering after remembering this that I managed pretty well through my meditation at the start of my process, and on top of that, I realized before trading that analyzing charts and coming up with price scenarios and planning for them is personally soothing- so I spent more time doing this. Almost paradoxically, planning took my mind off of the real risk that I was going to take, because I became enveloped in what the market was doing and what I could do about it, rather than focused on how I could lose money. Don't get me wrong, live trading was more intense than SIM trading, but not overwhelmingly so. I owe this to mindfulness, and to not caring about the outcome of the trade.

Anyways, I checked the MNQ at 7:51 this morning and noted that volatility was decent enough to trade. I know that my 1st trades or my earlier trades are usually losers, so I established that I was going to wait until after the open to enter, if I was going to. Price action was somewhat tempting up until then, and it even breached some of my plans entry lines (2 plans became junk), but I ended up doing the right thing and was patient. There's usually more opportunities later.

The open came. A couple minutes before the open though, price looked as if it was going to make lower lows to complete a double top-like pattern in the hourly chart. Instead of continuing to the downside though, price reversed maybe 5 minutes after the open, dramatically. It was absolutely taking off to the upside- but I knew I couldn't trade this because it was too volatile for my stop loss width. I had to wait, so I did. Eventually, around 9:50, price was testing higher highs and I had already set up a bullish break-out plan earlier so I was ready to take advantage of this move. Price crossed my entry line, I entered with a 5 point stop, and price ran up to my profit target with a minor pullback in-between. There was a moment where I could've done the wrong thing and manually closed the position, but I couldn't bring myself to.

This is the best trade I've ever taken. This is the best trading week I've ever had, too. I'll continue doing exactly what I'm doing, because it seems to be working.

I will say though, I did leave an awful lot of money on the table. I stopped trading immediately after my target got filled, because I didn't want to push my luck. I'll have to learn to stick around.

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Last Updated on December 31, 2019


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